12th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread!

Rebelbrowser

Its that day again, 1 November, when, if you are parent with kids like me, you are still full up to your gills with last night’s cheap chocolates and industrial quantities of Haribo… Anyway, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn now to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming and thus its time to re-open our White Christmas thread for 2021!

This particular thread turns 12 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many...) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

This time last year the thread was all discussions of what a one-off, strange, year it would be because of something called Covid 19 (whatever happened to that, eh?). How things have changed….

As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow at one of our airports I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 16 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

A good article is at https://www.newstalk.com/news/white-christmases-rare-ireland-happen-937867 .

It would be great if you could actually get a situation where, say, 5 days out it looked like we had proper cold upper temperatures forecast to be over us for Xmas day and thus a decent chance of snow. We’ve never had that on this thread save for 2010 – and in fact in 2010 most of us had snow on the ground 5 days out and could see it wasn’t going to melt by the big day so there was no drama then either.

The CFS (a long range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. At present it shows as follows for the big day:-

That shows a rather wet and stormy Christmas day, with our weather very much Atlantic sourced - not what you want when looking for a White Christmas. But as that is a weather map for T1314 there is still just about time for that to change!

As always, to get in the mood, I have pasted below a seasonal pic. This one is of Cobh, Co. Cork. T'would be great to see something like this this year...

funnydoggy

.. just hit me that it's just under 2 months away

WTF 😂

Wine Goddess

This thread always makes me smile! Mainly because at this stage we're still full of hope for a crisp dry sunny snowy Christmas Day and usually what we get is mild Altantic muck instead!

However hope springs eternal, I'm hoping for a nice cold sunny day as I think there's pretty much no chance of any snow.

I remember well that Christmas Day of 2004 when it actually snowed.....but in Dublin it was more like a snizzle of snow, not much actually laid, but it was lovely to see it falling......that year my eldest son was born so his first Christmas was white!

I'd bought a TV for my husband (remember when they were enormous,) and we struggled to get it out of the car - I'd hidden it in my parents house - and as we did so, snow was falling.......ah..... lovely memory.

almostthere12

Remember a fair few of those mucky Atlantic ones but do remember a few clear, crisp, frosty ones as well. 2004 was great though, sitting down to Christmas dinner and it started bucketing down outside!!!

I'll go with a frosty one for this year hopefully!!

sryanbruen

Although I don't have memories of Christmas 2004 myself because I was a itty bitty toddler, I had this pic lying around in my family photo archive of my little toy shed I had at that age that I thought I should share and you can see the snow settling on the roof as well as the roofs in the background but clearly it struggled. It was a screenshot rather than a scan so excuse the reflections to the right.

Nevertheless, that still definitely would have been one of the more memorable Christmasses for the snow alone because haven't seen falling snow on the day itself since!

2010 will never be beaten though from that magical blue sky reflecting on the deep snow cover everywhere to the intense cold. It was probably the first time since 1878 that we had such deep snow cover on Christmas Day.

Gonzo

Christmas 2004 was great. The only white Christmas I can remember where snow actually fell out of the sky, but it did struggle. It started around 3pm and was finished by 5pm but it was fairly wet snow. We had close to 2 inches on the ground by nightfall and then it started melting over the course of the night.

Not expecting snow on Christmas Day this year but a cold, crisp and frosty day would be lovely, preferably with freezing fog all day.

Danno

The White Christmas of 2010 was a spectacular one, deep covering of snow against a dazzling sun in a pristine blue sky and temperatures of -14.0c!

Probably overdue a white Christmas now at this stage. In 2017 we had snow around 10th December but it was well gone by the time the Christmas period really got going - that's one of the close calls of the 2011-2019 period. Last Christmas (2020) we got snow for the NYE period, another close call.

bazlers

Imagine if we got the equivalent of storm Emma rolling in on christmas eve night!

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118101729#Comment_118101729

Not sure snow fell anywhere in Ireland on Christmas Day 2010, so technically not a White Christmas (despite the Christmas card landscape/scenery!).

pauldry

1995 was a great Christmas in Castlebar. We had snowball fights after it snowed that evening.

