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DBS By election - Thursday 8th July

  • 15-06-2021 12:20pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    So its looking like the by election for Eoghan Murphys seat in Dublin Bay South is set to take place with Thursday 8th July the likely date and it will serve as this summers political bloodsports. Its unlikely to be as entertaining at last summers edition when we had Golfgate, Seamus Wolfe and Phil Hogans golf tour of Ireland during a pandemic. Nonetheless by elections are always good entertainment with entire party machines focusing all their resources on a single constituency.

    Candidates so far
    James Geoghegan (FG)
    Ivana Bacik (Labour)
    Deirdre Conroy (FF)
    Lynn Boylan (SF)
    Claire Byrne (Green)
    Sarah Durcan (SDs)
    Bridget Purcell (PBP)
    Justin Barrett (National Party)
    Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua)
    Mairead Tobin (Aontu)
    Then there are four Independents- Mannix Flynn, Michael McGrath, Peter Dooley and Norma Burke aka Bunty McFluff

    This seat should be a slam dunk for Fine Gael in what is the most Fine Gael constituency in the entire country. It would have been a certain slam dunk had FG put forward Kate o'Connell who DBS had previously elected but Varadkar decided to shaft her instead. She later complained that FG party activists placed a homemade sign saying 'M50' outside her pharmacy in Rathgar, telling her to go back down the country from where she came. Another FGer brought a lump of turf to a meeting with the intention of handing it to her until some common sense broke out. So the message from FG to Kate o'Connell was clear that she wasnt wanted and that culchies like her are not welcome in Dublin 6.

    Leaving James Geoghegan as the FG front runner and bookies favourite. But his campaign hasnt exactly got off to a flier. He was a former lobbyist for tobacco companies but his excuse is its not his fault for what he works in. Now he is trying to claim that he is not a pro-lifer when he literally worked and campaigned for Lucinda Creighton who stood on a pro life platform and as leader of the pro life party Renua. He is saying he wants to be the voice of the generation who are locked out of the housing market while he himself just bought his first house for 750,000, he is so far removed from your average first time buyer struggling to buy a house that its not funny. So Geoghegan has done a lot of spoofing. But that might not matter in a strong FG consittuency who previously already elected the inanimate carbon rod known as Eoghan Murphy.

    Simon Harris is Fine Gaels Director of Elections for James Geoghegan and has already displayed that uncanny Fine Gael knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Last week he called Sinn Fein "sinister" for using fake polling companies and the very next day his own candidate Geoghegan came out and admitted that he himself had conducted fake polling door to door on behalf of his pro life party Renua. So by Harris' own metric his candidate is now deemed as"sinister", you really couldnt make it up.

    Otherwise Bacik is expected to put in a good showing. Her posters have her on her bicycle so she is aiming at the large Green vote in this constituency. FF Deirdre Conroys campaign already seems dead in the water but it will be fun when she gets asked about her compo claim for falling over when skiing on a free holiday when she worked for the Irish Independent. This is Maria Bailey stuff all over again. Lynn Boylan should have a decent showing but wont come anywhere near taking the seat when transfer get distributed. Lots of eyes will also be on Justin Barrett of the National Party and his anti immigrant rhetoric


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Starting gun has been fired with the polling day now announced as July 8th
    THE HIGH-PROFILE by-election in Dublin Bay South is set to take place on 8 July.
    The writ (written order) was moved in the Dáil this afternoon, formally starting the campaign to fill the seat vacated by departing Fine Gael TD Eoghan Murphy.

    Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien will sign the polling order confirming the date of the vote.
    Polls on the day will be open from 7am to 10.30pm.

    The by-election has already garnered significant interest, with all of the major parties contesting the vote and informal canvassing already taking place.
    https://www.thejournal.ie/dublin-bay-south-by-election-date-5449727-Jun2021/


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,510 Mod ✭✭✭✭ L1011


    Its not even close to being the most FG constituency in the country, though. In 2002 its predecessor returned 0/4. Mayo has a vastly higher FPV%

    Still Geoghegans to lose, albeit he seems to be doing his best to do that!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,640 ✭✭✭✭ Inquitus


    The Bookies take on it!

    k10GB6P.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    L1011 wrote: »
    Still Geoghegans to lose, albeit he seems to be doing his best to do that!

    Yeah he is the overwhelming favourite but he seems to suffer from foot in mouth syndrome, this from yesterday

    https://twitter.com/aoifegracemoore/status/1404080902863568896

    Its still hard to see him being beaten though if RTE and TV3 hold election debates anything could happen with a slip of the tongue.

