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DBS By election - Thursday 8th July

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    #32
    padd b1975
    Registered Users Posts: 10,715 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Surprised that you haven't posted an update on the Paddy Power odds.

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

    Geoghegan 4/6
    Bacik 6/5
    Boylan 10/1

    Bookies appear to have lost all faith in Boylan, maybe trying to attract the delusional SF type.

    She's not very likeable.

    Not in Ivana's league of superiority obviously, but the largely mature electorate of DBS won't have much time for her woke guff.


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    #33
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,302 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    So you are claiming Fine Gael arent in trouble here? The polls are saying they might be. 10 days to go and Ivana has all the momentum. Fine Gael could yet pay for putting an inanimate carbon rod forward and trying to treat the electorate like mugs.

    It wont be nice for your man Leo if Fine Gael lose this safe seat. He had his chance to win this election with no problems so its all on him if Geoghegan fails to do it.

    It would say something if an inanimate carbon rod outpolled Lynn Boylan, the candidate of the "most popular party on this island", wouldn't it?


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    #34
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,284 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    blanch152 wrote: »
    It would say something if an inanimate carbon rod outpolled Lynn Boylan, the candidate of the "most popular party on this island", wouldn't it?

    DBS is a safe FG seat. They should be walking it. They're gone from having 2 TDs in that constituency to potentially having none.


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    #35
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,302 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    DBS is a safe FG seat. They should be walking it. They're gone from having 2 TDs in that constituency to potentially having none.

    A safe seat in a 4-seater does not guarantee a by-election win.

    Government parties rarely win by-elections, that is the main rule of thumb.


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    #36
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,116 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    padd b1975 wrote: »
    She's not very likeable.

    Not in Ivana's league of superiority obviously, but the largely mature electorate of DBS won't have much time for her woke guff.

    So they could very well plump for her polar opposite Ivana instead?:confused:


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    #37
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,617 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    blanch152 wrote: »
    A safe seat in a 4-seater does not guarantee a by-election win.

    Kate O'Connell would have guaranteed a win, nobody in that field would have beaten her. But instead FG put up a pro life candidate in a constituency that is vastly pro choice. Its amazing the lengths of Varadakrs vindictiveness that he would even risk losing a safe seat but here we are. He has firmly hitched his wagon to a candidate nobody is inspired by.


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    #38
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,302 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Kate O'Connell would have guaranteed a win. But instead FG put up a pro life candidate in a constituency that is vastly pro choice. Its amazing the lengths of Varadakrs vindictiveness that he would even risk losing a safe seat but here we are. He has firmly hitched his wagon to a candidate nobody is inspired by.

    Kate O'Connell wouldn't have had any constituency backing, no canvassers, no nothing. The local party didn't want her. But, of course, it is all Leo's fault.

    Fine Gael had 27% in the general election, that is a long way short of a guarantee in a by-election, especially for a government party.

    But hey, it doesn't really matter that the facts don't fit your fake narrative, GET LEO is the point, isn't it?


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    #39
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,617 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Kate O'Connell wouldn't have had any constituency backing, no canvassers, no nothing. The local party didn't want her. But, of course, it is all Leo's fault.

    Fine Gael had 27% in the general election, that is a long way short of a guarantee in a by-election, especially for a government party.

    But hey, it doesn't really matter that the facts don't fit your fake narrative, GET LEO is the point, isn't it?

    The delusion is just dripping off this post, everyone knows well that Kate O'Connell would have strolled this by election. She is hugely popular locallly, actually lives in the constituency and employs people there. She narrowly missed out on a seat last time because Leo ordered all FG resources behind the idiot boy Murphy. And now FG canvassers are being asked on the doorsteps by voters as to why this muppet Geoghegan was put forward instead of their former TD. O'Connell herself said Leo scuppered her bid so if FG dont win the seat here that truly is on him and the knives will be getting sharpened

    As for the FG party in the area- these are the same people who were erecting the M50 sign outside her pharmacy and the same people who planned on giving her a lump of turf at a constituency meeting. 'Culchies not welcome in Dublin 6' was the clear message to her.Thats the kind of children she was having to deal with in Fine Gael locally, it really says it all about that party, they need to grow up.


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    #40
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,010 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Stovepipe wrote: »
    I thought the voting public stayed away from Ivana Bacik in droves and she only got a token seat in the Seanad to help her college buddies. About as appealing as cold porridge.

    Looks like she is in with a shout of winning this.

    Poll puts her on 2nd in First preferences a good bit ahead of Boylan and Byrne. Byrne asking for transfers to Bacik.

    It looks very much like a 2 horse race between Geogheghan and Bacik.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #41
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,617 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Hmmmm

    https://twitter.com/ActingTheGom/status/1410167624856739841


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    #42
    todolist
    Registered Users Posts: 811 ✭✭✭todolist


    Ladbrokes have Geoghegan at odds of 8/11 on favourite.He is looking good for the win.He has been favourite with the bookies
    from day one and he's still the most likely winner.


