DBS By election - Thursday 8th July

Muahahaha

So its looking like the by election for Eoghan Murphys seat in Dublin Bay South is set to take place with Thursday 8th July the likely date and it will serve as this summers political bloodsports. Its unlikely to be as entertaining at last summers edition when we had Golfgate, Seamus Wolfe and Phil Hogans golf tour of Ireland during a pandemic. Nonetheless by elections are always good entertainment with entire party machines focusing all their resources on a single constituency.

Candidates so far
James Geoghegan (FG)
Ivana Bacik (Labour)
Deirdre Conroy (FF)
Lynn Boylan (SF)
Claire Byrne (Green)
Sarah Durcan (SDs)
Bridget Purcell (PBP)
Justin Barrett (National Party)
Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua)
Mairead Tobin (Aontu)
Then there are four Independents- Mannix Flynn, Michael McGrath, Peter Dooley and Norma Burke aka Bunty McFluff

This seat should be a slam dunk for Fine Gael in what is the most Fine Gael constituency in the entire country. It would have been a certain slam dunk had FG put forward Kate o'Connell who DBS had previously elected but Varadkar decided to shaft her instead. She later complained that FG party activists placed a homemade sign saying 'M50' outside her pharmacy in Rathgar, telling her to go back down the country from where she came. Another FGer brought a lump of turf to a meeting with the intention of handing it to her until some common sense broke out. So the message from FG to Kate o'Connell was clear that she wasnt wanted and that culchies like her are not welcome in Dublin 6.

Leaving James Geoghegan as the FG front runner and bookies favourite. But his campaign hasnt exactly got off to a flier. He was a former lobbyist for tobacco companies but his excuse is its not his fault for what he works in. Now he is trying to claim that he is not a pro-lifer when he literally worked and campaigned for Lucinda Creighton who stood on a pro life platform and as leader of the pro life party Renua. He is saying he wants to be the voice of the generation who are locked out of the housing market while he himself just bought his first house for 750,000, he is so far removed from your average first time buyer struggling to buy a house that its not funny. So Geoghegan has done a lot of spoofing. But that might not matter in a strong FG consittuency who previously already elected the inanimate carbon rod known as Eoghan Murphy.

Simon Harris is Fine Gaels Director of Elections for James Geoghegan and has already displayed that uncanny Fine Gael knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Last week he called Sinn Fein "sinister" for using fake polling companies and the very next day his own candidate Geoghegan came out and admitted that he himself had conducted fake polling door to door on behalf of his pro life party Renua. So by Harris' own metric his candidate is now deemed as"sinister", you really couldnt make it up.

Otherwise Bacik is expected to put in a good showing. Her posters have her on her bicycle so she is aiming at the large Green vote in this constituency. FF Deirdre Conroys campaign already seems dead in the water but it will be fun when she gets asked about her compo claim for falling over when skiing on a free holiday when she worked for the Irish Independent. This is Maria Bailey stuff all over again. Lynn Boylan should have a decent showing but wont come anywhere near taking the seat when transfer get distributed. Lots of eyes will also be on Justin Barrett of the National Party and his anti immigrant rhetoric

Muahahaha

Starting gun has been fired with the polling day now announced as July 8th

THE HIGH-PROFILE by-election in Dublin Bay South is set to take place on 8 July.
The writ (written order) was moved in the Dáil this afternoon, formally starting the campaign to fill the seat vacated by departing Fine Gael TD Eoghan Murphy.

Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien will sign the polling order confirming the date of the vote.
Polls on the day will be open from 7am to 10.30pm.

The by-election has already garnered significant interest, with all of the major parties contesting the vote and informal canvassing already taking place.

https://www.thejournal.ie/dublin-bay-south-by-election-date-5449727-Jun2021/

L1011

Its not even close to being the most FG constituency in the country, though. In 2002 its predecessor returned 0/4. Mayo has a vastly higher FPV%

Still Geoghegans to lose, albeit he seems to be doing his best to do that!

Inquitus

The Bookies take on it!

Muahahaha

L1011 wrote: »

Still Geoghegans to lose, albeit he seems to be doing his best to do that!

Yeah he is the overwhelming favourite but he seems to suffer from foot in mouth syndrome, this from yesterday

https://twitter.com/aoifegracemoore/status/1404080902863568896

Its still hard to see him being beaten though if RTE and TV3 hold election debates anything could happen with a slip of the tongue.

