New Housing for All Plan launched

cubatahavana

New housing plan launched. Looks very ambitious

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-launches-housing-for-all-plan-aiming-to-build-33-000-homes-a-year-1.4663256?mode=amp

Amadan Dubh

The devil will be in the delivery but it's quite clear that a material drop in rents and house prices will need to happen in the next 4 years, not 10 years, or this Housing For All plan will be scrapped to make way for the Shinners & Friends to give it a go. Personally, I feel it is already too late for FF and FG to bring down rents and house prices significantly enough to save their skin. 30,000 houses per year as a dramatic target is underwhelming when we have been doing 20000 the last few years - even the institutionals suggested a figure of 50,000 per year for the next 30 years last month. Our projected population growth figures would also lead to serious questions about the sustainability of our economy and immigration to this country with only 30000 homes being targeted for each of the next 10 years.

A big issue is the covid jumps in house prices, that cannot be taken as the base cost from which a 10/15% drop in average prices should be targeted. The 7% increases during the last year of restrictions needs to be looked at as being on top of the decreases necessary from the levels achieved in the market in 2018/2019. Based on salaries, deposit rule, mortgage lending restrictions, the government will need house prices to drop 20% from their current levels at least, in my view, in the next 3 to 4 years, to get sufficient numbers onto the ladder that might then vote for them. Similar to rents, which haven't risen much during covid, the government needs to see rents at least 30% down from current levels, based on the salaries people earn (and salaried workers are the majority of renters), again within 3 to 4 years. If not then I just do not see how SF won't be in power with their comrades.

Atlantic Dawn

They really felt the kick up the hole they got in the last election.

mrslancaster

I wonder will more landlords exit when the indefinite tenancies plan is brought in?

"Ambitious" politico speak for "unachievable". "Unachievable and we can blame the next government for its failings"

jill_valentine

I think it was a miscalculation for them to hype this up as something "radical" judging by the sense of underwhelmed frustration it seems to have elicited in response.

I see lots of positive noise about single buyers, but nothing that will actually help them much. The shared equity scheme, how are the details on that still so vague at this stage?!? That was supposed to be the big carrot for single buyers, but the worked example in some of the press stuff has a couple on 70k. The only big change to the Rebuilding Ireland homeloan is opening the single applicant salary cap up to 65k which just means more competition for the low earners it was meant to be for.

From a personal standpoint, as a single 36 year old professional with a 30k deposit for a first time purchase, I don't see anything here at all yet that's likely to help me, and lots to hurt me by inflating prices.

FromADistance

FF must think there's oceans of tradespeople just sitting around waiting for work... certainly an ambitious plan that's for sure and you can be guaranteed the private sector will ride them for every penny they've got.

lossless

1) These projections are so short in ambition, even for a pipedream, it comes across as an inside joke.

2) property sizes/bedrooms are decreasing year on year, which will render "dwellings built" less and less indicative of progress.

3) Estimations are that government are merely keeping track with immigration. The vast majority of what is being built is absorbed by new arrivals. It wont alleviate the housing crisis, it will maintain it.

4) Buy to let companies are absorbing many new developments, sometimes in their entirety before a brick is even laid. The government(s) are going guarantor on vulture profits by paying the rent in many cases for decades to come.

And lots more besides.

At what point, in all seriousness, is a housing "crisis" actually a crisis, and not just simply a coordinated plan? How many years have people bought into the idea of "just build more houses and it'll be all right, jack"? How long more can that smokescreen be maintained, another decade, two?

Where are the journalists, where is the investigative work tracking the background deals on this whopping scam?

Put yourself in the position of a vulture fund or speculator, this country is "treasure island". Not only are you not going to pay gain/exit taxes, not only is your capital and capital profit guaranteed for decades, not only will you be offered assets for fractions on the euro, not only will the state guarantee your rental profit...

One way another, in years to come, this will be unveiled as the biggest asset scam this country has ever seen.

A new housing plan? The housing crisis IS the plan.

RichardAnd

You know when there's an oil fire and someone deliberately throws a bucket of water on top of it? Yeah...

More seriously, this is one more step in the state's plan to turn the population of this country into capital generating units either for itself, or for the wealth funds who will benefit from this plan.

jill_valentine

I might be eligible for the Shared Equity/"First Home Scheme", but I'm in a dilemma about whether I should wait to see or rush and get something somewhere now in the middle of nowhere before finding out I'm not and it blows up prices everywhere.

