Novavax and the lack of Vaccine Choice
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Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭
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The "early days" were a few years ago. The article on Moderna I linked to was from 2016. We're not talking about the 1980's here. The companies involved in the research either abandoned it entirely because of the risks around the vector(which hasn't changed BTW), or moved into vaccine research, the poor cousin, where because of the one(or two) injections the risks were considered low enough to plough on.
As I said; do I think the long term risks are high? Nope. However when it comes to otherwise healthy children or adolescents whose bodies are still growing where the actual virus itself has such a low level of risk of injury or death as to be barely quantifiable, I consider it a tad foolish and premature to be going about mass vaccinations in that demographic with this year old actual use technology.
Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.
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I see what you are saying. But someone might respond by saying that you are trusting the virus more than the vaccine. There are still lots of things we don’t know about this virus, including its long term effects. There are reports of organ damage in the context of long Covid.
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Right. And look, I'm well aware of what your position on vaccine hesitant people is, but you must believe me when I say that I have read the papers that are out there about LNPs. This isn't something trivial. I'm not dancing around in the daisies believing that a combination of God, crystals and my own rainbow farts will save me from a highly transmissible pathogen, and I'm not selfish. I take precautions for myself and my family, beyond what is recommended, and I take an antigen test before I visit anyone remotely vulnerable and offer to take one regardless of the vulnerability of whoever I'm visiting, because I'm not trying to make people feel uncomfortable or put anyone in danger.
I understand how the LNPs work, and if and when they are proved to be long-term safe as well as effective, I think they will usher in an extraordinary age of medical advancement that will save untold numbers of people from awful and debilitating disease. But for me personally that long-term safety has not yet been demonstrated, and can only be demonstrated with the passage of time. So I'm willing to shoulder the (currently) 0.0008% risk that I will die if I get infected and continue to go through the inconvenience of taking precautions and testing myself for the sake of the vulnerable people I come into contact with, until and unless a vaccine candidate emerges using a technology that has a longer term safety record, there is a sharp increase in the mortality rate of Covid-19 for an otherwise healthy person of my age, or enough time has passed that I am more satisfied that mRNA vaccines are safe in the long term (and with repeated, regular dosing, if six-monthly boosters are to be the expectation). No amount of peer pressure or government coercion is going to sway me one way or another when it comes to health decisions. I'm old enough to remember when there "just wasn't any potential" for these shots to cause any side effects beyond a sore arm and a bit of a fever.
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Sure, but while that is your decision to make, do expect to be challenged if you're always pushing the "long term effects" line (which the experts generally disagree with, there will always be a few dissenting voices who people try and latch onto) or expect others to see your decision as rational. The science available to us right now supports the use of the vaccines vs. the risk of the virus.
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I’m not pushing a line; I am explaining my position. Whether someone challenges me is not of any real relevance.
What the “experts” actually say, by the way, is that the likelihood of long-term negative side effects is very small. They know better than to suggest that it’s impossible. And it’s not a point on which I disagree with them. Were I an 80-year-old obese diabetic with heart disease, I’d be straight on my mobility scooter to bang the door down for a booster.
Alas.
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But you're still equating a vaccine, with all those trials, studies, development, years of papers into each component vs. a novel virus that emerged 18 months ago, and are happier to take the risk with the virus that emerged 18 months ago with known long term problems for those who get infected by it. Unless you're planning to isolate yourself for the next 3 years, your decision will be put to the test at some point and hopefully you'll be fine with it.
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“But you're still equating a vaccine, with all those trials, studies, development, years of papers into each component vs. a novel virus that emerged 18 months ago, and are happier to take the risk with the virus that emerged 18 months ago with known long term problems for those who get infected by it.”
I’m equating a new technology with unknown long-term safety parameters with a disease that currently has a very slim chance of seriously injuring or killing me, and which I am not in any way guaranteed to contract, is how I’d personally word it, but you do you.
I’ve already said that I’m taking a lot of precautions, as should others be, vaccinated or not, according to their own personal risk tolerance.