It will be interesting to see how Ivana Bacik does. There is a fair Labour vote in the constituency and if she can get transfers from the Greens she could have a good showing. The bookies have Lynn Boylan as second favourite but I think If Geoghegan were to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory its Ivana Bacik who would be the likely beneficiary

Stovepipe

I thought the voting public stayed away from Ivana Bacik in droves and she only got a token seat in the Seanad to help her college buddies. About as appealing as cold porridge.

ohnonotgmail

Bacik is an extremely unlikable person. Not sure why she bothers putting herself forward for elections.

Annasopra

Essentially this poll will be a three horse race between Bacik, Boylan and Geogheghan.

JPup

Muahahaha wrote: »

Yeah he is the overwhelming favourite but he seems to suffer from foot in mouth syndrome, this from yesterday

https://twitter.com/aoifegracemoore/status/1404080902863568896

Its still hard to see him being beaten though if RTE and TV3 hold election debates anything could happen with a slip of the tongue.

It will be interesting to see how Ivana Bacik does. There is a fair Labour vote in the constituency and if she can get transfers from the Greens she could have a good showing. The bookies have Lynn Boylan as second favourite but I think If Geoghegan were to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory its Ivana Bacik who would be the likely beneficiary

Is that supposed to be a gaffe? The media will try to spin anything!

He didn’t literally mean the people should be shot! It’s a figure of speech. And I’m far from a FG spokesperson by the way.

Loafing Oaf

Inquitus wrote: »

The Bookies take on it!

Wishing I had backed Boylan when she was 5/1:mad:

L1011

Two people who aren't even running with better odds than PBP. One of them has better odds than Aontu.

Really have to wonder if the PR is worth the expense of running.

crooked cockney villain

I'd love to ask Lynn Boylan

a- why was she one of the most prominent supporters of a spoofer who, with his sisters, were shown to have a leaning towards Islamist extremist politics

b- what are you going to do about the reality that Roma gypsies and unemployed asylum spoofers have ended up living in 3, even 4 bed semis in Celtic Tiger built estates in D15, or new council houses in Avondale, while people who grew up in D15 commute from Virginia and Kinnegad.

Sort it out Lynn, or phuck off with your faux concern.

McMurphy

crooked cockney villain wrote: »

I'd love to ask Lynn Boylan

Knock yourself out, it's not like she's unreachable.


lynn.boylan@oireachtas.ie

Let us know how you get on.

expectationlost

Muahahaha wrote: »

So its looking like the by election for Eoghan Murphys seat in Dublin Bay South is set to take place with Thursday 8th July the likely date and it will serve as this summers political bloodsports. Its unlikely to be as entertaining at last summers edition when we had Golfgate, Seamus Wolfe and Phil Hogans golf tour of Ireland during a pandemic. Nonetheless by elections are always good entertainment with entire party machines focusing all their resources on a single constituency.

Candidates so far
James Geoghegan (FG)
Ivana Bacik (Labour)
Deirdre Conroy (FF)
Lynn Boylan (SF)
Claire Byrne (Green)
Sarah Durcan (SDs)
Bridget Purcell (PBP)
Justin Barrett (National Party)
Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua)
Mairead Tobin (Aontu)
Then there are four Independents- Mannix Flynn, Michael McGrath, Peter Dooley and Norma Burke aka Bunty McFluff

This seat should be a slam dunk for Fine Gael in what is the most Fine Gael constituency in the entire country. It would have been a certain slam dunk had FG put forward Kate o'Connell who DBS had previously elected but Varadkar decided to shaft her instead. She later complained that FG party activists placed a homemade sign saying 'M50' outside her pharmacy in Rathgar, telling her to go back down the country from where she came. Another FGer brought a lump of turf to a meeting with the intention of handing it to her until some common sense broke out. So the message from FG to Kate o'Connell was clear that she wasnt wanted and that culchies like her are not welcome in Dublin 6.