Underground

300k new homes by 2030 with 90k earmarked for social housing. What about the investment funds that will acquire new developments en masse and immediately lease them back to the council as they are incentivised to do? That 90k in reality will be a much higher figure.

Luxemburgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840766#Comment_117840766

I would much rather see much large numbers of private housing. This will only increase prices for people looking to buy

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840766#Comment_117840766

• from their plan: "ending of long-term leasing to provide social homes, moving to delivery of new builds"

Underground

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840841#Comment_117840841

That sounds good, I hope they stick to their word.

The Taoiseach said in May that no local authority should be on the other end of a long term lease with an investment fund, and yet it continued all throughout summer. Forgive me if I take what this government says with a grain of salt.

rob316

The social housing system has to be overhauled, cost rental should be championed, no way should you be getting a 350k new build for 30 quid a week. I live in social housing, looking to move and buy now and the council rent is too low IMO. 15% of income is too low for those that can afford it. People bitch about the council selling housing stock at huge discounts but the alternative, is rent out a property for about 50 years to a family and take in about 50 to 100k less maintenance.

maestroamado

I remember a minister saying just before the crash that we built 90,000 houses and it wasn't enough. Our population has increased by 500,000 since then and now 30,000 is what is being offered.

timmyntc

Where does the labour come from to build all this? They just assume enough construction workers & tradesmen will magic up out of nowhere.

There aren't many trades who are sitting idle right now - adding demand for another 30k houses per year will just inflate their prices, it wont get anything more built.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840105#Comment_117840105

I'm still in the deposit-acquiring stage but yeah, all looks like more price inflation. The shared equity thing is a nonsense as well. Prices will just go up to compensate again. Oh well.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840908#Comment_117840908

I think it goes something like this:

• We need to build more houses!
• Where will the labour come from?
• We need more immigration!
• Where will the immigrants live?
• We need to build more houses!

Circular reasoning perhaps.

Joking aside, this is not a "crisis" that we are dealing with, as I see it. What this is is the result of deliberate action by a compromised state to turn Ireland into yet another wealth-generating engine for neo-liberalist/globalist interests. This is happening across Western states, and I for one and deeply concerned about what will come of this.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840941#Comment_117840941

Yup - the only way to get tradesmen is to get more young people trained in the trades - increase capacity in training programs and try encourage more uptake in the trades.

mrslancaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840908#Comment_117840908

And extra construction workers need to live somewhere too...

Part 5 social requirement in new developments increasing from 10 to 20%. Lots of people trying to buy saying they are being outbid by funds & councils /ahb's who are buying extra in those same developments bringing the % much higher.

jill_valentine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840931#Comment_117840931

It's fairly ridiculous that a scheme ostensibly to help First Time Buyers is filling us with despair, but there you go, that's about right for housing policy in this country.

mrslancaster

Heard Eoin obroin yesterday, he didnt have too many answers about how to increase supply. He wants a 3 year rent freeze & government to stop landlords leaving the market. He called it a 'disorderly exit'.

Luxemburgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841052#Comment_117841052

How would you actually stop landlords leaving the market?

zom

We can build even million of new houses but if they go into hands of small group of "investors" they will keep prices artificially high (why they shouldn't) like it was 10 or 20 years ago. I have friends (couple) holding a vacant property in Dublin without any intention of using it, just enjoying its price constantly rising - so big international corporations can hold all quarters for decades...

This is real issue - not "expensive labor".

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840851#Comment_117840851

You should always take politics with grain of salt, it's not about "this government". The nicer it sound the less it should be trusted.

RingSting

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840908#Comment_117840908

Plenty of lads working in offices with trades since 2008 (myself included).

JDigweed

Just had a quick read through this last night. I think they are making a fatal mistake with the vacant properties. The amount of land with PP, vacant and derelict properties in this country is staggering. They should be crucifying anyone holding onto land without a good reason and if a derelict property cannot be redeveloped by the owner a CPO should be used immediately. Desperate times call for desperate measures

mrslancaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841089#Comment_117841089

He wants government to prevent them from selling, he said over 20000 had left in the past few years & it needs to be stopped. He's been talking about indefinite tenancies & an escrow system for deposits for a long time & they are both in this new plan.

