Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

cnocbui wrote: »

Housing provided by taxpayers should never be sold other than on the open market. Selling it to occupants at a huge discount is not on, in my view.

This idea that home ownership as a basic right is equally wrong.

Fair enough we just keep taking out long term leases instead and then deal with the problem of the increase number of renters come at retirement age.... This is why I said there needs to be an open discussion on housing and as a society what do we think is fair and equitable to all.

And just to be clear I am not taking about free houses for everyone... I'm talking about providing options for people that they will pay for. Just because someone is on a low income doesn't mean that home ownership should be out of reach. It may not be a big house in a posh area but a basic house elsewhere... The alternative is that we just spend money on HAP and never address the issue which in turn compounds the pressure on housing.

Timing belt

Sheeps wrote: »

There's a lot of voices out there shouting about issues about housing who are continuously given space in the media on matters of housing who really shouldn't. Rory Hearne is one of those people. Can anyone tell me what he means when he says “We could be at the point where the Government needs to do something like freezing house prices - I think we’re at that point". Once you're talking about freezing house prices I think it's fair to say that you've pretty much lost all credibility as a voice in housing.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/housing-market-crash-inevitable-due-to-utterly-unsustainable-prices-rory-hearne-1217278

What a great Idea? Introduce a freeze on house prices and watch the level of building drop off a cliff as people sit on land until it becomes more profitable to build in the future.

Yurt2

Sheeps wrote: »

There's a lot of voices out there shouting about issues about housing who are continuously given space in the media on matters of housing who really shouldn't. Rory Hearne is one of those people. Can anyone tell me what he means when he says “We could be at the point where the Government needs to do something like freezing house prices - I think we’re at that point". Once you're talking about freezing house prices I think it's fair to say that you've pretty much lost all credibility as a voice in housing.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/housing-market-crash-inevitable-due-to-utterly-unsustainable-prices-rory-hearne-1217278

Singapore essentially caps the price of new developments and has done for many decades, for both social and economic stability reasons. Do the Singaporeans have credibility?

I'm not making an argument for or against in this post - but don't just slate a housing expert or an idea because it isn't something you've let in to your headspace before.

Hubertj

Sheeps wrote: »

There's a lot of voices out there shouting about issues about housing who are continuously given space in the media on matters of housing who really shouldn't. Rory Hearne is one of those people. Can anyone tell me what he means when he says “We could be at the point where the Government needs to do something like freezing house prices - I think we’re at that point". Once you're talking about freezing house prices I think it's fair to say that you've pretty much lost all credibility as a voice in housing.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/housing-market-crash-inevitable-due-to-utterly-unsustainable-prices-rory-hearne-1217278

Hearne is a Trotskyite. People can draw their own conclusions.

Amadan Dubh

Sheeps wrote: »

There's a lot of voices out there shouting about issues about housing who are continuously given space in the media on matters of housing who really shouldn't. Rory Hearne is one of those people. Can anyone tell me what he means when he says “We could be at the point where the Government needs to do something like freezing house prices - I think we’re at that point". Once you're talking about freezing house prices I think it's fair to say that you've pretty much lost all credibility as a voice in housing.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/housing-market-crash-inevitable-due-to-utterly-unsustainable-prices-rory-hearne-1217278

I'm not defending or criticizing his claims but house prices and rents not dropping from their current levels over the coming years will lead to these types of calls being made into actual policies and laws. Unless it is acknowledged that there is a problem which requires significant increases to supply as well as big drops in rents and house prices, buckle up for some wacky and populist policies and laws being brought in.

Sheeps

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I'm not defending or criticizing his claims but house prices and rents not dropping from their current levels over the coming years will lead to these types of calls being made into actual policies and laws. Unless it is acknowledged that there is a problem which requires significant increases to supply as well as big drops in rents and house prices, buckle up for some wacky and populist policies and laws being brought in.

The problem is the same guy believes supply isn't a solution to stop rising house prices... I think you're right which is why when the likes of Sinn Féin get into power (who listen to people like Hearne) I think we're going to see the housing market completely eradicated.

Marius34

Yurt! wrote: »

Singapore essentially caps the price of new developments and has done for many decades, for both social and economic stability reasons. Do the Singaporeans have credibility?

I'm not making an argument for or against in this post - but don't just slate a housing expert or an idea because it isn't something you've let in to your headspace before.

Private or public? There is difference between subsidiesed public and private homes.

Amadan Dubh

Sheeps wrote: »

The problem is the same guy believes supply isn't a solution to stop rising house prices... I think you're right which is why when the likes of Sinn Féin get into power (who listen to people like Hearne) I think we're going to see the housing market completely eradicated.

