Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Yes, definitely very noticeable that Mail readers have turned on Johnson in the last couple of months. Those right wing press columnists and on social media still defending him may well be going against the general opinion of their own readers / followers.

You're right about the growing concerns of English Tory voters on migration, but it is of course an entirely manufactured 'crisis'. Let's say 40,000 people crossed the Channel in a year : that would be the equivalent of about 3000 asylum seekers going to Ireland - hardly something that would cause the Irish state to collapse.

But manufactured or not, it will be interesting to see where this whole debate goes and what impact it has on Johnson and the Tory Party.

A YouGov poll yesterday showed that 51% of people think Brexit is 'going badly' with only 20% or so thinking the opposite. This is definitely intriguing and suggests the right wing press, Tory MPs, Brexit cheerleaders etc are losing the battle and losing control of the narrative (I guess it's literally impossible for them to cover up the growing evidence all around that their project is failing badly). How they handle the ongoing failure of Brexit is going to be one to watch.

There's definitely a bit of too much Boris is a bad thing. Like seeing a comedian with the same routine, it wears thinner with time. I think a bigger issue over time will be his cabinet of uselessness, they can't seem to get anything right, they won't be able to point to much positives in policy at the next election.

It's easy to see Johnson moving ever more like Trump and sacking the likes of Patel if the migrant crossings continue; it's only inviting Farage to attack his right flank.

I also suspect that at some stage Frost will draw sufficient retaliatory measures from the EU he'll also get the chop. Boris is happy for those buffoons to push the envelope as far as possible, but when the balloon bursts, Boris won't have their back, only for stabbing purposes. I think it's telling that Boris talks about the Protocol needing adjustments and improvements and Frost banging the table demanding what he knows he won't get.

By that logic, a single illegal migrant crossing the channel is a "crisis". It is most certainly a problem, but as others have said, this "crisis" has been entirely manufactured for political sound-bites and media sales margins.

A BBC4 radio (yet again) show that I heard whilst driving home from work earlier in the week had a discussion around this very topic and it was great to hear someone point out that the numbers trying to reach the UK place it around 7th on the list of destinations, not 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to believe the shrill hysteria from certain .. ahem ... quarters. Breaking the numbers down per capita, the UK was more like 15th or 16th, so a bit of perspective on the issue regards the wider numbers is very much warranted (and alas shall not be done by those who really should stop and think about it before running their mouths off in the press)

I guess the issue with 'much reduced majority' is that the vulnerable seats are largely going to be from the new intake you referred to earlier that (the North Wall-ers).

So whilst they have a certain loyalty to Boris for helping get elected in the first place, how far does it extend? "What have you done for me lately?" as the saying goes. I suspect a lot of loyalty will disappear at the first hint that AN Other in charge would up the Tory vote by 2% increasing their chances of saving their seat.

There'll also be an element of which way is the wind blowing - it's always better to be on the winning team in any leadership situation.

Personally I think the plan was a spring/summer 2023 election from a position of leading in the polls, with Johnson resigning a year later to make lots of money on the circuit. And enough of the contenders would have been happy to bide their time until then. But as you say 'events, dear boy'.

Thanks to Brexit there's little chance of being sent back, which is probably why attempts have massively increased this year. Johnson and Co may try to play this up as the French being French, but it's the same for any attempt from any EU jurisdiction.

Whole debate on 'immigration' in England is beyond toxic. EU citizens using FoM, illegal migrants and refugees / asylum seekers are lumped together as one homogenous group (keep in mind that the Brexit referendum was intended or used to try and keep all three groups from entering Britain i.e. nobody is welcome). The right wing press are driving the narrative, fuelled by the prejudice of their readers.

Well, my comment was about British media and political reaction to the asylum situation post-Brexit, not about the rights and wrongs of it, so is very much on topic.

I wouldn't agree that the horrible loss of life this week has been the catalyst, this has been building for weeks with the ongoing tabloid coverage and various right wing figures (such as Farage and Patel) stirring things.

Let them enter the country legally, assess their claim and deal with that.

Forcing them into the hands of criminal gangs, after they have fled from dictators and the effects of UK foreign policy is only the answer if you're only wish to to act tough.

Indeed, and many Brexiteer assertions are going to be seriously challenged in coming months and years. Eu migrants drive up house prices / EU migrants keep wage levels artificially low / schools, housing and the NHS are at bursting point because of EU citizens etc. Let's see how true this actually is.

If that's her job, she's doing it very badly. Numbers have risen sharply on her watch. Her policies of cruelty and vilification are clearly not working; all she's doing now is doubling down on the policies that have already been shown not to work. Meanwhile her boss does his best to undermine the existing cross-channel agreement with France - six out of seven candidates in the coming French presidential election want to withdraw from the Le Touquet treaty, Macron being the exception, and Johnson thinks this is a good time to patronise Macron in order to curry favour with Daily Mail readers? Please.

