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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Oops. Wrong button.



  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Ahh cool. Interesting. So an ordinary QR scanner can't read it, or otherwise people would be creating their own QR codes I suppose. Surprised to see my details pop up so quick, though I shouldn't have been I guess. Presumably the background to this app is identical across EU, so why the delay?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭muddypuppy


    QR scanners can in fact read it, but they don't know how to understand the data in it, so you might get different results depending on the scanner - but usually it's going to be "no usable data found".

    People can create their own, the specification is public. What you can't do is sign the data with the correct key (which only the EU/HSE/other european agencies have) have, so the app will detect an invalid signature and error out.


    All the data is stored in the QR code itself - the idea is that you can validate that the pass is valid completely offline. The data is name, surname, signature, status of vaccination (kind, numbers, dates), status of recovery (date) and/or status of test (which kind of test, when), and a few other fields. What then should happen is that the app read this, validates the signature, and then depending on the laws/rules calculate if the cert is valid for some activities and show a green/red tick.

    This is mostly what happens with the government checker, but for some reason the validation of the signature and the "decoding" (from binary data to text) is done server-side, as in the content of the code is sent to a server, then the data in it is returned along with the signature status, and then the client decides to if it wants to show a green/red tick. It's kinda weird to be honest, and makes validating this offline impossible.

    Yes, it's a standard across the EU. No idea why there isn't a common app to be honest. You could download for example the Italian app (VerificaC19) and read your code.

    This is a nice article on the actual technical background, if you're interested https://gir.st/blog/greenpass.html



  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Thanks muddypuppy, interesting. Yes, I had downloaded a QR program for the sake of it and got reams of lines of nonsense data as you say. Thanks for the link to the background.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Was it a member of nPHEt

    crowd of anti vaccer’s with more influence than most



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    If anyone ever wonders how nations and leaders in history were allowed commit unimaginable atrocities, it was because of attitudes like above. No value whatsoever on liberty



    wanting misery for the sole purpose of being able to gloat on others


    grim



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Thanks for laugh and for proving my point. Comparing a vaccine passport to being complicit in mass murder is a level of warped beyond comprehension for any sane person. Just absolutely crackers lol.

    As I said earlier let the fruit loops enjoy getting wet. Be sure to pack a rain coat, me and the rest of genocide crew will be dry inside. Enjoy the outside Martyrdom and freedumb.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,965 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Was going to leave it , but the utter sxxxe from that guy that's being thanked and lapped up by some very gullible people on here deserves reply.

    Vaccination among healthcare workers is up in the 90% for Covid . Voluntarily, I might add .

    Flu vaccination in recent years was in the 60 s . Because Covid is not the flu .

    Some of the posters here have shipped over from the Relaxations thread because a) a few are banned there ,and b) nothing going on there now as pubs etc are open .

    Here we are with a successful vaccination campaign that has reduced serious illness and deaths ,and most cases are mild , moderate in those admitted with underlying conditions mainly , but yet somehow the posters who are now posting here are trying to rewrite the mayhem that happened in our hospitals , particularly in the early months this year .

    Do I have to explain again how sick people were, even the few that tested positive when admitted for something else , because only emergencies were being admitted then as we were swamped ...or that when cases were so high in the community health care workers got infected and passed it onto vulnerable patients in some hospitals ?

    This has been discussed and gone into in depth over all these Covid threads.

    Yes this did increase the numbers , but these outbreaks were detailed before the hack. And numbers of patients tested in hospital or suspected cases tested on admission were also detailed.

    It makes little difference as the burden is the same , as patients with Covid or anything else with this infectious disease still put pressure on beds, isolation facilities and nursing care like no other infectious disease any of us have ever seen in our lifetime .

    The fact that now when we are coming near the end of this that some would now be trying to disingenuously ingratiate themselves on the thread having (re) reg'd 10 or 11 days ago , calling it all a hoax , just beggars belief .

    The only difference clarity in the numbers would make is to show people that our vaccinations are in the main working and that some of those that are being admitted now are not swamping the system .

    I know some of the hospitals in the NI are under pressure even with less severe illness , due to the high numbers of "moderate" cases being admitted .

    Hopefully that won't happen here at the rate our vaccinations are going and that we are only now opening up , and I am genuinely feeling positive for the first time in the last 18 months .

    ICU cases are 40% older residual cases but the rest are new admissions , very sick people ..

    That is all I have to say about that .

    As for the exact breakdown of numbers presently in hospital ..It was within Dr Leo's remit to ask for clarity on this whenever ,, which would have been more in his line to do a year or more ago , but no doubt this is a move to improve his image before the next term of Taoiseach comes around especially after his party's poor show at the recent bye election , so we can brace ourselves for more of the same .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,446 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    10 more cases than this day last week. Perhaps too soon to say we've leveled off, would need a few more days but certainly looks like it on the 7 day average




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    As for the exact breakdown of numbers presently in hospital ..It was within Dr Leo's remit to ask for clarity on this whenever ,, which would have been more in his line to do a year or more ago , but no doubt this is a move to improve his image before the next term of Taoiseach comes around especially after his party's poor show at the recent bye election , so we can brace ourselves for more of the same .

    While the link between cases and hospitalisations was consistent it didn't really matter. Now that has changed and that link looks to be broken with numbers not getting anywhere near NPHET claims so they become real life data for the government to use, especially to push back on modelling and to make other decisions about easing restrictions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,771 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Not seeing the explosion at all, I wonder have we peaked around 1300 per day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,124 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    Wait for tomorrow, Wednesday bump and stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Hospital increases are moving very slowly and probably unlikely to shoot up at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Cases don't matter now, just hospital numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,235 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    I wasn’t implying that you made it up, but if there’s no capacity in the private system surely I would have had a similar wait time.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • Posts: 220 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    At the start of July, NPHET told the Government that it needed to retain the ban on indoor dining for three weeks, and after that to introduce a system of discrimination based on vaccination status to access indoor dining.

    This was based on the following projection of numbers from 1st July to 30th September:

    9dc8fbe5-d97b-45cb-863d-29e7f7513e77.jpg

    It is beginning to look as though NPHET's modelling has been catastrophically flawed, with serious economic consequences and social divisions arising as a direct result of this modelling.

    It now looks likely that even their projections for the "no delta variant" aren't going to be met on any of their four metrics, except - just maybe, and just by a whisper - the number of cases, and that their projections on the influence of the Delta variant have been - to put it politely - utter fantasy.

    A full public inquiry now must be held into NPHET's activities during the pandemic, encompassing all meeting notes and recordings, internal communications, private WhatsApps and e-mails between NPHET members, and how and by whom decisions were made on the advice given to the elected Government with the intention of achieving a change in its policy. The compiling of this projection and its communication to Government appears to have been either incompetence or sabotage.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,965 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    They weren't " claims " ..it was projections based on variables , which changed even while those models were being worked through.

    NIAC recommendations for vaccination with AZ and Jand J for younger age groups and subsequent ramping up of the vaccination program to include those down to 18 and now 16 and 17 year olds. Also the fact that indoor hospitality was pushed out another week while this was happening has ensured we are now way ahead of previous projections and will more likely have most of the population over 12 offered a first dose before end of August .

    Big difference to what could have happened if we had followed the same path of infection as NI , for example.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Given the models are so far out they are now claims. You'd fire economists for models like this! Models are useful to work with, but if they are the only thing driving government policy they need to be a whole lot more reliable. There are issues around these types of models and maybe when this is all over they'll look at adding other variables like public responses.



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    We've had over 21000 cases in July alone from what I can add up, so I'd suspect the optimistic model is probably closer to what may happen, if things remain as they are for case numbers


    Or perhaps somewhere in between no delta and optimistic if we see a drop



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    On cases maybe but rest is more like no Delta!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,965 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    They always have confidence intervals built in though .

    Some people just take the headline from the journalists that go with the most extreme and then come back a few weeks later with " see they were manipulating / massaging the figures ! " .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,663 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    I'm out of this board now. It's extremely worrying and scary the level of support for the vaccine passports. If anyone thinks it will stay at just these vaccines they are idiots. They are already talking about 6 month boosters (something an effective vaccine shouldn't need.) Easy to make those compulsory too with the vaccine/"health" pass. Sign up for it and you have to do whatever is dictated to you indefintely in order to participate in society. Have they said that they will only be in place for duration of the pandemic or set an end date for their use?


    It's taken centuries to build western societies and to have the freedoms and equality that we all take for granted. Sad how people are willing to give it all away just like that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    NPHET have themselves covered so far

    "It is noteworthy across all scenarios that case counts rise very slowly during July 2021. However, the seeds of future growth are sown at this time, and case counts increase exponentially through August 2021 until a combination of vaccine-induced and infection-induced immunity slows growth through September and October 2021. "



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Confidence intervals are only as good as the data input and the assumptions underlying them. Some of that was clearly wrong. The biggest mistake IMO was to look to the UK as a model of what would happen. The table above shows just how far out they are but they are the "sobering numbers" that they presented to government. TBH I don't mind them being wrong but plamasing the rest of us as an explanation and not admitting they got things wrong does cast doubt on their credibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Are we not on track to surpass their optimistic scenario cases _if_ cases plateau now, and without everything even being (officially) open?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    The basis of the advice was really Central 1 & Central 2, numbers we may not even reach by Christmas!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    This lad hoped the numbers would go up! Absolute looper!!




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,965 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    I don't disagree with you , as I have said similar .

    The big issues that changed our outlook from that of UK was postponing indoor hospitality and ramping up our vaccinations , which was the right thing to do, so if that dubious modelling got us to our goal of reducing the impact of Delta to negligible, I am ok with that .

    Others may not be, as I appreciate nobody likes being told what looks like porkies but is in fact just not as clear as it could be .

    I can guarantee that no enquiry or tribunal after the fact will place any blame on any health official as has been the case since the state was founded ! ;)

    Not saying that is right , mind you .

    Post edited by Goldengirl on


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