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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 29-11-2021 2:21pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,292 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note


    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Winter 2021/2022.


    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.


    Thanks

    With only a day left to go in Autumn I felt the time was right to open the Winter short range model thread. After a very chilly weekend the final 2 days of Autumn will end on a mild note. We begin Winter on Wednesday and it will turn colder again as winds plunge down from the north.

    On Wednesday and Thursday temperatures may struggle to get much past 5C so it will feel fairly chilly in those northerly winds.

    Temperatures will stay fairly cool between Wednesday and Saturday particularly over Leinster and Ulster with temperatures struggling in single digits with a chilly north-west airflow up to Saturday.

    Rainfall amounts look mostly light across the east and south with about 10mm of rain expected between now and Saturday but western and northern areas could see quite a bit more than this, possibly up 50mm of rainfall there close to the coasts. From Wednesday precipitation could turn a bit wintry across high ground particularly in the north-west.


    Post edited by Gonzo on


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,637 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Will keep an eye on this deepening Low crossing Ireland later Fri/ early Sat . Currently looks windy in the SW,S and quite wet and possibly even wintry. Been hinting at something on and off over the last couple of days. The Jet adding a bit of oomph perhaps.








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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Charts are all over the place for the next week. It must be to do with the jet. Some charts showing storms near us others are like repeat of Arwen others wintry weather in the North.

    None are showing much dry weather so it will be wet. And probably windy. But how windy.

    Currently 70 to 140kph range. Does that mean Tuesday will end up being 110kph?



  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭ Donegal Ken


    The most likely track at the moment is tracking close to the west and northwest coast of Ireland based on the overall model outlook. Alot of swapping and changing to come this weekend. Will be at least later Sunday until we have a fairly certain picture of the situation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    GFS overnight has it further south with a very low pressure reading

    Would be watching the barometers that day



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    It will likely shift South a bit more and fill a bit more too. However some really strong winds likely and cold easily go above 120kph in worst areas. As with previous storms in Sligo 120kph gusts seems to be the tipping point where we go from minor damage to widespread power cuts and felled trees and slates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Not liking the ECM output (0z) as it puts us into a mild zonal flow following the storm. The storm though takes an unusual track, develops to our W, tracks up to our NW and then dives to our SE. A most unusual track for an Atlantic storm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Met Eireann only mentioning Windy for Tuesday. I assume they will change the details nearer the time. Surely at least a yellow warning will be needed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,424 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Re Cork

    -Very deep low sub 960

    - Gale force Easterly

    - High tide

    - Torrential rain

    - Huge swell

    Means only one thing, if it were to play out as projected. IF!



  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭ Donegal Ken


    Most likely scenario with Met Éireann will be a weather Advisory on Saturday at the earliest then a status yellow wind warning for places if there still is uncertainty and around 24 hours out upgraded warnings issued then. Unless there's a stonewall agreement on Sunday the might not jump ahead issuing a early warning. Still lots of changes will happen over the next 48 hours. If the GFS is right it may only be a low impact storm with yellow warnings for coastal areas of the south and southwest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Looks a shift north on the GFS



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Latest GFS likely bringing 130kph to Connemara and 120kph in many Atlantic districts. ...if it were to pass.

    Still think it can miss us South or North or fill.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    GFS putting it west of Ireland now and winds weaker





  • Registered Users Posts: 1,815 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    ICON is alarming, with 150kmh gusts along the west coast.


    MOST MODELS HAVE IT IMPACTING Ireland directly apart from the GFS.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,815 ✭✭✭ squarecircles




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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    ICON has a very tight gradient onto the west coast( Galway Bay) in particular and then has that pull south down across Ireland or just east of Ireland



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,475 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Weather Advisory for Ireland

    A spell of wet and very windy weather is expected to impact Ireland on Tuesday 7th and Wednesday the 8th December, with potential impacts including travel disruption and coastal flooding. There is also the potential for wintry precipitation on Tuesday night and Wednesday which may lead to further travel disruptions.


    This advisory will be updated on Saturday while warnings will likely be issued on Sunday.


    for more details see: https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

    Valid: 16:15 Friday 03/12/2021 to 18:00 Wednesday 08/12/2021

    Issued: 16:16 Friday 03/12/2021



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭ Cork2021


    The wintry part is catching me, hadn’t seen much on model to suggest it



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Ya wet snow after the wind. Hurray. Wind gusty tonight. Must be warming up for Tuesday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭ Cork2021


    Alls quite here…. Don’t know is that a good thing or bad…



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,292 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Most discussion about Tuesdays wind event is taking place here https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058221056/potential-significant-windstorm-tuesday-december-7th-8th#latest

    As for what happens after next Tuesday is terms of our weather is a bit of a mystery right now, everything will depend on the tracking of the low pressure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭ Cork2021




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,637 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    That feature that pauldry mentioned on the Winter thread in looking deeper and looking a lot windier now on the latest runs .

    Can see it is being powered up by the jet, fast moving and deepening rapidly, moves through in a few hours but could be very windy for a time along Atlantic coasts especially the W and NW, bit of a difference atm in strength but ECM is about an average I would think of the models, currently looking like probably tipping around 100km/h along the coasts in the W and NW, blustery overland for a few hours. Will keep an eye on the track.

    Looks extremely strong and damaging when it makes it to the Hebrides later Sunday night/ early Monday morning but again going through in a few hours.








This discussion has been closed.
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