    It will be interesting to see how Ivana Bacik does. There is a fair Labour vote in the constituency and if she can get transfers from the Greens she could have a good showing. The bookies have Lynn Boylan as second favourite but I think If Geoghegan were to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory its Ivana Bacik who would be the likely beneficiary


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,938 ✭✭✭ Stovepipe


    I thought the voting public stayed away from Ivana Bacik in droves and she only got a token seat in the Seanad to help her college buddies. About as appealing as cold porridge.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 36,053 ✭✭✭✭ ohnonotgmail


    Bacik is an extremely unlikable person. Not sure why she bothers putting herself forward for elections.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,786 ✭✭✭✭ Annasopra


    Essentially this poll will be a three horse race between Bacik, Boylan and Geogheghan.

    Apparently a "normal" woman is a busty blonde sexy page 3 model who wears make-up, short skirts and red lipsticks and has pouty lips.  Who knew. 👀😏

    ******

    "Heterosexuality is not normal, it's just common"



  • Registered Users Posts: 740 ✭✭✭ JPup


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Yeah he is the overwhelming favourite but he seems to suffer from foot in mouth syndrome, this from yesterday

    https://twitter.com/aoifegracemoore/status/1404080902863568896

    Its still hard to see him being beaten though if RTE and TV3 hold election debates anything could happen with a slip of the tongue.

    It will be interesting to see how Ivana Bacik does. There is a fair Labour vote in the constituency and if she can get transfers from the Greens she could have a good showing. The bookies have Lynn Boylan as second favourite but I think If Geoghegan were to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory its Ivana Bacik who would be the likely beneficiary

    Is that supposed to be a gaffe? The media will try to spin anything!

    He didn’t literally mean the people should be shot! It’s a figure of speech. And I’m far from a FG spokesperson by the way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,335 ✭✭✭✭ Loafing Oaf


    Inquitus wrote: »
    The Bookies take on it!

    k10GB6P.png

    Wishing I had backed Boylan when she was 5/1:mad:


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,510 Mod ✭✭✭✭ L1011


    Two people who aren't even running with better odds than PBP. One of them has better odds than Aontu.

    Really have to wonder if the PR is worth the expense of running.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭ crooked cockney villain


    I'd love to ask Lynn Boylan

    a- why was she one of the most prominent supporters of a spoofer who, with his sisters, were shown to have a leaning towards Islamist extremist politics

    b- what are you going to do about the reality that Roma gypsies and unemployed asylum spoofers have ended up living in 3, even 4 bed semis in Celtic Tiger built estates in D15, or new council houses in Avondale, while people who grew up in D15 commute from Virginia and Kinnegad.

    Sort it out Lynn, or phuck off with your faux concern.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭ McMurphy


    I'd love to ask Lynn Boylan

    Knock yourself out, it's not like she's unreachable.


    [email protected]

    Let us know how you get on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,447 ✭✭✭✭ expectationlost


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    So its looking like the by election for Eoghan Murphys seat in Dublin Bay South is set to take place with Thursday 8th July the likely date and it will serve as this summers political bloodsports. Its unlikely to be as entertaining at last summers edition when we had Golfgate, Seamus Wolfe and Phil Hogans golf tour of Ireland during a pandemic. Nonetheless by elections are always good entertainment with entire party machines focusing all their resources on a single constituency.

    Candidates so far
    James Geoghegan (FG)
    Ivana Bacik (Labour)
    Deirdre Conroy (FF)
    Lynn Boylan (SF)
    Claire Byrne (Green)
    Sarah Durcan (SDs)
    Bridget Purcell (PBP)
    Justin Barrett (National Party)
    Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua)
    Mairead Tobin (Aontu)
    Then there are four Independents- Mannix Flynn, Michael McGrath, Peter Dooley and Norma Burke aka Bunty McFluff

    This seat should be a slam dunk for Fine Gael in what is the most Fine Gael constituency in the entire country. It would have been a certain slam dunk had FG put forward Kate o'Connell who DBS had previously elected but Varadkar decided to shaft her instead. She later complained that FG party activists placed a homemade sign saying 'M50' outside her pharmacy in Rathgar, telling her to go back down the country from where she came. Another FGer brought a lump of turf to a meeting with the intention of handing it to her until some common sense broke out. So the message from FG to Kate o'Connell was clear that she wasnt wanted and that culchies like her are not welcome in Dublin 6.

    Leaving James Geoghegan as the FG front runner and bookies favourite. But his campaign hasnt exactly got off to a flier. He was a former lobbyist for tobacco companies but his excuse is its not his fault for what he works in. Now he is trying to claim that he is not a pro-lifer when he literally worked and campaigned for Lucinda Creighton who stood on a pro life platform and as leader of the pro life party Renua. He is saying he wants to be the voice of the generation who are locked out of the housing market while he himself just bought his first house for 750,000, he is so far removed from your average first time buyer struggling to buy a house that its not funny. So Geoghegan has done a lot of spoofing. But that might not matter in a strong FG consittuency who previously already elected the inanimate carbon rod known as Eoghan Murphy.

