December 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2021 2:12pm #1

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Monday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 9 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck !!

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2021 5:33pm

MTC _______ 5.9 _ 15.3 _ -5.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 6.2, 3.3 _ yes Knock

Normal _____ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5, 2.5 _ No way Jose

John mac · 29-11-2021 7:50pm

John mac _______ 5.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.2 _ 102 _ 98 ___ 11.2, 3.2 _No

(should be Thursday 2nd..);)

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Monday 2nd,

Bsal · 29-11-2021 8:04pm

Bsal_____ 5.6 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 92 ___ 9.0, 3.5 _ No

pauldry · 29-11-2021 8:41pm

Pauldry____ 5.1_ 14.5_ -6.0 _ 130 _ 90 ___ 10.4, 3.8 _ No

Danno · 29-11-2021 9:38pm

Danno _______ 2.7 _ 13.9 _ -10.7 _ 85_ 145 ___ 1.4, -6.7 _ yes Ballyhaise

sryanbruen · 29-11-2021 10:34pm

sryanbruen _______ 4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.9 _ 115 _ 90 ___ 3.8, -0.7 _ No

esposito · 30-11-2021 12:07am

Esposito _______ 5.3_ 13.9_ -6.7_ 95_ 130 ___ 5.4, -3.8_ No

200motels · 30-11-2021 1:49am

200MOTELS 5.2_ 13.9_ -5.9 _ 112_ 91 ___ 8.2, 2.1 _ No

kindredspirit · 30-11-2021 6:08pm

Kindred Spirit 5.4° ___ 14.5 ___ -5.1 ___ 115 ___ 100 ___ 11.0, 4.0, No.

sunflower3 · 30-11-2021 9:12pm

Sunflower3....4.8° ___ 15.0__ -5.8 ___ 105 ___ 90 ___ 8.2, 0.5, Not on this island....

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2021 9:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118241481#Comment_118241481

That error might go back a few annual cycles because I just block-copied the last December opening post and did remember to change the day of the week for the first, but if I've done that several times then that Monday was last correct in 2019. Hmm.

Well since I'm posting I am going to revise my IMT to 4.9 (from 5.9), I am a bit more optimistic about the cold start now. So I will also revise MIN to -6.7 now.

Tae laidir · 30-11-2021 9:27pm

Tae laidir _____ 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -5.4 _ 103 _ 100 ___ 10.1, 3.5 _ No

mr.stonewall · 30-11-2021 9:30pm

Mr Stonewall_____5.1___14.2___-6.4___112___96__8.7, 2.3, No

Gonzo · 30-11-2021 10:38pm

Gonzo _______ 4.3 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 112 _ 86 ___ 6.4, 1.5 _ No

appledrop · 30-11-2021 11:53pm

Appledrop__4.7_14.5_-5.3_100_105_8.0, 1.0_No way Jose

Joe Public · 01-12-2021 12:14am

Joe Public ____ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ -6.9 _ 130 _ 88 ___ 7.8, 2.5 _ snowball's chance in hell ( no )

dacogawa · 01-12-2021 12:41am

Dacogawa _______ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -10.5 _ 170 _ 80 ___ 3.1, -4.4 _ yes - Casement

I've got to go for the Hail Mary after that year! 😂

Artane2002 · 01-12-2021 12:56am

Artane2002_____ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -5.2 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 7.3, 0.5 _ No

Jpmarn · 01-12-2021 1:21am

Jpmarn _____ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 160 _ 90 ___ 8.3, 2.5 _ No

dasa29 · 01-12-2021 1:32am

Dasa29 _______ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 95_ 105 ___ 5.0, -4.0 _ No

bazlers · 01-12-2021 6:43am

Bazler _____ 4.1 _ 11.2 _ -8.2 _ 112 _ 90___ -3.5 _ 2.5_Yes knock.

mrskinner · 01-12-2021 7:09am

Skinner _____6_____15____-5_____100____100____9, 3, No

DOCARCH · 01-12-2021 7:16am

DOCARCH _______ 6.1 _ 14.8 _ -4.3 _ 090 _ 095 __ 7.2, -0.8 __ No

waterways · 01-12-2021 9:58am

waterways 5.3 ___ 15.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 123 ___ 103 ___ 7.0, 3.9 No

adam240610 · 01-12-2021 12:28pm

adam240610 4.8__14.9__-6__100_88__8__2 no

(So I wrote this at 11:30pm but never pressed the post button...)

