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Micheal Martin- we saved 2245 lives, apparently

  • 07-08-2021 7:53am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    On July 1st, Micheal Martin made a surprising revelation during leaders questions that went almost entirely overlooked, and attracted seemingly zero critical assessment, regarding what would have happened if we took the Swedish approach- the vast majority of the economy kept open with a few basic restrictions on capacity, opening hours et al.


    According to MM, we would have suffered 2245 further Covid related deaths.


    Now, the below article a- pre dates the post Christmas surge and b- is written by Sorcha Pollak, who isn't a real journalist, but probably had to be given something to do because lockdown meant she couldn't be sent out to interview her regular types in their free homes moaning about how bad we treat them, but there is no reason to assume the figures would differ greatly from the numbers post Christmas.

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:BV5sBWZVuJEJ:https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/over-93-of-people-who-died-with-covid-19-had-underlying-condition-cso-1.4402354+&cd=13&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

    93% who died had an underlying condition. Not all of these people were already on death's door, but a great many, probably a majority, of them, were.


    Of the 1450 aged over 65 who died while suffering an underlying condition, 725 of them were aged 83 and over, so one can assume the vast majority of the rest were not far off the age of 83, which in itself is a good age to live to. And anybody who has spent much time around elderly relatives will attest that most of them have a fairly come what may attitude to death as the years go on- as the body starts wearing out living forever for most seems a chore than an aspiration.


    Extrapolated to the figure of 2245 MM gave us, we can assume that only 208 of these people would not have been sufferers of a serious underlying condition (7%).


    That leaves us 2037 people, all suffering a serious underlying condition. Of these 2037 hypothetical people, going by the actual cases that happened, 1018 of them would be 83 years old and over, and the bulk of the rest would be within touching distance of 83.

    I think it would be reasonable to assume that a majority of people around the age of 83 who were suffering from serious conditions in, to start off, March to September of 2020, have since passed away from said conditions.

    I think it would be reasonable to assume that most people of around that age who are currently seriously ill will not live to see NYE 2022, and that is being generous.

    It is fair to assume that a great deal of these people have no quality of life left. They are immobile, in many cases mentally detatched by senility, Alzhemiers etc.



    1/5 of nursing home residents die within 3 months of admission, for some perspective on the state of health of many involved.


    In effect, MM announced that an operation that has tanked the economy, put us up to 40 billion euro in debt, skyrocketed the cost of housing, lead to God knows what sort of increase in suicides (Garda armed response call outs to mental health episodes involving barricading/ hostage taking doubled since lockdown 1 which is a good indicator as to the state of the nation's mental health), cancelled cancer screening/ treatments for thousands of younger people, all of this seems to have been for to save the lives of 2037 who have by and large since died of the conditions they already had, or will do so in the next year or so.


    It prevented 208 unexpected deaths in presumably younger cohorts. These individuals are lucky. Less lucky are the many times 208 who died, or will die, from suicide, untreated cancers, or simply stress (I can only imagine the rate of death from heart attacks will show a considerable upswing when the stats for 2021 are finalised. If we thought the initial 2020 lockown was bad it had nothing on this year).

    That Micheal Martin has not been pulled up for a critical analysis of this figure shows the breathtaking collaboration between the media and the government in propagating this absolute farce.



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain



    More specifically, I whipped out the calculator, and the brain one, and did me a few mathz. If you could get yours out, and, as they used to say in school, show your workings was it?....that would be a lot more enlightening than a few throwaway comments.



  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain




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  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    Tough crowd already.


    The TLDR version for those who get confused by numbers- was saving circa 2000 people who have likely since died anyway really worth it, particularly considering deaths of younger cohorts directly linked to lockdown via suicide, cancelled treatments, missed scans, stress induced heart attacks etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    3- (because the others aren't worth responding to) If Garda call outs to mental health episodes doubled during lockdown it is only rational to believe that suicides would also see an increase.


    Did most of the rational posters leave the site after the odious reboot?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,717 ✭✭✭ Fighting Tao


    You can’t say that though. Maybe they decreased because the call outs increased and people were helped.

    So what is your reply to cancer services continuing. I know a few people that treatment continued, and scans provided. The HSE hack had more of an impact on them than the pandemic when it came to detection and treatment.


    I think your definition of rational differs to the dictionary definition. Rational thought comes with critical thinking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    Median=/= all

    pre-existing condition=/=about to die

    life expectancy at 83 = ca. 7 years

    presence of pre existing conditions at 83=certainty

    Your “sums” we’re fine. The maths however was below remedial as assumptions were laughable



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭ Hoboo


    "Sorcha Pollak is an Irish journalist based in Dublin working for The Irish Times with a specific focus on migration and immigrant communities in Ireland. Before joining The Irish Times Sorcha lived in London where she worked for the Guardian newspaper and TIME Magazine. She has also lived in Peruvian city of Iquitos, New Delhi, Seville and Paris. She has a BA in European Studies from Trinity College and an MSc in Media, Communication and Development from the London School of Economics".

    She's had five reports in the Irish Times in the last 5 days. I'd say she's a real journalist.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 42,393 Mod ✭✭✭✭ magicbastarder


    "Sorcha Pollak, who isn't a real journalist"

    are we sure the OP is a real poster?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,211 ✭✭✭ The J Stands for Jay


    To summarise OP, they believe that each person's life is not worth €17.8m.



