December 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2021 2:12pm #1

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Monday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 9 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck !!

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2021 5:33pm

MTC _______ 5.9 _ 15.3 _ -5.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 6.2, 3.3 _ yes Knock

Normal _____ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5, 2.5 _ No way Jose

John mac · 29-11-2021 7:50pm

John mac _______ 5.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.2 _ 102 _ 98 ___ 11.2, 3.2 _No

(should be Thursday 2nd..);)

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Monday 2nd,

Bsal · 29-11-2021 8:04pm

Bsal_____ 5.6 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 92 ___ 9.0, 3.5 _ No

pauldry · 29-11-2021 8:41pm

Pauldry____ 5.1_ 14.5_ -6.0 _ 130 _ 90 ___ 10.4, 3.8 _ No

Danno · 29-11-2021 9:38pm

Danno _______ 2.7 _ 13.9 _ -10.7 _ 85_ 145 ___ 1.4, -6.7 _ yes Ballyhaise

sryanbruen · 29-11-2021 10:34pm

sryanbruen _______ 4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.9 _ 115 _ 90 ___ 3.8, -0.7 _ No

esposito · 30-11-2021 12:07am

Esposito _______ 5.3_ 13.9_ -6.7_ 95_ 130 ___ 5.4, -3.8_ No

200motels · 30-11-2021 1:49am

200MOTELS 5.2_ 13.9_ -5.9 _ 112_ 91 ___ 8.2, 2.1 _ No

kindredspirit · 30-11-2021 6:08pm

Kindred Spirit 5.4° ___ 14.5 ___ -5.1 ___ 115 ___ 100 ___ 11.0, 4.0, No.

sunflower3 · 30-11-2021 9:12pm

Sunflower3....4.8° ___ 15.0__ -5.8 ___ 105 ___ 90 ___ 8.2, 0.5, Not on this island....

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2021 9:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118241481#Comment_118241481

That error might go back a few annual cycles because I just block-copied the last December opening post and did remember to change the day of the week for the first, but if I've done that several times then that Monday was last correct in 2019. Hmm.

Well since I'm posting I am going to revise my IMT to 4.9 (from 5.9), I am a bit more optimistic about the cold start now. So I will also revise MIN to -6.7 now.

Tae laidir · 30-11-2021 9:27pm

Tae laidir _____ 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -5.4 _ 103 _ 100 ___ 10.1, 3.5 _ No

mr.stonewall · 30-11-2021 9:30pm

Mr Stonewall_____5.1___14.2___-6.4___112___96__8.7, 2.3, No

Gonzo · 30-11-2021 10:38pm

Gonzo _______ 4.3 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 112 _ 86 ___ 6.4, 1.5 _ No

appledrop · 30-11-2021 11:53pm

Appledrop__4.7_14.5_-5.3_100_105_8.0, 1.0_No way Jose

Joe Public · 01-12-2021 12:14am

Joe Public ____ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ -6.9 _ 130 _ 88 ___ 7.8, 2.5 _ snowball's chance in hell ( no )

dacogawa · 01-12-2021 12:41am

Dacogawa _______ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -10.5 _ 170 _ 80 ___ 3.1, -4.4 _ yes - Casement

I've got to go for the Hail Mary after that year! 😂

Artane2002 · 01-12-2021 12:56am

Artane2002_____ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -5.2 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 7.3, 0.5 _ No

Jpmarn · 01-12-2021 1:21am

Jpmarn _____ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 160 _ 90 ___ 8.3, 2.5 _ No

dasa29 · 01-12-2021 1:32am

Dasa29 _______ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 95_ 105 ___ 5.0, -4.0 _ No

bazlers · 01-12-2021 6:43am

Bazler _____ 4.1 _ 11.2 _ -8.2 _ 112 _ 90___ -3.5 _ 2.5_Yes knock.

mrskinner · 01-12-2021 7:09am

Skinner _____6_____15____-5_____100____100____9, 3, No

DOCARCH · 01-12-2021 7:16am

DOCARCH _______ 6.1 _ 14.8 _ -4.3 _ 090 _ 095 __ 7.2, -0.8 __ No

waterways · 01-12-2021 9:58am

waterways 5.3 ___ 15.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 123 ___ 103 ___ 7.0, 3.9 No

adam240610 · 01-12-2021 12:28pm

adam240610 4.8__14.9__-6__100_88__8__2 no

(So I wrote this at 11:30pm but never pressed the post button...)

