Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Private profiles - please note that profiles marked as private will soon be public. This will facilitate moderation so mods can view users' warning histories. All of your posts across the site will appear on your profile page (including PI, RI). Groups posts will remain private except to users who have access to the same Groups as you. Thread here
Some important site news, please read here. Thanks!

December 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-11-2021 1:12pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.


    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Monday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 9 points accumulated to that time).


    Good luck !!



«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC _______ 5.9 _ 15.3 _ -5.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 6.2, 3.3 _ yes Knock

    Normal _____ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5, 2.5 _ No way Jose



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,025 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John mac _______ 5.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.2 _ 102 _ 98 ___ 11.2, 3.2 _No

    (should be Thursday 2nd..);)

    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Monday 2nd, 



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,729 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal_____ 5.6 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 92 ___ 9.0, 3.5 _ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry____ 5.1_ 14.5_ -6.0 _ 130 _ 90 ___ 10.4, 3.8 _ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno _______ 2.7 _ 13.9 _ -10.7 _ 85_ 145 ___ 1.4, -6.7 _ yes Ballyhaise



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,606 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _______ 4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.9 _ 115 _ 90 ___ 3.8, -0.7 _ No

    Post edited by sryanbruen on

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 996 ✭✭✭ esposito


    Esposito _______ 5.3_ 13.9_ -6.7_ 95_ 130 ___ 5.4, -3.8_ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,575 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200MOTELS 5.2_ 13.9_ -5.9 _ 112_ 91 ___ 8.2, 2.1 _ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 320 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit 5.4° ___ 14.5 ___ -5.1 ___ 115 ___ 100 ___ 11.0, 4.0, No.



  • Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭ sunflower3



    Sunflower3....4.8° ___ 15.0__ -5.8 ___ 105 ___ 90 ___ 8.2, 0.5, Not on this island....



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    That error might go back a few annual cycles because I just block-copied the last December opening post and did remember to change the day of the week for the first, but if I've done that several times then that Monday was last correct in 2019. Hmm.

    Well since I'm posting I am going to revise my IMT to 4.9 (from 5.9), I am a bit more optimistic about the cold start now. So I will also revise MIN to -6.7 now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 626 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _____ 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -5.4 _ 103 _ 100 ___ 10.1, 3.5 _ No

    Post edited by Tae laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 807 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall_____5.1___14.2___-6.4___112___96__8.7, 2.3, No



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,292 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo _______ 4.3 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 112 _ 86 ___ 6.4, 1.5 _ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,763 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop__4.7_14.5_-5.3_100_105_8.0, 1.0_No way Jose



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ -6.9 _ 130 _ 88 ___ 7.8, 2.5 _ snowball's chance in hell ( no )



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,779 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _______ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -10.5 _ 170 _ 80 ___ 3.1, -4.4 _ yes - Casement

    I've got to go for the Hail Mary after that year! 😂



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,881 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002_____ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -5.2 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 7.3, 0.5 _ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,412 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _____ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 160 _ 90 ___ 8.3, 2.5 _ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 463 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _______ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 95_ 105 ___ 5.0, -4.0 _ No



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭ bazlers


    Bazler _____ 4.1 _ 11.2 _ -8.2 _ 112 _ 90___ -3.5 _ 2.5_Yes knock.



  • Registered Users Posts: 362 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner _____6_____15____-5_____100____100____9, 3, No



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,323 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 6.1 _ 14.8 _ -4.3 _ 090 _ 095 __ 7.2, -0.8 __ No



  • Registered Users Posts: 355 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways 5.3 ___ 15.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 123 ___ 103 ___ 7.0, 3.9 No



  • Registered Users Posts: 766 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610 4.8__14.9__-6__100_88__8__2 no


    (So I wrote this at 11:30pm but never pressed the post button...)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,921 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7_____3.3 _ 12.7 _ -13.7 _ 90 _ 130 __ 0.7, -5.3 _ Yes, Casement