Another thing is short term lets will be managed by Failte Ireland. How will that work? Will airbnb & private holiday home lets be gone?

jill_valentine

Rory Hearne reckons quarter of the allocated budget is HAP...

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841109#Comment_117841109

The question that no one asks is why the focus is build, build and build some more. In a world facing issues like the climate crisis and the unsuitability of infinite growth economics, I find the idea of constant expansion to be counter to the often stated goal of achieving "sustainability". Thus, when one hears that the goal of this plan is to build 300k "houses" in the next decade, one can't help but ask "what then?" Will there be another plan to build 400k houses by 2040 and so on? Where is this going?

To me, it seems to be the case that the intention is to ensure a constant demand for housing though an ever increasing population. In other words, infinite growth. This ideology is why are have a situation where a house bought for 12k in the 1970s is now worth 20-30 times as much. We have got to start thinking about future generations what we are leaving them. I do not want my nieces and nephews to grow up in an Ireland covered in high-rise apartment blocks.

lossless

Year after year after year, thoroughly informed decisions are made with precision regarding the housing "crisis".

And the invariable result is the continuation of the "crisis". A coincidence of incalculable ineptitude with billions of Euro's incidentally up for grabs, or intelligent design?

Two quite good articles here which should inspire an idea or two beyond the trojan horse mantra of "more supply will fix everything". It has not fixed anything, it is not fixing anything, and never will fix anything.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dezeen.com/2016/09/30/phineas-harper-opinion-on-the-uk-housing-crisis-that-isnt-a-crisis/amp/

And surprise, surprise, something from our own country. Fair play on identifying the problems, but note the hilarious refusal to join the dots among solutions. But it's a start in escaping the mantra of con-men. Much, much more is needed. Get to the roots, keep digging.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ramping-up-supply-will-not-resolve-ireland-s-housing-crisis-1.4647465%3fmode%3Damp

Housing in this country is a long con. People need to start seeing the forest instead of the individual trees plonked right in front of them.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841163#Comment_117841163

They should see if they can get someone to house HAP recipients for free.

Diarmuid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841177#Comment_117841177

If you are expanding the population, you have to expand the number of properties. So yes if you add 400k households by 2040 then you need 400k housing units.

"Ireland covered in high-rise" LOL. You could triple the population of Ireland and still have a lower population density than Germany has today.

I see a lot of blaming of politicians, vulture funds, social housing, etc for the Irish housing crisis. The reality we are in this position because for the past 40+ years this is what the majority of Irish voters wanted. NIMBYism, low density housing, property price inflation has driven us to this point. Any Irish people voted for it at every successive election.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841163#Comment_117841163

Well ya HAP or rent supplement shouldn't be there if we had our social housing or cost rental program in gear.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841298#Comment_117841298

This is the bare faced, blazingly obvious negation of everything these governments say, versus do.

They will make a purposeful, informed decision to allow 400k extra people to arrive here, while out the other side of the mouth they say they will *try* to build enough accommodation to solve the housing crisis, which just so happens to be about the same number.

What kind of idiocy has descended on the people of this country not to see the con? To see the purposeful intention and purposeful maintainence of this housing "crisis" for decades ahead?

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841255#Comment_117841255

I'd be very curious as to who butters Eoin Burke Kennedy's bread. He must be well serviced anyway. Especially when he is just outright wrong with this paragraph;

Ramping up housing supply has never once in our recent history improved affordability. Even at the high-water mark of construction in 2006, when a record 92,000 homes were built, property prices rose by 14 per cent. Back then the cost of construction was also soaring despite the fact we had an extra 100,000 construction workers in the country.

Such a simplistic argument that "increased supply in 00s did not result in lower prices, therefore supply is not the solution". He totally ignores the fact that it was credit which fuelled house price increases in the 00s, which meant they actually crashed, not just meandered down from these highs, post-2012 and also he ignores that the reason prices were so low in 2012 was because we actually had a stable supply in that there was plenty of choice for people. No time for that journalist.

lawrencesummers

We dont have a functioning housing market.

Young people are more and more disillusioned by the property market and the government are going to feel that backlash the next time votes are cast.

