Dublin Bay South By-Election

Marcusm · 29-06-2021 10:35pm

jm08 wrote: »

They just wanted one of their own back in - legal family, Gonzaga, supreme court judge's grandson etc. etc. Someone with the same pedigree as Eoghan Murphy.

It shouldn't really matter how they address their parents (but it does).!

Mr Jm08, you underestimate the legal connections. Both grandparents were Supreme Court justices as were both parents! Both grandparents were also TDs albeit if different civil war parties!

Marcusm · 29-06-2021 10:37pm

athlone573 wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how transfer friendly Bacik is. Her strident feminist views and antics at TCD may put some people off and I'm not sure she is "working class" enough to get the SF / PBP vote.

Surely she is not in the slightest bit “working class” and never asserted that she was.

Marcusm · 29-06-2021 10:52pm

athlone573 wrote: »

What upset my TCD friends more was her (alleged) unethical behaviour while at TCDSU, but it's 30 years ago now.

Condoms, abortion information or voting for the wrong USI member. I know which of those has had long term effect on Irish society.

blackwhite · 29-06-2021 11:06pm

Marcusm wrote: »

Condoms, abortion information or voting for the wrong USI member. I know which of those has had long term effect on Irish society.

To be fair - an elected representative voting contrary to their mandate and breaching the rules of their elected position is a pretty big deal.

It’s effectively sticking two fingers up at democracy and saying “I know better than you plebs” - which is exactly the sort of negative image Labour have built for themselves.

In terms of the sentencing stuff raised earlier - it seems fairly clear she’s been advocating for different sentencing standards be applied for women when compared to men convicted of the same offences.

All things which have contributed to her consistent failure to be elected anywhere outside of the Seanad Trinity panel

AndrewJRenko · 29-06-2021 11:07pm

athlone573 wrote: »

Trust and credibility go a long way, ask Brian Lenihan.

Maybe you should tell your 'friends' to be a bit honest, and admit that it's nothing to do with trust and credibility, and everything to do with just not liking her and her politics and looking for excuses for a bit of a moan.

If the worst thing you could say about me was about how I voted for something at university, I'd be fairly happy that my reputation was intact.

AndrewJRenko · 29-06-2021 11:10pm

blackwhite wrote: »

In terms of the sentencing stuff raised earlier - it seems fairly clear she’s been advocating for different sentencing standards be applied for women when compared to men convicted of the same offences.

Again, where specifically did she advocate for this?

Marcusm · 29-06-2021 11:18pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Maybe you should tell your 'friends' to be a bit honest, and admit that it's nothing to do with trust and credibility, and everything to do with just not liking her and her politics and looking for excuses for a bit of a moan.

If the worst thing you could say about me was about how I voted for something at university, I'd be fairly happy that my reputation was intact.

The interesting thing pointing to the nepotistic nature of Irish politics is if you Google scandals involving TCD SU presidents that involving alleged exam irregularities involving Brian Lenhihan’s grandson probably stands higher than Bacik’s vote for a UCD SU person in preference to one of the TCD people.

blackwhite · 29-06-2021 11:21pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Again, where specifically did she advocate for this?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30362968.html

Alternatives to prison should be considered for women who commit minor offences, Senator Ivana Bacik claimed today……..
Alternatives should be sought for those who commit minor offences as many are mothers and the detention has a negative effect on family life.

Not many male offenders who can claim to be mothers - some should be more equal than others before the law according to Ivana

And then there’s the column she wrote herself
https://villagemagazine.ie/imprison-fewer-women/

In her own words, special circumstances that should be considered for women

AndrewJRenko · 29-06-2021 11:29pm

blackwhite wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30362968.html

Not many male offenders who can claim to be mothers - some should be more equal than others before the law according to Ivana

And then there’s the column she wrote herself
https://villagemagazine.ie/imprison-fewer-women/

In her own words, special circumstances that should be considered for women

Did you read her article? She's looking for access to open prison for women, something men have had for decades.

jm08 · 30-06-2021 12:41am

iffandonlyif wrote: »

Since the 1992 election, FG have run five candidates in DSE/DBS.

Frances Fitzgerald attended Sion Hill.
Colm Mac Eochaidh attended Colaiste Eoin.
Joe Doyle attended CBS Westland Row.
Lucinda Creighton attended her local state school in Mayo.

Only Eoghan Murphy attended a private school. Is it your belief that their lust to see 'one of their own' elected went dormant for twenty years before returning with a vengeance?!

Anyone coming from the legal profession/private schools, no matter the party, would be regarded as one of their own. E.g., Michael O'Leary (Labour), Michael McDowell etc.

Frances Fitzgerald lost her seat by the way as did Lucinda Creighton.

jm08 · 30-06-2021 1:01am

...Ghost... wrote: »

Does it matter? A TD was denied the opportunity to attend based on gender and gender alone.

