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The Delta variant

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  • #1142
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    FileNotFound wrote: »
    There is no technically about it - that is 100% what these vaccines and every other vaccine in the world does.

    Flu jab efficacy is somewhere below 70% if i recall and only cover a small number of the known variants at any time (4 more prevalent in the precious year or comething similar) - (Stand open for correction on the specifics here). Covid will be the same in years to come.

    We haven't actually lost anything to the delta based on actual real world figures coming out of the UK. Cases high but mortality and hospitalization low. At least all thats what all the charts floating round in these threads show.

    So I would disagree and say that it is going as planned but people expected magic.

    No - there are plenty of vaccines out there that will stop transmission also. It largely depends on what virus you are vaccinating against. Plenty of vaccines will stop you from transmitting.


  • #1143
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19

    That's from April. It's now out of date.

    Because of delta we have lost a huge advantage. Take the time to wrap your head around this so you don't go around accusing people of spreading misinformation.

    An apology would be nice once you've managed to grasp it

    By reducing symptoms the vaccine reduce transmissibility - but the virus is still transmissible. You still shed the virus even if vaccinated. This has not changed.

    No covid vaccine to date was ever a perfect vaccine. They are all "leaky" vaccines, which is fine. But they have been like that from the outset, and delta has changed nothing.


  • #1144
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19

    That's from April. It's now out of date.

    Because of delta we have lost a huge advantage. Take the time to wrap your head around this so you don't go around accusing people of spreading misinformation.

    An apology would be nice once you've managed to grasp it

    The first line of that piece says "Now scientists are trying to learn if vaccines stop transmissability" - does not seem to be based on any studies ( Not sure there are many as we only had vaccines a few months).

    As vaccine efficacy is low against some strains (even lower in adenovirus vaccines for the variants other than delta) it will spread in the vaccinated and even make some sick.

    I think the misinformation statement was wrong but I believe the poster is accurate in stating nothing has changed really.


  • #1145
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    timmyntc wrote: »
    By reducing symptoms the vaccine reduce transmissibility - but the virus is still transmissible. You still shed the virus even if vaccinated. This has not changed.

    No covid vaccine to date was ever a perfect vaccine. They are all "leaky" vaccines, which is fine. But they have been like that from the outset, and delta has changed nothing.

    It is SIGNIFICANTLY leakier

    Lets say you have a care home where a couple of feisty residents refuse the vax. Well prior to delta, if you vaxed everyone else around them then they were highly unlikely to get covid as the vaccinated acted as a barrier. They were less likely to get covid, and if they did, they were less likely to spread it as they were unlikely to become symptomatic.

    That is gone. Or lessened to the extent that it can no longer be relied upon.

    That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.


  • #1146
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    TonyMaloney wrote: »

    Because of delta we have lost a huge advantage.

    Nonsense or wishful thinking. The only advantage we have lost it spreads quicker. So we have to get the vaccines out quicker. The government have announced the vaccine program will be ramping up. There is also evidence emerging it helps to prevent transmission. The vaccines are still effective.


    We are vaccinating 200k/300k a week. We may see rises in cases but as July/August progresses they will significantly drop again.

    So what’s your solution Tony? Should we keep restrictions and lockdowns indefinately? Shut the airports?


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  • #1147
    JMNolan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,076 ✭✭✭JMNolan


    MHdwuRS.png

    Hopefully the link between cases and hospitalizations/deaths is broken. A fourth wave in Ireland is meaningless in that case. Might as well talk about a wave in flu.


  • #1148
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    TonyMaloney wrote: »

    That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.

    It seems your beloved NPHET might not even understand how vaccines work


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1410673460624465920?s=21


  • #1149
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    It is SIGNIFICANTLY leakier

    Lets say you have a care home where a couple of feisty residents refuse the vax. Well prior to delta, if you vaxed everyone else around them then they were highly unlikely to get covid as the vaccinated acted as a barrier. They were less likely to get covid, and if they did, they were less likely to spread it as they were unlikely to become symptomatic.

    That is gone. Or lessened to the extent that it can no longer be relied upon.

    That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.


    So are we going to wait until a new vaccine for the delta variant is created? Another 6 months?

