The Delta variant

Looking at NPHETs scenarios they all seem to hover around 0.3% IFR. The hard data we have on delta variants right now in the UK is less than half that, 0.13%.

Also NPHETs models do not seem to allow for increasing vaccination rate over the coming months.

Their models do not stand up to even a laymans scrutiny.

How can scientists not know by now whether or not the Delta variant is worse than either the original strain or the English variant?

Tenger wrote: »

They do know that it is more transmissible. The unknown is whether it is more deadly.
As the majority of Delta cases have been among the younger parts of the population, who should be less susceptible to the illness.
So is the lower rate of hospitalisation and death a function of the virus or the agr group infected? That is the current debate.

But the scientists can answer that question by studying the effect that the Delta variant has had in its country of origin - India - can't they?!

political analyst wrote: »

But the scientists can answer that question by studying the effect that the Delta variant has had in its country of origin - India - can't they?!

No, not really. The data from India is unreliable, many believe deaths are underreported and even if the data was reliable, comparison isn't simple with differences in population density and demographics and vaccination levels. The best comparisons we can look at is the UK. Deaths and hospitalisations are not rising in proportion to cases the way they did with earlier waves.

political analyst wrote: »

How can scientists not know by now whether or not the Delta variant is worse than either the original strain or the English variant?

This is a really good, valid question. It's hard to get any good statistical data when a variant is still very new, because people are just now getting infected.


One way to assess transmissibility in the short term is to look at households, and see how many other household members become infected after a single household member has been infected.
Current results seem to indicate Delta infects more, so transmissibility seems to be higher.


As to how severe the new variant is, virologist Sandra Ciesek, head of virology in Frankfurt, said earlier this week that it's too early for a clear picture. Many people are still hospitalised, meaning, it's too early for statistical data on how many days on average hospitalisation lasts.

She also pointed out that, during times of low incidence that we have right now, a relatively small actual number of Delta cases makes a relatively large statistical difference.


That not withstanding, her experience based estimate is that Delta is already the dominant variant in Germany right now, even though the numbers, which are always a few weeks behind, don't quite reflect that yet.

political analyst wrote: »

But the scientists can answer that question by studying the effect that the Delta variant has had in its country of origin - India - can't they?!

Some people are attributing the high death rate due to delta covid in India to hospitals being overwhelmed rather than to fatality of Covid delta.

Theres also debate as to whether the Indians sequence enough covid cases to determine the variant.

Scotland again with a new record for daily cases - 3,887

Portugal also shooting up - 2,362 new cases

Mimon wrote: »

Faking /exaggerating an illness to jump the vaccine queue is absolutely disgusting and as I said selfish.

No one said they are faking or exaggerating an illness. I wouldn't begrudge anyone who rings their GP, tells them exactly what condition they have and then they are offered a vaccine.

If they're not entitled to a vaccine then the GP shouldn't be giving them one, simple as. It's not for the person requesting a vaccine to decide whether they get it or not.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Scotland again with a new record for daily cases - 3,887

Portugal also shooting up - 2,362 new cases

Over 26,000 cases in the UK

375 in NI. not great, but thankfully the incidence level is significantly bellow Eng & SCotland

landofthetree wrote: »

Scientists had feared that hospital cases would rise rapidly from 128 on Saturday to more than 750 by the end of July. There was a chance that nearly 2,000 people would end up in hospital by the end of next month, close to the second wave peak at the end of January.

But Scottish government forecasters have lowered estimates to 200-300 hospital cases by the end of next month.


But Scottish government forecasters have lowered estimates to 200-300 hospital cases by the end of next month.

The latest modelling states: “Scientists have been scrutinising Delta variant cases in Scotland and now believe its impact on hospital admissions will be dramatically lower than previously feared.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-in-scotland-experts-say-indian-variant-will-have-less-impact-than-feared-n733vcj2k

1% of beds in England currently with Covid patients.

brickster69 wrote: »

1% of beds in England currently with Covid patients.

For a country that is almost fully-open, that is a tiny figure.

Scotland data with log scales, makes it a bit easier to see the trends.





edit: ICU seems OK though.



Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/

brickster69 wrote: »

Admissions going up about 200/week after discharges. A total of 1300 hospitals in England.

Looks like it will take something catastrophic to overwhelm the NHS.

Ya, and I think if the politicans in this country were honest with us they would admit the issue here is that the HSE isn't fit for purpose. Even a small increase in admissions cannot be tolerated. Probably the main reason we need more vaccinated before opening up further

Beanybabog wrote: »

For people who think Nphets predictions are nonsense (most people here it seems), what do you think will actually happen? Would you expect no rise in cases, a small rise, or a significant wave? And when will we know? I have no idea but I do think (regardless of deaths and hospitalisation figures) any noticeable rise in cases because of delta that’s it for indoor dining, and travel If they can get away with it.

We should just stop tracking cases altogether and just focus on daily hospital admissions.

What will happen? Cases will increase yeah so what?

Hospitalisations may increase slightly but once it's manageable (say less than 300 in hospital at any point in time) then I think that's acceptable and they should crack on re-opening everything.

Beanybabog wrote: »

For people who think Nphets predictions are nonsense (most people here it seems), what do you think will actually happen? Would you expect no rise in cases, a small rise, or a significant wave? And when will we know? I have no idea but I do think (regardless of deaths and hospitalisation figures) any noticeable rise in cases because of delta that’s it for indoor dining, and travel If they can get away with it.

Who gives a fcuk about cases if it doesn't translate into hospital capacity? I expect cases to rise significantly and hospitalisations to rise marginally and in 3 or 4 weeks the gov will be back tracking. But once again, they've completely misjudged the public opinion here and it is going to cost them in the next election. If it was up to Tony we'd be in a lockdown every winter to stop the flu season and give his buddies working in the hospitals an easier time of it. Micheal Martin has so little backbone it's a wonder he can stand upright at all.