Hard to see any snow this side of 2022 but you never know.

TTLF

Whilst I also cannot remember the snow in Christmas 2004, I am very certain my parents also took photos. (Only being 2 at the time so of course I wouldn't remember) but I recall seeing an image in our family memories somewhere.

For me however, 2010 will never leave my mind for snow. Not only did I experience the snowy landscape in Dublin, but I managed to travel up to my Auntie's house in Co. Down and experienced the cold, crisp spell with beautiful mountain scenery. I recall Christmas night as we were leaving my auntie's, the stairs of my auntie's froze over and my sister slipped down them! LOL

The driveway was paved in ice and our 2002 Toyota Rav 4 was struggling to leave the driveway with how much ice and snow there was! It was an absolutely magical time I'll never forget.

Rebelbrowser

Mention of slipping and Christmas day will always remind me of 2009 - only time I really remember freezing rain in Ireland. Heavy rain shower at around 10am eventhough there was a heavy frost. Half an hour later I ran out (literally) to the car to get something and found myself about 3 feet in the air after my feet slid miles away from me, cartoon style, due to black ice everywhere. Landed with a thud on my back and couldn't breath for a good few seconds. Roads were absolutely lethal. Tried to drive to in laws for dinner but had to give up in our estate - cars slipping backwards down hills and the like. It was carnage. We abandoned the car and I very slowly carried my then toddler back to the house over an invisible but extensive sheet of black ice. 2 minute walk took at least 10....

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118111417#Comment_118111417

I like your thinking. Good to see this thread again.

Rebelbrowser

Nice....

Rebelbrowser

Second attempt. Still nice!

NickNickleby

Thankfully, no one has posted a contradiction to Rebelbrowser's fantastic forecast for Christmas Eve. That's good enough for me!

Off to order my snow shoes.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118130919#Comment_118130919

It's the prudent thing to do in the circumstances...

NickNickleby

Well, in January 2011, I bought a snow shovel, and it was years before I needed it.

Dang, this new system that doesn't have smilies... or grimacies

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118131186#Comment_118131186

I know. Very hard for people to pick up on sarcasm etc without them. Lots of "cross purposes" arguments ahead...

konman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118131186#Comment_118131186

the smileys are in the bottom left of the comment box 😁

NickNickleby

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118134162#Comment_118134162

😨😓😅 so they are! Thanks. (slinking away...)

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118134446#Comment_118134446

Not on my phone (Samsung) they aren't.... just me?

konman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137952#Comment_118137952

Press the stickers button, then it should be there. I've a Huawei p30.

NickNickleby

You're not going mad, I wondered how I'd missed them -but they're not visible on my phone either, however I switch between phone and pc, so obviously my previous post was on the pc, because I'm on my phone now, and they're not there.

NickNickleby

ok, from my pc.

I've been watching a couple of GavsWeatherVids on youtube. He references data from wetterzentral.de and comments on each day in the run up to and beyond Christmas Day. He uses the word "Atlantic" a LOT, which apparently is a death sentence for snow (you can tell I've no idea what I'm talking about, I'm just repeating key phrases or words 😨🤣. ).

However, I'm not worried as apparently all can change within a few days , apparently.

There was some reminiscing about previous years' snow above, so here's one. I met a few lads for a game of snooker in Spawell on a Monday evening in 2009. I'm pretty sure it was November (or maybe early December). There had been a couple of flurries during the day. That evening after we finished and we're having a drink (non-alc) in the bar afterwards at about 10:30, I noticed it had started to snow outside. So I decided to head out immediately. By the time I reached Finglas on the M50, I was the only car in sight heading East, and the edges of the road were invisible. I aimed for the middle of the carriageway and kept going. It was astonishing. Now, if someone comes on and says "no, the records indicate that was a Monday in December 2010" , so be it, but I'm sure I remember other big things that happened (career change) in that 2009 timeframe that I just couldn't get wrong.

pauldry

Yeah the big day is just over 1,000 hours away so looked at forecast.

Mild with Southwesterlies and some light rain in the West. Highest temperatures 12c.