    Then what about the Gamma variant (The next name for the next new variant) - back to lockdown for that until the next vaccine?


  • #1150
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    It is SIGNIFICANTLY leakier

    Lets say you have a care home where a couple of feisty residents refuse the vax. Well prior to delta, if you vaxed everyone else around them then they were highly unlikely to get covid as the vaccinated acted as a barrier. They were less likely to get covid, and if they did, they were less likely to spread it as they were unlikely to become symptomatic.

    That is gone. Or lessened to the extent that it can no longer be relied upon.

    That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.

    No. The vaccinated people would still get infected with covid. The vaccine just gives their immune system a head start in fighting it off.

    If you test them they may show as positive for covid, but as their immune system is already primed to deal with it the fact that they caught the virus from another resident is hopefully mostly irrelevant. That the virus then can't take hold in them reduces the chances of them passing it on to someone else.

    The vaccine doesn't stop you catching covid, it stops you getting ill from it... Hopefully.


  • #1151
    Mimon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Mimon


    topdecko wrote: »
    If as seems possible we get a load of JandJ vaccines in the coming weeks and bump up our baseline vaccination level then we should be in a better position in 2-3 weeks. however this creation of deadlines and then recurrent delays and u turns is creating alot of unrest. some of the policies aren't thought through either and are announced off the cuff in an attempt to appease the public.
    the idea of vaccinated people having more rights is surely unconstitutional especially when the youth are yet again massively disadvantaged by a condition which doesn't really impact them. You would have the bizzare situation where a young person couldn't get served in a cafe yet would almost certainly make up a large part of the workforce in said cafes. We need coherence and appropriate level of response..... cases rising in UK but what about hospitalizations and deaths..

    This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.


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  • #1152
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    robinph wrote: »
    No. The vaccinated people would still get infected with covid. The vaccine just gives their immune system a head start in fighting it off.

    If you test them they may show as positive for covid, but as their immune system is already primed to deal with it the fact that they caught the virus from another resident is hopefully mostly irrelevant. That the virus then can't take hold in them reduces the chances of them passing it on to someone else.

    The vaccine doesn't stop you catching covid, it stops you getting ill from it... Hopefully.

    I don't really know what to say to all this.

    The vaccines were helping to dramatically reduce transmission. Against a virus whose biggest strength is it's transmit-ability, that was huge.

    It wasn't expected. As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

    That advantage has been lost to delta. Fortunately with MRNA tech it's hopefully only a temporary thing.

    Our current vaccines are still bloody fantastic. Get them into you as fast as you can.


  • #1153
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    Mimon wrote: »
    This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.



    While I actually was of the opinion we should have been giving more freedom to vaccinated people months ago - from a purely get the economy running and reduce my future tax burden perspective.


    Just because others have done things does not mean they are fair or right - economically makes sense (so fine by me - already being taxed to pay for one recession, don't need another national debt to clear), you have to accept that those who were and have been low risk from covid being told F you at the end is pretty poor.

    Also other nations brought these measures in way back which made sense - we will soon be chasing UK numbers of vaccination so I think the vaccine passport boat kinds floated away a while back.


  • #1154
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I don't really know what to say to all this.

    The vaccines were helping to dramatically reduce transmission. Against a virus whose biggest strength is it's transmit-ability, that was huge.

    It wasn't expected. As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

    That advantage has been lost to delta. Fortunately with MRNA tech it's hopefully only a temporary thing.

    Our current vaccines are still bloody fantastic. Get them into you as fast as you can.
    Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..


  • #1155
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Mimon wrote: »
    This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.

    No its not. In the EU countries that have "vaccine passes" - they also accept proof of a negative covid test.
    So there is no discrimination against those not vaccinated.

    The proposal in Ireland is unique in that a negative test is not enough!
    Which is strange, because even with a vaccine you can get covid and spread it - a negative test is actually safer than just a vaccine. But sure Tony knows best!


  • #1156
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,445 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Mimon wrote: »
    This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.

    No it isn't. European countries also use antigen testing for their corona passes. The initial suggestion from NPHET / government was that we would only use vaccine status (or evidence of recovery) for our passes. Completely different and very discriminatory.


  • #1157
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I don't really know what to say to all this.

