12th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread!

Mention of slipping and Christmas day will always remind me of 2009 - only time I really remember freezing rain in Ireland. Heavy rain shower at around 10am eventhough there was a heavy frost. Half an hour later I ran out (literally) to the car to get something and found myself about 3 feet in the air after my feet slid miles away from me, cartoon style, due to black ice everywhere. Landed with a thud on my back and couldn't breath for a good few seconds. Roads were absolutely lethal. Tried to drive to in laws for dinner but had to give up in our estate - cars slipping backwards down hills and the like. It was carnage. We abandoned the car and I very slowly carried my then toddler back to the house over an invisible but extensive sheet of black ice. 2 minute walk took at least 10....

Nice....

Not on my phone (Samsung) they aren't.... just me?

Just to update this. Less than 900 hours to go now and the tension is er..., well, sort of, er.....somewhat even, palpable.

Unfortunately, today's CFS is showing the kind of Xmas day we are all sadly too familiar with - a blast of mild air coming from the SW just in time for the big day. See chart below:-

Obviously a helluva long way to go and all to play for. Here's a seasonal pic just to keep the hope up...this time its Trim Castle.

CFS today is mild for the big day, but has cold enough weather in the lead up.

Just for a ddifferent perspective this is what Netweather's forecast is saying:-

"....The model we're using today is the ECMWF extended 45 day outlook, which gives a week by week forecast. We're using the air pressure anomaly map, which shows the difference from average that the model currently expects during the Christmas week.

What the map shows is slightly higher than average over Scandinavia and lower than average over parts of Southern Europe. Not a bad set up, if you're looking for colder weather, as the most likely wind direction would be from the east. The temperature map for this time doesn't show anything dramatically colder than average though.

At this range, even the broad pattern is up in the air, and some other long range models show a milder, more Atlantic dominated weather pattern during the Christmas week. But, on balance right now, the chances of cold and therefore the potential for a White Christmas is a touch higher than in a typical year. We are only at the start of the journey though, so expect plenty of twists and turns...."

This is my third time typing this message - gotta love this new website....

Anyway...

Looking at today's CFS there does appear to be a trend toward high pressure / an easterly component to our Christmas weather. Upper temps nothing to write home about (the flow doesn't actually originate in the east / north east) but I suspect it would feel pretty seasonal by day with night frosts. Also, with the weather coming from that direction much better chance of "upgrades" in terms of snow prospects. See a couple of charts below (being the pressure situation and the 2m temps on the big day).

and

By a few days later things are cooling down but still nothing spectacular...

and

So not a bad update all in all. With all the crap going on in the world, it would be nice if we had a real run at a white Christmas this year.

To keep with the theme, as usual I'm pasting a seasonal pic below. This time its my favourite photo from the March 2018 spell, an incredible drone shot making Cork's St. Finbarr's cathedral look even more stunning than usual....

Agree, even if it is "faux" cold as some describe it. Right now it looks like it could be high pressure from 16 Dec onwards. After 8 or 9 days of high pressure you'd expect to start seeing all day frosts in sheltered areas. Of course even the High pressure forecast is in FI

Worth pasting MTCs forecast this morning here. It covers from middle of next week onwards. What he states is beginning to look the more likely scenario, that it should be cool enough come the big day...

".... It should stay rather mild although nights could be closer to freezing than during the breezy mild spell. Highs will remain around 10 C. Eventually the high will drift somewhat further west allowing colder air to seep in from the northeast. This could be quite gradual over the days leading up to Christmas, then it could start to turn quite cold as northerly winds develop. Details will remain sketchy for a while yet, and so far there are no indications of severe cold but it may not be all that far away by the holiday week...."