Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 01:43PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

if SF get in , it doesnt matter what they fail to deliver as they wont relinquish power once they get in

Venezuela here we come

Well you only have to look at what has happened with FF and FG they broke promises to their voting base and are being decimated (not to mentions fecking up the countries finances). I think we may see an extreme right leaning party coming into play over the next decade. The left is split and fragmented with each having a differing main headline agenda from Greens looking after the planet to SF wanting a United Ireland and then the rest squabbling about how the poor get nothing (which is no where near the truth). The landscape of Irish politics is entering a new phase and I think the sh1t will hit the fan when SF realise that you cannot beat the builders up by trying to put manners on them with penalties and taxes and then during the same conversation they will be asking them to build en-mass a sh1t load of houses. I guess they can try knee capping or kidnapping its worked for them in the past.

29-06-2021 01:48PM

Dublin south has a sizeable working class population, polling shows SF well behind the leading candidates. That must surprise some supporters of their policies in relation to housing.

hometruths · 29-06-2021 01:51PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Has anyone looking at SF being the savior actually drilled into their numbers , their promises are built on sand. When they get in it will be yet another disaster

Which of their housing promises are built on sand?

MacronvFrugals · 29-06-2021 02:03PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

if SF get in , it doesnt matter what they fail to deliver as they wont relinquish power once they get in

Venezuela here we come

Is that you Eoghan Harris?

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 02:04PM

schmittel wrote: »

Which of their housing promises are built on sand?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-is-sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-housing-policy-credible-1.4163859

cnocbui · 29-06-2021 02:07PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I predicted a few months back that Limerick house prices would rise by 20% in 2021 , up 9% so far this year according to reports in last few days , only Drogheda up more

the market is absolutely roasting

Suits me just fine - music to my ears.

tigger123 · 29-06-2021 02:13PM

Dav010 wrote: »

Dublin south has a sizeable working class population, polling shows SF well behind the leading candidates. That must surprise some supporters of their policies in relation to housing.

Are you referring to the byelection?

Cyrus · 29-06-2021 02:24PM

Dav010 wrote: »

Dublin south has a sizeable working class population, polling shows SF well behind the leading candidates. That must surprise some supporters of their policies in relation to housing.

that is a surprise, doesnt reflect well to be that far behind a labour candidate, especially bacik.

MacronvFrugals · 29-06-2021 02:25PM

Cyrus wrote: »

that is a surprise, doesnt reflect well to be that far behind a labour candidate, especially bacik.

David McWiliams made this point on his latest podcast, the most affluent people in Dublin vote Labour and Green, look at how many Labour/Green TDs DBS has returned

Amadan Dubh · 29-06-2021 02:25PM

Dav010 wrote: »

Dublin south has a sizeable working class population, polling shows SF well behind the leading candidates. That must surprise some supporters of their policies in relation to housing.

I was a bit surprised particularly given her odds with the bookies shortening the past few weeks. But I don't put any faith in these polls. I don't think I've even met someone ever who was polled. Personally, I'm still registered in the constituency and will be voting but almost certainly not for the FF and FG candidates, they won't get a preference even. The rest of the candidates are so uninspiring as well it is so easy to just be passive in the whole thing, but housing is too important so I'll muster the effort to travel up to vote.

hometruths · 29-06-2021 02:49PM

fliball123 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-is-sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-housing-policy-credible-1.4163859

Ok so the first credibility issue is:

Sinn Féin housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin told The Irish Times that included in the 100,000 figure are 50,000 social homes, which, he says, are already committed to and budgeted for under the National Development Plan. So half of the headline figure is to be achieved before the €6.5 billion budget is touched

Fair enough, that's sharp practice to massage a headline figure. But par for the course in politics. And it's not a claim built on sand, it's a claim built on the National Development Plan.

However, the implication is still that around €6.5 billion will pay for 50,000 new homes.