I wanted to find another example of something that is hairbrained and won't fix the problem so Googled People Before Profit (I assume it is reasonable to think if SF are in power it could be with PBP) and this is one of their housing policies;

End corporatisation of housing system – bring the dwellings owned by corporate landlords into public ownership – revoke all legislation that allows vulture funds, REITs, build to rent corporate landlords and other special purpose vehicles to operate in the Irish housing market.

This is no longer just loopy leftie opposition stuff but is gaining mainstream popularity and accompanying credibility. This party could be in a SF coalition in 4 years.

Yurt2

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I'm not defending or criticizing his claims but house prices and rents not dropping from their current levels over the coming years will lead to these types of calls being made into actual policies and laws. Unless it is acknowledged that there is a problem which requires significant increases to supply as well as big drops in rents and house prices, buckle up for some wacky and populist policies and laws being brought in.

This problem is not going away. We should shy away from bad policy that generates bad unintended outcomes obviously, but doing nothing and dismissing any and every intervention as a socialist plot isn't helping.

e're in a catch 22 where the current model of housing provision is severely broken for (mainly young) people. Yet any proposed interventions, even if they have proven their worth in other countries are reflexively derided as populist.

Case in point: A poster a few posts up said that the right to housing ownership is wrong. Precisely zero parties or contributors to this issue have called for a right to home ownership. As soon as something gets tabled to ameliorate the problem, there is a small but significant cohort of people that start throwing tantrums as they are deathly afraid of their perceived advantages in the market being curtailed, and they will distort and bluff about proposals until there's no point in having a level honest conversation any more. Which unfortunately, it appears is what they want.

Yurt2

Marius34 wrote: »

Private or public? There is difference between subsidiesed public and private homes.

HDB system. It's a hybrid system. Owners enjoy property rights (with clawbacks if sold after a certain period of time) but the agency developing is government-owned.

Singapore is one country that has gotten housing right. It would be derided from on high as a socialist conspiracy to steal your granny's farmhouse or something if you tried to introduce it here, but the country's prosperity and stability is built on their approach to housing provision.

Marius34

Yurt! wrote: »

HDB system. It's a hybrid system.

HDB is public housing.

javaboy

Villa05 wrote: »

Bubble growth period, don't forget investment funds/gov will outbid FTB in high demand areas, pushing them further out. They in turn will drive up prices beyond what that local economy can afford

Again it's only a bubble if it pops. I haven't seen anyone explain where the pop is coming from and why it would be sudden?
We're already being told that funds/gov are outbidding FTBs and yet the stats say FTBs drawdowns are going ahead in huge numbers:
https://www.thejournal.ie/almost-10000-mortgages-worth-2-1-million-drawn-down-q1-2021-5423302-Apr2021/
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/first-time-buyers-now-account-for-over-half-of-mortgage-approvals-1.4519942

Supply will go where the money is. The past 5 years was commercial and hotels. There is most likely an oversupply in this sector now

I don't see the relevance. We're miles off oversupply in residential housing. Not even the optimistic predictions say we're going to meet demand any time soon. The commercial sector has entirely different dynamics not to mention the impact of COVID.

Villa05 wrote: »

New entrants to the labour market are on lower terms to there peers when they started for over a decade, pay much more for their housing and are much older by the time they can afford there own home.

Is the bolded part true outside of the public sector? Genuine question as it's not been my experience in the private sector. Not by a long shot.

Yurt2

Marius34 wrote: »

HDB is public housing.

Owners enjoy property rights Marius. Don't even bother trying to get smart on this one, I've lived in Singapore and an ex-girlfriend was a HDB owner - I've read her property deeds.

mcsean2163

Sad to see propqueries banned. The amount of building around Dublin at the moment is amazing. New apartment blocks all over the place.

Children's hospital/ intel will both soon be finished freeing up construction staff.

Lots of people in our area are returning to their home countries after covid19. The next census will be very interesting. Birth rate dropping etc.

I'm not convinced that once the government exits the market via Hap etc there won't be issues and I expect that might begin to appear in Q4.

It depends on how much more fuel government can throw on the fire and the level of inflation in the pipeline...

Marius34

Yurt! wrote: »

Owners enjoy property rights Marius. Don't even bother trying to get smart on this one, I've lived in Singapore and an ex-girlfriend was a HDB owner.

I have nothing against Singapore model at all. But HDB is subsidiesed Public housing.

Yurt2

Marius34 wrote: »

I have nothing against Singapore model at all. But HDB is subsidiesed Public housing.

I know exactly what HDB is. I lived in one let from the property owner.
. Which he had bought in the 80s, that was developed by the HDB corportation.

Timing belt

Yurt! wrote: »

Owners enjoy property rights Marius. Don't even bother trying to get smart on this one, I've lived in Singapore and an ex-girlfriend was a HDB owner - I've read her property deeds.