  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    It's actually amazing.


    We have people here who are loyal to a government whose health minister (Harris) said in April 2020 that we could forget about pubs until a vaccine was released (at the time a projected three years away)

    You have faith in a government/ NPHET that released a report in October 2020 blaming a September surge entirely on pubs, but omitted any effect schools and colleges re opening would have had. A governmen that made no link between the East European surge beginning later than in the West and the meat plant outbreaks happening straight after, all due to an unwillingness to interfere with EU freedom of movement

    We place trust in a body that throughout 2020 into early 2021 claimed that foreign travel was a hyped bogeyman that only contributed to 5% of cases, which is why we organically grew from about 6 cases per day in July to 8000 in January

    You blindly believe a government that claims that arguably the darkest period in our national history since the Famine has resulted in little to no increase in suicide, even though the last recession, in comparison an absolute cake walk to this (you could at least emigrate for work, or go for a pint), resulted in a surge.

    This forum is a scary insight into how media manipulation and fear has turned a tiny but vocal minority of the public into nothing but garbage bins, eating up the latest government edicts and diktats. The only saving grace is that I have met absolutely zero, not one, single member of the public who thinks like you people do, at least none who are under a certain age (older people who buy the daily paper and watch the TV news only tend to be more susceptible to it)



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    It’s actually a scary insight into how the gullible are so easily taken in by assorted fringe lunatic elements due to a desire in feel “in the know”



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,717 ✭✭✭ Fighting Tao


    Loyal to the government? Hahahaha. No, people have some cop on when there is a pandemic that may kill or harm them or their loved ones.



  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    That is actually the perfect summing up of it. Particularly for the bulk here who get a bit upset at too many figures being thrown about.

    Let's just assume the absolute codology being spouted here, that most people who died were not on death's door anyway and that lockdown didn't result in deaths by other causes. Is each life saved actually worth 17 million euro of additional debt? By that logic we would have permanent Garda checkpoints and speed cameras every couple of km to make drink driving and speeding not just illegal but absolutely impossible to do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,717 ✭✭✭ Fighting Tao


    So how much is a life worth to you? €1, 50c, or maybe nothing?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    A journalist is meant to report the facts, independent of their own personal opinions and bias. Sorcha has on at least two occasions run interviews with asylum seekers (one of them was from Brazil!) where they explicitly state in the article that they are facing no danger at home and are in the system for reasons of economic convenience. Her failure to press the issue with her interviewee shows she isn't a journalist, she's an activist with a weekly column.


    A bit off topic, but seeing as you brought it up.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,886 ✭✭✭ Former Former Former


    It's the natural order of things. Weed out the sick and the old so the rest of us can thrive.

    I'm sorry but that OP is genuinely evil. Absolutely chilling. Reducing people to numbers and (totally nonsensical) percentages and deciding which of them should have been allowed to die. I don't know where to start with that.

    If he/she had a parent in a nursing home, I wonder would he/she have the same perspective?

    Shameful. OP, take a breath and reconsider whether taking a dig at a politician is worth all this. If this is really how you think then you need psychiatric help.



  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    Of all the replies on the thread thus far, not one has actually taken any issue with the stats posted. It's all just "shoot the elderly" stuff.


    I shall not be replying to, or even reading, any replies that don't counter my argument with any sort of actual rebuttal beyond shoot the elderly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,717 ✭✭✭ Fighting Tao


    You say that you want to let the elderly die in your opening post, so you can’t complain When people pick you up on it.

    I challenged your non-figures on suicides, cancer and other patients and you have hidden from it. You don’t want to discuss they either. What is the point of the thread then except to have a rant?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭ Hoboo


    The smoke begins to clear...



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,211 ✭✭✭ The J Stands for Jay




  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    Where’s she should have reported “brown people trying to steal all our money”?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,886 ✭✭✭ Former Former Former


    Your fundamental issue is assuming that anyone with an underlying condition would have died anyway. That's utter bollocks.

    Basically everyone over 65 has some underlying condition. My dad (71) has high blood pressure, he'll probably live another 20 years, but should I just go down and strangle him now?

    But the worst was deciding that people in homes have no quality of life and thus aren't worth protecting. If someone has Alzheimers or profound disability, most normal people would say that these are the people who MOST need our help. You went the other way and decided they should be left out with the bins.

    Stop trying to win the argument on the internet and think about what you're saying. If you still think you're right, then I'll repeat my advice to seek help because you are mentally ill and a dangerous person.



  • Registered Users Posts: 741 ✭✭✭ JPup


    Ireland’s economic growth rate has been higher than Sweden’s since the start of last year. In fact, it has been the fastest of all OECD countries. So there has been no economic trade off for our lockdowns.

    You have to make the argument then that it would have been worth letting those 2,000+ people die for social reasons. But even in Sweden they were avoiding large gathering etc. So it’s not like it was life as normal.

    Would you be willing to risk your parents life to be able to have gone out to the pub or for a meal a few months earlier than we were able to? Seems like a terrible deal to me.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    This is actually scary. 17.4 million euro per life saved of people who have mostly since died anyway, and a net loss of people due to suicide, cancer, stress related heart attacks etc.


    It is actually terrifying that people like the respondents here have a vote, but sure that's why these bastards are allowed to get away with it, that's why not one of them will ever face trial for what they have done.



This discussion has been closed.
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