Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting investment opportunity in Finglas.

54 apartments for 13.85m

Vast majority are 2 bed. So that would make average price just over 256k.

Certainly no discount for buying in bulk. 256k would be the highest price for a 2 bed in Finglas.

In fact a presumably identical apartment is currently on the open market for 235k

I wonder how many of these will end up on long term leases to the council?

The apartments that are already occupied average about €1200/month. They are nice looking apartments based on the other example you linked. Considering some of the mad rents we see that sounds reasonable enough. From memory that’s a nice part of tingles too but am open to correction on that.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting investment opportunity in Finglas.

54 apartments for 13.85m

Vast majority are 2 bed. So that would make average price just over 256k.

Certainly no discount for buying in bulk. 256k would be the highest price for a 2 bed in Finglas.

In fact a presumably identical apartment is currently on the open market for 235k

I wonder how many of these will end up on long term leases to the council?

28 vacant. Seems quite a high vacancy rate. Surely there would have been a market for them so you can only expect the vacancy rate with the prospect of leasing to the council for 25 years on an upward only golden ticket lease is a positive for the valuation.

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

The apartments that are already occupied average about €1200/month. They are nice looking apartments based on the other example you linked. Considering some of the mad rents we see that sounds reasonable enough. From memory that’s a nice part of tingles too but am open to correction on that.

So about a 5% return on investment not bad considering the money in the bank would attract negative interest or if you Invested in a 20 year Irish bond you would only get 0.5%

L1011

Ability to convert to a total of 62 apartments, obviously not free but would cost less than the value of the apartments so that would bring the price per unit down slightly.

fergus1001

schmittel wrote:

In all seriousness, that's exactly what I think will happen

all the more reason to vote for them so

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

The apartments that are already occupied average about €1200/month. They are nice looking apartments based on the other example you linked. Considering some of the mad rents we see that sounds reasonable enough. From memory that’s a nice part of tingles too but am open to correction on that.

Very reasonable indeed looking at some other two bed prices in Finglas.

This 2 bed in the same block posted today is asking 1600 a month.

Why would a portfolio of apartments rented at a substantial discount to market rent, and a rent that cannot be increased to market rates, command a premium price per apartment compared?

Defies all market logic.

hometruths

fergus1001 wrote: »

all the more reason to vote for them so

For sure depending on your circumstances. My own circumstances do not favour a SF government.

combat14

Irish debt will be close to quarter of a trillion by year end, Donohoe warns

Minister says budgetary policy cannot keep expanding while growth accelerating

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-debt-will-be-close-to-quarter-of-a-trillion-by-year-end-donohoe-warns-1.4605860%3fmode=amp

yep as people pay stupid money here for houses again the minister responsible for managing the states actual finances kindly reminds us that ireland is floating once again on a debt fuelled bubble .. party on if u dare we all know what happened last time tho few now care to vaguely remember

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Very reasonable indeed looking at some other two bed prices in Finglas.

This 2 bed in the same block posted today is asking 1600 a month.

Why would a portfolio of apartments rented at a substantial discount to market rent, and a rent that cannot be increased to market rates, command a premium price per apartment compared?

Defies all market logic.

I wonder is this them? Tidy profit.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/01/2018%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2019%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*Prospect%20hill*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2018&StartMonth=01&EndMonth=12&Address=Prospect%20hill

Amadan Dubh

combat14 wrote: »

Irish debt will be close to quarter of a trillion by year end, Donohoe warns

Minister says budgetary policy cannot keep expanding while growth accelerating

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-debt-will-be-close-to-quarter-of-a-trillion-by-year-end-donohoe-warns-1.4605860%3fmode=amp

yep as people pay stupid money here for houses again the minister responsible for managing the states actual finances kindly reminds us that ireland is floating once again on a debt fuelled bubble .. party on if u dare we all know what happened last time tho few now care to vaguely remember

These types of warnings are ridiculous while the government delays removing all covid restrictions. Tourism in 2021 is lost until 2022 which means hundreds of thousands with little to no work until then meaning borrowing must continue to cover them for the government's covid restrictions. Then, once we are finally in the clear with restrictions, businesses need to be given grants, which means even more borrowing. It is unavoidable whole we still have restrictions. Maybe budget 2023 can they try to look to being more prudent when the economy has had a full 2022 to get back on its feet. But they won't be able to get any blood from the stone of income tax/PRSI, that seems quite conclusive.

Saying the economy is growing while we have incredibly high numbers out of work, with not much prospect of most of them getting sufficient hours until at least the end of the year and into next year, is Pascal clearly getting hoodwinked with whatever data claims the economy is growing. Removing government supports from the housing market and the economy and both the economy and housing market fall apart; that is not much of a "growing" economy to me. It's scarily like the build up to 2008 again.

