New Housing for All Plan launched

cubatahavana · 02-09-2021 4:36pm #1

New housing plan launched. Looks very ambitious

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-launches-housing-for-all-plan-aiming-to-build-33-000-homes-a-year-1.4663256?mode=amp

Amadan Dubh · 02-09-2021 10:14pm

The devil will be in the delivery but it's quite clear that a material drop in rents and house prices will need to happen in the next 4 years, not 10 years, or this Housing For All plan will be scrapped to make way for the Shinners & Friends to give it a go. Personally, I feel it is already too late for FF and FG to bring down rents and house prices significantly enough to save their skin. 30,000 houses per year as a dramatic target is underwhelming when we have been doing 20000 the last few years - even the institutionals suggested a figure of 50,000 per year for the next 30 years last month. Our projected population growth figures would also lead to serious questions about the sustainability of our economy and immigration to this country with only 30000 homes being targeted for each of the next 10 years.

A big issue is the covid jumps in house prices, that cannot be taken as the base cost from which a 10/15% drop in average prices should be targeted. The 7% increases during the last year of restrictions needs to be looked at as being on top of the decreases necessary from the levels achieved in the market in 2018/2019. Based on salaries, deposit rule, mortgage lending restrictions, the government will need house prices to drop 20% from their current levels at least, in my view, in the next 3 to 4 years, to get sufficient numbers onto the ladder that might then vote for them. Similar to rents, which haven't risen much during covid, the government needs to see rents at least 30% down from current levels, based on the salaries people earn (and salaried workers are the majority of renters), again within 3 to 4 years. If not then I just do not see how SF won't be in power with their comrades.

Atlantic Dawn · 02-09-2021 10:18pm

They really felt the kick up the hole they got in the last election.

mrslancaster · 02-09-2021 10:38pm

I wonder will more landlords exit when the indefinite tenancies plan is brought in?

[Deleted User] · 02-09-2021 10:39pm

"Ambitious" politico speak for "unachievable". "Unachievable and we can blame the next government for its failings"

jill_valentine · 02-09-2021 11:11pm

I think it was a miscalculation for them to hype this up as something "radical" judging by the sense of underwhelmed frustration it seems to have elicited in response.

I see lots of positive noise about single buyers, but nothing that will actually help them much. The shared equity scheme, how are the details on that still so vague at this stage?!? That was supposed to be the big carrot for single buyers, but the worked example in some of the press stuff has a couple on 70k. The only big change to the Rebuilding Ireland homeloan is opening the single applicant salary cap up to 65k which just means more competition for the low earners it was meant to be for.

From a personal standpoint, as a single 36 year old professional with a 30k deposit for a first time purchase, I don't see anything here at all yet that's likely to help me, and lots to hurt me by inflating prices.

FromADistance · 02-09-2021 11:30pm

FF must think there's oceans of tradespeople just sitting around waiting for work... certainly an ambitious plan that's for sure and you can be guaranteed the private sector will ride them for every penny they've got.

lossless · 02-09-2021 11:31pm

1) These projections are so short in ambition, even for a pipedream, it comes across as an inside joke.

2) property sizes/bedrooms are decreasing year on year, which will render "dwellings built" less and less indicative of progress.

3) Estimations are that government are merely keeping track with immigration. The vast majority of what is being built is absorbed by new arrivals. It wont alleviate the housing crisis, it will maintain it.

4) Buy to let companies are absorbing many new developments, sometimes in their entirety before a brick is even laid. The government(s) are going guarantor on vulture profits by paying the rent in many cases for decades to come.

And lots more besides.

At what point, in all seriousness, is a housing "crisis" actually a crisis, and not just simply a coordinated plan? How many years have people bought into the idea of "just build more houses and it'll be all right, jack"? How long more can that smokescreen be maintained, another decade, two?

Where are the journalists, where is the investigative work tracking the background deals on this whopping scam?

Put yourself in the position of a vulture fund or speculator, this country is "treasure island". Not only are you not going to pay gain/exit taxes, not only is your capital and capital profit guaranteed for decades, not only will you be offered assets for fractions on the euro, not only will the state guarantee your rental profit...

One way another, in years to come, this will be unveiled as the biggest asset scam this country has ever seen.

A new housing plan? The housing crisis IS the plan.

RichardAnd · 03-09-2021 9:17am

You know when there's an oil fire and someone deliberately throws a bucket of water on top of it? Yeah...

More seriously, this is one more step in the state's plan to turn the population of this country into capital generating units either for itself, or for the wealth funds who will benefit from this plan.

jill_valentine · 03-09-2021 9:20am

I might be eligible for the Shared Equity/"First Home Scheme", but I'm in a dilemma about whether I should wait to see or rush and get something somewhere now in the middle of nowhere before finding out I'm not and it blows up prices everywhere.

Underground · 03-09-2021 9:27am

300k new homes by 2030 with 90k earmarked for social housing. What about the investment funds that will acquire new developments en masse and immediately lease them back to the council as they are incentivised to do? That 90k in reality will be a much higher figure.

Luxemburgo · 03-09-2021 9:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840766#Comment_117840766

I would much rather see much large numbers of private housing. This will only increase prices for people looking to buy

Marius34 · 03-09-2021 9:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840766#Comment_117840766

from their plan: "ending of long-term leasing to provide social homes, moving to delivery of new builds"

Underground · 03-09-2021 9:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840841#Comment_117840841

That sounds good, I hope they stick to their word.

