Micheal Martin- we saved 2245 lives, apparently

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 8:53am #1

On July 1st, Micheal Martin made a surprising revelation during leaders questions that went almost entirely overlooked, and attracted seemingly zero critical assessment, regarding what would have happened if we took the Swedish approach- the vast majority of the economy kept open with a few basic restrictions on capacity, opening hours et al.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-opposition-grows-to-plans-to-delay-return-of-indoor-hospitality-1.4608222

According to MM, we would have suffered 2245 further Covid related deaths.

Now, the below article a- pre dates the post Christmas surge and b- is written by Sorcha Pollak, who isn't a real journalist, but probably had to be given something to do because lockdown meant she couldn't be sent out to interview her regular types in their free homes moaning about how bad we treat them, but there is no reason to assume the figures would differ greatly from the numbers post Christmas.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:BV5sBWZVuJEJ:https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/over-93-of-people-who-died-with-covid-19-had-underlying-condition-cso-1.4402354+&cd=13&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

93% who died had an underlying condition. Not all of these people were already on death's door, but a great many, probably a majority, of them, were.

Of the 1450 aged over 65 who died while suffering an underlying condition, 725 of them were aged 83 and over, so one can assume the vast majority of the rest were not far off the age of 83, which in itself is a good age to live to. And anybody who has spent much time around elderly relatives will attest that most of them have a fairly come what may attitude to death as the years go on- as the body starts wearing out living forever for most seems a chore than an aspiration.

Extrapolated to the figure of 2245 MM gave us, we can assume that only 208 of these people would not have been sufferers of a serious underlying condition (7%).

That leaves us 2037 people, all suffering a serious underlying condition. Of these 2037 hypothetical people, going by the actual cases that happened, 1018 of them would be 83 years old and over, and the bulk of the rest would be within touching distance of 83.

I think it would be reasonable to assume that a majority of people around the age of 83 who were suffering from serious conditions in, to start off, March to September of 2020, have since passed away from said conditions.

I think it would be reasonable to assume that most people of around that age who are currently seriously ill will not live to see NYE 2022, and that is being generous.

It is fair to assume that a great deal of these people have no quality of life left. They are immobile, in many cases mentally detatched by senility, Alzhemiers etc.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:TtQ-ikmbNvsJ:https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/study-reveals-nursing-home-death-rate-1.747254+&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

1/5 of nursing home residents die within 3 months of admission, for some perspective on the state of health of many involved.

In effect, MM announced that an operation that has tanked the economy, put us up to 40 billion euro in debt, skyrocketed the cost of housing, lead to God knows what sort of increase in suicides (Garda armed response call outs to mental health episodes involving barricading/ hostage taking doubled since lockdown 1 which is a good indicator as to the state of the nation's mental health), cancelled cancer screening/ treatments for thousands of younger people, all of this seems to have been for to save the lives of 2037 who have by and large since died of the conditions they already had, or will do so in the next year or so.

It prevented 208 unexpected deaths in presumably younger cohorts. These individuals are lucky. Less lucky are the many times 208 who died, or will die, from suicide, untreated cancers, or simply stress (I can only imagine the rate of death from heart attacks will show a considerable upswing when the stats for 2021 are finalised. If we thought the initial 2020 lockown was bad it had nothing on this year).

That Micheal Martin has not been pulled up for a critical analysis of this figure shows the breathtaking collaboration between the media and the government in propagating this absolute farce.

07-08-2021 8:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058202740/micheal-martin-we-saved-2245-lives-apparently

I love how the lack of critical thinking is called out so eloquently in a post completely devoid of any critical thinking

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718684#Comment_117718684

I should have known such a post would attract the NPHET shills from my "3rd vaccine" thread 🙄 Lads, this is for serious debate of some basic maths- whether or not our lockdown actually saved 2200 people who are mostly still alive and kicking and will be for a long time to come, and whether the trade off for suicides and untreated cancers, and stress related deaths, was worth it.

