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The Delta variant

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    That's it in a nutshell. It is ok saying have a booster, but no one knows how long that lasts or what the safety is of it. It's just a bit of an experiment really. Hopefully it works out for Israel as they have now boosted 50% of the over 60's already.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,623 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    The Israeli prime Minister has said that senior citizens not getting the third shot leaves them in "mortal danger". Clearly he thinks the first two doses have completely failed in that cohort to use such strong words. I guess they will be in the same position again in another 6 months when the boosters also wane?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    That's what i have been saying for weeks now, obviously they trust the data and reacted straight away. However they did explain why they were doing it and explained to the public like grown up's and not 4 year old's, the public understood and stepped forward on mass.

    All of these vaccines have been great really. For them to even fight things that never existed when they were developed is a bit of a miracle really.No doubt when another variant turns up other vaccines that maybe people think were no good work better than the others. Quite ironic in a way.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.


    Seems to be getting ridiculous

    Everyone including young people needing constant vaccination against something most dont notice

    And no end in sight to restrictions and damage to economy

    Surely there's another way



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Well you'd hope there'd be some checking out of hospital cured in that period too

    So not a meteoric rise like that@



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,328 ✭✭✭bloopy


    What will happen here?

    If the vaccine wanes after six months then will we looking a situation where the most vulnerable will have waning protection just as we enter into the one time of the year that they will need it the most.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    People need to acknowledge it is a possibility first and react, or just wait for more real world data to come out and see if it is probable or not.

    It is looking more obvious by the day that it is not the vaccines waning per say, just that they seem to be more durable when there was a longer gap between first and second doses. Everyone did a longer gap with AZ and looks like it is not waning. Canada & UK did longer gap between doses and have no problems with Pfizer waning.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    That includes discharges and admissions.

    It's gone up from 50 in hospital on 9th July to 259 on August 16th

    Cases were 400 avg then, now 1800 a day, hence the over 400% jump in hospitalisations, unless cases drop dramatically, hospitals are going to get very busy soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Well the gap between AZ doses wasn't great either, as mentioned before I got AZ in early May and tested positive with most likely Delta variant (going by symptoms) in mid July, whilst waiting on 2nd dose.

    I hear AZ and Johnson/ Jansen are no longer being used, presumably when the HSE offered them to younger age cohorts, they were met with a stony silence. We can see of course why the HSE wanted to use the AZ on the 60-69 age cohort and save a few bob. Likely now they'll be trying to line up the Romanian Pfizer left overs to same age cohort.... which will go down like a lead balloon.



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  • Posts: 18,962 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    at the time of age 60-69 vaccination range being vaccinated it wasn't a case of saving money but rather vaccine availability.

    that's obvious

    (Mid April to Mid May)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    I'm not a doctor but from my own experience the flu vaccine barely lasts 3 months, remember my mother getting them and being recommended to not get it too early in the season as by the end of the season it's already worn off.

    Seems to be similar issues with these vaccines and maybe 3 month boosters will be needed long term, they are talking about J&J vaccines being quietly discontinued, a one shot vaccine doesn't work well when boosters are going to be introduced.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,394 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I haven't seen any evidence that J&J doesn't work well. You'll have to quote a source because a SA report found even after 8 months it was still effective in HCW's.


    I'm not sure whose discontinuing the J&J vaccine, hard to imagine J&J discontinuing it.

    As for Ireland, as we have all adults offered a vaccine and all that's left is young children and as only Pfizer and moderna have been approved for 12+, it's pointless for Ireland to be still taking delivery of both J&J and AZ unless they want to stockpile it? I'd rather it's redirected to countries who need it than sit in an Irish fridge.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 938 ✭✭✭Steve012


    There's no new variants at all. It's different types of coronavirus,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    I meant the repeat booster model doesn't work well with a single dose vaccine, can't really give people a booster from a vaccine that's meant to be single dose only. People are not going to question that and will be a hard sell by J&J.

    A 3rd, 4th dose Pfizer/Moderna will be used for the booster roll out by the look of things

    Discontinued as in no one is buying them anymore, J&J are not going to come out and say they are being discontinued, they will phrase it more attractively, due to drop in demaand etc, but no doubt it's on the way out thanks to the booster model being implemented



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,957 ✭✭✭kirk.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Were are we on this wave?

    Still on way up, top or way down?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,574 ✭✭✭JTMan



    Interesting speculation that the cause of the Pfizer waning in Israel might be the dosing interval between dose 1 and 2. In Israel, they used 3-4 week gaps. Just like Ireland. Other countries that used 8-12 week gaps are not seeing Pfizer waning yet. Not good sign for Ireland.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It was a bad idea from the start in ireland.

    First doses were good protection from alpha and would have brought down infections quicker eaelier in the year.

    UK know there stuff with vaccinations, before they left eu were eu vaccination hq.

    AZ and pfzier all work better after longer gaps, makes sense.

    Holohan wanted full protection to older people asap.

    Need to booster same people now then so especially nursing home residents.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,017 ✭✭✭jackboy


    We need to urgently give the third shot to the vulnerable, they need to be considered at high risk now.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Israel is a lesson resting on your laurels.

    We can use this to start with boosters to people who got jabbed earliest and work down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,623 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Is there any evidence that boosters are going to work? For longer than a few months? Any evidence about the side effects of 3 mrna shots in less than a year?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Who cares at the moment re length of immunity?

    Israel are just trying to get over a Delta wave as are we.

    We will piggy back off UK booster trial data coming out later this month.

    Thats how NIAC will approve.

    At this stage we should just follow UK broadly in their decisions.

    Israel and UK were early starters to vaccinate.

    Who seems more in control of Delta wave at present with 50 million DANGEROUS doses of AZ in britons at present to the superior Pfzier?

    I have to say its probably the best vaccine rollout in the world given the size of its population.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    The unintended outcome of Delta is that it is acting as a vaccine to some and a booster to many. When it burns out here we may be in a good position barring a newer variant.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I reckon end of September we will be in a strong position.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Easy eh, you just need to explain everything to the idiots in charge now.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Where’s your proof it’s a better strategy?

    UK CHR is worse than ours at 3%, so you can’t say they are more protected against severe disease

    We are at 2% CHR, which is very good

    UK hospitals are busy btw, many surgeries are being cancelled, they just don’t moan about it like our HSE



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭AlgerShane


    It’s all down to booster vaccines imho. They’ll be the only thing to stop new variants in their tracks. Don’t forget the Lambda variant from Peru which was a slight concern there about a month ago…



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    1. One dose against Alpha in Spring was very effective at bringing down to their Alpha wave quickly and effectively.
    2. The big 12 week gaps between ALL vaccines have meant unlike Israel they are not panicing with boosters just yet.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,837 ✭✭✭quokula


    Their current rolling average is 90 deaths per day compared to Israel’s 18 which is not far out of line with the relative populations. Same goes for infection rates. The UK is doing slightly better overall, probably due to a level of natural herd immunity from having some of the highest infection rates in the world through the majority of the pandemic, not to mention the thinning out of their population of vulnerable people with well over one hundred thousand dead last year.

    So when you look at the hard numbers it’s not really that the UK is doing better than Israel, it’s that Israel is taking the situation more seriously and moving to third shots to get it back under control, while the UK government is ignoring the numbers and pretending everything is fine, like they have for much of the pandemic.



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