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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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CIARAN_BOYLE

Beanybabog wrote: »

For people who think Nphets predictions are nonsense (most people here it seems), what do you think will actually happen? Would you expect no rise in cases, a small rise, or a significant wave? And when will we know? I have no idea but I do think (regardless of deaths and hospitalisation figures) any noticeable rise in cases because of delta that’s it for indoor dining, and travel If they can get away with it.

Most of the people who think NPHET predictions are nonsense don't know what NPHET predictions are. They read worst case scenario in the models and assume this is NPHET being silly and saying what's going to happen.

They then use it an excuse to mock nphet.

NPHET models of a worst case scenario are exactly that. Not a NPHET prediction.

VonLuck

Mimon wrote: »

Faking /exaggerating an illness to jump the vaccine queue is absolutely disgusting and as I said selfish.

No one said they are faking or exaggerating an illness. I wouldn't begrudge anyone who rings their GP, tells them exactly what condition they have and then they are offered a vaccine.

If they're not entitled to a vaccine then the GP shouldn't be giving them one, simple as. It's not for the person requesting a vaccine to decide whether they get it or not.

Beanybabog

For people who think Nphets predictions are nonsense (most people here it seems), what do you think will actually happen? Would you expect no rise in cases, a small rise, or a significant wave? And when will we know? I have no idea but I do think (regardless of deaths and hospitalisation figures) any noticeable rise in cases because of delta that’s it for indoor dining, and travel If they can get away with it.

TonyMaloney

Scotland again with a new record for daily cases - 3,887

Portugal also shooting up - 2,362 new cases

Furze99

In a retail outlet today, what looked like an older woman, masked, at the sales counter. Three spasms of coughing in front of the young shop assistant in a short time as I beat a hasty retreat. Unbelievable after a year, quite possibly nothing to do with Covid but really poor public behaviour.

CIARAN_BOYLE

political analyst wrote: »

But the scientists can answer that question by studying the effect that the Delta variant has had in its country of origin - India - can't they?!

Some people are attributing the high death rate due to delta covid in India to hospitals being overwhelmed rather than to fatality of Covid delta.

Theres also debate as to whether the Indians sequence enough covid cases to determine the variant.

Mimon

amandstu wrote: »

It is wrong for you to advocate deceitful queue jumping techniques -and for the mods here to allow it.

This.

Unicorn Milk Latte

political analyst wrote: »

How can scientists not know by now whether or not the Delta variant is worse than either the original strain or the English variant?

This is a really good, valid question. It's hard to get any good statistical data when a variant is still very new, because people are just now getting infected.

One way to assess transmissibility in the short term is to look at households, and see how many other household members become infected after a single household member has been infected.
Current results seem to indicate Delta infects more, so transmissibility seems to be higher.

As to how severe the new variant is, virologist Sandra Ciesek, head of virology in Frankfurt, said earlier this week that it's too early for a clear picture. Many people are still hospitalised, meaning, it's too early for statistical data on how many days on average hospitalisation lasts.

She also pointed out that, during times of low incidence that we have right now, a relatively small actual number of Delta cases makes a relatively large statistical difference.

That not withstanding, her experience based estimate is that Delta is already the dominant variant in Germany right now, even though the numbers, which are always a few weeks behind, don't quite reflect that yet.

Mimon

funnydoggy wrote: »

Disgusting comment.

Faking /exaggerating an illness to jump the vaccine queue is absolutely disgusting and as I said selfish.

OwenM

political analyst wrote: »

But the scientists can answer that question by studying the effect that the Delta variant has had in its country of origin - India - can't they?!

No, not really. The data from India is unreliable, many believe deaths are underreported and even if the data was reliable, comparison isn't simple with differences in population density and demographics and vaccination levels. The best comparisons we can look at is the UK. Deaths and hospitalisations are not rising in proportion to cases the way they did with earlier waves.

Ballynally

Ballynally wrote: »

I am following dr. Mobeen.
The link was on his Youtube site in the description
https://youtu.be/osiVD0KdjCU

The link works if you click on it

Btw, the answer about deaths fr Alpha compared to Delta for the under 50s is given at 16.59 min..