BLIZZARD7 · 01-12-2021 3:40pm

BLIZZARD7_____3.3 _ 12.7 _ -13.7 _ 90 _ 130 __ 0.7, -5.3 _ Yes, Casement

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2021 5:18am

Table of forecasts for December 2021

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub(A) 25th _snow

DOCARCH ___ (-2) _______ 6.1 _ 14.8 _ -4.3 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 7.2 ,-0.8 _ No

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _______ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 9.0 , 3.0 _ No

Tae laidir _______________ 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -5.4 _ 103 _ 100 ___10.1 , 3.5 _ No

Bsal ___________________ 5.6 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 092 ___ 9.0 , 3.5 _ No

Joe Public _______________5.6 _ 14.4 _ -6.9 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8 , 2.5 _ No

Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 14.5 _ -5.1 _ 115 _ 100 ___11.0 , 4.0 _ No

waterways ___ (-2) _______5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 7.0 , 3.9 _ No

Artane2002 _____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -5.2 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 7.3 , 0.5 _ No

Esposito ________________ 5.3 _ 13.9 _ -6.7 _ 095 _ 130 ___ 5.4 ,-3.8 _ No

___ Normal ______________5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5 , 2.5 _ No

John mac _______________ 5.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___11.2 , 3.2 _ No

200motels ______________ 5.2 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 112 _ 091 ___ 8.2 , 2.1 _ No

Pauldry _________________5.1 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___10.4 , 3.8 _ No

Mr Stonewall ____________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.4 _ 112 _ 096 ___ 8.7 , 2.3 _ No

___ Con Sensus _________ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 096 ___ 7.8 , 2.0 _ No

Jpmarn _________________5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 160 _ 090 ___ 8.3 , 2.5 _ No

Dasa29 _________________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 5.0 ,-4.0 _ No

M. T. Cranium ____________4.9 _ 15.3 _ -6.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 6.2 , 3.3 _ yes Knock

Mickey Mantle __ (new --) __4.9 _ 12.3 _-10.1 _ 099 _ 100 ___ 5.1 _-1.2 _ yes

Sunflower3 ______________4.8 _ 15.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 8.2, 0.5 _ No

sryanbruen _____________ 4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.9 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 3.8 ,-0.7 _ No

adam240610 __ (-2) ______4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 088 ___ 8.0 , 2.0 _ No

Dacogawa ______________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _-10.5_ 170 _ 080 ___ 3.1 , -4.4 _ yes Casement

Appledrop ______________ 4.7 _ 14.5 _ -5.3 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 8.0 , 1.0 _ No

Gonzo _________________ 4.3 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 112 _ 086 ___ 6.4 , 1.5 _ No

Bazler ______ (-1) _______4.1 _ 11.2 _ -8.2 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 2.5 ,-3.5 _ Yes Knock

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ______ 3.3 _ 12.7 _-13.7_ 090 _ 130 ___ 0.7 , -5.3 _ Yes Casement

Danno _________________2.7 _ 13.9 _-10.7_ 085 _ 145 ___ 1.4 ,-6.7 _ yes Ballyhaise

____________________________________________

25 forecasts, consensus is fairly close to normal with a slight bias towards extra precipitation.

Only five foresee snow over 24th-25th but another six foresee dry frosty conditions.

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2021 4:38am

Welcome MIckey Mantle, have added your forecast to the table, as a new entrant I have waived the late penalty as it would have no actual effect on anything, and as per normal procedures Con Sensus remains what it was from regular contest entrants in this last month of the year. If you decide to stay on, then you're fully entered into the winter part of the four seasons for next year also, but I would then take five points off your score in that.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2021 5:42pm

After the first week of December ...

IMT on 5.4 C, which is 0.7 below normal for the period.

MAX 12.2 (not tracked carefully though) and MIN not tracked yet, somewhere around -1 to -2 perhaps.

PRC 142% of normal.

SUN 131.3% of normal (788/600).

Windy at times.

Danno · 09-12-2021 12:28am

Geez, I'm going out on a limb with that cold forecast. 😜

Joe Public · 10-12-2021 11:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118293611#Comment_118293611

OK for Iceland ❄️

Jpmarn · 12-12-2021 10:06am

MAX 14.4 recorded at Moorepark 11th.

Joe Public · 14-12-2021 12:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308274#Comment_118308274

14.4 is a nice number

pauldry · 14-12-2021 2:15pm

Max prob 14c now

Rainfall very little till New Year as weather goes dead.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2021 7:05pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 5.8 C, the past week averaged 6.2 which is 0.5 above normal. For both the month and the past week, Shannon has been running notably higher than the rest, the two-week mean there is 7.0, the average for the other four was 5.4 C.

MAX 14.4 and MIN -2.1 (14th at Mullingar)

PRC 105% of normal, this past week rather dry at 67% of normal. With quite a dry forecast it has to be added that we have only guaranteed an outcome of around 50% with that 105% in the first two weeks. If the rest of the month managed as little as 25% then the outcome would be 60%.

SUN is now at 115% with this past week very close to normal (99% from 595/600).

