Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation · 25-09-2021 11:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117902370#Comment_117902370

There's Irish milk alright albeit it's being sourced from the NE part of the country.

No doubt shipped to Scotland and then back again.

BonnieSituation · 26-09-2021 12:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117902776#Comment_117902776

That's a bit unfair. There's various reasons why people use different standards for the same tasks.

I weigh myself in stones.

And babies still continue to land in this world in pounds and ounces.

I'm a land surveyor by trade and I'm currently working as a GIS Analyst, and you can bet your house that I'd be committed to Dundrum before I'd be using anything but SI units in work.

There's cultural reasons why stones and pounds are used on RTÉ's OT. I've no idea why you feel that there's a "dumbening" involved here. Ridiculous.

26-09-2021 5:03am

I don't really understand why it's anathema to some on here to say that EU workers lowered wages in some industries. It isn't xenophobia or anti-EU to talk about facts.

If you dismiss obvious things like that, why would a Brexiteer listen to any other opinions you might have.

Nody · 26-09-2021 7:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940325#Comment_117940325

Because it's not true?

The claim: Immigration has held down wages in the UK.

Reality Check verdict: Current research suggests there was a small, negative impact on the wages of low-skilled workers, which was outweighed by other factors such as the impact of the financial crisis and rises in the minimum wage.

26-09-2021 8:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940389#Comment_117940389

"there was a small, negative impact on the wages of low-skilled workers"

How can you say "EU workers lowered wages in some industries" is not true, with a quote that says it's true? By saying it's not true, you're arguing in absolutes which are easily disproven.

Of course wages are impacted by an influx of people willing to work for less as the money goes further in their country. This is basic stuff and you can't deny it just because the overall net effect of immigration is positive.

Nody · 26-09-2021 8:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940413#Comment_117940413

Because you skip the second half of the quote; the actual impact was minimal (it's estimated as an total impact of 5% impact for 1993 to 2007, that's a 5% lower salary for a 15 years total period with only impacting low skilled workers as it actually increased salary effect for mid and high skilled workers) compared to other actual issues. The fact is that minimum wage increases provided a higher percentage salary increase compared to the impact of immigration had for the same jobs. Hence; the reality is actually that lower skilled workers had an actual higher salary increase then they would have without immigration due to the increase in minimum wage and were not negatively impacted.

Now I've provided an source and research papers to back up my position on the impact; you on the other hand have so far provided zero proof for your point and claim truths and facts that are your opinions. Care to share some actual proof?

26-09-2021 8:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940430#Comment_117940430

The proof is in your post. You're claiming 0% impact whilst saying there was 5%.

Nody · 26-09-2021 8:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940435#Comment_117940435

No, the proof is in my actual sources if you bothered to read them which actually back up what I'm saying; so once again give me a proper source for your claims please.

The MAC concluded that other factors had a greater impact on wages, with all workers having done badly since the financial crisis. Real wages are still struggling to rise above where they were in 2008, but lower-skilled workers have done marginally better due to the minimum wage rising faster than average earnings.

26-09-2021 8:40am

This is ridiculous. Your own source is saying there was an impact and all I'm saying is that if we're to expect Brexiteers to listen to rational arguments, we have to admit that there was an impact when it comes to drivers.

If your position is that EU migration had zero impact on driver salaries in the UK, you are simply driving people away from any other points you're making.

Like we're on the same side here yet you're treating me like I'm a Brexiteer saying I didn't read what you linked when I actually did. The actual minimum wage is irrelevant. I have no idea why you'd bold that. The conversation is about how adding supply to the labour force puts the wages of drivers closer to that minimum wage.

Nody · 26-09-2021 8:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940454#Comment_117940454

No, what I'm saying is the actual studies done shows that minimum salary increase had a higher actual impact on salary increase for low skilled workers than the impact of immigration (i.e. low skilled workers were not negatively impacted because the increase from immigration salary impact was less than the increase from minimum wage which is what said jobs pay). That's what the papers state; you on the other hand keep making statements on impact without any actual source to back that up beyond "It's obvious" etc. stating it all as an actual fact and expects it to be accepted without a source. What I'm asking is that you actually back up your opinion, which is a brexit (among others) dead horse flogged over and over again as an fact, with some actual sources. What is the claimed impact that the immigration had that we're suppose to accept? What's the actual impact beyond minimum salary increases? Because I keep hearing how immigration drove down salaries yet I'm seeing zero actual facts to back it up. What drove salaries down was the financial crisis 2008, salaries have still not recovered. What has not driven the salary down is immigration; that's a boogy bear claim without actual figures to back it up.