But as we know the CFS is pure fantasy so snow ❄ it is 😃

Nabber

This is the year. It’s got to be.

Rebelbrowser

Just to update this. Less than 900 hours to go now and the tension is er..., well, sort of, er.....somewhat even, palpable.

Unfortunately, today's CFS is showing the kind of Xmas day we are all sadly too familiar with - a blast of mild air coming from the SW just in time for the big day. See chart below:-

Obviously a helluva long way to go and all to play for. Here's a seasonal pic just to keep the hope up...this time its Trim Castle.

Billcarson

A good number of Xmas periods had cold weather from about 1990- 2010.

It was as if all those years was building up to something and then the best Dec of them all happened in 2010.

Its like after 2010 a switch happened with cold Xmas periods suddenly becoming rare ever since.

Rebelbrowser

CFS today is mild for the big day, but has cold enough weather in the lead up.

Just for a ddifferent perspective this is what Netweather's forecast is saying:-

"....The model we're using today is the ECMWF extended 45 day outlook, which gives a week by week forecast. We're using the air pressure anomaly map, which shows the difference from average that the model currently expects during the Christmas week.

What the map shows is slightly higher than average over Scandinavia and lower than average over parts of Southern Europe. Not a bad set up, if you're looking for colder weather, as the most likely wind direction would be from the east. The temperature map for this time doesn't show anything dramatically colder than average though.

At this range, even the broad pattern is up in the air, and some other long range models show a milder, more Atlantic dominated weather pattern during the Christmas week. But, on balance right now, the chances of cold and therefore the potential for a White Christmas is a touch higher than in a typical year. We are only at the start of the journey though, so expect plenty of twists and turns...."

Gonzo

CFS 12z rolling out currently. Over the past few weeks the CFS has favoured generally a mild December with only isolated colder runs compared to about a month ago when the CFS was regularly churning out very cold charts for Christmas and into January/February. Over the past few days the CFS is starting to trend colder again towards Christmas and into the new year. The current 12z is looking fairly chilly for Christmas, maybe we are starting to see a wobble in the CFS mild runs.

Gavweathers Christmas updates over recent weeks have broadly shown mild or excessively mild runs around Christmas with only 1 of them showing a cold outcome. Hopefully we will see the trend shift more towards cold over the next few weeks in the run up to the big day.

Rebelbrowser

This is my third time typing this message - gotta love this new website....

Anyway...

Looking at today's CFS there does appear to be a trend toward high pressure / an easterly component to our Christmas weather. Upper temps nothing to write home about (the flow doesn't actually originate in the east / north east) but I suspect it would feel pretty seasonal by day with night frosts. Also, with the weather coming from that direction much better chance of "upgrades" in terms of snow prospects. See a couple of charts below (being the pressure situation and the 2m temps on the big day).

and

By a few days later things are cooling down but still nothing spectacular...

and

So not a bad update all in all. With all the crap going on in the world, it would be nice if we had a real run at a white Christmas this year.

To keep with the theme, as usual I'm pasting a seasonal pic below. This time its my favourite photo from the March 2018 spell, an incredible drone shot making Cork's St. Finbarr's cathedral look even more stunning than usual....

Rebelbrowser

Things getting interesting if the CFS is to be believed (and to caution immediately, its a long range model so its rarely right!). It suggests a prolonged cold spell is on the way (nothing epic but snow possibilities a plenty) from next Tuesday, 6 December until in and around 20 December. Then unfortunately it warms up for a few days, including the big day unfortunately, but by Stephen's day we are back in a cold spell with snow prospects a plenty well into New Year. Indeed it has snow on the ground by midnight on Christmas day so it probably foresees a technically White Christmas. With that general trend, it must heighten the prospects for a White one. If CFS has the general trend right it is doing very well. I wouldn't worry at all about forecasts for specific days until you are 10 or less days out. I should also say that the GFS which is a higher resolution model does not support this pattern over the first half of December (far more Atlantic driven but not mild by any means and may even be some flakes with their forecast also).

Some sample CFS charts are below..

As always, will leave you with a festive pic, this time its Dublin's Temple Bar...

