FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

We're not quiet there yet with the ECM, it shows ridging possible at the very end of it's run but there is still an area of low pressure very close to Ireland bringing rain on the final frame.

GFS does look good but the 6z isn't as good as the 00z and tries to break down the high before the end of it's run, but still it gives 3 or 4 fairly decent days.

I would like to see the GFS sticking to it's guns with high pressure over the next week and in another few days hopefully the ECM and GEM will show this trend as well. We will know for sure later in the week towards next weekend.

I think we need another 4 to 5 days before we may see something more reliable appear across all models. ECM is still too unsettled for my liking right up to 240 hours, similar with the GEM. GFS 6z has dialed back on the warmth a bit compared to recent runs but still gets there with some high pressure at least but temperatures on latest run not exactly exciting. The signals for improvement are alot better than the cloudy, damp and relatively cool muck we are getting at the moment.

As we all know the past two weeks have been very different to the rest of the summer with some very wet conditons, excessively wet in places and Mullingar out on it's own with rainfall above 600% over the past week. Alot of this heavy rain was associated with thunderstorms and monsoon style showers. The models have struggled greatly over the past 10 days flipping between dryer and warmer conditions but always backing down and continuing the Atlantic onslaught.

However, I think we're starting to turn a corner with dryer and warmer signals for the second half of August. The ECM 42 day models are pointing towards much more in the way of high pressure and anti-cyclonic conditions lasting into early September. We will see over the next few weeks if this verifies. Now back to the extended range of the short term models.

The GFS 12z is bringing back high pressure big time next week with the jet stream being pushed back up over Iceland and the Azores high setting up business across Ireland and the UK. We stay relatively unsettled for another week but changes could be on the way from Wednesday 18th of August as the Azores attempts to ridge in from the south-west bringing a lift up in the temperatures.

By Sunday 22 August High pressure is well and truly in control of the weather on today's GFS run.

We finish up at +384 hours with high pressure still in control of the weather.

If this verifies, now this is a big IF, temperatures would be back in the low 20s widely and maybe mid 20's at times, but we are unlikely to see the high level heat of the July hot spell, but if we see upgrades to this it is still possible to get high twenties during the final days of August but we would need a direct hit of prolonged high pressure and very warm winds to see these sort of temperatures.

I would like to see this trend continuing over the next week to have any confidence in this and more of the members agreeing with the operational run, but the trend for warmer and dryer conditions look good.

The GEM is also trying to bring in warmer and dryer conditions up to the end of it's run at 240 hours, but perhaps not as overly settled as the GFS

The ECM short range is also starting to run with the idea of high pressure building next week.

Of all the models the GFS looks best for sustained high pressure and dry weather. After so much rain in recent weeks and the soil now soaking, we need a decent dry and settled spell to dry out the land before Autumn and for a last blast of summer.

Still up in the air with warm and dryer conditions. In terms of FI charts we have now run out of August and indeed summer with latest charts now running up to 1st of September. The promise of warm and settled conditions has been 7 to 10 days away for the past month. We have a few dry days coming up but temperatures remaining close to average. We look unsettled for the coming weekend but may get some dryer and brighter weather next week, the final week of August. We shall see.