Leaving James Geoghegan as the FG front runner and bookies favourite. But his campaign hasnt exactly got off to a flier. He was a former lobbyist for tobacco companies but his excuse is its not his fault for what he works in. Now he is trying to claim that he is not a pro-lifer when he literally worked and campaigned for Lucinda Creighton who stood on a pro life platform and as leader of the pro life party Renua. He is saying he wants to be the voice of the generation who are locked out of the housing market while he himself just bought his first house for 750,000, he is so far removed from your average first time buyer struggling to buy a house that its not funny. So Geoghegan has done a lot of spoofing. But that might not matter in a strong FG consittuency who previously already elected the inanimate carbon rod known as Eoghan Murphy.

Simon Harris is Fine Gaels Director of Elections for James Geoghegan and has already displayed that uncanny Fine Gael knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Last week he called Sinn Fein "sinister" for using fake polling companies and the very next day his own candidate Geoghegan came out and admitted that he himself had conducted fake polling door to door on behalf of his pro life party Renua. So by Harris' own metric his candidate is now deemed as"sinister", you really couldnt make it up.

Otherwise Bacik is expected to put in a good showing. Her posters have her on her bicycle so she is aiming at the large Green vote in this constituency. FF Deirdre Conroys campaign already seems dead in the water but it will be fun when she gets asked about her compo claim for falling over when skiing on a free holiday when she worked for the Irish Independent. This is Maria Bailey stuff all over again. Lynn Boylan should have a decent showing but wont come anywhere near taking the seat when transfer get distributed. Lots of eyes will also be on Justin Barrett of the National Party and his anti immigrant rhetoric

already thread here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=117465842

The country needs a Sinn Féin upset to rock FGFF to the core. Might get them to actually take stock of some very serious issues we are facing and realise some of the mistakes they have made.

I still think unfortunatly FF or FG are more equipped to run the country but they need a kicking here and that's what I'm hoping to see.

ineedeuro

Allyson Mushy Six-pack wrote: »

The country needs a Sinn Féin upset to rock FGFF to the core. Might get them to actually take stock of some very serious issues we are facing and realise some of the mistakes they have made.

I still think unfortunatly FF or FG are more equipped to run the country but they need a kicking here and that's what I'm hoping to see.

Was the whole election last year not the upset?

ineedeuro

ineedeuro wrote: »

Was the whole election last year not the upset?

It's was, but pandemic aside, they are not moving quick enough on the core issues from that election. Housing and in particular the recently exposed shenanigans with Investment Funds I think is the big one. A lot of focus was placed at the weekend on a very average house in DBS valued at 600000 where bids are currently up to just under €1m.

Mismanagement of the Health service also badly exposed in the past year.

ineedeuro

Allyson Mushy Six-pack wrote: »

It's was, but pandemic aside, they are not moving quick enough on the core issues from that election. Housing and in particular the recently exposed shenanigans with Investment Funds I think is the big one. A lot of focus was placed at the weekend on a very average house in DBS valued at 600000 where bids are currently up to just under €1m.

Mismanagement of the Health service also badly exposed in the past year.

Instead of just sticking in a person because you want them for XYZ party
Would it not be better to get the best politician? if the Sinn fein one is useless then why would anyone want them to win?

Same goes for every party, if the candidate is terrible they shouldn't win because Daddy was a TD or they are for XYZ.
ireland has too many bad bad bad politcians who are just in power because they are with a certain party

Galwayguy35

Allyson Mushy Six-pack wrote: »

The country needs a Sinn Féin upset to rock FGFF to the core. Might get them to actually take stock of some very serious issues we are facing and realise some of the mistakes they have made.

I still think unfortunatly FF or FG are more equipped to run the country but they need a kicking here and that's what I'm hoping to see.

They did get a kicking in Feb 2020, the Shinners never did as well in the polls since the 1918 election.

Muahahaha

Last night saw a National Party agitator trying to interogate Fine Gaelers in Ringsend. It was shouty far right politics at its best, stay classy National Party!

https://twitter.com/DBSBYELECTION21/status/1404770827053240321

Annasopra

Muahahaha wrote: »

Last night saw a National Party agitator trying to interogate Fine Gaelers in Ringsend. It was shouty far right politics at its best, stay classy National Party!

https://twitter.com/DBSBYELECTION21/status/1404770827053240321

I reckon they paid the guy in the van to show up

ineedeuro

Muahahaha wrote: »

Last night saw a National Party agitator trying to interogate Fine Gaelers in Ringsend. It was shouty far right politics at its best, stay classy National Party!

https://twitter.com/DBSBYELECTION21/status/1404770827053240321

Stay classy? You having a laugh, when did they ever start to be classy?

