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The Delta variant

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Are you forgetting vaccines? I doubt that there will be decisions to make in August.



  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How so?

    If we are testing 20k per day and detecting 500 cases, is your contention that if we tested 100k we would find 2500?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,204 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    Why, because of high case numbers? We need to move on from this irrational fear of "de numbers". Whilst the vaccines have not completely broken the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths, they have severely weakened this relationship. And as more people get vaccinated, this will only weaken further. Cases in 2021 are not the same as cases in 2020. After 16 months of incessant media coverage, maybe people need to be reconditioned into thinking this way and learn to accept that we will always have cases, and unfortunately some deaths. Life isn't without risk. And I'm not for a minute saying "open up" a la the UK, but I just don't accept these doomsday prophecies. It seems as if some (and I'm not directing this towards you OP) would love nothing more than another lockdown if only to say "I told you so".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,777 ✭✭✭brickster69


    20K / 500 = 1 in 40 positive cases positive

    1,000,000 / 40,000 = 1 in 25 cases positive

    30% of UK cases are people without symptoms. That would mean 12,000 people / day running around spreading it and not isolating.Imagine the mess

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,609 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Wasn’t it inevitable that cases would rise given the known increased transmissibility of the delta variant but that vaccines were preventing a corresponding rise in numbers of people in hospital or in ICU or have I misunderstood that ?



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 12,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Another 63 daily deaths in UK.

    It would be interesting to see the age profiles of current hospitalised cases and deaths in UK, to see if there are any changes with the Delta variant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,777 ✭✭✭brickster69


    I reckon 70% under 40 going into hospital & 90% of deaths over 50 of which most will be fully jabbed. Just a guess like.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]



    Delta Variant mortality rate in UK to date (9 July Report):

    0.2%


    Under 50 0.0% (Some deaths but statistically small).

    Over 50 1.9%


    SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think you are twisting statistics and you know it.

    Reason vaccinated already is they are higher risk than unvaccinated.

    Delta caused unbelievable harm in India.

    Alpha on average had mortality rate of 2% in UK.

    Delta on average has mortality rate of 0.2% in UK (1.90 >50 years of age 0.00<50 years).

    Vaccines reduce risk by around 10 fold.

    If an 85 year old has a risk of dying of 15% before vaccine, after vaccine its still 1.5%.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,644 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Aye, the usual phenomena of that we are still in 2020 that some are incapable of looking beyond. I guess it suits their narrative. There will be 300k vaccintaed this week and another 300k next week.


    Anyway It's great to see that 95% of cases in Ireland are in the unvaccinated group. Vaccines work...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    No sign of age profiles there, a key factor. Comorbidities too are an important measure.



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Why then was Alpha variant killing 2% of people in UK and now Delta variant only killing 0.2%?

    Vaccines are like a raincoat. They will protect you most of the time, but some people still get wet.

    People unvaccinated are largely the young who are unlikely to die from Covid, which is why they are only being vaccinated now.



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    A vaccine will not save everyone.

    Especially when cases are as high as they are in UK.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭patnor1011



    That is very low number actually. Daily average is tad over 1400 people a day in just england and wales.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Like saying 1 and 1 is 11. The numbers don't lie.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Do you seriously try to claim that vaccines reduced mortality tenfold by comparing two different strains of virus which behaved quite differently and affected quite different profile of people? Alpha variant was deadlier precisely because it was the first one and killed most of the vulnerable people with several hard comorbidities. Delta has fairly reduced target group as majority of the most vulnerable already died when our experts decided to empty hospitals and ship them out to nursing houses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Professor Tim Spector, who leads the study run with health-technology firm ZOE, said the shift in trend was likely because the virus was 'running out' of non-jabbed Britons to infect, with nearly 90 per cent of adults having now received at least one dose.

    There you go. Vaccines are working. Not leading to a wave of hospitalisations or deaths.



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The only reason public are moving on to an extent is the vaccine.

    Our hospitals would be buckled at this moment in time without them.

    Vaccines declaw covid to something close to the flu for most people (even the very old).

    Don't take the vaccine, nobody is forcing you.

    Demand for vaccines is still out stripping supply and will do so for many more months.

    Nobody is too bothered at your anti vax opinion.

    I couldnt care less that you wont take it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,777 ✭✭✭brickster69




    Problem is that most countries are 6 weeks behind the UK in the Delta wave.Some have not even started it yet.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    How many Delta cases today?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,656 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Alpha variant is the Kent variant, it's not the original from Wuhan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,202 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    I don't think you understand statistics. If 100% of people in a country were vaccinated, 100% of new cases would be "in vaccinated people". The supposedly high rates in vaccinated people are a combination of high vaccination rates generally, and more testing in groups who are older and more likely to be vaccinated.



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Alpha was not the first one, by a long way....

    Alpha was identified in Kent in September 2020 and caused the wave in UK and Ireland at Christmas.

    Vaccines reduce severe illness >90%

    Why has mortality reduced from 2% to 0.2%.

    Maybe Delta is slightly less severe, but main reduction reasons are vaccines to vulnerable people.

    Most young people, a vaccine is not the difference between living or dieing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    It is the first reported mutation which spread largely in europe and resulted in most fatalities.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,656 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    You may want to read up on the efficacy, the 95% quoted is against symptomatic disease in the regular/original strain.


    The job of the vaccines was to reduce deaths and severe illness, by all accounts that seems to be still true.



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    95% from Wuhan strain that arrived in europe 18 months ago. It had R rate of 2.5.

    Alpha strain 4.5. Delta strain 7.5. Original vaccines produced for wuhan strain will become less effective at stopping infection in new variants, but will still be effective at stopping severe disease.

    The whole reason covid is dangerous is its novelty to peoples immune system that are not 100%. The old and the less healthy.

    When you vaccinate these people, for the most part, covid is now a normal cold or flu to these people. But old and sick people still die of the flu.

    Just not in the severe numbers of covid in last year or so.

    Thats why these same people get flu jabs.



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    People who get flu jab each year die of the flu.

    The reason to get it from individual perspective:

    An unlucky/unhealthy person who gets severe covid/long covid, a vaccine will help protect them from the worst covid can do.

    From a community perspective:

    Less likely to spread covid to your near and dear who might not deal with covid as well as you.

    Helping to reduce covid spread in your community.

    Less likely to go hospital with covid and therefore reducing burden on hospitals.

    Irish population are well informed and have good trust levels in vaccines, hence demand still outstripping supply in Ireland.

    Other parts of the world not so much for variety of reasons.

    Romanians distrust their goverment due to soviet era.

    Southern states of USA, deeply entrenched views, poor education, distrust of government etc.

    Alot of distrust in vaccines is essentially distrust in your government.

    Look around the world and see the people who are not taking the vaccine, the poor, the marginalised, the uneducated because they dont trust the government.

    I dont trust the government blindly at all.

    I think they have got loads of things wrong in this pandemic.

    I do trust the people that made the vaccines and I understand why thy are less likely to stop infection now.

    Actually their goal was always from the start to try and stop severe disease.

    They have done this really well.

    Hence tens of thousand of infections per day and only a few deaths.

    The 95% infection reduction was never the over riding goal.

    It was all about harm reduction and reducing burden in hospitals.

    The mortality rate of covid in europe is heading toward flu mortality rate.

    0 deaths of covid in europe in the short/ medium term is not going to happen.

    Your expectations are quite something to behold you want vaccines to stop 95% of infections and 100% of deaths.

    That is not something vaccine makers ever set out to accomplish in 2020.



  • Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The vaccines are supposed to stop significant amount of severe disease in people.

    That was their goal from day 1.

    Mortality rate of covid in UK has fallen from 2% to 0.2% in last six months.

    Flu kills thousands in UK every year.

    A vaccine will not stop every single person from dying of covid.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,652 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    They're preventing cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

    Unless you expected them to give people superpowers then they're working exactly as intended.



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