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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    That is one grim ECM this morning. Let's hope it's an outlier.

    Has anyone figured out how to embed GIFs on this new Boards platform? Indeed, is external embedding of images possible at all or do they have to be uploaded directly?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The ECM is a bit of a horror show alright, the GEM was making progress with settled conditions yesterday but is now also back to cool and unsettled from beginning to end.

    GFS still the most settled of the 3 but not as good as recent day as it shows a mostly north/south split with cool and unsettled conditions just to our north and warm and sunny just to our south. I think overall we're beginning to lose the trend towards dryer and warmer weather.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭External Association


    GFS hopeful from next Thursday for settled 3-4 days min. ECM run this evening not so.



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Next Thursday = 19th?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,806 ✭✭✭Jizique




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's unsettled right up to the 3rd week of August. ECM and GEM are unsettled all the way through to +240 hours with no let up in the Atlantic onslaught.

    GFS is mostly unsettled up to August 20th and hints at settled down after this. However this introduction of more settled conditions looks flimsy and may not last more than a few days.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM a bit better today then what Met Eireann is showing for next weekend but true that bands of rain not far away. ECM showing it to becoming more settled and warmer ( low 20'S ) into the early days of next week, GFS slower to get there but an improving outlook, GEM not there on the current run UKMO showing LP move towards us the weekend ( ECM has this area of LP blocked out by ridging building over Ireland ?? ).

    Uncertainty but that is better than if they were all in agreement of poor weather I reckon.





  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The good looking charts didn't last long, Met Eireanns forecast matching the 12Z ECM output : 'NEXT WEEKEND: Current indications suggest low pressure will dominate with showers or longer spells of rain likely. Temperatures look likely to remain close to where they have been during the week: around average'.


    Both ECM and GFS end up with a cut off low near Biscay at +240hrs



     




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    As we all know the past two weeks have been very different to the rest of the summer with some very wet conditons, excessively wet in places and Mullingar out on it's own with rainfall above 600% over the past week. Alot of this heavy rain was associated with thunderstorms and monsoon style showers. The models have struggled greatly over the past 10 days flipping between dryer and warmer conditions but always backing down and continuing the Atlantic onslaught.

    However, I think we're starting to turn a corner with dryer and warmer signals for the second half of August. The ECM 42 day models are pointing towards much more in the way of high pressure and anti-cyclonic conditions lasting into early September. We will see over the next few weeks if this verifies. Now back to the extended range of the short term models.

    The GFS 12z is bringing back high pressure big time next week with the jet stream being pushed back up over Iceland and the Azores high setting up business across Ireland and the UK. We stay relatively unsettled for another week but changes could be on the way from Wednesday 18th of August as the Azores attempts to ridge in from the south-west bringing a lift up in the temperatures.

    By Sunday 22 August High pressure is well and truly in control of the weather on today's GFS run.

    We finish up at +384 hours with high pressure still in control of the weather.

    If this verifies, now this is a big IF, temperatures would be back in the low 20s widely and maybe mid 20's at times, but we are unlikely to see the high level heat of the July hot spell, but if we see upgrades to this it is still possible to get high twenties during the final days of August but we would need a direct hit of prolonged high pressure and very warm winds to see these sort of temperatures.

    I would like to see this trend continuing over the next week to have any confidence in this and more of the members agreeing with the operational run, but the trend for warmer and dryer conditions look good.

    The GEM is also trying to bring in warmer and dryer conditions up to the end of it's run at 240 hours, but perhaps not as overly settled as the GFS

    The ECM short range is also starting to run with the idea of high pressure building next week.


    Of all the models the GFS looks best for sustained high pressure and dry weather. After so much rain in recent weeks and the soil now soaking, we need a decent dry and settled spell to dry out the land before Autumn and for a last blast of summer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Well in to the last month of summer now what's the rest of the month looking like?



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Still up in the air with warm and dryer conditions. In terms of FI charts we have now run out of August and indeed summer with latest charts now running up to 1st of September. The promise of warm and settled conditions has been 7 to 10 days away for the past month. We have a few dry days coming up but temperatures remaining close to average. We look unsettled for the coming weekend but may get some dryer and brighter weather next week, the final week of August. We shall see.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Charts holding the more settled weather now for next week, drier but not without some rain in places at times but amounts should be small, temperatures improving into the low 20's, in general light winds , bright spells but would think some days a bit cloudy in parts. Looking like pleasant enough late summer weather.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models in good agreement of Hp being dominant out to +240hrs. Predicted rainfall amounts quite low at this stage . Currently showing up to mid 20's next Fri, low 20's Saturday and then high teens - touching 20C in places for the following week to the end of the run, nights mild enough still.









  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    High Pressure the main feature in the main models out to +240 hrs and showing it to remain dry.


    Next Saturday showing a bit higher temperature on the latest runs with up to 23C in parts and Sunday in the South might still hold good temperatures. Next week temperatures in the high teens touching 20C or so and possibly in the mid to high teens by the end of the week.





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