If you want to have some sort of love in for Tony H or want to paint anyone skeptical of the approach as wishing to set up an Auschwitz for the elderly, take it to another thread.

pjohnson · 07-08-2021 9:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718684#Comment_117718684

It fills out the complete bingo card of scutter.

Bonus points for bringing in a whine about housing aswell.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718684#Comment_117718684

More specifically, I whipped out the calculator, and the brain one, and did me a few mathz. If you could get yours out, and, as they used to say in school, show your workings was it?....that would be a lot more enlightening than a few throwaway comments.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718698#Comment_117718698

Maths please, maths.

circadian · 07-08-2021 9:07am

Tldr: shoulda let them die so I could have scoops.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:08am

Tough crowd already.

The TLDR version for those who get confused by numbers- was saving circa 2000 people who have likely since died anyway really worth it, particularly considering deaths of younger cohorts directly linked to lockdown via suicide, cancelled treatments, missed scans, stress induced heart attacks etc.

Fighting Tao · 07-08-2021 9:08am

Your post seems to boil down to:

“Basic maths” because it suits your agenda not to think too much.
Screw the elderly because you are inconvenienced.
make claims that many more lives were lost without evidence. On this, cancer services were still operational, suicide charities came out at one point and declared figures being thrown around on social media were false.
Everyone is a shill because they point out the flaws in your posts.
the big bad government is part of a conspiracy that you don’t define as any critical thought process would prove you wrong.

pjohnson · 07-08-2021 9:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718706#Comment_117718706

Your "3rd vaccine" thread showed you struggle to count to three, maths aint your strong suit.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718715#Comment_117718715

3- (because the others aren't worth responding to) If Garda call outs to mental health episodes doubled during lockdown it is only rational to believe that suicides would also see an increase.

Did most of the rational posters leave the site after the odious reboot?

Fighting Tao · 07-08-2021 9:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718727#Comment_117718727

You can’t say that though. Maybe they decreased because the call outs increased and people were helped.

So what is your reply to cancer services continuing. I know a few people that treatment continued, and scans provided. The HSE hack had more of an impact on them than the pandemic when it came to detection and treatment.

I think your definition of rational differs to the dictionary definition. Rational thought comes with critical thinking.

07-08-2021 9:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718695#Comment_117718695

Median=/= all

pre-existing condition=/=about to die

life expectancy at 83 = ca. 7 years

presence of pre existing conditions at 83=certainty

Your “sums” we’re fine. The maths however was below remedial as assumptions were laughable

Hoboo · 07-08-2021 9:16am

"Sorcha Pollak is an Irish journalist based in Dublin working for The Irish Times with a specific focus on migration and immigrant communities in Ireland. Before joining The Irish Times Sorcha lived in London where she worked for the Guardian newspaper and TIME Magazine. She has also lived in Peruvian city of Iquitos, New Delhi, Seville and Paris. She has a BA in European Studies from Trinity College and an MSc in Media, Communication and Development from the London School of Economics".

She's had five reports in the Irish Times in the last 5 days. I'd say she's a real journalist.

magicbastarder · 07-08-2021 9:16am

"Sorcha Pollak, who isn't a real journalist"

are we sure the OP is a real poster?

The J Stands for Jay · 07-08-2021 9:19am

To summarise OP, they believe that each person's life is not worth €17.8m.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:27am

It's actually amazing.

We have people here who are loyal to a government whose health minister (Harris) said in April 2020 that we could forget about pubs until a vaccine was released (at the time a projected three years away)

You have faith in a government/ NPHET that released a report in October 2020 blaming a September surge entirely on pubs, but omitted any effect schools and colleges re opening would have had. A governmen that made no link between the East European surge beginning later than in the West and the meat plant outbreaks happening straight after, all due to an unwillingness to interfere with EU freedom of movement

We place trust in a body that throughout 2020 into early 2021 claimed that foreign travel was a hyped bogeyman that only contributed to 5% of cases, which is why we organically grew from about 6 cases per day in July to 8000 in January

You blindly believe a government that claims that arguably the darkest period in our national history since the Famine has resulted in little to no increase in suicide, even though the last recession, in comparison an absolute cake walk to this (you could at least emigrate for work, or go for a pint), resulted in a surge.