SEPT 23 1989

For younger people here banks were firing out mortgages just before the last crash

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

Irish debt will be close to quarter of a trillion by year end, Donohoe warns

Minister says budgetary policy cannot keep expanding while growth accelerating

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-debt-will-be-close-to-quarter-of-a-trillion-by-year-end-donohoe-warns-1.4605860%3fmode=amp

yep as people pay stupid money here for houses again the minister responsible for managing the states actual finances kindly reminds us that ireland is floating once again on a debt fuelled bubble .. party on if u dare we all know what happened last time tho few now care to vaguely remember

That would explain why he and his equaly thick mates decided now's a great time to give the whole public service a 1% pay rise. Self service woud be a more apt name for them.

Zenify

Would like to see what people think about the relationship between the stock market and property market. Do people here think the are linked or not?

Will we see a property crash if we get a stock market crash or is supply so short that it wouldn't make a difference ?

Zenify

Zenify wrote: »

Would like to see what people think about the relationship between the stock market and property market. Do people here think the are linked or not?

Will we see a property crash if we get a stock market crash or is supply so short that it wouldn't make a difference ?

The AIB buying

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-agrees-to-buy-ulster-bank-s-4-2bn-corporate-loan-book-1.4605514

Buying it bank increasing the risks

I dont think AIB will pass crash test straight after it and will have enough assets pass it. Government ( by its reaction to it ) says Its Ok .

What will happen when busineses will lose capitalisation on stock markets ?And those who invested to them will have difficulties pay loans ?

We back to 2008 at double ( by printed amount of money ) speed.

Will this affect property market ? Well The FED for example know the Best :

US cannot afford housing market ‘boom and bust’, warns Fed official

https://www.ft.com/content/ff83ed04-3bb5-444a-9af0-1b466201ef67

Signals all way around.

But in Ireland all trough green glass :

Sharp increase in mortgage approvals last month

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/sharp-increase-in-mortgage-approvals-last-month-1.4606052

No sign about what gonna happen with those mortgages after 6 months if property will not be bought

AIB tightens mortgage lending rules
Bank cuts ‘approval in principle’ duration in which to find home from 12 to six months

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/aib-tightens-mortgage-lending-rules-1.4473060

Is this not the reason why people try buy property at any price ?

Marius34

Zenify wrote: »

Would like to see what people think about the relationship between the stock market and property market. Do people here think the are linked or not?

Will we see a property crash if we get a stock market crash or is supply so short that it wouldn't make a difference ?

There is definitely a relation between two. Just that property market is not very volatile, which is opposite to stock market. And you can predict property market in short term, partially from stock market. Whereas you can't predict stock market even in short term.

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

There is definitely a relation between two. Just that property market is not very volatile, which is opposite to stock market. And you can predict property market in short term, partially from stock market. Whereas you can't predict stock market even in short term.

I just thinking what would happen if Green Reit shares prices on stock market will cost lets say half price ?

Mad_maxx

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

I just thinking what would happen if Green Reit shares prices on stock market will cost lets say half price ?

there is no correlation between the REIT,s and the actual property market

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

there is no correlation between the REIT,s and the actual property market

https://www.ft.com/content/4cff1a60-be5d-11e9-b350-db00d509634e

Green Reit, Ireland’s first real estate investment trust, is to be sold to London-based property investment group Henderson Park in a €1.34bn deal that underlines the slowdown in the country’s commercial property market after a period of strong growth.

Green was floated six years ago as a recovery began in the Irish property market, which had been knocked by the financial crash of 2008. It has increased its real estate portfolio to a value of €1.48bn, predominantly based in Dublin, but its owners have been frustrated that its shares have traded at a perceived discount to the value of its assets for the past three years.

“Green Reit has been trading at a persistent structural discount to its underlying net asset value since early 2016,” said Gary Kennedy, chairman of the group. “This persistent discount has been inconsistent with the value of the company’s assets, management, business plan and performance as well as the Irish commercial property sector.”

The decision to sell the company, made in April, comes as the Irish commercial property market has cooled, with double digit annual increases giving way to single-digit ones. Prices rose by 5 per cent in 2018, according to the country’s central bank.

The cash deal agreed with Henderson values Green’s shares at €1.91 a share, a 25 per cent premium to its April share price before the start of the sale process and a 5 per cent premium to Monday’s closing share price. The companies said it represents a 2 per cent premium to the net asset value at the end of June.

Henderson Park was set up in 2016 by Nick Weber, a former executive at Goldman Sachs and the hedge fund Mount Kellett.

“The portfolio offers exposure to high-quality properties located predominantly in Dublin, leased to blue-chip tenants, and two strategic development sites,” said Mr Weber, Henderson’s chief executive. “We believe in the short-term and long-term prospects of the Irish market with its strong macroeconomic backdrop and underlying real estate fundamentals.”

tobsey

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/4cff1a60-be5d-11e9-b350-db00d509634e

Green Reit, Ireland’s first real estate investment trust, is to be sold to London-based….

That was sold 2 years ago, and they were exclusively in the commercial sector. That’s not really relevant to residential.

tobsey

tobsey wrote: »

That was sold 2 years ago, and they were exclusively in the commercial sector. That’s not really relevant to residential.