26-09-2021 9:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940473#Comment_117940473

Your position is that the obvious conclusions from both the theoretical economic impact of an increased supply of labour, and the fact wages have been going up in response to the recent decrease in supply of labour, should be discarded due to some hard to define reasons.

And I have no idea why you say there are zero actual facts when you provided said facts:

When it talks about a small impact, it looked at the period from 1993 to 2017, over which time average earnings for the lowest-paid rose by 55%. Using economic modelling, they estimated that - if there hadn't been European migration into the UK - that rise would have been around 5% higher.

The following paragraph does not negate the above paragraph in the way you think it does.

The MAC concluded that other factors had a greater impact on wages, with all workers having done badly since the financial crisis. Real wages are still struggling to rise above where they were in 2008, but lower-skilled workers have done marginally better due to the minimum wage rising faster than average earnings.

All of these things can be true together. 2008 is irrelevant. It having an impact does not mean EU migration didn't.

You might as well argue with the wife that your beer absolutely does not make you fat because the fast food you eat has an even bigger impact.

ancapailldorcha · 26-09-2021 9:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940435#Comment_117940435

Because the problem is massive inequality and closing the door to EU migrants has been shown to be the abysmal idea it always was. A 5% adjustment in wages for some sectors isn't going to fix the housing crisis here. Brexiters weren't saying it was 5%, they were saying that the reason people couldn't get houses was because of immigration. A carer in London on less than £20,000 per annum won't be any closer to home ownership if they receive an additional £1,000. The day after the referendum, the Brexiters went silent on wages. I wonder why.

silverharp · 26-09-2021 9:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938753#Comment_117938753

whats the "it" and "this"?

listermint · 26-09-2021 9:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940325#Comment_117940325

As usual a post is so nose close to the wall that they can't step back and look at a wider picture. Immigration stimulates economic activity across the board resulting in more jobs and faster increases in wages. It does in reality the entirely opposite of what your think it does.

I would suggest taking two steps back from the wall take a look left and take a look right you may actually see what the reality is in terms of improvements for everyone. I'd even go as far as suggesting most people on the ground have no actual problems with immigration at all because people aren't actually jingoistic lunatics like farage using fears as a tool and a wedge to make money off people.

The notion that immigration actual harms the Economy is laughable. But I would love for you to prove how it has diminished the lives of workers. Shoot!

ancapailldorcha · 26-09-2021 9:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940616#Comment_117940616

The claim in your post.

Sam Russell · 26-09-2021 10:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940046#Comment_117940046

Well, it is cultural, but culture changes with time. We no longer uses horses for travel, so we no longer reference them in everyday speech.

You say you weigh yourself in stones - so it is not an electronic scales if it is like mine. If you set it to stones, it gives stones and decimal stones. Or it can be set to pounds and decimal pounds. So it is set to Kilograms. If the number increases, then I am getting heavier.

I heard a presenter on the BBC describe some place as the size of 5 football pitches, Now, I have no concept of how big a football pitch is as I do not play or even follow football, and when you put 5 football pitches together, do you include the bits you need in between these pitches? A meaningless description of area - a bit like 'millions of degrees (Fahrenheit)' as the same description would apply to Celsius.

Just as media in Ireland should use Irish spelling, they should use SI units as a primary measure, and not obsolete measures - they can reference them as a translation. It is by thus using them universally that they become customary, and they fall away from everyday speech. However, 'spending a penny' will continue to have a specific meaning to most people.

Beechwoodspark · 26-09-2021 11:19am

For what it’s worth..

have a friend in the haulage industry. He said to me that Irish and EU hauliers actively avoid Uk jobs. way too much hassle delays and paperwork etc

this Uk work permit for hauliers wheeze won’t work, he guaranteed.

yagan · 26-09-2021 11:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940843#Comment_117940843

I remember the Skynews or BBC reporters in the Italian covid wards when it was taking off there but when it hit Britain they didn't do the same. It was such a weird thing, fine to stick their beak into other peoples horror but stay stum when it's own.

ArmaniJeanss · 26-09-2021 12:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940864#Comment_117940864

These aren't 'through the UK jobs' though, so the delays/paperwork shouldn't be an issue once (if) they get there. The jobs are within the UK, e.g., pick a delivery up in a UK warehouse and deliver it to a succession of UK stores. Repeat twice a day for 3 months.

Which is not to say the visa idea will work - but at 5,000 they have probably aimed it low enough that it's a reachable target.

yagan · 26-09-2021 12:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940965#Comment_117940965

Another thing is will EU licenses be accepted commercially?