I don't think Ivana was the actual organiser of that conference - just a guest speaker.

Not really. I think most people already know about it, but some people have a habit of requiring links for everything they don't agree with. I've already shown you that stuff has been deleted. You can make up your own mind on that one.

No, we ask for links as fact checks and to check out interpretation of what it said. I think its amazing that there is no trace on the internet of Mattie McGrath being blocked by Ivana from attending a conference.

She regularly attends schools and colleges around the country and I have yet to hear about one where she doesn't exclude the males. https://www.facebook.com/AlexCollDublin/videos/women-in-leadership-ivana-bacik/488204398048415/

She is invited to speak at schools (or she was invited to speak by AlexColl which happens to be a girls school). I'm sure she would be more than happy to go speak to the boys in Gonzaga and Michaels if asked.

She thought Noreen O'Sullivan was great LOL.

She thought she performed well under questioning for 2/3 hours.

Now, you find me one where it's not all females.

As pointed out, she needs to be invited to speak. Seemingly the likes of Blackrock College or St. Marys are not that interested in hearing talks on feminism.

It was on the Labour party website....but uh, oh, why is it gone now? Try the link for yourself.

Weird that the only place it was on seems to be the Labour Party website!

Cal4567 · 30-06-2021 7:40am

Bacik would appear to be another example of the modern urban metropolitan left, who focus on minority and identity politics issues while at the same time continuing to alienate existing working class communities. The middle classes in DBS see her as someone they can relate to, she sounds like them, and she may be the comfortable vehicle to row behind to give a bye election kicking to the sitting government, mainly over the housing issue.

This bye election is looking more and more like the typical UK version, which come up with shock results. Have their been any polls on 2nd preferences or is that too complicated?

Annasopra · 30-06-2021 8:28am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Maybe you should tell your 'friends' to be a bit honest, and admit that it's nothing to do with trust and credibility, and everything to do with just not liking her and her politics and looking for excuses for a bit of a moan.

If the worst thing you could say about me was about how I voted for something at university, I'd be fairly happy that my reputation was intact.

Haha. Its to be expected. Shes suddenly in contention to win so all the attacks come out.

Annasopra · 30-06-2021 8:33am

Cal4567 wrote: »

Bacik would appear to be another example of the modern urban metropolitan left, who focus on minority and identity politics issues while at the same time continuing to alienate existing working class communities. The middle classes in DBS see her as someone they can relate to, she sounds like them, and she may be the comfortable vehicle to row behind to give a bye election kicking to the sitting government, mainly over the housing issue.

This bye election is looking more and more like the typical UK version, which come up with shock results. Have their been any polls on 2nd preferences or is that too complicated?

Yes

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409594451127799811?s=19

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409595948578258950?s=19

athlone573 · 30-06-2021 8:54am

Annasopra wrote: »

Yes

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409594451127799811?s=19

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409595948578258950?s=19

A simplistic reading of that gives SF/Greens the youth vote, Bacik the middle aged and Geoghegan the mature populace. Anyone want to read into the transfers?

blackwhite · 30-06-2021 9:04am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Did you read her article? She's looking for access to open prison for women, something men have had for decades.

Yes I did - that's why I'm not taking one small part of her argument out of context and trying to use that to ignore the rest of the article, and to ignore all the other quotes too.

I'll repeat again, because you are determined to ignore anything that doesn't suit the narrative you're trying to push

Alternatives to prison should be considered for women who commit minor offences, Senator Ivana Bacik claimed today……..
Alternatives should be sought for those who commit minor offences as many are mothers and the detention has a negative effect on family life.

Alternatives should be considered for women, because prison might impact family life. It's a clear call for different sentencing considerations for women compared to men - but keep your head in the sand because you don't want anything at all negative about your chosen candidate

Yurt2 · 30-06-2021 9:06am

blackwhite wrote: »

Alternatives should be considered for women, because prison might impact family life

Because pops going to prison is great news for the family unit?

Call me crazy, but when a custodial sentencing is warranted, there should be as much consistency between male and female sentences for the same crimes.

blackwhite · 30-06-2021 9:09am

athlone573 wrote: »

A simplistic reading of that gives SF/Greens the youth vote, Bacik the middle aged and Geoghegan the mature populace. Anyone want to read into the transfers?

Nigh on impossible to draw many conclusions from the transfers, for Bacik or Geoghegan as we don't know what percentage of their share is from Bacik voters with Geoghegan 2, or Geoghegan voters with Bacik 2.
Given neither is likely to be eliminated until the last count then those transfers will never happen.

The only conclusion from the poll can be that, if the poll is accurate, none of candidates outside Bacik or Geoghegan will manage enough transfers to catch the two front runners.