Annasopra wrote: »

I reckon they paid the guy in the van to show up

Maybe, maybe not. Some other lunatics will vote for them as well. Remember Gemma has people who follow her

J.O. Farmer

ineedeuro wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not. Some other lunatics will vote for them as well. Remember Gemma has people who follow her

Bit harsh comparing Fine Gael to Gemma and calling their voters lunatics.

Loafing Oaf

ineedeuro wrote: »

Stay classy? You having a laugh

I'm pretty sure they are...

Muahahaha

Inquitus wrote: »

The Bookies take on it!

The odds in the race have shifted now from that last week
James Geoghegan Evens
Lynn Boylan down to 6/4 from 15/8
Ivana Bacik out to 9/2 from 5/2

Wonder whats going on, it might be just the bookies balancing their exposure. Unless they truly believe Lynn Boylan has a chance of running Geoghegan close

Muahahaha

Seems Kate o'Connell is doing a good job winding up Leo by having both Mary Lou and Ivana Bacik in her pharmacy in Rathgar. No chance of Fine Gaels candidate showing up there anytime soon



https://twitter.com/ivanabacik/status/1408732772793978880

blanch152

Muahahaha wrote: »

The odds in the race have shifted now from that last week
James Geoghegan Evens
Lynn Boylan down to 6/4 from 15/8
Ivana Bacik out to 9/2 from 5/2

Wonder whats going on, it might be just the bookies balancing their exposure. Unless they truly believe Lynn Boylan has a chance of running Geoghegan close

I think you try too hard sometimes.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/labours-bacik-could-come-through-in-dublin-bay-south-by-election-according-to-new-poll-40591305.html

Lynn is struggling for third place.

Muahahaha

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you try too hard sometimes.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/labours-bacik-could-come-through-in-dublin-bay-south-by-election-according-to-new-poll-40591305.html

Lynn is struggling for third place.

And where did I say she ever had a chance? Nowhere but as usual you're attempting to misrepresent what was actually posted :rolleyes:

In any case that poll is a bit of a come down for Fine Gael and James Geoghegan because now Ivana Bacik is right on his heels and she is more transfer friendly than he is.

So its looking like Leo has gotten Fine Gael into another mess. He had a slam dunk candidate in Kate o'Connell who would have won this by election at a stroll but he couldnt get over his petty differences and shafted her instead. This is even coming up on the doorsteps with voters asking why O'Connell is not on the ballot.

If Fine Gael dont win that seat because Leo threw his toys out of the pram then his own leadership of the party will come under scrutiny. Its bad enough he led them to their second worst ever election performance but losing a safe Fine Gael seat on top of that will have the party turning on him.

blanch152

Muahahaha wrote: »

And where did I say she ever had a chance? Nowhere but as usual you're attempting to misrepresent what was actually posted :rolleyes:

In any case that poll is a bit of a come down for Fine Gael and James Geoghegan because now Ivana Bacik is right on his heels and she is more transfer friendly than he is.

So its looking like Leo has gotten Fine Gael into another mess. He had a slam dunk candidate in Kate o'Connell who would have won this by election at a stroll but he couldnt get over his petty differences and shafted her instead. This is even coming up on the doorsteps with voters asking why O'Connell is not on the ballot.

If Fine Gael dont win that seat because Leo threw his toys out of the pram then his own leadership of the party will come under scrutiny. Its bad enough he led them to their second worst ever election performance but losing a safe Fine Gael seat on top of that will have the party turning on him.

Wishful thinking in that post. It is amazing the number of posters obsessed with Leo.

blanch152

Muahahaha wrote: »

The odds in the race have shifted now from that last week
James Geoghegan Evens
Lynn Boylan down to 6/4 from 15/8
Ivana Bacik out to 9/2 from 5/2

Wonder whats going on, it might be just the bookies balancing their exposure. Unless they truly believe Lynn Boylan has a chance of running Geoghegan close

Muahahaha wrote: »

And where did I say she ever had a chance? Nowhere but as usual you're attempting to misrepresent what was actually posted :rolleyes:

In any case that poll is a bit of a come down for Fine Gael and James Geoghegan because now Ivana Bacik is right on his heels and she is more transfer friendly than he is.