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"and are happier to take the risk with the virus that emerged 18 months ago with known long term problems for those who get infected by it"
I call bluff... if the virus is just 18 months old, then "long term problems" for those who get infected cannot be quantified. To make this simple, you cannot get a 6 inch turd down a four inch pipe. Sorry, the science cannot support your statement.
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I think you misread it, we have data on on the components of the vaccines going back years as well as numerous safety studies and tracking of all the effects, yet some people think the vaccine long term effects are riskier than a virus we only have 18 months of knowledge for and already have long covid diagnosed for within those 18 months vs zero effects from vaccines a week past dosing.
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As relates to vaccine choice....
people simply shouldn’t have a choice, shouldn’t have a capacity to demand...
if a person tomorrow is diagnosed with cancer, their consultant determines by various factors going forward...
1) course / type of treatment
2) location of treatment
3) doctors and team to provide that treatment
if a person is not in agreement, fine, go home get sicker...nobody should be of the ability to demand...
the vaccines have been approved by the HPRA.
what vaccine is simply administered based on availability and other factors..
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”I’m sorry to tell you you have cancer. Here’s what’s going to happen, you have no say, and if you don’t like it you can just **** off home and die.”
Some warped opinion you have of the Irish healthcare system and its staff in this weird dictator porn fantasy.
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No fantasy, I spent long enough in hospital four years ago so I’m well versed as to the machinations of health care.
i didn’t get to pick or choose my physio nor should I have been of that ability nor did I get to decide what time of the day I went there various treatments were available to me I accepted them or didn’t.
should be the same with vaccines.
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And of course your personal experience is everyone's.
If there were other options or methods available for your physio, do you think you should have been denied your preferred one? Do you imagine that, had alternative therapies been available at the point that you were seeking treatment, your physiotherapist would not have talked you through the options?
Do you also think every woman should only be given one option for contraception? If she wants a contraceptive coil, ought she be able to choose which sort of coil she gets, or should her doctor just tell her to take what she's given or **** off and keep her legs closed? Or maybe the choice between the various options is too much for you and we ought to just decide that every woman gets a contraceptive implant regardless of her wishes, and if she objects she must remain chaste or get pregnant?
If someone injecting insulin twice daily is offered by their doctor to switch to an insulin pump, but decides they'd rather keep injecting manually, should the doctor then withdraw their insulin prescription and tell them to "go home get sicker"?
What an extraordinary mind you have. Truly.
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Why are people who are so concerned about unknown long term effects of vaccines for which there is no evidence, always so totally confident that there aren’t unknown long term effects of the virus, something which has not been through rigorous trials like vaccines have and which we already know is causing long term symptoms in many people which we are yet to fully understand.
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Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Join Date:Posts: 59040
Oh I hear you Rev. I'm not trusting the virus more, or rather it depends on context. For the over 40's or those already suffering from conditions that make them more vulnerable I "trust" the vaccines far more. In the under 40's not suffering from such conditions I'd be more on the virus' side. In the under 20's far more. The stats are in; the risks of serious illness and death from covid 19 for those under 20 are vanishingly small. Oh well it'll help stop transmission. OK, yep it reduces transmission alright, but on the other hand we're also being told that we'll all be exposed to this pox, it's more a question of when than if. We were also told that transmission among schoolkids was not a big concern, so if it's not then why call for mass vaccinations of older schoolkids? There's quite a lot of contradictory stuff around this virus.
Though I suspect much of this confusion and variability is because we're really looking hard at this virus and have the tools to do so compared to outbreaks of the past of flu etc. I'd bet if we looked at seasonal flu as hard and with the current tools we have we would find that the "simple" flu wasn't as simple as we thought either. EG say flu and you'll have the inevitable "oh you'd know if you had the real flu" because of severity, yet flu can present in people quite differently, from asymptomatic, through little more than a headcold, to thinking you're dying and then wishing you were. And of course every year people can and do die from it, or complications from it and there are years when ICU beds are running low because of it. "Long flu" can be a thing too. I know someone who ended up with heart trouble after a bad dose of it a few years back.
Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.
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Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Join Date:Posts: 59040
Though we have very good healthcare in general, though like anything there is wastage and room for improvement, the level of choice involved certainly goes up depending on whether it's public or private and the more private, the more choice generally speaking.
On the vaccine front where it's being given out for free the choice of vaccine involved is entirely down to who is giving it out for free. The Irish government and HSE has pinned its flag to the mRNA route and that's that pretty much. To the degree that the other options J&J/AZ are being recalled from pharmacies to be destroyed. <- Irish times link.
From the letter from pharmacists to the HSE:
As pharmacists who work in the mass vaccination centres in Ireland, we wish to express our frustration at the National Immunisation Office policy to allow Janssen and Astra Zeneca Covid 19 vaccines be destroyed, while millions of people around the world have no access to vaccines.
Thousands of doses of Janssen vaccines have already gone or are about to go out of date, despite repeated requests for us at mass vaccination centres to distribute them to community pharmacies. There is a cohort of Irish citizens that only want a Janssen vaccine, this has now been denied them, and consequently they remain unvaccinated
Now the vaccine rollout has been an unalloyed success for our health service and those that organised it, but the above is a fcukup and no mistake. They're hellbent on just one route.
Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.
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Allow me to let you in on a little secret... you seem to be forgetting who pays taxes in this country, therefore - as a paying citizen I have a RIGHT to demand a reasonable level of service. Just because a jumped up little public servant has forgotten that SERVANT is in their job title doesn't mean I can't tell them to f**koff. It's high time a cohort of people in this country were put back in their box and told to actually earn their crust.
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Not only the logistics of time, but the waste that would bri g about from spoilage. Huge chunks if the world are still struggling to get vaccines, and we can't let one go to waste while this is the case as they need them.
Not just that, but we need them to get them too, to try and mitigate future mutations and variants.
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On the vaccine front where it's being given out for free the choice of vaccine involved is entirely down to who is giving it out for free. The Irish government and HSE has pinned its flag to the mRNA route and that's that pretty much. To the degree that the other options J&J/AZ are being recalled from pharmacies to be destroyed. <- Irish times link.
Absolutely sickening to read. As someone who is between 35 and 49 the J&J vaccine was for some unknown reason denied to my age cohort. To see these vaccines go to waste is nothing short of incompetence.
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It is not the case because the government is currently running a planed vaccination program that was so far hugely successful and you don't change a thing in something that has proven to be hugely successful.
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I think this is the issue I'm having for some clearly well educated people.
"I've calculated the risk of being infected with SARS-COV2 and developing COVID-19, a virus which will attempt to kill me and cause organ damage if my immune system can't react fast enough and without full knowledge of the long term effects as it's only been around 18 months".
Vs. the "you monster, what if my head falls off after 5 years" reaction to this:
"Here's a vaccine that has been through multiple safety trials using technology that has been through multiple safety trials that will virtually eliminate the risk of severe disease from COVID-19 and reduces transmission rates substantially, it has been administered to over a billion people and vast databases are being kept on that safety data accompanied by continued studies and research"
That choice is one that people are making, it's not a rational decision, it's driven by emotion and gut feeling and what's worse is when they try and push that decision onto others.
(this is of course leaving out all the crazy anti-vaxxers, the hawthorn tea, followers or robert malone, mark of the beast, new world order craziness, and also those who drop in and repeat lies into every thread around transmission rates and viral count etc, get called out, get proven wrong yet swan off to do the same elsewhere).
Initially I was in the 60% needed camp, hell, last summer when vaccines were going through studies and case counts were in single digits, it looked like inoculating the vulnerable would be the beginning and ending of it, but data around the variants changed that and it looks like 80%+ is needed to get back to normality, and if you're not in that 80%+ then you're a big part of the problem in returning lives to normal for the better.
Reading the Irish Times article:
They're only planning to destroy expired vaccines, these are ones that can't be sold and can't be exported anymore.