    Simon Harris is Fine Gaels Director of Elections for James Geoghegan and has already displayed that uncanny Fine Gael knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Last week he called Sinn Fein "sinister" for using fake polling companies and the very next day his own candidate Geoghegan came out and admitted that he himself had conducted fake polling door to door on behalf of his pro life party Renua. So by Harris' own metric his candidate is now deemed as"sinister", you really couldnt make it up.

    Otherwise Bacik is expected to put in a good showing. Her posters have her on her bicycle so she is aiming at the large Green vote in this constituency. FF Deirdre Conroys campaign already seems dead in the water but it will be fun when she gets asked about her compo claim for falling over when skiing on a free holiday when she worked for the Irish Independent. This is Maria Bailey stuff all over again. Lynn Boylan should have a decent showing but wont come anywhere near taking the seat when transfer get distributed. Lots of eyes will also be on Justin Barrett of the National Party and his anti immigrant rhetoric
    already thread here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=117465842


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭ Northernlily


    The country needs a Sinn Féin upset to rock FGFF to the core. Might get them to actually take stock of some very serious issues we are facing and realise some of the mistakes they have made.

    I still think unfortunatly FF or FG are more equipped to run the country but they need a kicking here and that's what I'm hoping to see.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 991 ✭✭✭ ineedeuro


    The country needs a Sinn Féin upset to rock FGFF to the core. Might get them to actually take stock of some very serious issues we are facing and realise some of the mistakes they have made.

    I still think unfortunatly FF or FG are more equipped to run the country but they need a kicking here and that's what I'm hoping to see.

    Was the whole election last year not the upset?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭ Northernlily


    ineedeuro wrote: »
    Was the whole election last year not the upset?

    It's was, but pandemic aside, they are not moving quick enough on the core issues from that election. Housing and in particular the recently exposed shenanigans with Investment Funds I think is the big one. A lot of focus was placed at the weekend on a very average house in DBS valued at 600000 where bids are currently up to just under €1m.

    Mismanagement of the Health service also badly exposed in the past year.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 991 ✭✭✭ ineedeuro


    It's was, but pandemic aside, they are not moving quick enough on the core issues from that election. Housing and in particular the recently exposed shenanigans with Investment Funds I think is the big one. A lot of focus was placed at the weekend on a very average house in DBS valued at 600000 where bids are currently up to just under €1m.

    Mismanagement of the Health service also badly exposed in the past year.

    Instead of just sticking in a person because you want them for XYZ party
    Would it not be better to get the best politician? if the Sinn fein one is useless then why would anyone want them to win?

    Same goes for every party, if the candidate is terrible they shouldn't win because Daddy was a TD or they are for XYZ.
    ireland has too many bad bad bad politcians who are just in power because they are with a certain party


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,473 ✭✭✭✭ Galwayguy35


    The country needs a Sinn Féin upset to rock FGFF to the core. Might get them to actually take stock of some very serious issues we are facing and realise some of the mistakes they have made.

    I still think unfortunatly FF or FG are more equipped to run the country but they need a kicking here and that's what I'm hoping to see.

    They did get a kicking in Feb 2020, the Shinners never did as well in the polls since the 1918 election.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Last night saw a National Party agitator trying to interogate Fine Gaelers in Ringsend. It was shouty far right politics at its best, stay classy National Party!

    https://twitter.com/DBSBYELECTION21/status/1404770827053240321


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,786 ✭✭✭✭ Annasopra


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Last night saw a National Party agitator trying to interogate Fine Gaelers in Ringsend. It was shouty far right politics at its best, stay classy National Party!

    https://twitter.com/DBSBYELECTION21/status/1404770827053240321

    I reckon they paid the guy in the van to show up

    Apparently a "normal" woman is a busty blonde sexy page 3 model who wears make-up, short skirts and red lipsticks and has pouty lips.  Who knew. 👀😏

    ******

    "Heterosexuality is not normal, it's just common"



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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 991 ✭✭✭ ineedeuro


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Last night saw a National Party agitator trying to interogate Fine Gaelers in Ringsend. It was shouty far right politics at its best, stay classy National Party!

    https://twitter.com/DBSBYELECTION21/status/1404770827053240321

    Stay classy? You having a laugh, when did they ever start to be classy?
    Annasopra wrote: »
    I reckon they paid the guy in the van to show up

    Maybe, maybe not. Some other lunatics will vote for them as well. Remember Gemma has people who follow her


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,223 ✭✭✭ J.O. Farmer


    ineedeuro wrote: »

    Maybe, maybe not. Some other lunatics will vote for them as well. Remember Gemma has people who follow her

    Bit harsh comparing Fine Gael to Gemma and calling their voters lunatics.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,335 ✭✭✭✭ Loafing Oaf


    ineedeuro wrote: »
    Stay classy? You having a laugh

    I'm pretty sure they are...