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    #43
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,116 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Annasopra wrote: »
    Byrne asking for transfers to Bacik.

    Really? Has the party cleared this?:eek:


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    #44
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,010 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Really? Has the party cleared this?:eek:

    Reading the story: Personal not party request.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #45
    keano_afc
    Registered Users Posts: 8,711 ✭✭✭keano_afc


    The media certainly seem to be behind Bacik.

    Which is odd, as she has absolutely no redeeming features. Couldn't even get elected on Eamon Gilmore's surplus. A deeply, deeply unpleasant character.


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    #46
    NewbridgeIR
    Registered Users Posts: 3,768 ✭✭✭NewbridgeIR


    I love the way James Geoghegan is not a landlord but the Soc Dem and Sinn Fein candidates are.


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    #47
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Does anyone know why the Irish Examiner published a story about James Geoghegans car not having NCT for four years then later pulled it very quickly

    “”
    MON, 28 JUN, 2021 - 17:30
    CIANAN BRENNAN

    A candidate in the upcoming Dublin Bay South by-election owns and drives a car that has not undergone a successful National Car Test for more than four year
    “”



    The archived page is here -

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210628164109/https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40324208.html


    Apologies just seen this was previously posted by another user


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    #48
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,116 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

    Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
    I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

    Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...


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    #49
    crooked cockney villain
    Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭crooked cockney villain


    keano_afc wrote: »
    The media certainly seem to be behind Bacik.

    Which is odd, as she has absolutely no redeeming features. .

    The media will always back unpleasant wokelords. Hazel Chu got more Irish media mentions in the last year than Joe Biden did. Some going for a local county councillor.


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    #50
    Augme
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭Augme


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

    Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
    I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

    Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...


    She's a champagne socialist. Just the sort the voters in DBS. Private schooled and trinity alum. Like a lot of voters in DBS. Benefits from being rich and the privilege her background and upbringing brings her and then waxes lyric about helping others, like a lot of voters in DBS.

    Lynn Boylan/SF are too working class. However, I definitely think her poll numbers are wrong and she will do a lot better on the the day of the election.

    In Government Green party have shown they are only a climate party. Pre election they had been very vocal on social issues to try and earn votes but have obviously been found out and will be punished accordingly.


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    #51
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,168 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

    Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
    I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

    Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

    Bacik is politically in the centre. Sinn Fein is not strong in a middle class constituency and is not transfer friendly. Bacik is going to pick up more transfers from the start as minor candidates are eliminated. Bacik and is going to eventually end up between Geoghegan and Boylan and will be elected on the transfers of the lower of the two (most likely Boylan ).


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    #52
    newhouse87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭newhouse87


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    Bacik is politically in the centre. Sinn Fein is not strong in a middle class constituency and is not transfer friendly. Bacik is going to pick up more transfers from the start as minor candidates are eliminated. Bacik and is going to eventually end up between Geoghegan and Boylan and will be elected on the transfers of the lower of the two (most likely Boylan ).

    From what i have heard from bacik she is definitely not politically Centre.


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    #53
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    I didn't realise the Lynn Boylan and Eoin O'Broin are an item. Two "posh" sf'ers

    She did well in the european election in 2014, but failed miserable before that and miserably after that. She was parachuted into DBS and probably knows feck all about real local issues and just can't connect with the majority of people there.

    Geoghegan would probably do well in a general election, but between the usual protest vote and that he is a little too much of a renua conservative type which does not do too well, he looks like to come up short.

    Bacik on the other hand has been in the area for decades and even without being a td she has kept her profile and would be a centrist labour politician and Ruari Quinn would have had a large support there and she is probably picking that up along with the fence sitting voters. Bookies are rarely wrong in the few days running up to an election - they do their own polling in many cases.

    And I really don't think FG will see a Bacik win as an issue as it will give impetus to labour and if they can reinvigorate themselves they will most likely take votes from sf - and that a win win in my book.


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    #54
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,168 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    newhouse87 wrote: »
    From what i have heard from bacik she is definitely not politically Centre.

    She is between FG on the right and SF on the left. She will pick up most of the transfers of the other candidates.


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    #55
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,617 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

    Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
    I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

    Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

    Called it a couple of weeks ago
    Muahahaha wrote: »
    It will be interesting to see how Ivana Bacik does. There is a fair Labour vote in the constituency and if she can get transfers from the Greens she could have a good showing. The bookies have Lynn Boylan as second favourite but I think If Geoghegan were to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory its Ivana Bacik who would be the likely beneficiary

    I think its a combination of a couple of things. Its Ruari Quinns old constituency so there is a big Labour vote there in the area and Bacik very much appeals to that set as well as to Green party voters, Claire Byrne herself is now asking her voters to transfer to Bacik so now the voting pact is official and Ivanas chances get even better .

    And the second thing is FG put up a completely uninspiring candidate in James Geoghegan- look at the poll last week- FG got 37% of the vote but Geoghegan only got 27% so that shows a sizeable disconnect between how voters view the party versus how they view its candidate. Geoghegan is a ex Renua pro lifer running in what is a socially liberal constituency that had one of the biggest pro choice votes in the country. People see through that sh1t so they wont vote for him. And then youve all the voters who wanted Kate O'Connell, theyve been saying this on the doorsteps to FG canvassers, they know she got shafted by Leo and FG and they're not happy about it.

    It will be an interesting final few days of the campaign. Leo has been handwriting a letter to the voters, he must be getting nervous at this stage

    https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1411285166388088832


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    #56
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »

    Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

    You need a trigger. Currently the stock of labour td's is poor.

    Howlin is semi retired at this stage so they really only have 5 and Duncan Smith hasn't really found his voice.
    Bacik whether you like her or not is very vociferous and will create noise and that will attract people and possibly some stronger candidates for the next election and give a lift to those that lost narrowly at the last election..

    I'm very much FG, but playing the long game, a Bacik win is far better for FG & FF than a FG win.

    A better performance from FF a better performance from Labour and sf throwing far too many candidates into the mix at the next election, could see a severe drop in sf representation.


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    #57
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,010 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

    Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
    I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

    Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

    Bacik has lived in DBS her entire life, her visibility in the 2 recent referenda, her campaigns in setting up a local educate together school all stand to her, She is getting the old Ruairi Quinn vote that drifted away and a lot of normally FG votes from Kate O'Connell fans.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #58
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    What were SF thinking, running a non-local candidate? It's fairly obvious from a lot of the commentary around this by-election that local recognition is extremely important in this constituency - many have even pointed out that SF's performance in the 2020 GE may have been more down to Chris Andrews and how people feel about him personally, than any kind of party support, for a large part.

    I actually didn't even realise that "parachute" candidates were legal until this - I always assumed one had to be registered to vote in the constituency one wanted to stand for election in.

    Just seems to me that in a constituency which was always going to be a long shot to win a by-election, SF really missed a trick in not getting someone well known locally to stand.

    I was in town myself on Friday evening and walked from Grand Canal DART station, along the canal all the way to Clanbrassil Street. I don't think I saw one Lynn Boylan election posted at any of the intersections where there were many election posters for other candidates - Bacik's face, for example, is everywhere.

    What are they playing at? Is this bad election management, the arrogance of flying high in the polls, or a pre-existing resignation to not winning this seat anyway and therefore a reluctance to spend real money or commit real manpower to the campaign?


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    #59
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,010 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    What were SF thinking, running a non-local candidate? It's fairly obvious from a lot of the commentary around this by-election that local recognition is extremely important in this constituency - many have even pointed out that SF's performance in the 2020 GE may have been more down to Chris Andrews and how people feel about him personally, than any kind of party support, for a large part.

    I actually didn't even realise that "parachute" candidates were legal until this - I always assumed one had to be registered to vote in the constituency one wanted to stand for election in.

    Just seems to me that in a constituency which was always going to be a long shot to win a by-election, SF really missed a trick in not getting someone well known locally to stand.

    I was in town myself on Friday evening and walked from Grand Canal DART station, along the canal all the way to Clanbrassil Street. I don't think I saw one Lynn Boylan election posted at any of the intersections where there were many election posters for other candidates - Bacik's face, for example, is everywhere.

    What are they playing at? Is this bad election management, the arrogance of flying high in the polls, or a pre-existing resignation to not winning this seat anyway and therefore a reluctance to spend real money or commit real manpower to the campaign?

    They selected Boylan late enough. I think there was someone local interested but there was disagreement on their strategy. My guess is the local person was a working class man from around Ringsend or Pearse St and HQ knew that would work strongly against them in the wealthy suburbs of Donnybook, Rathmines, Rathgar etc

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #60
    JPup
    Registered Users Posts: 914 ✭✭✭JPup


    I think Chris Andrews benefits from the name and connections it brings. How much is truly a personal vote for him? Very hard to come back from the anonymous email scandal in my opinion.


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    #61
    Triangle
    Registered Users Posts: 960 ✭✭✭Triangle


    Augme wrote: »

    In Government Green party have shown they are only a climate party. Pre election they had been very vocal on social issues to try and earn votes but have obviously been found out and will be punished accordingly.

    Have you even read the program for government? I take it from your comment - No.

    Living wage, increased policing, increased social protections, the list is massive and not FF or FG policies. They're green and were achieved by a party with a small number of TDs.


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