Danno

Tomorrow sees Christmas Day enter FI territory on the GFS...

Christmas Eve is on today's GFS outer reaches and doesn't look good at all...

pauldry

Ya there's zero chance of a white one this year unless you buy some snow machine. Weather will be quite benign once Barra is finished with us. An odd breezy and wet day but temperatures rising after this relatively cool period. Could be quite dry all the way to Christmas(that week)

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118290048#Comment_118290048

For how long could they rise for though.? My money would be on a cold frosty Christmas atm.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118290048#Comment_118290048

Can you post a link to this model you're referring to that's reliable 17 days ahead? :P

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118291194#Comment_118291194

Agree, even if it is "faux" cold as some describe it. Right now it looks like it could be high pressure from 16 Dec onwards. After 8 or 9 days of high pressure you'd expect to start seeing all day frosts in sheltered areas. Of course even the High pressure forecast is in FI

pauldry

The fact that an Atlantic High is lodging over us brings hope of dry but there's absolute zero chance of snow on Xmas Day.

Ya we may get a few frosty nights but at least its going to be dry. This trend has been in place 90percent of the time on the GFS. On the odd run they show some cold but I think it will be more interesting cold wise around the New Year.

Danno

This evening's 18Z from the GFS has this for Christmas Eve! 😍

Danno

Stunning GFS 18z FI run! In these charts there already is a couple of centimetres of snow widely across the west and north by tea-time on Christmas Eve!

mcburns07

We can dream Danno 😂

Danno

Just need a polar low for the whole country to have a White Christmas!

Lets hope the GFS keeps this Christmas north-northeasterly on the cards in future runs!

Remember, tomorrow's 6z run shows Christmas Day! 😀

Gonzo

Nice GFS 18z, proves that after next week anything is possible for Christmas: mild and dry, cold and dry, mild and wet, bitterly cold and dry, bitterly cold and snowy.

Least likely options are mild and wet along with bitterly cold and snowy. The placement of next week's high and where it goes after next week will be critical to the outcome on Christmas Day.

As for tonights 18z would like to see a bit more of a north-easterly rather than a northerly which leaves most of the country high and dry. The 18z is most likely an outlier too, will know in the next hour or two.

bazlers

Interesting, MT mentions energy peak just before Christmas too. All bets are still on.

Im going for a 2 day white out. 2 feet of level snow and car swallowing drifts!

Not much to ask for ;)

I was going to post this video in one of the politics threads to rile both sides in the culture wars but I think it will be equally appreciated here. Nice short interview w/ a snowflake researcher who can create identical, artificial snowflakes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao2Jfm35XeE

pauldry

I'm going to keep saying there's zero chance of a white one and maybe the weather will cut my nose off to spite my face.

Its certainly not complete mild and Bland. We seem to have got that bit out of the way.

Rebelbrowser

Worth pasting MTCs forecast this morning here. It covers from middle of next week onwards. What he states is beginning to look the more likely scenario, that it should be cool enough come the big day...

".... It should stay rather mild although nights could be closer to freezing than during the breezy mild spell. Highs will remain around 10 C. Eventually the high will drift somewhat further west allowing colder air to seep in from the northeast. This could be quite gradual over the days leading up to Christmas, then it could start to turn quite cold as northerly winds develop. Details will remain sketchy for a while yet, and so far there are no indications of severe cold but it may not be all that far away by the holiday week...."

Gonzo

High pressure is going nowhere fast on the latest GFS. We look high and dry and i'll take that. Warm uppers but with clear skies fog and frost would be a real possibility leading to much lower temperatures on the surface and could be quite seasonal to look at. Far better than having a raging Atlantic. Could well be a white Christmas in Athens tho.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300042#Comment_118300042

Mad the way Greece gets lucky with the white stuff so often.

All most of us are asking for is one week to 10 days of bitterly cold -8 uppers and snow showers piling in from the Irish Sea between now and end of February. Not much to ask for is it 🙄

pauldry

I don't want snow Dec 28th as I have to travel but Dec 25th would be nice or Christmas Eve night. But I think it looks remote. Dry and cold for now though usually closer to the time some rain seeps in.