But dont underestimate the number of homeowners in the country who have seen the value of their house increase by 5-25% over the last two years. That people gone from negative equity, people able move to lower interest rates because their LTV is better. Some of these are parents whose kids cant move out, but not all.

There are two sides to every coin, don't forget that increasing prices suits a lot of people.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841298#Comment_117841298

Why would one want the population to grow thus? We're already facing an environment disaster due to over-consumption and pollution. More people is merely going to exacerbate that.

As for blaming politicians, I have never done that. If there is blame to be had, it rests squarely with the older generations who have utterly failed to consider the long term consequences of the direction they steered the country and have handed a monumental mess to their children/grandchildren. Blame, though satisfying to assign, doesn't solve the problem however.

FromADistance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841145#Comment_117841145

I'm sure there is... how many of them want back... ? Very few I would say. Would you go back being honest with yourself? What's stopped you to date?

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841398#Comment_117841398

" it rests squarely with the older generations who have utterly failed to consider the long term consequences"

It's all relative. If I look at the same level economies from 1980, the countries from the same economic levels was: Venezuela, Spain, Israel, Trinidad and Tobago.

They had elected a very different style governments, I don't see their young population having any better opportunities than in Ireland.

RingSting

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841471#Comment_117841471

The high chance of getting left high & dry again.

Personally yes I would go back and have worked evenings & weekends on site for cash .

Luxembourgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841152#Comment_117841152

That's sounds remarkably unconstitutional

O Brioin really hates the idea of people owning homes

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841379#Comment_117841379

We don't have a functioning property market because it has been orchestrated to be such.

It's not an accident, it's not natural phenomena, it's not coincidence.

As for both sides of the coin and how it suits some people, that number of people is vanishingly small. And you will find, in time, that they are the very people driving it. Quelle surprise.

As for the incidental, conscious parasites clinging to the beast and siphoning their drop of profit, no need to wonder about their lockstep parroting of complete horse shyte. "More building", "vacancy taxes", gimme a break.

For those unconsciously finding themselves "better off", innocents to some extent, they too will find that short term gain will be nowt compared to the final price, whether it be through simple capital gains tax through to burden of family chaos and all between.

The ones behind this are literally publishing their ill intentions, it's just done through different sources. The numbers are there for all to see. It's not so much breadcrumbs to follow as it is entire loaves of bread arranged in the shape of pointing arrows.

We're being treated like imbeciles and are responding like imbeciles. For years. It would be really nice if that could stop.

HerrKuehn

I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed when we finally get a SF government and realise the issues remain. A lot of other countries have a similar issue now with interest rates so low, Germany for example is practically the same as here now believe it or not.

.42.

None of this Government plan will work and will piss off a lot of people.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841842#Comment_117841842

This needs another thumbs up....

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841928#Comment_117841928

This isn't a governance issue, it's a corruption issue.

It has fook all to do with interest rates, supply issues, or any of the same goofballs that has been said year after year ad infinitum.

The whole thing is rotten to the core. And whether Sinn Fein or a farmyard goose is next to ride the wave of extruded money, it will remain a corruption issue behind the scenes until rooted out by the pubes and set alight.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841993#Comment_117841993

In what sense is it corrupt?

enricoh

So house prices went up 12% in a year and the government is going to throw a ball of money at an already overheated market. Makes perfect sense!

New helicopters all round for the developers!

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842001#Comment_117842001

The same crowd are, simulataneously,

1) promising to tackle the housing "crisis"

2) promising to build 300k "homes" by 2030

3) anticipating and facilitating the arrival of, current projections accounted, a net inward migration of an additional ~300k people

That in itself is the most egregious as it is raw, straightforward numbers.

They may as well be building tower blocks and filling them in with cement for all the impact it will have. But what most certainly is happening is the exchange of hundreds of millions of euros, billions even.

If that isn't bare faced lies about helping anyone but themselves, then nothing is.

Then there are the numerous offshoots arising from the purposefully maintained pressure, stores of offshore wealth, the sale of passports to "investors", government-backed guarantees of rent profit, guaranteed capital appreciation, guaranteed exit strategies and so on.

There comes a point where you have only two options of belief. You either believe that they have the collective intelligence of a bunch of grapes, or you believe that the "crisis" is an artificially created scheme to make money hand over fist.

Call it what you will, I call that sheer corruption.