If they do allow it it may open up other precedents that will not be able to back down from.

silverharp · 26-09-2021 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939972#Comment_117939972

I popped into the M&S in Blackrock last week, sign saying "supporting Irish farmers" milk from NI lol . their shelves were full though, fresh and packaged

26-09-2021 12:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940629#Comment_117940629

I'm not trying to make that point at all. I think migration within the EU is good. Have I ever been pro-Brexit or anti-EU on here? But I think it's ok in a Brexit context to say that yes, sometimes in certain industries, it lowers wages. Whether or not it does actually do that is a complicated question but what I've noticed on this thread is that any utterance of the possibility is seen as pro-Brexit anti-EU propaganda and that makes it echo-chamberish.

It comes down to two scenarios; it absolutely never impacts wages whatsoever, or it does. I'm arguing that it's ok to say that it's sometimes the latter, which is far more reasonable than the absolute No and mockery of the notion. The link provided by Nody said there was a 5% difference in those years. To argue that being in a union that gives freedom of movement to poorer countries absolutely does not impact wages whatsoever holds as much water as saying outsourcing to India or China absolutely does not impact wages paid by EU companies, even though that is patently untrue.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. It's more a commentary on the thread than a political topic.

Strazdas · 26-09-2021 1:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117941034#Comment_117941034

The 'drives down wages' thing always sounds like a concocted device to justify hating on the EU and EU citizens. Brexiteers and Leave voters don't appear to have heard of market forces. There are numerous different variables at play in an economy which decide wage rates.

Also, you can't have a discussion on wage impacts without discussing the many benefits the exact same workers are bringing to the economy (but that's the discussion the Brexiteers are having....that EU migrant workers are a drain and a burden on the economy and that the UK would be far better off without them).

Strazdas · 26-09-2021 1:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940864#Comment_117940864

There is virtually nothing in this visa scheme offer that would appeal to EU drivers, not unless they were offering them £3000 a week or something to do the job.

Igotadose · 26-09-2021 1:47pm

So, if the UK run out of natural gas (or it becomes prohibitively expensive,) given Ireland's dependence on the UK for its natural gas, what happens here? Is there an LNG terminal in Ireland? I thought there's been one under debate along the Shannon for some time with no progress, and there are actually no real reserves, except a few fields nearly played out. The bulk comes from Scotland. I'm sure there are contracts, but why wouldn't the UK simply redirect in a 'national emergency?'

26-09-2021 1:48pm

I don’t think this trucker issue is resolvable. The U.K. really isn’t going to step back from it.

They aren’t putting anything attractive on the table. It’s cumbersome, deliberate inflexible, very expensive and extremely unwelcoming and the people trying trying to attract have little or no incentive to operate there.

I think you’re going to see a huge mess before they become realistic about it.

They don’t seem to understand they are operating in a market place for a pool of labour and they’re offering nothing.

There isn’t some kind of entitlement.

Oafley Jones · 26-09-2021 2:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117941030#Comment_117941030

How closely were you looking, because any store I’ve been in has been a wreck. There’s no way they were anywhere close to what they should be. Bare in mind that they announced this week they’d cut 800 lines to Irish stores.

CptMonkey · 26-09-2021 2:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117941474#Comment_117941474

Sure have m&s stopped the food for Christmas that you could have ordered in advance because they are so unsure of their supply lines.

make you wonder how long before they pull out of Ireland altogether

pixelburp · 26-09-2021 2:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117941474#Comment_117941474

I wonder if @silverharp was in a food and clothes stores; would stand to reason the larger, more boilerplate stores be stocked better than the "M&S Food" outlets like mine, whose stock is almost permanently threadbare. And as @CptMonkey remarked they're not even doing Christmas food now.

I don't think they'll pull out of Ireland totally, but wouldn't be surprised if they consolidated their operation here, and closed up the food outlets. The stores still have their clothes and homeware departments - to that, I wonder if brexit has had less effect on that part, given the products would be coming from China, Vietnam etc.

26-09-2021 2:48pm

To be quite honest, I wouldn't use M&S as a bellwether. They've a long history of international expansions that tend to go horribly wrong, mostly because they've demonstrated a lot of extreme inflexibility, over centralisation and inability to adapt or localise. Their Irish stores weren't really part of that expansion, as they pretty much operated in Ireland as if it were part of 'the mother ship' with almost zero localisation. It was just treated as an extension of their home market.

They made a lot of money in their Irish stores over the years, and some of their prime locations here have been amongst their most profitable outlets anywhere. So, I don't think they're going to be in a rush to close them unless they really can't figure out how to make things work.

Brexit's a mess, but I think other retail groups are likely to be far more able to adapt and work around, particularly anyone who has a decent presence in the EU, other than just in Ireland. The big British owned retailer here is Tesco and their Irish operation is really a stand alone business that was built on the purchase of Quinnsworth. So, it's quite capable of adapting and isn't really that dependent on the UK operations and also has significant scale in its own right.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Comments