This forum is a scary insight into how media manipulation and fear has turned a tiny but vocal minority of the public into nothing but garbage bins, eating up the latest government edicts and diktats. The only saving grace is that I have met absolutely zero, not one, single member of the public who thinks like you people do, at least none who are under a certain age (older people who buy the daily paper and watch the TV news only tend to be more susceptible to it)

07-08-2021 9:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718772#Comment_117718772

It’s actually a scary insight into how the gullible are so easily taken in by assorted fringe lunatic elements due to a desire in feel “in the know”

Fighting Tao · 07-08-2021 9:31am

Loyal to the government? Hahahaha. No, people have some cop on when there is a pandemic that may kill or harm them or their loved ones.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718749#Comment_117718749

That is actually the perfect summing up of it. Particularly for the bulk here who get a bit upset at too many figures being thrown about.

Let's just assume the absolute codology being spouted here, that most people who died were not on death's door anyway and that lockdown didn't result in deaths by other causes. Is each life saved actually worth 17 million euro of additional debt? By that logic we would have permanent Garda checkpoints and speed cameras every couple of km to make drink driving and speeding not just illegal but absolutely impossible to do.

Fighting Tao · 07-08-2021 9:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718791#Comment_117718791

So how much is a life worth to you? €1, 50c, or maybe nothing?

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718742#Comment_117718742

A journalist is meant to report the facts, independent of their own personal opinions and bias. Sorcha has on at least two occasions run interviews with asylum seekers (one of them was from Brazil!) where they explicitly state in the article that they are facing no danger at home and are in the system for reasons of economic convenience. Her failure to press the issue with her interviewee shows she isn't a journalist, she's an activist with a weekly column.

A bit off topic, but seeing as you brought it up.....

Former Former Former · 07-08-2021 9:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718709#Comment_117718709

It's the natural order of things. Weed out the sick and the old so the rest of us can thrive.

I'm sorry but that OP is genuinely evil. Absolutely chilling. Reducing people to numbers and (totally nonsensical) percentages and deciding which of them should have been allowed to die. I don't know where to start with that.

If he/she had a parent in a nursing home, I wonder would he/she have the same perspective?

Shameful. OP, take a breath and reconsider whether taking a dig at a politician is worth all this. If this is really how you think then you need psychiatric help.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:37am

Of all the replies on the thread thus far, not one has actually taken any issue with the stats posted. It's all just "shoot the elderly" stuff.

I shall not be replying to, or even reading, any replies that don't counter my argument with any sort of actual rebuttal beyond shoot the elderly.

Fighting Tao · 07-08-2021 9:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718808#Comment_117718808

You say that you want to let the elderly die in your opening post, so you can’t complain When people pick you up on it.

I challenged your non-figures on suicides, cancer and other patients and you have hidden from it. You don’t want to discuss they either. What is the point of the thread then except to have a rant?

Hoboo · 07-08-2021 9:44am

The smoke begins to clear...

The J Stands for Jay · 07-08-2021 9:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718797#Comment_117718797

About tree fiddy.

07-08-2021 9:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718800#Comment_117718800

Where’s she should have reported “brown people trying to steal all our money”?

Former Former Former · 07-08-2021 9:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718808#Comment_117718808

Your fundamental issue is assuming that anyone with an underlying condition would have died anyway. That's utter bollocks.

Basically everyone over 65 has some underlying condition. My dad (71) has high blood pressure, he'll probably live another 20 years, but should I just go down and strangle him now?