    The vaccines were helping to dramatically reduce transmission. Against a virus whose biggest strength is it's transmit-ability, that was huge.

    It wasn't expected. As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

    That advantage has been lost to delta. Fortunately with MRNA tech it's hopefully only a temporary thing.

    Our current vaccines are still bloody fantastic. Get them into you as fast as you can.


    Its epic transmissability was expected though (Sure delta is quicker) but it was a novel virus in a world population with no defenses. We saw that in italy march 2020 - 1 month to cripple the nations health service.

    I imagine most here will or have got a vaccine - but there will be a point where we return to normal and people will still continue to die from or with covid. Thats a reality according to WHO when they say it will be indemic.


  • #1158
    Danzy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I keep hearing a variation of this repeated - "the vaccines were not designed to stop infection, they just give the person protection from serious disease".
    And while technically correct it completely ignores that with original covid and other known variants, the vaccines did largely provide immunity from infection.

    It was a huge advantage that we've effectively lost to delta.
    Vaccinated people helped to protect the non-vaccinated, but that is as good as over now.

    That's just being dramatic for it's own sake.

    Your post is ignoring evidence, it's catastrophizing.


  • #1159
    Danzy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

    No, it hasn't been lost or anything close.


  • #1160
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

    Sorry, I don't mean lost. Not entirely.
    But it's reduced to the point where a vaccinated person could no longer be thought of as a barrier to the non-vaccinated.


  • #1161
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..


    The latest study being touted about the J&J vaccine in SA I think seems to indicate its highly effective.

    The UK hospital and mortality figures would seem to indicate AZ is highly effective.

    Haven't seen anything to say they actually are not beyond the usual scaremongering to be fair.

    One thing NPHET could do is actually find decent studies and inform the nation on them in a nice clear way.


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  • #1162
    brickster69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Interesting article from Spain. A few weeks behind the UK so looking ominous for continued travel soon.

    https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-07-02/spain-records-new-rise-in-coronavirus-infection-rate-as-cases-among-young-people-continue-to-spike.html

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #1163
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

    Weakened rather than lost
    A newer generation of vaccines will restore it
    Rinse and repeat
    The oft quoted about worldwide vaccinations line 'we're not safe untill everyone's safe' is true here
    When large countries are mostly unvaccinated ,then newer dangerous variants will always pop up
    The virus can't talk,So its impossible to completely seal Ireland from one of them and as we know,once its in,its in


  • #1164
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Sorry, I don't mean lost. Not entirely.
    But it's reduced to the point where a vaccinated person could no longer be thought of as a barrier to the non-vaccinated.
    I'm not even sure this is the case. A lot of conflicting science and reporting out there.


  • #1165
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Tony is correct.

    Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

    With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

    Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.


  • #1166
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    FileNotFound wrote: »
    The latest study being touted about the J&J vaccine in SA I think seems to indicate its highly effective.

    The UK hospital and mortality figures would seem to indicate AZ is highly effective.

    Haven't seen anything to say they actually are not beyond the usual scaremongering to be fair.

    One thing NPHET could do is actually find decent studies and inform the nation on them in a nice clear way    .
    Good point. Every day I hear someone on the radio say vaccines are less effective (Stephen Donnelly on Pat Kenny yesterday for example), but it depends on which metric you're using to determine efficacy. PHE showed that the vaccines are actually more effective against hospitalisation for Delta than Alpha. But of course, we can't have such positivity being reported..:pac:


  • #1167
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Tony is correct.

    Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

    With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50% percent. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

    Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

    If that were what was happening then the numbers for cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK would have the decimal point two places further to the right.


  • #1168
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    I'm not even sure this is the case. A lot of conflicting science and reporting out there.

    Fair play, don't take me at face value.

    I'm trying to find a good source


  • #1169
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    robinph wrote: »
    If that were what was happening then the numbers for cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK would have the decimal point two places further to the right.

    Explain


  • #1170
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Tony is correct.

    Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

    With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

    Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.


    But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

    Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.


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  • #1171
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Tony is correct.

    Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

    With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

    Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.
    Not being condescending or anything, but do you have any source for this? Trying to find the right data/info is tough, it's a minefield out there!


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