I am posting this again as a lot of people seem to want some clarity.
Follow the link to dr.Mobeen Syed's Youtube video in which he explains the data fr the UK.
You'll get most of the answers to your questions there, like the relation between infection, hospitalisation and death with Alpha and Delta variants compared..

political analyst

Tenger wrote: »

They do know that it is more transmissible. The unknown is whether it is more deadly.
As the majority of Delta cases have been among the younger parts of the population, who should be less susceptible to the illness.
So is the lower rate of hospitalisation and death a function of the virus or the agr group infected? That is the current debate.

But the scientists can answer that question by studying the effect that the Delta variant has had in its country of origin - India - can't they?!

Tenger

political analyst wrote: »

How can scientists not know by now whether or not the Delta variant is worse than either the original strain or the English variant?

They do know that it is more transmissible. The unknown is whether it is more deadly.
As the majority of Delta cases have been among the younger parts of the population, who should be less susceptible to the illness.
So is the lower rate of hospitalisation and death a function of the virus or the agr group infected? That is the current debate.

political analyst

How can scientists not know by now whether or not the Delta variant is worse than either the original strain or the English variant?

amandstu

Ballynally wrote: »

I am following dr. Mobeen.
The link was on his Youtube site in the description
https://youtu.be/osiVD0KdjCU

The link works if you click on it

Btw, the answer about deaths fr Alpha compared to Delta for the under 50s is given at 16.59 min..

Don"t have the time or energy to delve into that but as he says ,it early days in the progress of that aspect of Delta. I sure hope that is right in the longer term.

cheezums

Looking at NPHETs scenarios they all seem to hover around 0.3% IFR. The hard data we have on delta variants right now in the UK is less than half that, 0.13%.

Also NPHETs models do not seem to allow for increasing vaccination rate over the coming months.

Their models do not stand up to even a laymans scrutiny.

Ballynally

amandstu wrote: »

Link not working.(cross posted)

Tried the suffix.Didn't help.

I am following dr. Mobeen.
The link was on his Youtube site in the description
https://youtu.be/osiVD0KdjCU

The link works if you click on it

Btw, the answer about deaths fr Alpha compared to Delta for the under 50s is given at 16.59 min..

amandstu

Ballynally wrote: »

Sorry, no more numbers. I was making an exception.
Ive had some bad experiences w unqualified people who are not able to judge the relationship between data points in a multi factoral analysis, so i wont.
Go and dig and make up your own mind:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov...

Edit: that link doesnt seem to work.
It probably needs.co.uk after gov

Link not working.(cross posted)

Tried the suffix.Didn't help.

amandstu

brickster69 wrote: »

It's amazing really, it's like someone flicking a switch

https://twitter.com/petervanham/status/1410215458020593670

Some graphic! Really self explanatory .Like a horror movie.

Ballynally

amandstu wrote: »

And from the Alpha variant (in the same cohort)?

Sorry, no more numbers. I was making an exception.
Ive had some bad experiences w unqualified people who are not able to judge the relationship between data points in a multi factoral analysis, so i wont.
Go and dig and make up your own mind:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov...

Edit: that link doesnt seem to work.
It probably needs '.uk' after 'gov'

brickster69

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Hopefully, but my fear would be that declining alpha cases are masking the growth of delta.

From the sounds of things that's exactly what's happening. 20% of cases on the 21st, 50% as of yesterday.
Our data is all over the place and we're not doing enough sequencing anyway so it's very hard to get a clear picture of what's happening, but I suspect we're a couple of weeks behind Portugal in terms of incidence level.

It's amazing really, it's like someone flicking a switch

https://twitter.com/petervanham/status/1410215458020593670

Ballynally

Tenger wrote: »

Dont forget that Stephen Donnolly confirmed last night that there has been no "independent analysis" of the NPHET advice or predictions.