I take your point that the Labour party under Starmer has not exactly set the world on fire, but things are not as grim for them as you (like to?) think. Whatever about red wall voters, I don't remember "Starmer's many attempts to overturn the referendum result" but, even if red wall voter think they do, the political damage that entails will get less and less as Brexit is more and more widely seen to have been a bad Tory idea, badly implemented by the Tories - a development that is well under way. And even if people continue to think Starmer a bit dull, they may come to the view that dull is better than the Tories' signature blend of sleaze and incompetence.

Bottoms up! Well, the maybe if you're drinking tapwater (though, be careful if you're in the areas where HMG's made it o.k. to discharge untreated sewage): Brexit->Not enough drivers->not enough booze for Christmas

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/25/business/wine-liquor-shortage-uk-christmas/index.html

In the first place, the claim that Starmer voted against attempt in Parliament to proceed with Brexit is false; he voted in favour of triggering Art 50.

More to the point, voting against Brexit as implemented by the Tories is not at all the same things as voting to reverse the outcome of the referendum. Other, less self-harming, Brexits were possible.

This is a distinction that is going to become more politically salient as the ruination of Johnson's Brexit become more and more apparent - Brexit supporters are going to have to conclude either that they were conned into voting for Brexit, or that they have been let down by the Tory failure to deliver the Brexit they voted for. Which do you think they will conclude? And a corollary of the latter conclusion is that those who, at the time, opposed the implementation of Brexit were correct to do so. Starmer will benefit from this.

And I don't think a Tory supporter should be drawing attention to Labour's "shadow cabinet of third-rate no-hopers". This invites a comparison which cannot possibly favour the Tories.

Darmanin (IIRC) went on record this weekend on the back of the EU Ministers’ meeting over immigration, with a claim of €17m paid out by the UK out of the €67m (£50m) promised…when patrolling the French north coast reportedly costs the French tax payer €250m.

I’m seeing a lot of Yorkshire-esque “calling a spade a spade” from French ministers about the UK atm, no doubt on instructions from Macron…

…who will be taking the EU presidency in about 1 month’s time.

I think the sudden, summary and very public cancellation of Patel’s invitation to that EU Ministers’ meeting over immigration, is very much the shape of diplomatic things to come, at least from France, for the next 6 months. Including for all things Brexit, whilst France presides the EU, especially as Macron co-temporously runs his presidential re-election race.

UK keeps in line, things keep progressing. UK steps out of line, gets its nose instantly rubbed into it, hard. Works OK with puppies.

So the wine and spirits association are lying? https://www.wsta.co.uk/archives/press-release/wine-and-spirit-businesses-call-time-on-hgv-driver-shortage-crisis?

Project Fear is a misspelling. It's project reality. Economy is weak, trade is dwindling and all that's grown, is hostility within and towards the UK. But please, more Tory talking points. It's worked so well in the past.

Much like other direst consequences of Brexit, predictions about hundreds of thousands of City jobs vanishing overnight were predicated on a no deal outcome. Which, as we all know, did not happen - still less under the preparatory framework of the WA of December 2019 with the ‘go light for one year’ TCA started on 1/1/21.

Rather, what did happen, continues to happen, and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future, as equally foretold (and chronicled since around 2019), is a slow bleed of high-value financial jobs tied with EU markets and trading activities, variously in retail and corporate banking, wealth management, (re)insurance and more.

A good proportion of these relocated jobs did not actually go to Dublin, Paris or Frankfurt (but Dublin got the lion’s share, good for them), but went to NY or Singapore instead since, 3rd country for 3rd country, might as well take the opportunity of a restructuring forced by Brexit to reorganise for efficiency. Whether the EU27 gained or not is moot: the UK lost all the same.

This bleeding of City jobs (and elsewhere, e.g. Leeds) will endure and, if not amplify, then stay at least constant, as the EU gradually repatriates ever more prerogatives in financial activities as time goes by, until such time as the UK financial jobs market reaches equilibrium based on zero (or close to) access to the EU financial markets. Latest example:

The jobs themselves matter a lot less than the assets under management, transactions with which attract a substantial volume of taxes. On that particular score, GB plc is at least a $ trillion down by now, through asset exfiltration due to Brexit. This has been well chronicled in the FT and other MSMs.

Sunak told Johnson that there is no more money to be had for his ‘levelling up’ agenda last week, so feel free to follow the non-money and find out how much less no.11 Downing St is getting out of the City now and for the foreseeable future, and maybe connect dots.

NI has been almost totally insulated from the 2021 economic impact of Brexit on GB regions - what could possibly be the reason?

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1465302099567251474