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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021



  • Check out the Dover webcam on Skyline brilliant lightning can't post a link

  • Storm 10 wrote: »
    Check out the Dover webcam on Skyline brilliant lightning can't post a link

    Thanks for that,what a beautiful looking place and so much lightning

  • Thunder and lightning in Madrid last night so its sourced all the way down there.

    We may get some before Junes out

  • See a few mentions of Thunder on ME Forecast for the week end , any updates on where this might happen.

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  • Some interest this weekend for convective weather with a chance of some heavy localized rain and some thunderstorm potential. Slow approaching Lp well off our W feeding in frontal bands and troughs , slowly rotating upper low. Temp quite warm in Munster on Sat with a high Dp and again Sun DP quite high and temps
    probably getting up into the high teens or around 20C in places. High Theta E readings, not much deep layer shear but good low level convergence a possibility.







  • Increasing potential again for Thunderstorm activity on Saturday , maybe some isolated storms from early morning more so in Southern counties but increasing from the afternoon across the country when temps get going. The ECM KO index is showing a decent potential, high Theta E readings, some high Dp's showing up , as much as 17C .

    Soundings showing some very heavy localized rain possible . Warm and humid and probably feeling quite muggy.

    Could easily have a yellow warning with this I would think but as always hard to pin point where would get the heaviest downpours, some well defined convergence zones showing up and topography playing its part aiding lift, slow moving systems so some places could get a right drenching even leading to spot flooding whilst areas even close by could have minor rainfall.

    Also potential for Sunday.






  • GFS also showing some thunderstorm potential on Saturday over the south-west and into midland areas on Saturday afternoon/evening.


    WRF also shows potential but this model often goes overboard with it which was the case last summer.


    Arpege going for some thundery potential as well.


  • Hi Res model AROME showing decent CAPE value's tomorrow. Convergence most evident in Clare / Connaught and the midlands, probably favour that area to peak in the afternoon tomorrow but anywhere could get the chance of an isolated storm tomorrow apart from the N which looks to be a low risk.





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  • ECM showing some small chance of a few sferics along Southern coasts later tonight and in the early morning.

    Showing a lot of energy building in Munster tomorrow morning leading to some heavy rain and possible thunderstorms breaking out late morning/ early afternoon as the occluded front moves up the country. Showing a nice area of convergence around Limerick / Clare from the early afternoon , I wonder will this have a bearing on the amount of activity / heavy rain for there . Showing widespread potential as the chart below highlights .

    Soundings for near Limerick at 13.00








  • Decent risk of storms and intense downpours Sunday and the east is in play. North Leinster and North Connaught most at risk. Should be interesting.

  • CBF916-C6-D899-4781-AB08-708153652-E11.png

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Jul 2021

    ISSUED 07:22 UTC Sat 03 Jul 2021

    ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

    Broad upper trough will extend from the North Atlantic across the UK/Ireland on Saturday, to the north of the main jet activity which will run across Iberia and the Mediterranean. The subsequent cooling aloft atop a moist boundary layer (dewpoints of 14-17C, locally higher in East Anglia) will create a widely unstable environment in many areas, with the potential for deep convection and scattered showers/thunderstorms in numerous places.

    Initially in the morning a PVA lobe will lift northwards across England and Wales, creating broad ascent with showery outbreaks of rain - with the potential for embedded convection to enhance rainfall intensity. As this early rain clears, increasing insolation and surface heating will help yield as much as 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE in places with forecast profiles revealing an incremental decrease in RH with height. For the most part, winds will be fairly unidirectional with height with only a slight increase in speed - the net result is fairly weak shear (generally 10-15kts), however stronger upper-level flow over eastern England could aid in better organisation/longevity of cells here with a greater potential for marginally-severe hail and perhaps an isolated tornado, especially where vorticity stretching occurs as updrafts move over existing low-level convergence. Particular focus on Norfolk and perhaps Lincolnshire.

    In general, the slow storm motion coupled with any backbuilding could result in local flash flooding - this appears greatest over Devon and Somerset where a persistent convergence zone aligned near-parallel with the steering flow could result in multiple cells running over similar areas, giving locally very high rainfall totals. As a result a SVR has been introduced for the heightened threat of flash flooding, especially given the terrain and catchment response in the area.

    A gradual weakening trend is likely through the mid-late evening, however PVA lifting north across northern England and southern Scotland may continue to aid development here for a time into the night hours. Otherwise, the main focus during the overnight period turns once again to the English Channel (and eventually southern England) as another PVA lobe encourages broad lift and areas of showery rain to develop - and again there will be the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes given weak/skinny CAPE.

  • Status: Yellow
    Risk of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with risk of hail and spot flooding.
    Status Yellow - Thunderstorm warning for Cavan, Clare, Limerick, Tipperary, Galway, Leitrim, Roscommon, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Risk of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with risk of hail and spot flooding.

    Valid: 14:00 Saturday 03/07/2021 to 22:00 Saturday 03/07/2021

    Issued: 11:55 Saturday 03/07/2021

  • Some heavy downpours near Limerick city at around 12.30 this afternoon. Didn’t hear any thunder.

  • Thunderstorm warning for the North Sunday

    Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out from late morning on Sunday, perhaps becoming quite widespread during the afternoon. Some places will miss the worst of these, but where they do occur, 20 to 30 mm rain could fall in a short space of time leading to some surface water flooding. Lightning and hail will be additional hazards. Showers and thunderstorms will only slowly ease during the evening and some could persist well into the night.

  • Report of CB's from Shannon, showing up nicely on Sat , moving towards the midlands, can make out the converging winds

    Sunshine getting through now here near Tralee, 19.1C, humid







  • Heavy rain in Limerick around 1.30pm.

    No thunder or lightning to report yet

  • Some long rumbles outside of Roscommon now in the distance.

  • hbhook wrote: »
    Some long rumbles outside of Roscommon now in the distance.

    Yep, nice cell outside Athleague has since moved north east of Roscommon

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  • Heard that loud long rumble from North East Galway. Wasnt near a window tho to see any sparks!

  • Long loud thunderclap here in Athlone just now, missed the light show unfortunately.

  • Also missed the light show, but loads of long low rumbles away to the North of the town

  • Couple of rumbles Westmeath Offaly border. We've had over 20mm of rain since midnight. Almost as much as the entire month of June already.

  • A grey mess out there today. Pour soup unfortunately

  • Thunder and some heavy downpours in South Leitrim.

  • Thunderstorm activity slow to get going today and less active as the models might have predicted , still some heavy rainfall recorded.



  • Plenty of convective potential tomorrow with heavy rain again and perhaps more widespread in the Eastern half of the country especially N Leinster, Northern counties, N midlands. Thunderstorm potential there with temps getting up to the high teens or touching 20C, high Dp's up to 15 or 16C . Pronounced areas of convergence and some more Deep layer shear than today should help to fire up some more electrical activity I would think. Heavy showers getting going from early.






  • AROME is interesting for the E tomorrow. Showing an area of convergence and some decent CAPE values. Will there be a shot of thunderstorm activity ?

    Showing getting up to around 19 or 20C with Dp's as high as 16 or 17C









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