AndrewJRenko · 30-06-2021 9:34am

blackwhite wrote: »

Yes I did - that's why I'm not taking one small part of her argument out of context and trying to use that to ignore the rest of the article, and to ignore all the other quotes too.

I'll repeat again, because you are determined to ignore anything that doesn't suit the narrative you're trying to push

Alternatives should be considered for women, because prison might impact family life. It's a clear call for different sentencing considerations for women compared to men - but keep your head in the sand because you don't want anything at all negative about your chosen candidate

You're putting 2 + 2 together to make 17.

She doesn't say anything about male sentencing in that article, good,bad,or indifferent. She calls for changes to female sentencing in their own right, not relative to males.

She specifically does not call for female sentencing to be different to male. She is silent on male sentencing in the article.

Stop imposing your assumptions.

KevRossi · 30-06-2021 9:37am

blackwhite wrote: »

The only conclusion from the poll can be that, if the poll is accurate, none of candidates outside Bacik or Geoghegan will manage enough transfers to catch the two front runners.

I think it's looking very much like Geoghegan will top the poll, Bacik next and the rest will be also rans. Next step is transfers. I think Bacik will do better than Geoghegan on this for various reasons.

But can she catch him?

What sort of a headstart do ye think does Geoghegan need to beat Bacik? The poll above gives him 27% to Bacik's 22%. I persoanlly don't think that's enough, I think he'd need to be 9 or 10 points ahead on the first count.

If people are going to put in a few preferences, then she has a very good chance, but if not, then it will help him.

Will also help Bacik if Byrne is the last to be eliminated as she'll transfer heavily to her.

It will be interesting. It's an insignificant by-election as it won't change the balance of power but it's fun to look at.

jm08 · 30-06-2021 9:47am

Yurt! wrote: »

Because pops going to prison is great news for the family unit?

Call me crazy, but when a custodial sentencing is warranted, there should be as much consistency between male and female sentences for the same crimes.

Well, id be all for pops to be dealt leniantly (and I'm pretty sure Ivana would as well) with if his crime is for shoplifting some baby's nappies rather than getting 3 months as happened to that Nigerian woman.

Sam Russell · 30-06-2021 9:55am

KevRossi wrote: »

I think it's looking very much like Geoghegan will top the poll, Bacik next and the rest will be also rans. Next step is transfers. I think Bacik will do better than Geoghegan on this for various reasons.

But can she catch him?

What sort of a headstart do ye think does Geoghegan need to beat Bacik? The poll above gives him 27% to Bacik's 22%. I persoanlly don't think that's enough, I think he'd need to be 9 or 10 points ahead on the first count.

If people are going to put in a few preferences, then she has a very good chance, but if not, then it will help him.

Will also help Bacik if Byrne is the last to be eliminated as she'll transfer heavily to her.

It will be interesting. It's an insignificant by-election as it won't change the balance of power but it's fun to look at.

Well, looking at the poll figures for 1st and 2nd preferences, and adding them we have:

J G - 42%; IB - 31% ; LB 19%; CB 36%.

Now the second preferences would suggest who is transfer friendly and who is not, and so one would assume that getting a No 2 is indicative of getting a No 3 or a No 4 as a voter marks down the card. Clearly Claire Byrne is very transfer friendly and Lynne Boylan is not at all transfer friendly.

So the final shakedown will be between JG, IB, and CB. Now as the count goes on, the Labour and Green candidates will improve their vote (because they are transfer friendly) and keep ahead of the others (assuming JG is topping the first preference vote).

Now, it all depends on how the transfers go as to which two candidates are in the final shout. It is likely that no candidate will reach the quota.

From that, I would place CB and JG as the last two, but the figures posted are not accurate enough, or the race to close, to call the result.

Yurt2 · 30-06-2021 9:58am

jm08 wrote: »

Well, id be all for pops to be dealt leniantly (and I'm pretty sure Ivana would as well) with if his crime is for shoplifting some baby's nappies rather than getting 3 months as happened to that Nigerian woman.

Something tells me it doesn't keep her awake at night.

AndrewJRenko · 30-06-2021 10:01am

Yurt! wrote: »

Something tells me it doesn't keep her awake at night.

Do you think rights for female prisoners keeps Mattie awake at night?

Yurt2 · 30-06-2021 10:02am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Do you think rights for female prisoners keeps Mattie awake at night?

Bit of a non-sequitur there.

KevRossi · 30-06-2021 10:13am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, looking at the poll figures for 1st and 2nd preferences, and adding them we have:

J G - 42%; IB - 31% ; LB 19%; CB 36%.

Now the second preferences would suggest who is transfer friendly and who is not, and so one would assume that getting a No 2 is indicative of getting a No 3 or a No 4 as a voter marks down the card. Clearly Claire Byrne is very transfer friendly and Lynne Boylan is not at all transfer friendly.