Yes, i am aware of that. That is ok by me IF NPHET will just give us the data they used to come to their conclusions.
If that is not forthcoming, TH's head should roll.
And/or Stephen Donnelly, MM.
This is what ALL the opposition parties and government party rebels should rally behind.
It is a simple proposal devoid of the complexities of vax passports etc.If they don't it tells us the state of politics in Ireland.
So far, i believe SF has been calling for that..

amandstu

Ballynally wrote: »

The vaccines have greater efficacy against the Delta variant compared to Alpha, if you look at both hospitalisations and deaths.
I said i wasnt going to produce/compare numbers but i will make an exception.
It is too beautiful to ignore:
The amount of deaths from the Delta variant in the under 50s in the UK up to june 24 is:
0 (yes, you read that right). Official UK figures.

And from the Alpha variant (in the same cohort)?

Man Vs ManUre

I blame Mumford and Sons for all this. They named their last album Delta. And their banjo player has recently left the band as he could not accept that they introduced Delta to the world.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I know, but they're using S-gene as a rough proxy for sequencing. And if 50% of our recent cases weren't alpha, then most were probably delta.

It's all rather inadequate. Hard to be sure of anything.
I wonder could we reach out to a country like Denmark for a bit of help with sequencing.

I would agree, delta has squeezed out just about every other variant in the UK. But what is telling is the volume of people in hospital is not following the case volume, whether that's a delta characteristic or due to the age cohorts getting infected is immaterial. Delta has accounted for >75% of cases in the UK for several weeks now. UK case numbers have gone from about 3k a day in May to 18k yesterday (factor of 6 increase) but numbers in hospital have only risen from about 900 to 1500 - not even doubled, admissions have increased slightly more, but this I interpret as people requiring shorter stays in hospital.

Cases on their own are not a valid metric any more.

Ballynally

The vaccines have greater efficacy against the Delta variant compared to Alpha, if you look at both hospitalisations and deaths.
I said i wasnt going to produce/compare numbers but i will make an exception.
It is too beautiful to ignore:
The amount of deaths from the Delta variant in the under 50s in the UK up to june 24 is:
0 (yes, you read that right). Official UK figures.

amandstu

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I've become aware that you might be thinking I'm talking about "my friends"
I waited my turn too. Despite having mild asthma as a teen. First dose on Monday.

What I think is happening is that GPs are giving out spare doses to anyone they know has any sort of chronic respiratory condition.
I wouldn't begrudge anyone who does this at this stage of the game. It's not as though you're pushing a diabetic granny aside to get your pfizer.

It is wrong for you to advocate deceitful queue jumping techniques -and for the mods here to allow it.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I know, but they're using S-gene as a rough proxy for sequencing. And if 50% of our recent cases weren't alpha, then most were probably delta.

It's all rather inadequate. Hard to be sure of anything.
I wonder could we reach out to a country like Denmark for a bit of help with sequencing.

And that in a nutshell is the issue, because 50% of our cases are pretty much confirmed Alpha, that means the other 50% is most probable Delta. No need to facts or data, just assume so?

We don't need help sequencing, despite all the criticism etc... we're actually sequencing a very high % of cases. The main issue is the delay from sampling to getting the sequencing done, I don't think it's down to laziness, could be more down to the process taking time etc...

Tenger

Ballynally wrote: »

The UK is way ahead in data analysis in terms of Covid19.
When they produce an analysis they also give you links to the actual data they used to come to their analysis so you can take a look and possibly come to a different conclusion or spot the caveats.
In Ireland we have experts presenting us with easy to read graphs with no substantial extra data or links for anyone to check.
They want to stop people actually looking at the data or have other institutions do an independent analysis.
What they are hoping for is a general endorcement by an EU body without getting into details. A form of virtue signalling.
Just..give..us..the..data

Dont forget that Stephen Donnolly confirmed last night that there has been no "independent analysis" of the NPHET advice or predictions.

Ballynally

The UK is way ahead in data analysis in terms of Covid19.
When they produce an analysis they also give you links to the actual data they used to come to their analysis so you can take a look and possibly come to a different conclusion or spot the caveats.
In Ireland we have experts presenting us with easy to read graphs with no substantial extra data or links for anyone to check.
They want to stop people actually looking at the data or have other institutions do an independent analysis.
What they are hoping for is a general endorcement by an EU body without getting into details. A form of virtue signalling.
Just..give..us..the..data