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for December 2021


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub(A) 25th _snow


    DOCARCH ___ (-2) _______ 6.1 _ 14.8 _ -4.3 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 7.2 ,-0.8 _ No

    MrSkinner ___ (-1) _______ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 9.0 , 3.0 _ No

    Tae laidir _______________ 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -5.4 _ 103 _ 100 ___10.1 , 3.5 _ No

    Bsal ___________________ 5.6 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 092 ___ 9.0 , 3.5 _ No

    Joe Public _______________5.6 _ 14.4 _ -6.9 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8 , 2.5 _ No

    Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 14.5 _ -5.1 _ 115 _ 100 ___11.0 , 4.0 _ No

    waterways ___ (-2) _______5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 7.0 , 3.9 _ No

    Artane2002 _____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -5.2 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 7.3 , 0.5 _ No

    Esposito ________________ 5.3 _ 13.9 _ -6.7 _ 095 _ 130 ___ 5.4 ,-3.8 _ No


    ___ Normal ______________5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5 , 2.5 _ No


    John mac _______________ 5.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___11.2 , 3.2 _ No

    200motels ______________ 5.2 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 112 _ 091 ___ 8.2 , 2.1 _ No

    Pauldry _________________5.1 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___10.4 , 3.8 _ No

    Mr Stonewall ____________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.4 _ 112 _ 096 ___ 8.7 , 2.3 _ No


    ___ Con Sensus _________ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 096 ___ 7.8 , 2.0 _ No


    Jpmarn _________________5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 160 _ 090 ___ 8.3 , 2.5 _ No

    Dasa29 _________________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 5.0 ,-4.0 _ No

    M. T. Cranium ____________4.9 _ 15.3 _ -6.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 6.2 , 3.3 _ yes Knock

    Mickey Mantle __ (new --) __4.9 _ 12.3 _-10.1 _ 099 _ 100 ___ 5.1 _-1.2 _ yes

    Sunflower3 ______________4.8 _ 15.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 8.2, 0.5 _ No

    sryanbruen _____________ 4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.9 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 3.8 ,-0.7 _ No

    adam240610 __ (-2) ______4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 088 ___ 8.0 , 2.0 _ No

    Dacogawa ______________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _-10.5_ 170 _ 080 ___ 3.1 , -4.4 _ yes Casement

    Appledrop ______________ 4.7 _ 14.5 _ -5.3 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 8.0 , 1.0 _ No

    Gonzo _________________ 4.3 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 112 _ 086 ___ 6.4 , 1.5 _ No

    Bazler ______ (-1) _______4.1 _ 11.2 _ -8.2 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 2.5 ,-3.5 _ Yes Knock

    BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ______ 3.3 _ 12.7 _-13.7_ 090 _ 130 ___ 0.7 , -5.3 _ Yes Casement

    Danno _________________2.7 _ 13.9 _-10.7_ 085 _ 145 ___ 1.4 ,-6.7 _ yes Ballyhaise

    ____________________________________________

    25 forecasts, consensus is fairly close to normal with a slight bias towards extra precipitation.

    Only five foresee snow over 24th-25th but another six foresee dry frosty conditions.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Welcome MIckey Mantle, have added your forecast to the table, as a new entrant I have waived the late penalty as it would have no actual effect on anything, and as per normal procedures Con Sensus remains what it was from regular contest entrants in this last month of the year. If you decide to stay on, then you're fully entered into the winter part of the four seasons for next year also, but I would then take five points off your score in that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,339 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week of December ...

    IMT on 5.4 C, which is 0.7 below normal for the period.

    MAX 12.2 (not tracked carefully though) and MIN not tracked yet, somewhere around -1 to -2 perhaps.

    PRC 142% of normal.

    SUN 131.3% of normal (788/600).

    Windy at times.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Geez, I'm going out on a limb with that cold forecast. 😜



Advertisement