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Inquitus wrote: »
    The Bookies take on it!

    k10GB6P.png

    The odds in the race have shifted now from that last week
    James Geoghegan Evens
    Lynn Boylan down to 6/4 from 15/8
    Ivana Bacik out to 9/2 from 5/2

    Wonder whats going on, it might be just the bookies balancing their exposure. Unless they truly believe Lynn Boylan has a chance of running Geoghegan close


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Seems Kate o'Connell is doing a good job winding up Leo by having both Mary Lou and Ivana Bacik in her pharmacy in Rathgar. No chance of Fine Gaels candidate showing up there anytime soon

    image.jpg

    https://twitter.com/ivanabacik/status/1408732772793978880


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,734 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    The odds in the race have shifted now from that last week
    James Geoghegan Evens
    Lynn Boylan down to 6/4 from 15/8
    Ivana Bacik out to 9/2 from 5/2

    Wonder whats going on, it might be just the bookies balancing their exposure. Unless they truly believe Lynn Boylan has a chance of running Geoghegan close

    I think you try too hard sometimes.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/labours-bacik-could-come-through-in-dublin-bay-south-by-election-according-to-new-poll-40591305.html

    Lynn is struggling for third place.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    blanch152 wrote: »

    And where did I say she ever had a chance? Nowhere but as usual you're attempting to misrepresent what was actually posted :rolleyes:

    In any case that poll is a bit of a come down for Fine Gael and James Geoghegan because now Ivana Bacik is right on his heels and she is more transfer friendly than he is.

    So its looking like Leo has gotten Fine Gael into another mess. He had a slam dunk candidate in Kate o'Connell who would have won this by election at a stroll but he couldnt get over his petty differences and shafted her instead. This is even coming up on the doorsteps with voters asking why O'Connell is not on the ballot.

    If Fine Gael dont win that seat because Leo threw his toys out of the pram then his own leadership of the party will come under scrutiny. Its bad enough he led them to their second worst ever election performance but losing a safe Fine Gael seat on top of that will have the party turning on him.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,734 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    And where did I say she ever had a chance? Nowhere but as usual you're attempting to misrepresent what was actually posted :rolleyes:

    In any case that poll is a bit of a come down for Fine Gael and James Geoghegan because now Ivana Bacik is right on his heels and she is more transfer friendly than he is.

    So its looking like Leo has gotten Fine Gael into another mess. He had a slam dunk candidate in Kate o'Connell who would have won this by election at a stroll but he couldnt get over his petty differences and shafted her instead. This is even coming up on the doorsteps with voters asking why O'Connell is not on the ballot.

    If Fine Gael dont win that seat because Leo threw his toys out of the pram then his own leadership of the party will come under scrutiny. Its bad enough he led them to their second worst ever election performance but losing a safe Fine Gael seat on top of that will have the party turning on him.


    Wishful thinking in that post. It is amazing the number of posters obsessed with Leo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,734 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    The odds in the race have shifted now from that last week
    James Geoghegan Evens
    Lynn Boylan down to 6/4 from 15/8
    Ivana Bacik out to 9/2 from 5/2

    Wonder whats going on, it might be just the bookies balancing their exposure. Unless they truly believe Lynn Boylan has a chance of running Geoghegan close
    Muahahaha wrote: »
    And where did I say she ever had a chance? Nowhere but as usual you're attempting to misrepresent what was actually posted :rolleyes:

    In any case that poll is a bit of a come down for Fine Gael and James Geoghegan because now Ivana Bacik is right on his heels and she is more transfer friendly than he is.

    So its looking like Leo has gotten Fine Gael into another mess. He had a slam dunk candidate in Kate o'Connell who would have won this by election at a stroll but he couldnt get over his petty differences and shafted her instead. This is even coming up on the doorsteps with voters asking why O'Connell is not on the ballot.

    If Fine Gael dont win that seat because Leo threw his toys out of the pram then his own leadership of the party will come under scrutiny. Its bad enough he led them to their second worst ever election performance but losing a safe Fine Gael seat on top of that will have the party turning on him.

    Surprised that you haven't posted an update on the Paddy Power odds.

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

    Geoghegan 4/6
    Bacik 6/5
    Boylan 10/1

    Bookies appear to have lost all faith in Boylan, maybe trying to attract the delusional SF type.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,511 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Wishful thinking in that post. It is amazing the number of posters obsessed with Leo.

    So you are claiming Fine Gael arent in trouble here? The polls are saying they might be. 10 days to go and Ivana has all the momentum. Fine Gael could yet pay for putting an inanimate carbon rod forward and trying to treat the electorate like mugs.

    It wont be nice for your man Leo if Fine Gael lose this safe seat. He had his chance to win this election with no problems so its all on him if Geoghegan fails to do it.


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