Singapore also control immigration... If you loose your job you loose your housing rights unless you are a from Singapore. Add on top of that a large % of people daily migrating from neighboring countries to work makes Singapore a unique case.

Yurt2

Timing belt wrote: »

Singapore also control immigration... If you loose your job you loose your housing rights unless you are a from Singapore. Add on top of that a large % of people daily migrating from neighboring countries to work makes Singapore a unique case.

Can't be done. Singapore unique.


Austria then? Can't be done, Austrians speak German.


Denmark? Lego.

Marius34

Yurt! wrote: »

I know exactly what HDB is. I lived in one let from the property owner.
. Which he had bought in the 80s, that was developed by the HDB corportation.

That makes no difference, its still Public housing.

timmyntc

Marius34 wrote: »

That makes no difference, its still Public housing.

Is it?

If the state is a builder and seller of property - is it still "public housing" even if its bought from the state like from any other seller?

Marius34

timmyntc wrote: »

Is it?

If the state is a builder and seller of property - is it still "public housing" even if its bought from the state like from any other seller?

Depends on the case. But I'm talking specifically about Singapores HDB housing.

Yurt2

Marius34 wrote: »

That makes no difference, its still Public housing.

That is the most simplistic hot take about probably the best and most thoughtful housing provision system in the world. Perhaps coincidentally, and apart from being a category error on your part, it serves your narrow do nuthin' point of view.

Timing belt

Yurt! wrote: »

Can't be done. Singapore unique.


Austria then? Can't be done, Austrians speak German.


Denmark? Lego.

how you jumped to Lego I don't know...Where did I say it can't be done????

All I said is Singapore is unique.

Yurt2

Timing belt wrote: »

how you jumped to Lego I don't know...Where did I say it can't be done????

All I said is Singapore is unique.

Fair enough. A HDB type provision of housing is completely achievable in Ireland. Indeed, many of the housing agencies affordable housing schemes (sold slightly over construction cost) can be readily compared to the HDB model and include very similar clawback provisions for 10 years or so to prevent house flipping. It can be scaled up. These are not something for nothing developments, and can put a major dent in the affordability crisis.


There is of course, hostility to them. Poorly articulated and even the people who are hostile to them can't really explain why.

Marius34

Yurt! wrote: »

That is the most simplistic hot take about probably the best and most thoughtful housing provision system in the world. Perhaps coincidentally, and apart from being a category error on your part, it serves your narrow do nuthin' point of view.

Singapore is unique, with probably one of the most sucefull public housing implementation. I have mentioned this in my very old posts.

Yurt2

Marius34 wrote: »

Singapore is unique, with probably one of the most sucefull public housing implementation. I have mentioned this in my very old posts.

They are developed and financed by a government owned corporation. That's where the comparison with public housing as we know it ends.

Timing belt

awec wrote: »

Social tenants buying their social houses is part of the reason why we have such a problem right now. Fianna Fail were at this and it has been a disaster.

The problem is you are selling off highly valuable assets in high value locations, and you aren't getting enough money to replace them (since they are not sold for their true value), so replacement with new social stock doesn't happen.

That's a very valid point....but the majority of previous social housing is not in high value locations. Yes some was but not the majority.

Spending money on HAP is equally as bad a policy... If the money spent on HAP was redirected to building new social stock it would take pressure off the overall housing market.

Yurt2

Timing belt wrote: »

That's a very valid point....but the majority of previous social housing is not in high value locations. Yes some was but not the majority.

Spending money on HAP is equally as bad a policy... If the money spent on HAP was redirected to building new social stock it would take pressure off the overall housing market.

HAP is a long term disaster. Well intentioned I suppose but designed as a short term measure to paper over a housing strategy failure and has created more problems than it has solved if taken as a whole.

Timing belt

Yurt! wrote: »

Fair enough. A HDB type provision of housing is completely achievable in Ireland. Indeed, many of the housing agencies affordable housing schemes (sold slightly over construction cost) can be readily compared to the HDB model and include very similar clawback provisions for 10 years or so to prevent house flipping. It can be scaled up. These are not something for nothing developments, and can put a major dent in the affordability crisis.


There is of course, hostility to them. Poorly articulated and even the people who are hostile to them can't really explain why.

Whether this is called Social housing, public housing, HDB, affordable housing makes no difference what it's called.... It is about providing housing that is needed as opposed to the state wasting money renting in the private sector at over the top cost.

Unfortunately as soon as people hear social housing they think houses for free to people on the dole.

Yurt2

Timing belt wrote: »

Unfortunately as soon as people hear social housing they think houses for free to people on the dole.

Bingo.