But the worst was deciding that people in homes have no quality of life and thus aren't worth protecting. If someone has Alzheimers or profound disability, most normal people would say that these are the people who MOST need our help. You went the other way and decided they should be left out with the bins.

Stop trying to win the argument on the internet and think about what you're saying. If you still think you're right, then I'll repeat my advice to seek help because you are mentally ill and a dangerous person.

JPup · 07-08-2021 9:52am

Ireland’s economic growth rate has been higher than Sweden’s since the start of last year. In fact, it has been the fastest of all OECD countries. So there has been no economic trade off for our lockdowns.

You have to make the argument then that it would have been worth letting those 2,000+ people die for social reasons. But even in Sweden they were avoiding large gathering etc. So it’s not like it was life as normal.

Would you be willing to risk your parents life to be able to have gone out to the pub or for a meal a few months earlier than we were able to? Seems like a terrible deal to me.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 9:54am

This is actually scary. 17.4 million euro per life saved of people who have mostly since died anyway, and a net loss of people due to suicide, cancer, stress related heart attacks etc.

It is actually terrifying that people like the respondents here have a vote, but sure that's why these bastards are allowed to get away with it, that's why not one of them will ever face trial for what they have done.

pjohnson · 07-08-2021 9:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718800#Comment_117718800

Says the OP who mentioned her in his OP.

Most of your rubbish has been soundly answered over the last 12 months.

Ficheall · 07-08-2021 9:57am

I think there were fewer "assumptions" in Wiles' 129-page proof of Fermat's last theorem.

Former Former Former · 07-08-2021 9:59am

Boards.ie has no shortage of people who hate the government and are incredibly anti lockdown, anti masks or anti vaxx.

Yet no one has agreed with the OP. No one has even done the "Well, I don't agree with everything he says but..." routine.

OP, does that not tell you something? This is genuinely off the wall mental stuff and the absence of the cavalry coming over the hill should be a red flag, even for you.

Edit : wait, this is the guy who can't count to three? Aaaah. Now I see.

magicbastarder · 07-08-2021 9:59am

"And anybody who has spent much time around elderly relatives will attest that most of them have a fairly come what may attitude to death as the years go on- as the body starts wearing out living forever for most seems a chore than an aspiration."

'old people yearn for the sweet release of death'.

pjohnson · 07-08-2021 10:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718882#Comment_117718882

Yep. He cant count to three and is banging on about "simple maths"

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 10:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718882#Comment_117718882

It's quite early. Most of them are probably having a lie in after a hard week in work. Unlike most of the lockdown enthusiasts.

The pro lockdown brigade here are probably up early for once because the PBP have a march on in town.

crooked cockney villain · 07-08-2021 10:06am

I will say one thing.

I am glad I don't live in your world. And I am particularly glad I have never encountered people like you lot within my world. It is scary, and it is a subculture I really didn't think existed outside of the pronoun loons on Twitter.

gravity10 · 07-08-2021 10:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058202740/micheal-martin-we-saved-2245-lives-apparently

What is the population of Sweden, how many people contracted covid, how many people died?

What is the population of Ireland, how many people contracted covid, how many people died?

What is the population of England, how many people contracted covid, how many people died?

You're being accused of a lack of critical thinking which must seem terrifically unfair, so exhibit some, run the numbers based on comparable facts not influenced politically or journalistically. reduce it to a percentage if you must - but the number dead (if we went the Swedish route) is a good deal more than the figures in your original post. Once you've ran the numbers, put a price on each one so you can value human life monetarily based on the economic figures.

I could give less of a **** about political potentates, journalists, and naval gazers. One of my business partners is 33, on autoimmune meds, and if she contracted covid she could very well die - please tell me how much her life is worth - I'm all ears.

The J Stands for Jay · 07-08-2021 10:06am

What's this about counting to three?