The Taoiseach said in May that no local authority should be on the other end of a long term lease with an investment fund, and yet it continued all throughout summer. Forgive me if I take what this government says with a grain of salt.

rob316 · 03-09-2021 9:50am

The social housing system has to be overhauled, cost rental should be championed, no way should you be getting a 350k new build for 30 quid a week. I live in social housing, looking to move and buy now and the council rent is too low IMO. 15% of income is too low for those that can afford it. People bitch about the council selling housing stock at huge discounts but the alternative, is rent out a property for about 50 years to a family and take in about 50 to 100k less maintenance.

maestroamado · 03-09-2021 9:51am

I remember a minister saying just before the crash that we built 90,000 houses and it wasn't enough. Our population has increased by 500,000 since then and now 30,000 is what is being offered.

timmyntc · 03-09-2021 9:55am

Where does the labour come from to build all this? They just assume enough construction workers & tradesmen will magic up out of nowhere.

There aren't many trades who are sitting idle right now - adding demand for another 30k houses per year will just inflate their prices, it wont get anything more built.

[Deleted User] · 03-09-2021 10:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840105#Comment_117840105

I'm still in the deposit-acquiring stage but yeah, all looks like more price inflation. The shared equity thing is a nonsense as well. Prices will just go up to compensate again. Oh well.

RichardAnd · 03-09-2021 10:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840908#Comment_117840908

I think it goes something like this:

We need to build more houses!
Where will the labour come from?
We need more immigration!
Where will the immigrants live?
We need to build more houses!

Circular reasoning perhaps.

Joking aside, this is not a "crisis" that we are dealing with, as I see it. What this is is the result of deliberate action by a compromised state to turn Ireland into yet another wealth-generating engine for neo-liberalist/globalist interests. This is happening across Western states, and I for one and deeply concerned about what will come of this.

timmyntc · 03-09-2021 10:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840941#Comment_117840941

Yup - the only way to get tradesmen is to get more young people trained in the trades - increase capacity in training programs and try encourage more uptake in the trades.

mrslancaster · 03-09-2021 10:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840908#Comment_117840908

And extra construction workers need to live somewhere too...

Part 5 social requirement in new developments increasing from 10 to 20%. Lots of people trying to buy saying they are being outbid by funds & councils /ahb's who are buying extra in those same developments bringing the % much higher.

jill_valentine · 03-09-2021 10:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840931#Comment_117840931

It's fairly ridiculous that a scheme ostensibly to help First Time Buyers is filling us with despair, but there you go, that's about right for housing policy in this country.

mrslancaster · 03-09-2021 10:26am

Heard Eoin obroin yesterday, he didnt have too many answers about how to increase supply. He wants a 3 year rent freeze & government to stop landlords leaving the market. He called it a 'disorderly exit'.

Luxemburgo · 03-09-2021 10:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841052#Comment_117841052

How would you actually stop landlords leaving the market?

zom · 03-09-2021 10:41am

We can build even million of new houses but if they go into hands of small group of "investors" they will keep prices artificially high (why they shouldn't) like it was 10 or 20 years ago. I have friends (couple) holding a vacant property in Dublin without any intention of using it, just enjoying its price constantly rising - so big international corporations can hold all quarters for decades...

This is real issue - not "expensive labor".

Marius34 · 03-09-2021 10:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840851#Comment_117840851

You should always take politics with grain of salt, it's not about "this government". The nicer it sound the less it should be trusted.

RingSting · 03-09-2021 10:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840908#Comment_117840908

Plenty of lads working in offices with trades since 2008 (myself included).

JDigweed · 03-09-2021 10:49am

Just had a quick read through this last night. I think they are making a fatal mistake with the vacant properties. The amount of land with PP, vacant and derelict properties in this country is staggering. They should be crucifying anyone holding onto land without a good reason and if a derelict property cannot be redeveloped by the owner a CPO should be used immediately. Desperate times call for desperate measures

mrslancaster · 03-09-2021 10:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841089#Comment_117841089

He wants government to prevent them from selling, he said over 20000 had left in the past few years & it needs to be stopped. He's been talking about indefinite tenancies & an escrow system for deposits for a long time & they are both in this new plan.

Another thing is short term lets will be managed by Failte Ireland. How will that work? Will airbnb & private holiday home lets be gone?

jill_valentine · 03-09-2021 10:51am

Rory Hearne reckons quarter of the allocated budget is HAP...

RichardAnd · 03-09-2021 10:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841109#Comment_117841109

The question that no one asks is why the focus is build, build and build some more. In a world facing issues like the climate crisis and the unsuitability of infinite growth economics, I find the idea of constant expansion to be counter to the often stated goal of achieving "sustainability". Thus, when one hears that the goal of this plan is to build 300k "houses" in the next decade, one can't help but ask "what then?" Will there be another plan to build 400k houses by 2040 and so on? Where is this going?

To me, it seems to be the case that the intention is to ensure a constant demand for housing though an ever increasing population. In other words, infinite growth. This ideology is why are have a situation where a house bought for 12k in the 1970s is now worth 20-30 times as much. We have got to start thinking about future generations what we are leaving them. I do not want my nieces and nephews to grow up in an Ireland covered in high-rise apartment blocks.

New Housing for All Plan launched

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