BLIZZARD7 · 01-12-2021 3:40pm

BLIZZARD7_____3.3 _ 12.7 _ -13.7 _ 90 _ 130 __ 0.7, -5.3 _ Yes, Casement

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2021 5:18am

Table of forecasts for December 2021

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub(A) 25th _snow

DOCARCH ___ (-2) _______ 6.1 _ 14.8 _ -4.3 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 7.2 ,-0.8 _ No

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _______ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 9.0 , 3.0 _ No

Tae laidir _______________ 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -5.4 _ 103 _ 100 ___10.1 , 3.5 _ No

Bsal ___________________ 5.6 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 092 ___ 9.0 , 3.5 _ No

Joe Public _______________5.6 _ 14.4 _ -6.9 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8 , 2.5 _ No

Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 14.5 _ -5.1 _ 115 _ 100 ___11.0 , 4.0 _ No

waterways ___ (-2) _______5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 7.0 , 3.9 _ No

Artane2002 _____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -5.2 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 7.3 , 0.5 _ No

Esposito ________________ 5.3 _ 13.9 _ -6.7 _ 095 _ 130 ___ 5.4 ,-3.8 _ No

___ Normal ______________5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5 , 2.5 _ No

John mac _______________ 5.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___11.2 , 3.2 _ No

200motels ______________ 5.2 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 112 _ 091 ___ 8.2 , 2.1 _ No

Pauldry _________________5.1 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___10.4 , 3.8 _ No

Mr Stonewall ____________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.4 _ 112 _ 096 ___ 8.7 , 2.3 _ No

___ Con Sensus _________ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 096 ___ 7.8 , 2.0 _ No

Jpmarn _________________5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 160 _ 090 ___ 8.3 , 2.5 _ No

Dasa29 _________________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 5.0 ,-4.0 _ No

M. T. Cranium ____________4.9 _ 15.3 _ -6.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 6.2 , 3.3 _ yes Knock

Mickey Mantle __ (new --) __4.9 _ 12.3 _-10.1 _ 099 _ 100 ___ 5.1 _-1.2 _ yes

Sunflower3 ______________4.8 _ 15.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 8.2, 0.5 _ No

sryanbruen _____________ 4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.9 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 3.8 ,-0.7 _ No

adam240610 __ (-2) ______4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 088 ___ 8.0 , 2.0 _ No

Dacogawa ______________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _-10.5_ 170 _ 080 ___ 3.1 , -4.4 _ yes Casement

Appledrop ______________ 4.7 _ 14.5 _ -5.3 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 8.0 , 1.0 _ No

Gonzo _________________ 4.3 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 112 _ 086 ___ 6.4 , 1.5 _ No

Bazler ______ (-1) _______4.1 _ 11.2 _ -8.2 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 2.5 ,-3.5 _ Yes Knock

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ______ 3.3 _ 12.7 _-13.7_ 090 _ 130 ___ 0.7 , -5.3 _ Yes Casement

Danno _________________2.7 _ 13.9 _-10.7_ 085 _ 145 ___ 1.4 ,-6.7 _ yes Ballyhaise

____________________________________________

25 forecasts, consensus is fairly close to normal with a slight bias towards extra precipitation.

Only five foresee snow over 24th-25th but another six foresee dry frosty conditions.

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2021 4:38am

Welcome MIckey Mantle, have added your forecast to the table, as a new entrant I have waived the late penalty as it would have no actual effect on anything, and as per normal procedures Con Sensus remains what it was from regular contest entrants in this last month of the year. If you decide to stay on, then you're fully entered into the winter part of the four seasons for next year also, but I would then take five points off your score in that.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2021 5:42pm

After the first week of December ...

IMT on 5.4 C, which is 0.7 below normal for the period.

MAX 12.2 (not tracked carefully though) and MIN not tracked yet, somewhere around -1 to -2 perhaps.

PRC 142% of normal.

SUN 131.3% of normal (788/600).

Windy at times.

Danno · 09-12-2021 12:28am

Geez, I'm going out on a limb with that cold forecast. 😜

December 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

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