Current GFS prediction for 25th is for a cool and overcast pattern with temperatures rather steady around 5 C with no strong indications for snow anywhere on 24th or 25th. The GEM on the other hand was colder with east winds offering some hope of local snowfalls. The 12z ECM had not reached the 25th by the time I posted this, may edit in something from that later.

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2021 4:14pm

After three weeks ...

IMT now 6.0, the third week average was 6.3 which is 0.8 above normal. Guidance has been all over the place recently but some suggestions of a very mild end to the month, this could end up a bit higher possibly.

MAX 14.4, MIN -2.1. Neither of these are settled yet.

PRC at 73 per cent of normal after a dry week (only 8% on average); however, today will anchor what looks to be a more normal sort of week so that the outcome for the month may be closer to normal than this report.

SUN at about 113 per cent of normal, with this past week 110.5 per cent (663/600) despite Cork being fully overcast. This average could slump a bit given the forecasts of mostly cloudy skies ahead.

The current numerical output for Dublin on the 25th from GFS 06z show the max and min to be 8 and 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2021 9:05am

Good morning, hope you had an enjoyable Christmas. Dublin had a narrow range of temperatures, 6.3 to 8.9, and of course the other part of the forecast was NO. Will post the scoring for the bonus in a few minutes, looks like the closest forecasts were MrSkinner and Bsal at 9.0 for the max, and Kindred Spirit was closest on the minimum at 4.0; nobody in the field quite foresaw such a narrow range of temperature, two had 2.9 and 3.1 between their high and their low (that being MTC and waterways) but we were looking for highs closer to the actual low. Will post the full scoring in a few minutes.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2021 10:25am

Here's a summary of the BONUS scoring then ... all add three points as shown, except those names with an asterisk who predicted YES for the snow portion. They remain at the points level. The groups at different points levels are separated in part by error differentials which were very similar in the larger groups near the top.

Scoring is based on your total error for max and min added together. That is what the numbers in brackets denote, max error then min error. Everyone in the field was at least somewhat below the actual average of 7.6, all were below the minimum and most were below the maximum.

10 pts (to 13) __ Bsal (0.1, 2.8) MrSkinner (0.1, 3.3) Pauldry (1.5, 2.5) MrStonewall (0.2, 4.0) Normal (0.4, 3.8)

9 pts (to 12) __ waterways (1.9, 2.4) Tae laidir (1.6, 2.8) Kindred Spirit (2.1, 2.3) JPmarn (0.6, 3.8)

8 pts (to 11) __ Joe Public (1.1, 3.8) 200motels (0.7, 4.2) Adam240610 (0.9, 4.3) John mac (2.3, 3.1) Con Sensus (1.1, 4.3)

7 pts (to 10) __ M.T. Cranium* (2.7, 3.0), Appledrop (0.9, 5.3), sunflower3 (0.7, 5.8)

6 pts (to 9) ___ Gonzo (2.5, 4.8), Artane2002 (1.6, 5.8)

5 pts (to 8) ___ DOCARCH (1.8, 7.1)

4 pts (to 7) ___ Mickey Mantle* (3.8, 7.5) sryanbruen (5.1, 7.0)

3 pts (to 6) ___ Esposito (3.5, 10.1) Dasa29 (3.9, 10.3)

2 pts (to 5) ___ Bazler*(6.4, 9.8) dacogawa* (5.8, 10.7)

1 pt (to 4 ) ___ BLIZZARD7* (8.2, 11.6) Danno* (7.5, 13.0)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Now, it would appear that MIN is unlikely to drop much as tonight will apparently be the last chance for a frost, the MIN is already -2.1 and I can't see it going much lower than that. If we need minimum progression for MIN scoring, then the top scores would go to Bsal (-4.0) and DOCARCH (-4.3) with MrSkinner at -5.0. Unless the MIN drops to -3.8 we will need minimum progression anyway; the only thing that could change would be an outcome of -3.8 to -4.5 which would trigger the reduced version with some raw score at or above 18/20. Anything lower than -4.5 would probably negate the need for it.

MAX could actually go up from 14.4 and the IMT is likely to drift up a bit too, most likely finish 6.5. That would necessitate a minor boost, so the scoring will be from 6.3 if the outcome is 6.3 or higher.

There were heavy rainfalls at several of our grid locations yesterday; that may push PRC up close to normal or even a bit above, with the other amounts that we already know plus what appears likely in the next few days. Johnstown had 58.9 mm and Oak Park 36.6 mm.

appledrop · 26-12-2021 11:27pm

Thanks for the update M.T, Merry Christmas!

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2021 1:55pm

After four weeks ...

IMT on 6.4 C, fourth week average was 7.7 which is 2.4 above normal.

