Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Yurt! wrote: »

They are developed and financed by a government owned corporation. That's where the comparison with public housing as we know it ends.

And here is the point its financed/subsidies by government, and that's how they can control the price. In Singapore those pricing rules are not applied on private. So you can't implement similar to Singapore Public pricing model on Irish Private houses.

Balluba wrote: »

A crash will come.
It is not sustainable for house prices to rise faster than wages.
The only question is WHEN ?

Why would they crash though? Would they not be maintained at the ceiling of affordability?

drogon. wrote: »

I honestly think the rental market needs to be fixed first, as long as it is cheaper to pay a mortgage rather than paying rent, people are gonna save/borrow to get on the property ladder.

That's a fair point. As a simple example, I just moved back to Ireland from the UK for family reasons; I might stay for good, I might stay for just another couple of years before going back. In a sane property market, I'd probably rent for another year or two to work out my plans before trying to buy. But with the cost of renting vs mortgaging, and the risk of house prices spiralling even higher, I'm looking at buying, accepting that I might end up selling up again in 2-3 years. So that's another person piling into the market to buy.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

When landlord will not get money he want he will have bring rent to level people can pay or sell the property to pay mortgage back
That how market rules work
When government support landlords happy are landlord,the bank but not person which has no money to pay
Creating HAP government created bigger problem on market

With the RPZs, like HAP, it leads to government induced market inflation as 4% is seen as a justifiable increase to rent in a year (as I've said, as a renting worker you need to be getting at least 6/7% and probably 10% wage increases each year to justify your employment with that employer. Otherwise you're left worse off than the year before). Yet apparently inflation has been below 2%. It's a scam, genuinely, and the CPI is manipulated to read that inflation is low meaning continued QE is justified. QE is hampering economic growth by ending up in property and stocks as well as corporate debt markets which is enabling zombie corporations to lumber on. We are living in a socialist market and as a centrist and capitalist, I think it is disgraceful that the market is not allowed to correct by the government and ECB.

javaboy wrote:

Again it's only a bubble if it pops. I haven't seen anyone explain where the pop is coming from and why it would be sudden? We're already being told that funds/gov are outbidding FTBs and yet the stats say FTBs drawdowns are going ahead in huge numbers:

Its either a bubble or its not. All bubbles pop

If we had an affordability crisis for the last few years, double digit percentage increases don't resolve the issue.

Most assets are in a bubble, housing appears to be the last one to enter this territory. The financial sector appears to have left this till last to allow for people to forget the lessons of the last bust.


Are they buying further and further away from their working base out of desperation to escape gouging rents. Will they be committed to this new area they have been forced to migrate to?

javaboy wrote:

I don't see the relevance. We're miles off oversupply in residential housing. Not even the optimistic predictions say we're going to meet demand any time soon. The commercial sector has entirely different dynamics not to mention the impact of COVID.

First point, it frees up labour to address supply of housing

I'm sure the commercial sector had positive dynamics when they started building. Dynamics change

Has the cost of covid been addressed? Could that change the dynamics of the ftb in the future. I read that 2 billion of the health spend on covid will be recurring every year

javaboy wrote:

Is the bolded part true outside of the public sector? Genuine question as it's not been my experience in the private sector. Not by a long shot.

Will post the full article later if you wish, but here is a quote

"Combined with the fact that earnings have stalled for young people entering the workforce in the past few years, which has left employees in their early 20s earning less in the 2010s than in the 1990s or 2000s, ESRI economist Barra Roantree said the findings “should be a cause for serious concernâ€.

schmittel wrote:

Been advised by who?

A state sponsored housing charity to buy time to find a resolution

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

With the RPZs, like HAP, it leads to government induced market inflation as 4% is seen as a justifiable increase to rent in a year (as I've said, as a renting worker you need to be getting at least 6/7% and probably 10% wage increases each year to justify your employment with that employer. Otherwise you're left worse off than the year before). Yet apparently inflation has been below 2%. It's a scam, genuinely, and the CPI is manipulated to read that inflation is low meaning continued QE is justified. QE is hampering economic growth by ending up in property and stocks as well as corporate debt markets which is enabling zombie corporations to lumber on. We are living in a socialist market and as a centrist and capitalist, I think it is disgraceful that the market is not allowed to correct by the government and ECB.

If interest rates were high enough prior to covid the central banks would have cut them and at the same time increased liquidity in the market. QE does exactly the same thing and is not hampering economic growth in fact it is having the opposite effect.

With regards RPZs and HAP yes this issue as it is keeping rents at high levels.

It would be interesting to get a take on the next 12 months? How do people see the market going? Maybe a poll?

Hubertj wrote:

Why were they given notice to quit? Is the landlord selling or other reasons? It is very unfortunate but owners of property have to be able to exercise their rights over it. Can rules be set so banks have to give a mortgage with tenants in situ? Having said that what if the purchaser wants to live in the house/apartment? Can rules be set that a house/apartment can only be rental?

In the primary case the rent is roughly 20% below the market. We suspect this is the reason.

Agreed on owners rights but for all our progress citizens are forced to break the law to survive. Are we that much different from when crimes of nesecity were punished with a one way ticket to Australia

The rent consistently paid for 8 years would easily cover with profit a new build a rated House in the area, were the gov/council/ahb to build stock.

The wage earners in the household are working in what would be considered to be essential services. It would be some irony if covid spending indirectly led to them and their children being homeless

All in this together. The hypocrisy