So the final shakedown will be between JG, IB, and CB. Now as the count goes on, the Labour and Green candidates will improve their vote (because they are transfer friendly) and keep ahead of the others (assuming JG is topping the first preference vote).

Now, it all depends on how the transfers go as to which two candidates are in the final shout. It is likely that no candidate will reach the quota.

From that, I would place CB and JG as the last two, but the figures posted are not accurate enough, or the race to close, to call the result.

That's not how it works. You can't just add up 100% of transfers to one candidate. Not even in a rough estimate.

You'd start eliminating the lower candidates first. Not sure about Conroy's votes, but SD/PBP/Ind etc. will almost all go left. But some of them won't transfer at all as a lot of people just tick '1' and that's it.

Then you start eliminating the others - the 'Big 5' of FG-Lab-GP-SF-FF.
I think Conroy will go first, (as FF are less transfer friendly of those who were eliminated), then Boylan. Not sure where Conroy's votes will go but should be evenly split.

Then Boylan goes (I'm pretty sure Byrne will be ahead of her, but I could be wrong), and she should transfer more to GP and Lab. But overall her votes won't transfer as much. I think she will have a lot of '1' only votes.

That leaves Byrne in 3rd place as she will be suffering from not having first preferences. Then I think she will transfer more heavily to Bacik for a number of reasons. Namely there's an older demographic in DBS who traditionally will vote alternatively to the big parties. Bacik is a progressive woman which is attractive to some as well. As I said, nothing will change in the Dail after this election so people can afford to vote for who they want.

That's why I think if Bacik can be within 8 points of Geoghegan after first preferences are counted, then she has a really good shot at it.

AndrewJRenko · 30-06-2021 10:26am

KevRossi wrote: »

That's not how it works. You can't just add up 100% of transfers to one candidate. Not even in a rough estimate.

You'd start eliminating the lower candidates first. Not sure about Conroy's votes, but SD/PBP/Ind etc. will almost all go left. But some of them won't transfer at all as a lot of people just tick '1' and that's it.

Then you start eliminating the others - the 'Big 5' of FG-Lab-GP-SF-FF.
I think Conroy will go first, (as FF are less transfer friendly of those who were eliminated), then Boylan. Not sure where Conroy's votes will go but should be evenly split.

Then Boylan goes (I'm pretty sure Byrne will be ahead of her, but I could be wrong), and she should transfer more to GP and Lab. But overall her votes won't transfer as much. I think she will have a lot of '1' only votes.

That leaves Byrne in 3rd place as she will be suffering from not having first preferences. Then I think she will transfer more heavily to Bacik for a number of reasons. Namely there's an older demographic in DBS who traditionally will vote alternatively to the big parties. Bacik is a progressive woman which is attractive to some as well. As I said, nothing will change in the Dail after this election so people can afford to vote for who they want.

That's why I think if Bacik can be within 8 points of Geoghegan after first preferences are counted, then she has a really good shot at it.

It's likely to be a very interesting count, will be an interesting one to watch.

...Ghost... · 30-06-2021 10:27am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Did you read her article? She's looking for access to open prison for women, something men have had for decades.

Looks like it was already covered by another poster, but the article also says

The services will develop a range of options to provide an effective alternative to custody and improved outcomes, for women; and enhanced integration for women offenders in the community.

She complained about there being no open prisons for women, but advocates for no prison at all.

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

You're putting 2 + 2 together to make 17.

She doesn't say anything about male sentencing in that article, good,bad,or indifferent. She calls for changes to female sentencing in their own right, not relative to males.

She specifically does not call for female sentencing to be different to male. She is silent on male sentencing in the article.

Stop imposing your assumptions.

AJR, come on now. You're really clutching at straws now. She stays silent on male sentencing because she doesn't care about male sentencing. If she did care, she would be advocating for alternatives men, or at the very least, parents.

You are playing with words by saying she is silent on mens sentencing. By calling for non-custodial sentencing for women, she is supporting gender sentencing disparity which already exists and is pushing for more disparity in favour of women.

Do you support Ivanas views for non-custodial sentences for women?

El Tarangu · 30-06-2021 10:59am

...Ghost... wrote: »

AJR, come on now. You're really clutching at straws now. She stays silent on male sentencing because she doesn't care about male sentencing. If she did care, she would be advocating for alternatives men, or at the very least, parents.

The conference was about imprisoned women, it would be a bit odd if Bacik started holding forth on a different topic - I think it might be yourself who is clutching at straws at this stage.

Sierra Oscar · 30-06-2021 11:02am

Bacik is going to win this. The controversy over re-opening and the growing sense of incompetence surrounding the Government's handling of it has sunk Geoghegan. People are going to give the Government a bit of a kicking. Game over imho.

Sinn Féin vote is also underestimated in that poll and would be at odds with other private polling.

Dublin Bay South By-Election

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