MAX 14.4 and MIN -2.1

PRC is now right on normal (100%) with the fourth week rather wet at 181%.

SUN 105% and the fourth week a bit cloudier at 81% (486/600).

BONUS was scored in a previous post.

MIN will require the use of minimum progression to generate scores.

MAX could gain at least slightly and IMT likely to rise to around 6.7 but will be scored from 6.3 whatever it gets up to, meanwhile PRC likely to edge closer to 105-110%. SUN could maintain a slight edge on normal as any small amounts today and Friday would cancel out what's likely to be an overcast day tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2021 12:02pm

MAX has edged up to 14.5 (Moorepark 29th).

Tae laidir · 01-01-2022 11:29am

And edged up again to 14.6 at Casement yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2022 2:31pm

IMT soared in the last three days and finished on 6.9 C. PRC also gained and looks to be around 110% just from a rough check, will probably work it out more precisely and get a sun estimate as it would be at least the 4th before we see a Monthly Summary. So for some temporary scoring I will work out those values. So many hours of mild weather, you'd think it could have edged up past 15 somewhere but apparently not.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2022 2:31pm

MIN was -23 (here) does that count?

Tae laidir · 01-01-2022 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118400282#Comment_118400282

That's COLD!

You'll have to move to Alaska!

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2022 10:43pm

Approximate Scoring for December 2021

IMT was 6.9, scored from 6.3 as a form of maximum progression (highest forecast 6.1).

MAX was 14.6, MIN -2.1 (Min scored from min. progression)*

PRC was 110% and SUN est 95% (last three days barely one-third of normal applied to 100% after 28d)

BONUS already scored from 8.9, 6.3 NO (scores incl 3 pts for no snow, * did not get those 3 pts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ BONUS

Bsal ___________________ 18 _ 16 _ 19*_ 15 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 90

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _______ 22 _ 16 _ 17*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 13 _ 89-1= 88

Kindred Spirit ____________16 _ 19 _ 17*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 85

DOCARCH ___ (-2) _______ 23 _ 18 _ 18*_ 08 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 85-2= 83

Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 12 _ 14*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 80

___ Con Sensus _________ 13 _ 18 _ 11*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 11 ______ 78

Artane2002 _____________ 15 _ 16 _ 16*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 76

Mr Stonewall ____________ 13 _ 16 _ 08*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 13 ______ 74

200motels ______________ 14 _ 13 _ 13*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 74

Appledrop ______________ 09 _ 19 _ 15*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 73

Pauldry _________________13 _ 19 _ 11*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 73

Sunflower3 _____________ 10 _ 16 _ 12*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 10 ______ 70

Joe Public _______________18 _ 18 _ 06*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 70

John mac _______________14 _ 06 _ 16*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 68

adam240610 __ (-2) ______10 _ 17 _ 11*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 11 _70-2= 68

___ NormaL _____________15 _ 11 _ 08*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 68

waterways ___ (-2) _______15 _ 11 _ 11*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 12 _ 68-2= 66

sryanbruen _____________ 10 _ 17 _ 06*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 62

M. T. Cranium ___________ 11 _ 13 _ 07*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 07* _____ 61

Jpmarn ________________ 13 _ 16 _ 09*_ 00 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 59

Gonzo _________________ 05 _ 15 _ 05*_ 14 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 56

Esposito ________________15 _ 13 _ 07*_ 10 _ 03 ___ 06 ______ 54

Dasa29 ________________ 12 _ 00 _ 12*_ 10 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 48

Dacogawa ______________ 09 _ 15 _ 03*_ 00 _ 07 ___ 02* _____ 36

Mickey Mantle __ (-5) _____11 _ 00 _ 03*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 04* _38-5=33

Bazler ______ (-1) _______ 03 _ 00 _ 04*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 02* _32-1=31

Danno _________________ 00 _ 13 _ 02*_ 07 _ 00 ___ 01* _____ 23

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) _______ 00 _ 01 _ 01*_ 08 _ 03 ___ 01* _14-3=11

... scoring to be confirmed or adjusted on 4th-5th Jan when possible to check MS ...

... will probably hold off on the annual final update until that time, looks to be a tight finish perhaps and I just wanted to confirm my SUN estimate and make sure we didn't miss anything along the way for MAX or MIN (it rarely happens with so many watching) ...

... scoring generally quite good (thanks to our friend Min Progression), the top raw scores by the way would have been 66 (also Bsal); Bsal had one point for MIN and everyone else had zero (raw scores), and most of you had the extra six points (touchdown) for IMT, so to get your raw score just subtract your MIN score plus six from your total. Also of course 20 out of 26 scores had the three point Christmas bonus so the totals for most are out of 103 possible.

===========================================

(actual forecasts)