Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

We actually exceeded the worst-case modelling at Christmas.

Some people are now trying to argue that the modelling was wrong because we haven't seen predicted hospitalisations and deaths, and this is coming after we made a policy change not to proceed with reopening indoors because the modelling suggested it was risky. It's exhausting dealing with people who don't seem to understand that modelling predicts the future if you don't make a change, it's not a crystal ball and the future will be different if you make changes.

If you are vaccinated Covid is no longer new to your immune system. If you get a headcold from the virus, or give someone else a headcold, it's not going to be the end of the world and we'll get on with our lives. Certain vulnerable groups and people working with them may need boosters. It sounds from the NPHET press conference today that we may be close to that point of normality thanks to the strong uptake of vaccines.

Great model I think banks used same one prior every recession.

So surely then we should expect massive waves of cases and deaths in neighbouring countries with less vaccine penetration if the modelling had any merit?

When has nphet modelling been relatively accurate? Genuine question. The major focus on the models I can recall was in October when there were figure rolled out to justify level 5 none of which materialised. Case numbers actually fell as level 3 restrictions kicked in but this was swept under the carpet.

at Christmas there was a gross under estimate of case numbers understandably as alpha wasn’t factored in.

In April they were was talking of 7,000 cases a day in may and June

The latest models figures on icu and deaths seem way off.

I accept there may have been occasions when they have been more accurate but can’t recall them.

What I can’t understand is when a control factor changes why they can’t produce a new set of models. Why aren’t we more agile here. It would take some time but surely they have enough days now to revise the models produced a month ago

Ceadaoin "Well thats not going to happen with vaccines that don't stop people becoming infected or transmitting the virus, is it? "

Well, tell the virus to fcuk off then.

You've made some sweeping disgusting statements there, but to be expected I guess.

My daughter, age 17 was one of those 'vulnerable' but strangely, she wasn't obese. But has a complicated immuno health system. Do you suggested that there's enough done for her now, she's got the vaccine and needs to step aside for the likes of you to live your life?

Agree on the disgusting generalisations being made, even last night this poster said when we look back most that have died will have lived longer than their life expectancy or have had an underlying issue because they were obese. Absolutely disgusting generalisation along with insulting to the many families who lost loved ones.

As for the rest, I think once people are vaccinated they'll have to get back to normal life, those who might be vulnerable still should in my opinion consider mask wearing in crowded settings for example. It's a difficult balance I feel

Obesity is 2nd only to old age as a risk factor

I know it’s offensive but being overweight is a huge risk factor

Yes it is indeed a risk and I don't think the issue is with the risk here, the issue however is that poster has suggested that when we look back only those who were past life expectancy and those who were obese will have died. That's an absolutely disgusting take on it, highly insensitive and highly insulting to the families of those who's loved ones passed away in the last 18 months, that they all fall into either of those groupings.