Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

The UK is less attractive now for legitimate applicants as there'll no longer be an appeal in the instance of Windrush type deportation.

On note of the windrush scandal .... I had BBC radio 4 on whilst driving last week or weekend and some uncomfortable realities reared their heads regards the Home Office. I can't recall the exact context in which the topic got raised but it may have been news headlines. Something like only 5 people caught up in the Windrush debacle and who have been ruled as entitled to redress have actually seen any money from the government. On top of that, this sh1t is still going on with people being caught up in the Windrush net and treated absurdly with Machiavellian sadism (or incompetence; it's hard to tell which at times .. )

So yeah, it's really not a good look for any applicants, legitimate or otherwise.

I don't read many things on Daily Mail but read the odd thing to see what way the wind is blowing at that time with certain events but I always look at the comments to get a real feel of the temperature between those readers. Recently the tide has turned massively against Johnson. It is very noticeable and like all things it was a slight turn from the Mail recently and now heavy noise against the Premier. It would not surprise me to see more articles that are semi against Johnson and the tide turning quite quickly. There are a number of hurdles coming up, Christmas and all the shopping and all goods unavailability etc, winter and the possibility of extreme temps and power costs and the current UK system with power providers, continued migrants and new checks on 01 of next year. I would not be surprised to see a push very soon but to me it is obvious that his time is up and Johnson will be gone.

Yes, definitely very noticeable that Mail readers have turned on Johnson in the last couple of months. Those right wing press columnists and on social media still defending him may well be going against the general opinion of their own readers / followers.

I just feel it may be forced upon them rather than a push by an over eager front bencher. He may well become very hard to defend at some short point in the future.

You're right about the growing concerns of English Tory voters on migration, but it is of course an entirely manufactured 'crisis'. Let's say 40,000 people crossed the Channel in a year : that would be the equivalent of about 3000 asylum seekers going to Ireland - hardly something that would cause the Irish state to collapse.

But manufactured or not, it will be interesting to see where this whole debate goes and what impact it has on Johnson and the Tory Party.

A YouGov poll yesterday showed that 51% of people think Brexit is 'going badly' with only 20% or so thinking the opposite. This is definitely intriguing and suggests the right wing press, Tory MPs, Brexit cheerleaders etc are losing the battle and losing control of the narrative (I guess it's literally impossible for them to cover up the growing evidence all around that their project is failing badly). How they handle the ongoing failure of Brexit is going to be one to watch.

There's definitely a bit of too much Boris is a bad thing. Like seeing a comedian with the same routine, it wears thinner with time. I think a bigger issue over time will be his cabinet of uselessness, they can't seem to get anything right, they won't be able to point to much positives in policy at the next election.

It's easy to see Johnson moving ever more like Trump and sacking the likes of Patel if the migrant crossings continue; it's only inviting Farage to attack his right flank.

I also suspect that at some stage Frost will draw sufficient retaliatory measures from the EU he'll also get the chop. Boris is happy for those buffoons to push the envelope as far as possible, but when the balloon bursts, Boris won't have their back, only for stabbing purposes. I think it's telling that Boris talks about the Protocol needing adjustments and improvements and Frost banging the table demanding what he knows he won't get.

By that logic, a single illegal migrant crossing the channel is a "crisis". It is most certainly a problem, but as others have said, this "crisis" has been entirely manufactured for political sound-bites and media sales margins.

A BBC4 radio (yet again) show that I heard whilst driving home from work earlier in the week had a discussion around this very topic and it was great to hear someone point out that the numbers trying to reach the UK place it around 7th on the list of destinations, not 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to believe the shrill hysteria from certain .. ahem ... quarters. Breaking the numbers down per capita, the UK was more like 15th or 16th, so a bit of perspective on the issue regards the wider numbers is very much warranted (and alas shall not be done by those who really should stop and think about it before running their mouths off in the press)

I guess the issue with 'much reduced majority' is that the vulnerable seats are largely going to be from the new intake you referred to earlier that (the North Wall-ers).

So whilst they have a certain loyalty to Boris for helping get elected in the first place, how far does it extend? "What have you done for me lately?" as the saying goes. I suspect a lot of loyalty will disappear at the first hint that AN Other in charge would up the Tory vote by 2% increasing their chances of saving their seat.

There'll also be an element of which way is the wind blowing - it's always better to be on the winning team in any leadership situation.

Personally I think the plan was a spring/summer 2023 election from a position of leading in the polls, with Johnson resigning a year later to make lots of money on the circuit. And enough of the contenders would have been happy to bide their time until then. But as you say 'events, dear boy'.

Thanks to Brexit there's little chance of being sent back, which is probably why attempts have massively increased this year. Johnson and Co may try to play this up as the French being French, but it's the same for any attempt from any EU jurisdiction.