They want to add the excess to the cold chain supply and get them back into the system where they could be exported, I'm doubtful this will happen, countries only seem to want "fresh" supplies from the manufacturer and there have been a lot of "near expiry" or "second hand" doses being destroyed, which is awful, but a lot of humanity is stupid. I doubt they will go anywhere but into the cold chain supply, then expire, then be destroyed due to the logistics of finding a country to use them. I don't think they're at the stage where they will be offered privately, yet. And honestly, supply doesn't seem to be the big problem anymore as much as getting countries who don't trust their health system to take it (witness the Russian own goal of denigrating western vaccines while internally they don't trust their own vaccine). China has of course led the way and done over a billion doses in the last couple of months using the military to drive military precision.
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There's one thing I completely disagree with you Wibbs, we just simply don't have very good healthcare in general. Not even close.
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Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Join Date:Posts: 59040
Compared to our EU neighbours I'd agree with you X, but on a worldwide scale we're pretty good, though like I say god knows it needs improving and cutting out the rot and wastage.
Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.
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Yup, I agree with you on much of that. But the interesting thing (to me) is that the Venn diagram of "people most insistent that everyone get vaccinated" and "people who strongly oppose making (e.g.) Novavax available to those who are hesitant to take other vaccines" is almost a perfect circle. Which begs obvious questions.
I'd personally be wiling to pay privately for a vaccine I was comfortable taking. I'm fortunate to be in a situation to do so. And if, as someone suggested in this thread, it "wouldn't be worth opening the vial", then I'd happily pay for the vial and let less well-off people who would prefer that particular vaccine take the other nine doses.
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Paying taxes enables you to receive a service... and it should be a quality of service.... paying taxes doesn’t give the right to demand and receive what you want as an individual.
i pay taxes too, I can’t ‘demand’ the council put traffic lights at the end of our road, I can ask and put a case forward... I can’t as a taxpayer demand that the local school starts at 9.30 as opposed to 9.00 as the extra traffic is an inconvenience... could ask...I suppose.
you could tell them to fûck off, but being abusive towards people won’t show you in a good light... and when I worked with / for the public, I ensured without fail that anybody that abused me over the phone went to the back of the Q of my consideration / worklist / attention and if they kept it up they’d be informed neither I or my colleagues or the company would accept them contacting us or enabling their custom...
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Who has said they're totally confident that there aren't unknown long-term effects of the virus? If SARS-CoV-1 is anything to go by, there will almost certainly be some.
And since we know that people who are vaccinated can still be infected (especially with Delta), and have a similar viral load to those who are not, how can we be sure that the vaccine, though protective against initial severe disease and death, is protective against any long-term effects of getting infected? The answer is that we can't be sure - for the same reason that we can't be sure with regard to the long-term effects of vaccination. It is a question that will only be answered with the passage of time.
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Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Join Date:Posts: 59040
"I've calculated the risk of being infected with SARS-COV2 and developing COVID-19, a virus which will attempt to kill me and cause organ damage if my immune system can't react fast enough and without full knowledge of the long term effects as it's only been around 18 months".
For such a worldwide event that has caused such havoc, covid 19 is about the single least dangerous pathogen that has led to a pandemic in the history of the planet. The actual unassailable facts as far as serious illness and death goes is that if you're under retirement age and not already fecked as far as general health goes, the risks of becoming seriously ill and/or dying from this pox are remarkably low. If you're under 30 they're damned near non existent. Even if you're older and your health is fecked the odds are still on your side. The median age of death from covid 19 in Ireland is a year older than the average longevity for Irish men and a year under the average longevity for Irish women. It's a bloody tragedy for you and your loved ones if you're one of the tiny minority who are affected of course and of course it has impacted the ability of health services to keep up(which says as much about how health services are organised these days. We'd be utterly and completely screwed if this was a more deadly pox), but at the same time we're kinda losing the run of ourselves on the panic front too. If you believe this pox "will attempt to kill me" then you can say that about any pathogen, even a headcold. Indeed the common cold family of viruses are significantly more deadly to isolated groups like uncontacted tribes than covid is. These are words of hyperbole and panic. They are not the words of real world facts.
