Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Surely schools being closed should lead to a reduction in positive cases?

I think we're going to end up with the same average number of cases a day in two weeks and we'll be kicking ourselves that we didn't stick to the July 5th plan.

I'm sure Boris is also kicking himself. Daily cases have doubled in the UK over the past two weeks, and yet hospitalisations have only gone up by around 15%. If we take a similar period from last year - last week of September to first week of October - cases also doubled during a two week period and average numbers admitted to hospitals also doubled during those two weeks. Vaccinations are working.

If Johnson had held out, the vaccinations would have caught up with the Delta variant and even with a higher surge in cases resulting from a full reopen, hospitalisations would never have increased to an unworkable peak. But Boris is worried about how he will be written about since the Cummings revelations, and his legacy, and he is more cautious now that he might have been a year ago.

AdamD wrote: »

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1377275983535951875?s=21


Dunno but not sure they'd be as far off as these

Fergal, as is his wont, picked one of their case scenario projections for a moderate increase in r. It wasn't a prediction of the future. It wasn't even a prediction NPHET were going with. In fact, if I remember correctly that was in a no vaccine population too.

The modelling consortiums modelling has been OK imo.

No where near the exaggerated levels of awful some people like to make out.

So now there are officially more members in NPHET than there are with Covid 19 in our hospitals .

Turtwig wrote: »

Fergal, as is his wont, picked one of their case scenario projections for a moderate increase in r. It wasn't a prediction of the future. It wasn't even a prediction NPHET were going with. In fact, if I remember correctly that was in a no vaccine population too.

Someone asked Fergal in the comments whether that included there being vaccines and he confirmed it did factor it in.

There are now 5 more members of NPHET than people in hospital with COVID19 in Ireland.

UK talking about allowing 140k at Silverstone Grand Prix and 60k at Wembley soon.

Ireland talking about cancelling reopening because of “situation in the UK”.

This is really bonkers.

Swaine wrote: »

41 members of NPHET at the moment.

We are seeing a steady increase in the admissions to NPHET over the past few weeks.

We need these numbers to drop before we could consider the easing of restrictions.

Interesting that MM took this direct quote from the Portuguese PM

Quoting the Portuguese Prime Minister, Mr Martin said the experience of the Delta variant there was not accompanied by a rise in hospitalisation and critical care.

TheDoctor wrote: »

We are seeing a steady increase in the admissions to NPHET over the past few weeks.

We need these numbers to drop before we could consider the easing of restrictions.

Should be renamed NOTFIT .........I'LL GET MY HAT

TheDoctor wrote: »

I dont know anyone whos contacts have gone down since 31st March.

Really showing how rubbish those models are.

Close contacts have gone from 3.5 to 3.7 since March to June. So there was no moderate increase, hence daily figures they quoted didn't come to pass.

TheDoctor wrote: »

I find those figures quite hard to believe comparing the city centre here now to what it was in March.

Feel free to check it out for yourself
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-updates.html

snotboogie wrote: »

Ourworldindata has a restrictions measurement which puts us as the 3rd most restricted in the EU, behind Italy and Portugal. I don't know the situation in Italy and Portugal but they also put Canada as more restricted than us which is insane. On balance it does seem that we have the most restrictions of anywhere in Europe and North.

That ourworldindata comparison is absolute crap. Part of the calculation is based on financial aid, vaccine purchasing and totally non related items when you're talking about lockdown severity.

On Canada, parts of it had indoor dining closed the past 8 months. Montreal I believe have indoor dining closed a total of 360 days since the pandemic hit.

AdamD wrote: »

Right I'll join the 'conspiracy theorists'. Its shaping up the same as last summer, they'll delay indoor dining (see pubs last summer), then there will be another reason - August bank holiday / schools returning, for it to be delayed again. Suddenly we're in Autumn and they haven't opened, there's worry of a 'winter wave'....

I appreciate that some people find themselves so hopelessly exhausted by this, that it feels like it will never end.

But this year and last year are two entirely different scenarios. Last year we had no vaccines, and we were still hopelessly naive about infection control. We thought that we could do "nearly normal" with a bit of handwashing and distancing, and it turned out to be a mess.

In May/June there was still an aspect of "maybe we're done, maybe this thing won't come back", so a lot of guards were let down.

This year we have vaccines and a much better understanding as a society, of how to protect ourselves. We know this thing will come back amongst the unvaccinated, if we let our guard down.

There is no real justification for delaying indoor dining to protect schools. One way or another by the time we get to schools reopening, the majority of adults will be fully vaccinated. Right now we have a much more liberal opening of society than we did before indoor dining reopened last year, and cases are still dropping. This is the proof that we have a better grip on what needs to be done.

I'm not saying they won't push it back. I don't have a crystal ball. Micháel has at least once blamed variants for increases when relaxed restrictions were the issue, and has at least twice put out the "whole new virus" line, which is excessively alarmist. So we know he is very easily swayed toward risk aversion.

But based on the brief we heard yesterday, based on the situation in other regions, the pace of our vaccine rollout and the public appetite, I'm not expecting the 5th July date to be moved back. None of the comments being made by politicians seem to be suggesting it either - in the UK it was obvious two weeks out that their "freedom day", was off the table. Our politicians haven't been doing the same sandbagging, and if they wanted to push it back they wouldn't be leaving it to the last minute.

If asked for hypotheticals, then it could be pushed back by a week or two based on Martin's comment in Brussels today - the justification will be that they want to open the vaccination programme to all adults by mid-July, and need a little extra time to put this in place.

People overall are happy I think with outdoor eating and drinking. I've yet to hear anyone around me complaining that they'd prefer to be indoors. A pub near me has managed to make more space outside than they have ever had inside and have said they're doing the best business they have in years.

So I think any resistance to not reopening could be less than expected. The majority of premises seem to have adapted to some degree and the majority of people glad to sit outside in the summer.