So its looking like Leo has gotten Fine Gael into another mess. He had a slam dunk candidate in Kate o'Connell who would have won this by election at a stroll but he couldnt get over his petty differences and shafted her instead. This is even coming up on the doorsteps with voters asking why O'Connell is not on the ballot.

If Fine Gael dont win that seat because Leo threw his toys out of the pram then his own leadership of the party will come under scrutiny. Its bad enough he led them to their second worst ever election performance but losing a safe Fine Gael seat on top of that will have the party turning on him.

Surprised that you haven't posted an update on the Paddy Power odds.

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Geoghegan 4/6
Bacik 6/5
Boylan 10/1

Bookies appear to have lost all faith in Boylan, maybe trying to attract the delusional SF type.

Muahahaha

blanch152 wrote: »

Wishful thinking in that post. It is amazing the number of posters obsessed with Leo.

So you are claiming Fine Gael arent in trouble here? The polls are saying they might be. 10 days to go and Ivana has all the momentum. Fine Gael could yet pay for putting an inanimate carbon rod forward and trying to treat the electorate like mugs.

It wont be nice for your man Leo if Fine Gael lose this safe seat. He had his chance to win this election with no problems so its all on him if Geoghegan fails to do it.

padd b1975

blanch152 wrote: »

Surprised that you haven't posted an update on the Paddy Power odds.

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Geoghegan 4/6
Bacik 6/5
Boylan 10/1

Bookies appear to have lost all faith in Boylan, maybe trying to attract the delusional SF type.

She's not very likeable.

Not in Ivana's league of superiority obviously, but the largely mature electorate of DBS won't have much time for her woke guff.

blanch152

Muahahaha wrote: »

So you are claiming Fine Gael arent in trouble here? The polls are saying they might be. 10 days to go and Ivana has all the momentum. Fine Gael could yet pay for putting an inanimate carbon rod forward and trying to treat the electorate like mugs.

It wont be nice for your man Leo if Fine Gael lose this safe seat. He had his chance to win this election with no problems so its all on him if Geoghegan fails to do it.

It would say something if an inanimate carbon rod outpolled Lynn Boylan, the candidate of the "most popular party on this island", wouldn't it?

ohnonotgmail

blanch152 wrote: »

It would say something if an inanimate carbon rod outpolled Lynn Boylan, the candidate of the "most popular party on this island", wouldn't it?

DBS is a safe FG seat. They should be walking it. They're gone from having 2 TDs in that constituency to potentially having none.

blanch152

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

DBS is a safe FG seat. They should be walking it. They're gone from having 2 TDs in that constituency to potentially having none.

A safe seat in a 4-seater does not guarantee a by-election win.

Government parties rarely win by-elections, that is the main rule of thumb.

Loafing Oaf

padd b1975 wrote: »

She's not very likeable.

Not in Ivana's league of superiority obviously, but the largely mature electorate of DBS won't have much time for her woke guff.

So they could very well plump for her polar opposite Ivana instead?

Muahahaha

blanch152 wrote: »

A safe seat in a 4-seater does not guarantee a by-election win.

Kate O'Connell would have guaranteed a win, nobody in that field would have beaten her. But instead FG put up a pro life candidate in a constituency that is vastly pro choice. Its amazing the lengths of Varadakrs vindictiveness that he would even risk losing a safe seat but here we are. He has firmly hitched his wagon to a candidate nobody is inspired by.

blanch152

Muahahaha wrote: »

Kate O'Connell would have guaranteed a win. But instead FG put up a pro life candidate in a constituency that is vastly pro choice. Its amazing the lengths of Varadakrs vindictiveness that he would even risk losing a safe seat but here we are. He has firmly hitched his wagon to a candidate nobody is inspired by.

Kate O'Connell wouldn't have had any constituency backing, no canvassers, no nothing. The local party didn't want her. But, of course, it is all Leo's fault.

Fine Gael had 27% in the general election, that is a long way short of a guarantee in a by-election, especially for a government party.

But hey, it doesn't really matter that the facts don't fit your fake narrative, GET LEO is the point, isn't it?

Muahahaha

blanch152 wrote: »

Kate O'Connell wouldn't have had any constituency backing, no canvassers, no nothing. The local party didn't want her. But, of course, it is all Leo's fault.

Fine Gael had 27% in the general election, that is a long way short of a guarantee in a by-election, especially for a government party.