One of their models is the O'Cualann development, they are claiming they will deliver 30,000 houses this way:

It works because a site is provided by the state, almost free of cost. That site is often also serviced, meaning connected to utilities, at no cost to the builder (but there is an exchequer cost). Development levies are also waived. The remainder of the development cost is provided by loans, redeemed when the homes are sold.

The net result on O’Culann land is that three-bedroom homes retail for around €220,000. Sinn Féin has budgeted a cost to the exchequer for the waived fees, the site and the services of €50,000 per unit.

SFs proposals are based on the exchequer cost not the total cost. You might argue this is somehow misleading, but the cost to the taxpayer is the most important cost in a manifesto.

They might be overly optimistic but given that the people who developed the O'Cualaan properties say it can be scaled up to provide 30k units, it is false to say the claims are built on sand.

The remaining 20,000 houses they say they will deliver for cost of 234,000 each. Is this claim built on sand?

The party has sourced the figure from a parliamentary question answered last year on the average cost of building one, two, three and four bedroom local authority new build units. According to the reply, the average all-in cost submitted by local authorities over the 12 months to April 2019 of a three bed, including VAT and non-construction elements, is €234,571.

They're costing using the Dept of Housing figures. It's worth noting that the construction costs of a 3 bed were actually €184,685

So that claim is not built on sand either. It's "based on the analysis of returned data from tendered social housing schemes over an extended period"

I totally agree it is wise to have a healthy skepticism concerning the costings of political parties' election promises, but to simply dismiss them as utter fantasies is completely misguided, and in many cases, completely disingenuous.

hometruths · 29-06-2021 02:57PM

Villa05 wrote: »

In the primary case the rent is roughly 20% below the market. We suspect this is the reason.

Agreed on owners rights but for all our progress citizens are forced to break the law to survive. Are we that much different from when crimes of nesecity were punished with a one way ticket to Australia

In this case do you think landlord would be happy for them to remain if they were paying market rent? And would tenants be willing/able to pay market rent?

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 03:17PM

schmittel wrote: »

Ok so the first credibility issue is:

Fair enough, that's sharp practice to massage a headline figure. But par for the course in politics. And it's not a claim built on sand, it's a claim built on the National Development Plan.

One of their models is the O'Cualann development, they are claiming they will deliver 30,000 houses this way:

SFs proposals are based on the exchequer cost not the total cost. You might argue this is somehow misleading, but the cost to the taxpayer is the most important cost in a manifesto.

They might be overly optimistic but given that the people who developed the O'Cualaan properties say it can be scaled up to provide 30k units, it is false to say the claims are built on sand.

The remaining 20,000 houses they say they will deliver for cost of 234,000 each. Is this claim built on sand?

They're costing using the Dept of Housing figures. It's worth noting that the construction costs of a 3 bed were actually €184,685

So that claim is not built on sand either. It's "based on the analysis of returned data from tendered social housing schemes over an extended period"

I totally agree it is wise to have a healthy skepticism concerning the costings of political parties' election promises, but to simply dismiss them as utter fantasies is completely misguided, and in many cases, completely disingenuous.

Look if they do even 50% of what they are promising without phucking over the income tax payer they will have done well in my book. I just dont see there being a change there is absolutely zero accountability and zero punishment when a party get into power shout from the rafters what they will do and then they do nothing and walk away with a nice pension and a handy number making speeches around the different circuits or back into the party on the back bench twiddling and picking up more money from the tax payer.. Until that changes nothing will. I wont be voting in the next election as the deck is stacked in favor of politicians interests and not what they promise. If SF manage 50% of what they promise I will vote for them in the following one. Your statement that we should be skeptical is an understatement. No government in the last 20/25 year has put the people ahead of their own wants , needs and other vested interests. Will SF be any different. A look back at their own history would suggest no and you can also look to the north where they are in power to see this as well. The below links are a small snapshot and not one have to do with any dealing with the IRA.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/spotlight/arid-40077536.html

