Thanks for that interesting fact, good to know ("In general you need R-1/R people immune to gain herd immunity")
(I can't edit quotes...?)
[R-1] is a negative quantity surely.Should it be [1-R]/R?
Possibly something to do with testing rates also. It is all good and well when you appear to have low cases but then understand that you need to test more like France is starting to do. Instead of looking good you end up looking absolutely terrible once the results come in.
Well 0.9 as an R value would be a decay in the spread of the disease as it is less than one.
The idea is that if there is an R value of say 10, every person infecting 10 more, than if the vaccine is 100% effective at stopping transmission you would need greater than 90% ( R-1/R = 9/10) of people inoculated for herd immunity to kick in. With 90% inoculated nstead of infecting ten people an infectious person would infect one, because the other nine are already immune. Greater than 90% and the infectious person on average infects less than one person and it eventually stops transmission.
This is a simplification because some people are super spreaders and some events are super spreading. The virus will rarely die out fully.
That doesn't sound so bad as I am using a fairly high R value and we might each 90% of adults innoculated.
The problem with the vaccines we have is they don't seem to break the transmission fully so the calculations are tougher.
Not for R>= 1.
Anything less means that cases naturally decay.
Catalonia the first area to be hit on the Continent heading to restrictions with ICU heading to maximum capacity
Incredible in 2 weeks
Germans are more machine than man
Says more about the poster....
Indeed, i'm a funny frog 😎
More like sleepwalking into a nightmare. That's what happens when you just watch what was happening in India, then the UK and think it won't happen here.
Not sure if anyone spotted this but in the latest variants of concern report from Public Health England the estimated secondary attack rate of Delta has decreased quite significantly, down to levels in or around the Alpha variant. Suggests it's not as doomsday-like transmissible as previously thought.
Seasonal factor? Wasn't the reason for extraordinary levels of infection in meat plants put down to a cold environment, among many other worse things. Great news if true and the acceleration in growth certainly seems to have reduced substantially here and in England, Scotland looks like it has peaked.
Good news. However, I also find it interesting that some very frequent posters on here haven't "liked" your post. But if it was bad news, I'm sure they'd be the first to jump all over it. Hmmm..
I really hate to be *that guy* but the first table is a bit misleading. If you look at the timeline it includes cases as far back as January. This was before widespread vaccination when SAR for Alpha was higher (around 15% iirc) so the average is a bit skewed.
The second table only includes cases from end of March and is a more accurate representation of SAR.
Liked ACE’s post for highlighting interesting data, and Hardyn’s for pointing out it didn’t say what we thought it did
Spain currently about 4/5 weeks behind the UK, hard to believe it just started ticking up at the end of June.
More PHE data in NEJM form regarding vaccines and Delta for symptomatic infection:
Ireland will “get on top” of Delta variant next month according to experts.
Delta cases in the UK continues to drop. Last Thursdays cases vs today 39,906 vs 48,553 last Thursday.
That'd be great news, and the speed and uptake of our vaccine rollout has to be helping.
I honestly don't believe the UK's figures - just anecdotally Delta seems rampant over there right now. I don't think there is the same anxiety to get tested as there was pre-vaccinations, I think most fully-vaccinated people will ride it out.
The only "good" thing about Delta (if you're anxious for normality to return) is that it seems to be so infectious this wave should hopefully not last very long.
Where do you find the case definitions of what constitutes "Confirmed Cases in ICU" and "Confirmed Cases in Hospital".
I am presuming since they will be testing 100% of admissions to hospital that even if you went in for a heart attack for example but are C19 positive that you will boost their doom and gloom figures. I recall Tone confirming when put under pressure bu TD's that if you were C19 positive but went under a bus and died in A&E then you went down as a covid death and the fact you bled out was beside the point.
If as I suspect that is the case then is there any detailed breakdown on who is actually going into hospital these days for C19 alone and have no other underlying conditions?
Yeah my GF's brother is living over there and he said lots of his friends and coworkers are getting the virus but are largely fine. They are, as you said, riding it out. All under 40.
Maybe a thread needs created about this Lambda variant that's starting to knock around, this has turned up in about 29 countries now. I don't know if The Conversation.Com is a trustworthy publication, but I'll leave a link dealing with the history of this variant. https://theconversation.com/the-lambda-variant-is-it-more-infectious-and-can-it-escape-vaccines-a-virologist-explains-164156
Lambda is not considered a VOC. Also it's prevelance worldwide has taken a sharp dip since it's initial spike. Something to keep an eye on but no reason to push the panic button just yet. Especially compared to Delta.
Ahh an expert excellent
There wouldn't be much point in a discussion board if you weren't allowed your viewpoint
What are the main symptoms of this variant?