This tread about :

Irish Property Market chat II - *mod warnings / threadbanned users post 1*

Timing belt

Zenify wrote: »

Would like to see what people think about the relationship between the stock market and property market. Do people here think the are linked or not?

Will we see a property crash if we get a stock market crash or is supply so short that it wouldn't make a difference ?

There is a relationship if stock market no longer offers sufficient reward because P/E ratio has gotten so high that the yield and potential increase in share price don’t provide sufficient reward for the risk the investors will look else where to invest and property is a obvious target.

Normally when the stock market crashes investors flee to the safe haven of bonds but as bond yields are so low and would go lower with increased demand the money may not go there this time and may end up in the property market especially if the crash is brought about due to rising rates to combat inflation. Rates don’t need to rise much to crash the market and could increase and still be unattractive to investors especially when you apply discount due to the time value of money taking into account. The ESBR estimates that a 1% rise in rates would lead to a drop in the value of non money market funds of 5-7% because they have increased their interest rate risk chasing yield. if this was accompanied by a stock market crash then you could end up with the funds in difficulty and being forced to sell property. In order to prevent this happening most of the funds have agreed large credit lines with the banks following the scare the got at the start of 2020. Whether they are still happy to pay for the credit lines and have enough headroom is the question.

The other relationship is that if the stock market crashes it will be tech stocks like Microsoft Tesla apple google tic toc etc that will get hit the hardest as any increase in rates or inflation Will see their market valuations drop due to value of future profits being discounted. If they decide to cut costs to prop up share price then Ireland may see a lot of job looses which will impact property prices

Graham

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

This tread about :

Irish Property Market chat II - *mod warnings / threadbanned users post 1*

2021 Irish Property Market chat II

Graham

Graham wrote: »

2021 Irish Property Market chat II

Dont see much difference
Same scenario same games same rules same milking
Same Final

Graham

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Dont see much difference

I'll clarify.

Mod Note

2021 Irish Property Market chat

Please take other discussion to other threads.

Do not reply to this post.

fergus1001

combat14 wrote:

yep as people pay stupid money here for houses again the minister responsible for managing the states actual finances kindly reminds us that ireland is floating once again on a debt fuelled bubble .. party on if u dare we all know what happened last time tho few now care to vaguely remember

tax hikes may cause a hiccup in the housing market no ?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I wonder is this them? Tidy profit.

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/01/2018%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2019%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*Prospect%20hill*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2018&StartMonth=01&EndMonth=12&Address=Prospect%20hill

Turns out these are being sold by NAMA, ie the taxpayer.

You'd have to wonder how good an asset management job on our behalf the National Asset Management Agency is doing if they can only achieve a 48% occupancy rate rented at a 30% discount to market rates.

MacronvFrugals

This build to rent game is looking very bubbly when these lads are trying to build units "on the upper end" out in Santry, whatever about the Docklands but Santry.

In the case of Santry Place, Dwyer Nolan is set to deliver apartments aimed towards the upper end of the private rented sector market. Located on the Swords Road and within close proximity to both the Omni Park shopping centre and Santry Park, the development will comprise a mix of concierge-serviced one, two and three-bedroom units, along with a range of residents’ amenities.

I thought the advantage behind this fund lease thing was not to create a situation whereby to many social tenants are together, with the council buying and funds owning the rest Hampton Wood is likely at 80%+ social.

At Hampton Wood, Dwyer Nolan’s deal with Ardstone on 125 units follows on from its sale of 128 apartments to Ires Reit for €40 million in 2017, along with a €35 million sale of 92 houses and apartments at the same development to Dublin City Council.


The 125 units at Hampton Wood and the 68 units at Windermere in Clongriffin are scheduled for delivery in 2022.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/ardstone-capital-pays-180m-for-398-dublin-rental-apartments-1.4606946

MacronvFrugals

The department is more in line with the opposition on this measure as well as shared-equity



Finance minister ignored advice over new stamp duty rules for cuckoo funds

A senior official at the Department of Finance warned the Government that exempting apartments bought by cuckoo funds from a tax increase would make it impossible for first-time buyers to enter the market.

Calls have been made for Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe to explain why he went against the advice of one of his top officials in drafting new stamp duty measures.

Writing to Department of Finance secretary general John Hogan, Mr Sheridan suggested an "additional stamp duty charge for the bulk purchase of houses and apartments, but a lessor rate for apartments combined with a rule that an apartment complex cannot be owned by one entity

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40325594.html

Villa05

Jim power getting a little animated on his latest podcast- the other hand
He is advising young people to get out of Ireland and pursue their life and careers elsewhere mainly due to housing, covid restrictions and the general pull up the ladder mentality in wages, pensions, jobs

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Turns out these are being sold by NAMA, ie the taxpayer.

You'd have to wonder how good an asset management job on our behalf the National Asset Management Agency is doing if they can only achieve a 48% occupancy rate rented at a 30% discount to market rates.

Did I read in 1 article the vacant units have never been let?