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/alban-maginness/another-scandal-for-sinn-fein-and-this-one-cant-just-be-disappeared-39703865.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/old-question-of-who-pulls-the-strings-comes-back-to-haunt-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.4163060

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-pay-scandal-spoils-new-leaders-big-day-36512228.html

https://extra.ie/2020/12/07/news/politics/taoiseach-takes-aim-sinn-fein-intimidation

https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-td-urged-to-come-clean-over-e50000-use-of-dail-printer-cartridges-367908-Feb2012/

https://www.portadowntimes.co.uk/news/politics/sinn-fein-official-lurgan-caught-support-fund-scandal-3019959

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/09/07/how-sinn-fein-colluded-with-the-dup-to-keep-rhi-crisis-secret-from-executive-colleagues/

wassie · 29-06-2021 03:20PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

the market is absolutely roasting

cnocbui wrote: »

Suits me just fine - music to my ears.

The flip side of the 'affordability' coin.

hometruths · 29-06-2021 03:22PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Look if they do even 50% of what they are promising without phucking over the income tax payer they will have done well in my book. I just dont see there being a change there is absolutely zero accountability and zero punishment when a party get into power shout from the rafters what they will do and then they do nothing and walk away with a nice pension and a handy number making speeches around the different circuits or back into the party on the back bench twiddling and picking up more money from the tax payer.. Until that changes nothing will. I wont be voting in the next election as the deck is stacked in favor of politicians interests and not what they promise. If SF manage 50% of what they promise I will vote for them in the following one. Your statement that we should be skeptical is an understatement. No government in the last 20/25 year has put the people ahead of their own wants , needs and other vested interests. Will SF be any different. A look back at their own history would suggest no and you can also look to the north where they are in power to see this as well. The below links are a small snapshot and not one have to do with any dealing with the IRA.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/spotlight/arid-40077536.html

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/alban-maginness/another-scandal-for-sinn-fein-and-this-one-cant-just-be-disappeared-39703865.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/old-question-of-who-pulls-the-strings-comes-back-to-haunt-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.4163060

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-pay-scandal-spoils-new-leaders-big-day-36512228.html

https://extra.ie/2020/12/07/news/politics/taoiseach-takes-aim-sinn-fein-intimidation

https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-td-urged-to-come-clean-over-e50000-use-of-dail-printer-cartridges-367908-Feb2012/

https://www.portadowntimes.co.uk/news/politics/sinn-fein-official-lurgan-caught-support-fund-scandal-3019959

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/09/07/how-sinn-fein-colluded-with-the-dup-to-keep-rhi-crisis-secret-from-executive-colleagues/

All of the above has nothing to do with the fact that it is utter nonsense to claim their housing promises are built on sand.

I completely understand why people would not vote for SF, but the idea that the Aengus Ó Snodaigh's use of ink cartridges calls SF's housing costings into question is absurd.

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 03:29PM

schmittel wrote: »

All of the above has nothing to do with the fact that it is utter nonsense to claim their housing promises are built on sand.

I completely understand why people would not vote for SF, but the idea that the Aengus Ó Snodaigh's use of ink cartridges calls SF's housing costings into question is absurd.

The above links go against their credibility I also did not put any of the thousands of links between them and the IRA up. Like I say they will most likely get into power and they are getting in on their housing policy I guess we will just have to wait and see who is right in 6/7/8 years time and just so we are on the same page this is one argument I will be very very happy to lose

Villa05 · 29-06-2021 03:30PM

schmittel wrote:

In this case do you think landlord would be happy for them to remain if they were paying market rent? And would tenants be willing/able to pay market rent?

Bridge too far, many rentals are not advertised anymore hence there plea to try and find something outside the normal channels

hometruths · 29-06-2021 03:34PM

fliball123 wrote: »

The above links go against their credibility I also did not put any of the thousands of links between them and the IRA up. Like I say they will most likely get into power and they are getting in on their housing policy I guess we will just have to wait and see who is right in 6/7/8 years time and just so we are on the same page this is one argument I will be very very happy to lose

The Sinn Fein IRA thread is in Current Affairs.

