Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

normanoffside wrote: »

To put that in perspective we have had 270k cases in 16 months.

Indeed and in the under 45's how many lost their lives? Fifty four. And that's out of 270k people who tested positive out of the population. The number who were actually infected and weren't tested as positives is going to be a higher figure again. Likely quite a bit higher. But for the craic let's imagine that all of those 270,000 were the only ones who were infected with COvid 19. The overall mortality rate for the under 45's was ...drumroll... 0.02 percent. But nay I hear ye say, that's across all age groups rather than the under 45's. OK and fair enough. 157668 under 45's returned a positive covid 19 test, the percentage of deaths accounting for that age group was?.. 0.034% Again set against actually tested and confirmed positive cases.

Now let's look at the people hit the hardest and by some margin, those over 65. 31314 tested positive and 4510 passed away. The biggest slice of the nearly 5000 dead by a long way. Even among this group the death rate of tested positive people was 14%. That's a fcuking disaster and a tragedy, especially when it ran through nursing homes. However, today those most vulnerable have either caught it and are still around with us and/or have been fully vaccinated which reduces hospitalisation and mortality to pretty much nothing unless your name is Mr Unluck O'Unlucky of 1 Cursed Providence Avenue.

In short the risks were low, but at the same time too many old and compromised people died. That tragedy is in the past now, open the hell up.

Stheno wrote: »

The modelling this time had been shown to be erroneous

The modelling in May predicted 500 in ICU this week if contacts doubled

Guess what?

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1409885270049239048?s=19

Modelling is too often flim flam dressed up in fancy maths masquerading as a science with pie charts in PowerPoint, beloved of middle management who need to spend the end of year budget and look like they're doing something. This has been very much laid bare in this pandemic. At the start of this and even well into it when data from closed systems of mostly elderly people on cruise ships was coming in and showing it wasn't the Black Death personified(thank christ), we had the sky falling in merchants going on about 10, 20, even 40,000 potentially dead in Ireland. Makes for great copy and plugs into the understandably fearful, but it quickly turned out to be bollocks of the finest quality.

EDIT and by the by, those figures I quoted in my previous post come from the Wikipedia source on the pandemic in Ireland. I'm not getting this from Sharon on Arsebook. I'm not even on Arsebook.