But hey, it doesn't really matter that the facts don't fit your fake narrative, GET LEO is the point, isn't it?

The delusion is just dripping off this post, everyone knows well that Kate O'Connell would have strolled this by election. She is hugely popular locallly, actually lives in the constituency and employs people there. She narrowly missed out on a seat last time because Leo ordered all FG resources behind the idiot boy Murphy. And now FG canvassers are being asked on the doorsteps by voters as to why this muppet Geoghegan was put forward instead of their former TD. O'Connell herself said Leo scuppered her bid so if FG dont win the seat here that truly is on him and the knives will be getting sharpened

As for the FG party in the area- these are the same people who were erecting the M50 sign outside her pharmacy and the same people who planned on giving her a lump of turf at a constituency meeting. 'Culchies not welcome in Dublin 6' was the clear message to her.Thats the kind of children she was having to deal with in Fine Gael locally, it really says it all about that party, they need to grow up.

Annasopra

Stovepipe wrote: »

I thought the voting public stayed away from Ivana Bacik in droves and she only got a token seat in the Seanad to help her college buddies. About as appealing as cold porridge.

Looks like she is in with a shout of winning this.

Poll puts her on 2nd in First preferences a good bit ahead of Boylan and Byrne. Byrne asking for transfers to Bacik.

It looks very much like a 2 horse race between Geogheghan and Bacik.

Muahahaha

Hmmmm

https://twitter.com/ActingTheGom/status/1410167624856739841

todolist

Ladbrokes have Geoghegan at odds of 8/11 on favourite.He is looking good for the win.He has been favourite with the bookies
from day one and he's still the most likely winner.

Loafing Oaf

Annasopra wrote: »

Byrne asking for transfers to Bacik.

Really? Has the party cleared this?:eek:

Annasopra

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Really? Has the party cleared this?:eek:

Reading the story: Personal not party request.

keano_afc

The media certainly seem to be behind Bacik.

Which is odd, as she has absolutely no redeeming features. Couldn't even get elected on Eamon Gilmore's surplus. A deeply, deeply unpleasant character.

NewbridgeIR

I love the way James Geoghegan is not a landlord but the Soc Dem and Sinn Fein candidates are.

MacronvFrugals

Does anyone know why the Irish Examiner published a story about James Geoghegans car not having NCT for four years then later pulled it very quickly

“”
MON, 28 JUN, 2021 - 17:30
CIANAN BRENNAN

A candidate in the upcoming Dublin Bay South by-election owns and drives a car that has not undergone a successful National Car Test for more than four year
“”



The archived page is here -

https://web.archive.org/web/20210628164109/https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40324208.html


Apologies just seen this was previously posted by another user

Loafing Oaf

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

crooked cockney villain

keano_afc wrote: »

The media certainly seem to be behind Bacik.

Which is odd, as she has absolutely no redeeming features. .

The media will always back unpleasant wokelords. Hazel Chu got more Irish media mentions in the last year than Joe Biden did. Some going for a local county councillor.

Augme

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

She's a champagne socialist. Just the sort the voters in DBS. Private schooled and trinity alum. Like a lot of voters in DBS. Benefits from being rich and the privilege her background and upbringing brings her and then waxes lyric about helping others, like a lot of voters in DBS.

Lynn Boylan/SF are too working class. However, I definitely think her poll numbers are wrong and she will do a lot better on the the day of the election.

In Government Green party have shown they are only a climate party. Pre election they had been very vocal on social issues to try and earn votes but have obviously been found out and will be punished accordingly.

Claw Hammer

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bacik has moved in to favourite for this seat

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

Can anyone offer an explanation for her emergence to the front of this race.
I had assumed Geoghegan's main rival for this seat would be Boylan or failing her Byrne.

Bacik's strong showing doesn't seem to reflect any broader resurgence for the Labour Party, and the 'social issues' with which she is primarily associated are mom and apple pie nowadays. Maybe she has a broader personal popularity in DBS than in the constituencies she has previously run...

Bacik is politically in the centre. Sinn Fein is not strong in a middle class constituency and is not transfer friendly. Bacik is going to pick up more transfers from the start as minor candidates are eliminated. Bacik and is going to eventually end up between Geoghegan and Boylan and will be elected on the transfers of the lower of the two (most likely Boylan ).