Here's a vaccine that has been through multiple safety trials using technology that has been through multiple safety trials that will virtually eliminate the risk of severe disease from COVID-19 and reduces transmission rates substantially, it has been administered to over a billion people and vast databases are being kept on that safety data accompanied by continued studies and research
I'm sorry no Astro that bit in bold is not quite true. The technology of mRNA vaccines is very new and has only been tested in the wild in the last year. The technology of mRNA itself has been around for longer and the same technology was stymied by the risks of dangerous side effects. Risks that were so clear that human trials weren't considered and most of the companies researching it bowed out and investment drifted away. The ones left went into the previously low return on investment vaccine end of things, because they had to, since danger is usually down to dosage and the one and done of a vaccine would be safer. Those "multiple safety trials" are a year old. No matter what position one holds, you quite simply can't claim long term safety based on short term trials. That's magical thinking, not science. We can guess, but we can't know yet.
I don't think they're at the stage where they will be offered privately, yet.
Why not? The pharmacists have noted a preference for the J&J/AZ over the mRNA among the population. If this means more people vaccinated that won't be otherwise surely that's a good thing?
witness the Russian own goal of denigrating western vaccines while internally they don't trust their own vaccine. China has of course led the way and done over a billion doses in the last couple of months using the military to drive military precision.
With Russia it's far more about not trusting the authorities rather than the vaccine. Similarly in many ex Soviet Bloc nations. Regretable if understandable considering their histories on that score. And anytime China "leads the way" in anything a part of me puckers up.
Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.
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First paragraph is your own take, I'm talking about people who worry about the long term risks of a vaccine passed through safety trials vs a virus which also has no long term data and deciding on the virus.
You can argue about whether enough is known and enough safety trials have happened for the components (and the fact that you took an AdenoVector vaccine means you're clearly happy with the safety vs. the virus risk, or took it to get on with things), but the components have been around longer and studied for longer than the virus, I do wonder if CVST issues would have been known about had the ebola vaccine become more widespread, of if the data was always there but ignored because Africa. You keep on banging on about the early days of mRNA, but that's been true of pretty much every new technology and there is nothing untoward there that would point to any major issues as the science has developed. Am I worried about the long term of the virus and long COVID? Not really, am I much less worried about the vaccines given I have one myself, yes, I've read enough and studied enough both pre-vaccine and post-vaccine for it not to be even the slightest inkling of an issue for me (and the increased Wi-Fi speeds are only a plus and I quantum encrypt all my messaging anyway).
I'm fine with the vaccine being offered privately (a good way to recoup some taxes), but I'd guess the visibility of it is something they want to avoid right now "Ireland selling public funded vaccines on the private market while Mexicans go without", now that's capitalism, but all countries (bar a few in ME) seem to be following the same process there and it will probably be next year or longer before vaccine choice becomes a thing (boosters and annual jabs will also likely be free). I don't believe the likes of Pfizer have signed any private contracts yet, or if they had, are supplying on them, but interested to know if they have.
What has been funny is watching the entitled who usually buy their way through life go to great lengths to get jabs (the Canadians flying to another district, the poor St. Gerard's teachers, those on here who were trying to register in NI). I would say that I wasn't worried about myself enough to try and jump queues and was perfectly happy to wait my turn, but was concerned for my parents and a few of their friends, but again, no qualms about them getting AV over mRNA.
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I don't think they will be offered privately either, fwiw. Whatever the logic of it, given some countries are destroying expired vaccines and whatnot, I think there would be uproar if rich Westerners were getting their preferential vaccination privately while the vulnerable populations in the developing world remain largely unprotected.
I'm really not much of a globalist myself, but given that a pandemic is by its nature a global event I always thought it would be a better strategy to protect the vulnerable globally first, before looking at other demographics.
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Some people, like the late Nuala O'Faoilean, do refuse chemotherapy and other cancer treatments
Doctors can issue a "take it or leave it" approach to anything but human beings are going to make their own choices. Is the 'goal' to get people to get vaccinated or to get them to shut up and do what they're told?
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