We don't need to wait 6/7/8 years to see who is right or wrong regarding your claim their housing policies are built on sand. The IT article you linked proves that right now.

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 03:39PM

schmittel wrote: »

The Sinn Fein IRA thread is in Current Affairs.

We don't need to wait 6/7/8 years to see who is right or wrong regarding your claim their housing policies are built on sand. The IT article you linked proves that right now.

Sorry we do have to wait as Sinn Fein up until now have build zero houses lets see how they do when they get in.

hometruths · 29-06-2021 03:48PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry we do have to wait as Sinn Fein up until now have build zero houses lets see how they do when they get in.

You claimed the promises were built on sand and then linked to an IT article in which to back up that claim.

That article states exactly how their housing promises have been costed - on houses that have already been built.

Your claim was wrong. We can see that right now. Very clearly.

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 04:02PM

schmittel wrote: »

You claimed the promises were built on sand and then linked to an IT article in which to back up that claim.

That article states exactly how their housing promises have been costed - on houses that have already been built.

Your claim was wrong. We can see that right now. Very clearly.

And I have given you links that would point to them being underhanded when it comes to their recent history when it comes to playing politics and without even mentioning the IRA. I simply dont trust them same with all big parties in the country to do what they say. How many other promises over the last 2 decades have been costed by various parties before they got into power only to see those promises disappear. Its not just SF its all political parties. The figures they are using seem very very ambitious getting rents down to 700 to 900 a month and building for 220/230k a unit all on the riptide of increasing building labour and material costs.

Look I am not saying dont vote Sinn Fein or FF or FG I have stated I wont be voting as they are all as bad as each other and until Sinn Fein get in and start building there is no scores on the board to prove which one of us is right. Like I said If they get in and get 50% of what they say done without phucking over the tax payer I will be voting for them in the following election. I have no agenda on this only hoping they are true to their word.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-outlines-plan-build-22108207

The other thing that people looking at the Sinn Fein juggernaut is that they will need allies what will these allies want in return in order for Sinn Fein to take power. Look north and see how that is working out for the lads up there.

hometruths · 29-06-2021 04:09PM

fliball123 wrote: »

And I have given you links that would point to them being underhanded when it comes to their recent history when it comes to playing politics and without even mentioning the IRA. I simply dont trust them same with all big parties in the country to do what they say. How many other promises over the last 2 decades have been costed by various parties before they got into power only to see those promises disappear. Its not just SF its all political parties. The figures they are using seem very very ambitious getting rents down to 700 to 900 a month and building for 220/230k a unit all on the riptide of increasing building labour and material costs.

Look I am not saying dont vote Sinn Fein or FF or FG I have stated I wont be voting as they are all as bad as each other and until Sinn Fein get in and start building there is no scores on the board to prove which one of us is right. Like I said If they get in and get 50% of what they say done without phucking over the tax payer I will be voting for them in the following election. I have no agenda on this only hoping they are true to their word.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-outlines-plan-build-22108207

The other thing that people looking at the Sinn Fein juggernaut is that they will need allies what will these allies want in return in order for Sinn Fein to take power. Look north and see how that is working out for the lads up there.

I actually agree with most of this. But that is all very different to what you asked earlier:

fliball123 wrote: »

Has anyone looking at SF being the savior actually drilled into their numbers , their promises are built on sand.

I have looked at the numbers on their housing policies, and in terms of credibility they are no better or worse than any other party.

If you had actually drilled into the numbers, you would realize that to claim they are built on sand is total nonsense.

In fact, you don’t even need to drill into the numbers, just read the IT article you linked.

