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DBS By election - Thursday 8th July

Muahahaha

So its looking like the by election for Eoghan Murphys seat in Dublin Bay South is set to take place with Thursday 8th July the likely date and it will serve as this summers political bloodsports. Its unlikely to be as entertaining at last summers edition when we had Golfgate, Seamus Wolfe and Phil Hogans golf tour of Ireland during a pandemic. Nonetheless by elections are always good entertainment with entire party machines focusing all their resources on a single constituency.

Candidates so far
James Geoghegan (FG)
Ivana Bacik (Labour)
Deirdre Conroy (FF)
Lynn Boylan (SF)
Claire Byrne (Green)
Sarah Durcan (SDs)
Bridget Purcell (PBP)
Justin Barrett (National Party)
Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua)
Mairead Tobin (Aontu)
Then there are four Independents- Mannix Flynn, Michael McGrath, Peter Dooley and Norma Burke aka Bunty McFluff

This seat should be a slam dunk for Fine Gael in what is the most Fine Gael constituency in the entire country. It would have been a certain slam dunk had FG put forward Kate o'Connell who DBS had previously elected but Varadkar decided to shaft her instead. She later complained that FG party activists placed a homemade sign saying 'M50' outside her pharmacy in Rathgar, telling her to go back down the country from where she came. Another FGer brought a lump of turf to a meeting with the intention of handing it to her until some common sense broke out. So the message from FG to Kate o'Connell was clear that she wasnt wanted and that culchies like her are not welcome in Dublin 6.

Leaving James Geoghegan as the FG front runner and bookies favourite. But his campaign hasnt exactly got off to a flier. He was a former lobbyist for tobacco companies but his excuse is its not his fault for what he works in. Now he is trying to claim that he is not a pro-lifer when he literally worked and campaigned for Lucinda Creighton who stood on a pro life platform and as leader of the pro life party Renua. He is saying he wants to be the voice of the generation who are locked out of the housing market while he himself just bought his first house for 750,000, he is so far removed from your average first time buyer struggling to buy a house that its not funny. So Geoghegan has done a lot of spoofing. But that might not matter in a strong FG consittuency who previously already elected the inanimate carbon rod known as Eoghan Murphy.

Simon Harris is Fine Gaels Director of Elections for James Geoghegan and has already displayed that uncanny Fine Gael knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Last week he called Sinn Fein "sinister" for using fake polling companies and the very next day his own candidate Geoghegan came out and admitted that he himself had conducted fake polling door to door on behalf of his pro life party Renua. So by Harris' own metric his candidate is now deemed as"sinister", you really couldnt make it up.

Otherwise Bacik is expected to put in a good showing. Her posters have her on her bicycle so she is aiming at the large Green vote in this constituency. FF Deirdre Conroys campaign already seems dead in the water but it will be fun when she gets asked about her compo claim for falling over when skiing on a free holiday when she worked for the Irish Independent. This is Maria Bailey stuff all over again. Lynn Boylan should have a decent showing but wont come anywhere near taking the seat when transfer get distributed. Lots of eyes will also be on Justin Barrett of the National Party and his anti immigrant rhetoric

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padd b1975

blanch152 wrote: »

Surprised that you haven't posted an update on the Paddy Power odds.

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Geoghegan 4/6
Bacik 6/5
Boylan 10/1

Bookies appear to have lost all faith in Boylan, maybe trying to attract the delusional SF type.

She's not very likeable.

Not in Ivana's league of superiority obviously, but the largely mature electorate of DBS won't have much time for her woke guff.

blanch152

Muahahaha wrote: »

So you are claiming Fine Gael arent in trouble here? The polls are saying they might be. 10 days to go and Ivana has all the momentum. Fine Gael could yet pay for putting an inanimate carbon rod forward and trying to treat the electorate like mugs.

It wont be nice for your man Leo if Fine Gael lose this safe seat. He had his chance to win this election with no problems so its all on him if Geoghegan fails to do it.

It would say something if an inanimate carbon rod outpolled Lynn Boylan, the candidate of the "most popular party on this island", wouldn't it?

ohnonotgmail

blanch152 wrote: »

It would say something if an inanimate carbon rod outpolled Lynn Boylan, the candidate of the "most popular party on this island", wouldn't it?

DBS is a safe FG seat. They should be walking it. They're gone from having 2 TDs in that constituency to potentially having none.

blanch152

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

DBS is a safe FG seat. They should be walking it. They're gone from having 2 TDs in that constituency to potentially having none.

A safe seat in a 4-seater does not guarantee a by-election win.

Government parties rarely win by-elections, that is the main rule of thumb.

Loafing Oaf

padd b1975 wrote: »

She's not very likeable.

Not in Ivana's league of superiority obviously, but the largely mature electorate of DBS won't have much time for her woke guff.

So they could very well plump for her polar opposite Ivana instead?

Muahahaha

blanch152 wrote: »

A safe seat in a 4-seater does not guarantee a by-election win.

Kate O'Connell would have guaranteed a win, nobody in that field would have beaten her. But instead FG put up a pro life candidate in a constituency that is vastly pro choice. Its amazing the lengths of Varadakrs vindictiveness that he would even risk losing a safe seat but here we are. He has firmly hitched his wagon to a candidate nobody is inspired by.

blanch152

Muahahaha wrote: »

Kate O'Connell would have guaranteed a win. But instead FG put up a pro life candidate in a constituency that is vastly pro choice. Its amazing the lengths of Varadakrs vindictiveness that he would even risk losing a safe seat but here we are. He has firmly hitched his wagon to a candidate nobody is inspired by.

Kate O'Connell wouldn't have had any constituency backing, no canvassers, no nothing. The local party didn't want her. But, of course, it is all Leo's fault.

Fine Gael had 27% in the general election, that is a long way short of a guarantee in a by-election, especially for a government party.

But hey, it doesn't really matter that the facts don't fit your fake narrative, GET LEO is the point, isn't it?

Muahahaha

blanch152 wrote: »

Kate O'Connell wouldn't have had any constituency backing, no canvassers, no nothing. The local party didn't want her. But, of course, it is all Leo's fault.

Fine Gael had 27% in the general election, that is a long way short of a guarantee in a by-election, especially for a government party.

But hey, it doesn't really matter that the facts don't fit your fake narrative, GET LEO is the point, isn't it?

The delusion is just dripping off this post, everyone knows well that Kate O'Connell would have strolled this by election. She is hugely popular locallly, actually lives in the constituency and employs people there. She narrowly missed out on a seat last time because Leo ordered all FG resources behind the idiot boy Murphy. And now FG canvassers are being asked on the doorsteps by voters as to why this muppet Geoghegan was put forward instead of their former TD. O'Connell herself said Leo scuppered her bid so if FG dont win the seat here that truly is on him and the knives will be getting sharpened

As for the FG party in the area- these are the same people who were erecting the M50 sign outside her pharmacy and the same people who planned on giving her a lump of turf at a constituency meeting. 'Culchies not welcome in Dublin 6' was the clear message to her.Thats the kind of children she was having to deal with in Fine Gael locally, it really says it all about that party, they need to grow up.

Annasopra

Stovepipe wrote: »

I thought the voting public stayed away from Ivana Bacik in droves and she only got a token seat in the Seanad to help her college buddies. About as appealing as cold porridge.

Looks like she is in with a shout of winning this.

Poll puts her on 2nd in First preferences a good bit ahead of Boylan and Byrne. Byrne asking for transfers to Bacik.

It looks very much like a 2 horse race between Geogheghan and Bacik.

Muahahaha

Hmmmm

https://twitter.com/ActingTheGom/status/1410167624856739841

todolist

Ladbrokes have Geoghegan at odds of 8/11 on favourite.He is looking good for the win.He has been favourite with the bookies
from day one and he's still the most likely winner.

Loafing Oaf

Annasopra wrote: »

Byrne asking for transfers to Bacik.

Really? Has the party cleared this?:eek:

Annasopra

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Really? Has the party cleared this?:eek:

Reading the story: Personal not party request.

keano_afc

The media certainly seem to be behind Bacik.

Which is odd, as she has absolutely no redeeming features. Couldn't even get elected on Eamon Gilmore's surplus. A deeply, deeply unpleasant character.

[Deleted User]

I love the way James Geoghegan is not a landlord but the Soc Dem and Sinn Fein candidates are.

MacronvFrugals

Does anyone know why the Irish Examiner published a story about James Geoghegans car not having NCT for four years then later pulled it very quickly

“”
MON, 28 JUN, 2021 - 17:30
CIANAN BRENNAN

A candidate in the upcoming Dublin Bay South by-election owns and drives a car that has not undergone a successful National Car Test for more than four year
“”

The archived page is here -

https://web.archive.org/web/20210628164109/https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40324208.html

Apologies just seen this was previously posted by another user

Loafing Oaf

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

crooked cockney villain

keano_afc wrote: »

The media certainly seem to be behind Bacik.

Which is odd, as she has absolutely no redeeming features. .

The media will always back unpleasant wokelords. Hazel Chu got more Irish media mentions in the last year than Joe Biden did. Some going for a local county councillor.

Augme

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

She's a champagne socialist. Just the sort the voters in DBS. Private schooled and trinity alum. Like a lot of voters in DBS. Benefits from being rich and the privilege her background and upbringing brings her and then waxes lyric about helping others, like a lot of voters in DBS.

Lynn Boylan/SF are too working class. However, I definitely think her poll numbers are wrong and she will do a lot better on the the day of the election.

In Government Green party have shown they are only a climate party. Pre election they had been very vocal on social issues to try and earn votes but have obviously been found out and will be punished accordingly.

Claw Hammer

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

Bacik is politically in the centre. Sinn Fein is not strong in a middle class constituency and is not transfer friendly. Bacik is going to pick up more transfers from the start as minor candidates are eliminated. Bacik and is going to eventually end up between Geoghegan and Boylan and will be elected on the transfers of the lower of the two (most likely Boylan ).

newhouse87

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Bacik is politically in the centre. Sinn Fein is not strong in a middle class constituency and is not transfer friendly. Bacik is going to pick up more transfers from the start as minor candidates are eliminated. Bacik and is going to eventually end up between Geoghegan and Boylan and will be elected on the transfers of the lower of the two (most likely Boylan ).

From what i have heard from bacik she is definitely not politically Centre.

Darc19

I didn't realise the Lynn Boylan and Eoin O'Broin are an item. Two "posh" sf'ers

She did well in the european election in 2014, but failed miserable before that and miserably after that. She was parachuted into DBS and probably knows feck all about real local issues and just can't connect with the majority of people there.

Geoghegan would probably do well in a general election, but between the usual protest vote and that he is a little too much of a renua conservative type which does not do too well, he looks like to come up short.

Bacik on the other hand has been in the area for decades and even without being a td she has kept her profile and would be a centrist labour politician and Ruari Quinn would have had a large support there and she is probably picking that up along with the fence sitting voters. Bookies are rarely wrong in the few days running up to an election - they do their own polling in many cases.

And I really don't think FG will see a Bacik win as an issue as it will give impetus to labour and if they can reinvigorate themselves they will most likely take votes from sf - and that a win win in my book.

Claw Hammer

newhouse87 wrote: »

From what i have heard from bacik she is definitely not politically Centre.

She is between FG on the right and SF on the left. She will pick up most of the transfers of the other candidates.

Muahahaha

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

Called it a couple of weeks ago

Muahahaha wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how Ivana Bacik does. There is a fair Labour vote in the constituency and if she can get transfers from the Greens she could have a good showing. The bookies have Lynn Boylan as second favourite but I think If Geoghegan were to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory its Ivana Bacik who would be the likely beneficiary

I think its a combination of a couple of things. Its Ruari Quinns old constituency so there is a big Labour vote there in the area and Bacik very much appeals to that set as well as to Green party voters, Claire Byrne herself is now asking her voters to transfer to Bacik so now the voting pact is official and Ivanas chances get even better .

And the second thing is FG put up a completely uninspiring candidate in James Geoghegan- look at the poll last week- FG got 37% of the vote but Geoghegan only got 27% so that shows a sizeable disconnect between how voters view the party versus how they view its candidate. Geoghegan is a ex Renua pro lifer running in what is a socially liberal constituency that had one of the biggest pro choice votes in the country. People see through that sh1t so they wont vote for him. And then youve all the voters who wanted Kate O'Connell, theyve been saying this on the doorsteps to FG canvassers, they know she got shafted by Leo and FG and they're not happy about it.

It will be an interesting final few days of the campaign. Leo has been handwriting a letter to the voters, he must be getting nervous at this stage

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1411285166388088832

Darc19

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

You need a trigger. Currently the stock of labour td's is poor.

Howlin is semi retired at this stage so they really only have 5 and Duncan Smith hasn't really found his voice.
Bacik whether you like her or not is very vociferous and will create noise and that will attract people and possibly some stronger candidates for the next election and give a lift to those that lost narrowly at the last election..

I'm very much FG, but playing the long game, a Bacik win is far better for FG & FF than a FG win.

A better performance from FF a better performance from Labour and sf throwing far too many candidates into the mix at the next election, could see a severe drop in sf representation.

Annasopra

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

Bacik has lived in DBS her entire life, her visibility in the 2 recent referenda, her campaigns in setting up a local educate together school all stand to her, She is getting the old Ruairi Quinn vote that drifted away and a lot of normally FG votes from Kate O'Connell fans.

hatrickpatrick

What were SF thinking, running a non-local candidate? It's fairly obvious from a lot of the commentary around this by-election that local recognition is extremely important in this constituency - many have even pointed out that SF's performance in the 2020 GE may have been more down to Chris Andrews and how people feel about him personally, than any kind of party support, for a large part.

I actually didn't even realise that "parachute" candidates were legal until this - I always assumed one had to be registered to vote in the constituency one wanted to stand for election in.

Just seems to me that in a constituency which was always going to be a long shot to win a by-election, SF really missed a trick in not getting someone well known locally to stand.

I was in town myself on Friday evening and walked from Grand Canal DART station, along the canal all the way to Clanbrassil Street. I don't think I saw one Lynn Boylan election posted at any of the intersections where there were many election posters for other candidates - Bacik's face, for example, is everywhere.

What are they playing at? Is this bad election management, the arrogance of flying high in the polls, or a pre-existing resignation to not winning this seat anyway and therefore a reluctance to spend real money or commit real manpower to the campaign?

Annasopra

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

What were SF thinking, running a non-local candidate? It's fairly obvious from a lot of the commentary around this by-election that local recognition is extremely important in this constituency - many have even pointed out that SF's performance in the 2020 GE may have been more down to Chris Andrews and how people feel about him personally, than any kind of party support, for a large part.

I actually didn't even realise that "parachute" candidates were legal until this - I always assumed one had to be registered to vote in the constituency one wanted to stand for election in.

Just seems to me that in a constituency which was always going to be a long shot to win a by-election, SF really missed a trick in not getting someone well known locally to stand.

I was in town myself on Friday evening and walked from Grand Canal DART station, along the canal all the way to Clanbrassil Street. I don't think I saw one Lynn Boylan election posted at any of the intersections where there were many election posters for other candidates - Bacik's face, for example, is everywhere.

What are they playing at? Is this bad election management, the arrogance of flying high in the polls, or a pre-existing resignation to not winning this seat anyway and therefore a reluctance to spend real money or commit real manpower to the campaign?

They selected Boylan late enough. I think there was someone local interested but there was disagreement on their strategy. My guess is the local person was a working class man from around Ringsend or Pearse St and HQ knew that would work strongly against them in the wealthy suburbs of Donnybook, Rathmines, Rathgar etc

JPup

I think Chris Andrews benefits from the name and connections it brings. How much is truly a personal vote for him? Very hard to come back from the anonymous email scandal in my opinion.

Triangle

Augme wrote: »

In Government Green party have shown they are only a climate party. Pre election they had been very vocal on social issues to try and earn votes but have obviously been found out and will be punished accordingly.

Have you even read the program for government? I take it from your comment - No.

Living wage, increased policing, increased social protections, the list is massive and not FF or FG policies. They're green and were achieved by a party with a small number of TDs.