Former Former Former · 07-08-2021 10:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718909#Comment_117718909

The OP started another thread ranting about needing a "third" vaccine to go for pints.

But it turned he'd actually only had one vaccine and thought that should be enough.

As well as being an authority in eugenics, statistics and economics, he's also a leading immunologist.

hynesie08 · 07-08-2021 10:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718909#Comment_117718909

The op can't.

magicbastarder · 07-08-2021 10:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718907#Comment_117718907

insert 'am i out of touch? no, it's the children who are wrong' gif.

The J Stands for Jay · 07-08-2021 10:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718935#Comment_117718935

Ah, that guy. I went into that thread expecting it to be giving out about the Pfizer booster, and was a little surprised....

pjohnson · 07-08-2021 10:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718973#Comment_117718973

How could you not know 1+1=3

Gary Scrod · 07-08-2021 10:28am

Stay safe, OP. Stay home.

shesty · 07-08-2021 10:40am

I'd take the view that MM can throw out all the maths he likes but we won't actually know how many people were saved or died as a result of all of this for another few years, if ever.

We may have tipped the balance in favour of saving people from Covid through restrictions, but equally it is highly possible that we weighted it much heavier on the side of everything else that can kill people in the next 5-10 years - be it through mental health problems, reduced hospital capacity, people delaying GP appointments, increased hospital lists, and the works.It's a very short-sighted topic for MM to open up.

Donald Trump · 07-08-2021 10:58am

OP, your understanding of the situation is not particularly strong.

It is not the case that if there were no restrictions that the only impact that there would have been was the 2700 people who would have died. The "17 million cost per person" calculation makes no sense.

There simple fact is that there would have been chaos in the health service, likely ending up costing multiples of any amount spent over the past 18 month on prevention.

Donald Trump · 07-08-2021 10:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719055#Comment_117719055

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0430/1213042-cso-excess-deaths/

2300 more people died in those 12 months compared to what would have been otherwise expected.

ressem · 07-08-2021 11:22am

You don't provide statistics though. You're adding in "I think", "assume" and doing questionable sums on the numbers.

Underlying conditions may only reveal themselves when the body is placed under stress. You may find that you have a long-standing underlying condition that complicates treatment after being hit by a car. Or it can be stress on your system from being overweight, lung issues from your work environment.

An athletic & fit colleague of mine passed away this year; yes I'm confident as I can be that she would had decades of life had it not been for covid.

Your comment about deaths for untreated cancers; what makes you believe that the hospitals would have been in a better place to treat them with an greater level of covid patient demands for quarantined beds, medications, doctors and nurses?

The 40 billion cost. Broken down as business supports, wage subsidies, health increased expenditure. Had Ireland's government taken the Sweden-alike path, there still would have been a necessity for a lot of this, as internal and external trading and tourism decreased.

"I have met absolutely zero, not one, single member of the public who thinks like you people do, at least none who are under a certain age". You're contradicting yourself in one sentence. As we age we get to know a more varied group of people, and many are lovely people, being considerate about their vulnerability to infection is not a hardship.

As for loyalty to government?

They failed to get protective measures for care homes. They failed with getting people to wear masks earlier. They pretty much immediately gave up regarding testing and tracing. Did/do you see anyone checking people for having a fever / cough before travelling?

What covid results do you think you'd get if you checked the commuters on a Friday evening train? I'd guess more infections than the Healy-Rae pub.

A lot of the government measures and spending are politically driven. Business supports and wage subsidies. What Irish election party would not have done those?

Mostly water under the bridge at this point, but have we learned anything to apply / avoid in case of a Covid / SARS 2029?

Repeat closing the schools and churches? Close the airports / quarantine air passengers earlier and not whinge about "EU treaties don't allow us?".

Risteard81 · 07-08-2021 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719132#Comment_117719132

Mostly due to the effects of so-called "lockdowns".

Micheal Martin- we saved 2245 lives, apparently

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