Yurt2 · 29-06-2021 04:15PM

schmittel wrote: »

I actually agree with most of this. But that is all very different to what you asked earlier:

I have looked at the numbers on their housing policies, and in terms of credibility they are no better or worse than any other party.

If you had actually drilled into the numbers, you would realize that to claim they are built on sand is total nonsense.

In fact, you don’t even need to drill into the numbers, just read the IT article you linked.

The ESRI and IMF of all people came out and basically told the government to follow the gameplan SF laid out in their manifesto (that is, go to the markets taking advantage of all-time- low interest rates to build affordable and social housing at scale).

The big two parties went full Chicken Little about the sky falling and economic madness during electioneering in response. They've gone a great deal quieter since...

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 04:19PM

schmittel wrote: »

I actually agree with most of this. But that is all very different to what you asked earlier:

I have looked at the numbers on their housing policies, and in terms of credibility they are no better or worse than any other party.

If you had actually drilled into the numbers, you would realize that to claim they are built on sand is total nonsense.

In fact, you don’t even need to drill into the numbers, just read the IT article you linked.

I was trying to connect the dots as in other parties have point blank fed the electorate a load of waffle to get in and then done none of what it has promised. I have also put up a lot of links showing SF are not whiter than white when it comes to playing politics. The link I put up is one that they aspiring to do. Its like me saying I am going to jump off a 10 story building and try my best to land on my feet and not hurt myself. Doesn't mean when I jump that this will actually happen. What will they have to renage on in order to get power they wont get enough votes to get in by themselves. Have they factored in increasing costs? I would look again at the last 2 paragraphs as the question of the logistics of what they are aiming for is questioned can this happen in the real world and the last line is where we will probably end up.

Is it possible? In the words of one property developer (who, it must be conceded, is far from a Sinn Féin voter): “It’s possible, but it’s highly f***in’ improbable.”

Look we are going back and forward. I hope you win this argument to be honest.

fergus1001 · 29-06-2021 04:53PM

any chance we can leave the "shinners will take your land in your sleep" talk out of this

once the fund money moves onto the next craze there will be a correction, or there will be a blip in pricing spooking funds to sell off stock

fliball123 · 29-06-2021 05:18PM

fergus1001 wrote: »

any chance we can leave the "shinners will take your land in your sleep" talk out of this

once the fund money moves onto the next craze there will be a correction, or there will be a blip in pricing spooking funds to sell off stock

Well I think they need to be included as they are the golden ticket for people looking to buy houses a lot cheaper than the current prices so they cant be excluded from talk about the Irish property market

Amadan Dubh · 29-06-2021 06:12PM

One thing that I will be looking forward to is the panic selling from whinging "SF IRA hurr durr" baby boomers should it seem that SF are due to get in to government. Probably more likely to get houses on the market than SF's policies!

hometruths · 29-06-2021 06:33PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

One thing that I will be looking forward to is the panic selling from whinging "SF IRA hurr durr" baby boomers should it seem that SF are due to get in to government. Probably more likely to get houses on the market than SF's policies!

In all seriousness, that's exactly what I think will happen

hometruths · 29-06-2021 06:46PM

Interesting investment opportunity in Finglas.

54 apartments for 13.85m

Vast majority are 2 bed. So that would make average price just over 256k.

Certainly no discount for buying in bulk. 256k would be the highest price for a 2 bed in Finglas.

In fact a presumably identical apartment is currently on the open market for 235k

I wonder how many of these will end up on long term leases to the council?

PropBuyer101 · 29-06-2021 06:53PM

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting investment opportunity in Finglas.

54 apartments for 13.85m

Vast majority are 2 bed. So that would make average price just over 256k.

Certainly no discount for buying in bulk. 256k would be the highest price for a 2 bed in Finglas.

In fact a presumably identical apartment is currently on the open market for 235k

I wonder how many of these will end up on long term leases to the council?

nice. i'll just use the 14million i saved and buy this.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Comments

Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting