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The Delta variant

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,860 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Herd immunity occurs at 75-80%.
    Will we reach that number though as children under 12 won’t be vaccinated (atm) and the anti vaxers.

    Less antivaxxers in Ireland than other countries.
    Children under 12 may not need vaccination unless vulnerable conditions .
    That has still to be decided.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,398 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
    Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

    I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

    Is it not also based on how effective a vaccine is?
    I don't think anyone can calculate it as there's too many variables.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
    Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

    I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

    90% with delta vs 75-80% with original strain? Yikes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,275 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
    Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

    I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=117554953&postcount=4169


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,860 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
    Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

    I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

    Heard this too directly related to Delta .
    Mark Coughlan on PrimeTime but don't know his source .


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Less antivaxxers in Ireland than other countries.
    Children under 12 may not need vaccination unless vulnerable conditions .
    That has still to be decided.

    Yes but if you need a high percentage 80%+, of people vaccinated/infected to reach herd, then ignoring under 12’s means you may not reach herd due to, well, numbers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,860 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    snowcat wrote: »
    Wishful thinking. You are going to be jabbed every 6 months if you are a vaccine fan and it still wont make a difference. As we have found out the virus is one step ahead.

    No. It has already been said that they think we have immunity lasting a couple of years from the vaccinations.
    Boosters just for elderly and vulnerable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,860 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Yes but if you need a high percentage 80%+, of people vaccinated/infected to reach herd, then ignoring under 12’s means you may not reach herd due to, well, numbers.

    Wild type immunity from infections also is believed yo last at least 9 months ...and rising .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    No. It has already been said that they think we have immunity lasting a couple of years from the vaccinations.
    Boosters just for elderly and vulnerable.

    I’ve never seen anything saying we have immunity for 2 years (which would be fantastic news). Has this been publicised?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Yes but if you need a high percentage 80%+, of people vaccinated/infected to reach herd, then ignoring under 12’s means you may not reach herd due to, well, numbers.

    Well, you'll also get some immunity from infection.

    In fact it's almost as though that's the unspoken plan. Let the kids get the virus. Vaccines for the grownups. It'll all be grand. Shussshhh


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Wild type immunity from infections also is believed yo last at least 9 months ...and rising .

    Well that is good but I suppose the problem being wild infections = hospitalisations, which I though was no longer a thing until I ventured back into this thread!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    snowcat wrote: »
    And then are we prepared to allow children to die from complications who have a greater risk from the vaccine than Covid?

    ? Are you saying kids will die directly from taking the vaccines?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,146 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    tom1ie wrote: »
    90% with delta vs 75-80% with original strain? Yikes.


    It could well be that high. R0 for Delta is possibly 7 or 8, with no control measures at all. Its an incredibly transmissible virus now.


    Now, does it matter, with vaccinations etc. That is the big question.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    tom1ie wrote: »
    ? Are you saying kids will die directly from taking the vaccines?

    Not sure what you are leaning to but yes some will die from taking the vaccine. Very rare but from stats more than from initially contracting the virus and then dying from it


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69




    Now, does it matter, with vaccinations etc. That is the big question.

    All that matters at the moment is having 2 doses. Who knows after that.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Just imagine how brutal it could have been if the Indian variant was the original one.

    It would have overwhelmed before any measures.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    It could well be that high. R0 for Delta is possibly 7 or 8, with no control measures at all. Its an incredibly transmissible virus now.


    Now, does it matter, with vaccinations etc. That is the big question.

    Agreed.
    Well if you look at some of the stats on here it’s not great reading.
    3.5k in hospital that were double vaccinated?
    By the way I presume that was double vaccinated with at least 10 days since second dose.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 710 ✭✭✭TefalBrain


    Fils wrote: »
    We will be in level 5 by August. Nphet are backing the fourth wave.

    I know you say that tongue in cheek but nothing would surprise me now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    snowcat wrote: »
    Wishful thinking. You are going to be jabbed every 6 months if you are a vaccine fan and it still wont make a difference. As we have found out the virus is one step ahead.


    I hope you are wrong but it's too early to say yet until most are vaccinated here. Maybe a highly infectious 'harmless' variant will emerge?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    snowcat wrote: »
    Not sure what you are leaning to but yes some will die from taking the vaccine. Very rare but from stats more than from initially contracting the virus and then dying from it

    How do you know this?
    Has there been studies on vaccinating under 12s?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Agreed.
    Well if you look at some of the stats on here it’s not great reading.
    3.5k in hospital that were double vaccinated?
    By the way I presume that was double vaccinated with at least 10 days since second dose.

    3.5K who tested positive

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    3.5K who tested positive

    Ok. I must have misread that.
    3.5k who tested positive, but didn’t impact the hospital service. So what’s the issue there?
    Genuine question.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    tom1ie wrote: »
    How do you know this?
    Has there been studies on vaccinating under 12s?

    No but there is stats on the amount of under 18's who pass from Covid. It is miniscule. Once you factor in the chance of contrating the virus it is infititesimal. The Vaccine is much more dangerous for an U18


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Danzy wrote: »
    Just imagine how brutal it could have been if the Indian variant was the original one.

    It would have overwhelmed before any measures.


    Good point. It could have been! We really need to be able to shut down air travel from an outbreak country at short notice in future.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,780 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    snowcat wrote: »
    No but there is stats on the amount of under 18's who pass from Covid. It is miniscule. Once you factor in the chance of contrating the virus it is infititesimal. The Vaccine is much more dangerous for an U18

    Is that your own opinion, or is it backed up by some form of scientific data?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,016 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    snowcat wrote: »
    No but there is stats on the amount of under 18's who pass from Covid. It is miniscule. Once you factor in the chance of contrating the virus it is infititesimal. The Vaccine is much more dangerous for an U18

    But the vaccine reduces transmission no?
    What is the % chance of an u18 dying from taking the vaccine? I’d say it’s fairly infinitesimal aswell.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    Pinch Flat wrote: »
    Is that your own opinion, or is it backed up by some form of scientific data?

    Google is your friend but sure ill bite

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    tom1ie wrote: »
    But the vaccine reduces transmission no?
    What is the % chance of an u18 dying from taking the vaccine? I’d say it’s fairly infinitesimal aswell.

    We dont know yet as we are waiting on data but it cant be much lower than the chance of dying in the wild. And it is not looking good with the proven fatalities in the 20-40 age group from the Vaccine


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,275 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    snowcat wrote: »
    And it is not looking good with the proven fatalities in the 20-40 age group from the Vaccine
    How many proven vaccine fatalities have there been in the 20-40 age group?

    With source please.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Ok. I must have misread that.
    3.5k who tested positive, but didn’t impact the hospital service. So what’s the issue there?
    Genuine question.

    No issue, probably just isolated and that's it, like everyone does.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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