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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #5702
    robbiezero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,862 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    Have you been outside the door lately? Place is mobbed, Dublin City thronged with crowds enjoying ‘hospitality’.

    Anyway my point is you have a thread dedicated to giving out about fictitious lockdowns and ‘look at Denmark’ every second post. Isn’t one thread enough or do you have to repeat the same ráméis here for twice the outrage?

    Why don't you start your own thread where only positivity and praise of Government action (if any) is allowed?
    This is the main Covid thread. Discussion of the ridiculous prospect of postponing the relaxation of restrictions in July is perfectly valid.


  • #5703
    ClosedAccountFuzzy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ClosedAccountFuzzy


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    What I absolutely could not understand at the time was if they were so concerned why they didn’t make an information video at the time
    They were concerned we wouldn’t put a mask on right so why not make a video and show it on all channels .
    Equally now with antigen tests they are concerned we might do it all wrong so why now SHOW US HOW .
    They are so quick to deem us all stupid so why not teach us dopes how to do it right instead of whinging that we are to stupid to get it

    It sums up Irish doctors’ rather paternalistic and dated attitudes. You see the same thing in healthcare a lot of the time and a culture that’s only very recently moved away from the ‘god complex’ of senior consultants.

    They also tend to take their lead from US data and American attitudes to absolutely everything tend to go down the route of contrarianism and conspiracy theory. So things like mask wearing became a political issue immediately. So are vaccines and so is everything.

    Ireland’s population probably has more in common with Denmark and New Zealand than Denver and Minneapolis in terms of social cohesion, trust in science, facts and so on, but we’ll get presented with the US model anyway because we speak English and our medical community has more exposure to American discussion.

    The medics seemed to be tiptoeing around masks when nobody (other than a handful of loons online) had any issue with them, but the loons online and the medics were both paying more attention to the USA than Irish reality.

    I don’t think that issue is as prevalent in most of continental Europe.

    We need to be embracing that social cohesion and pragmatism much more than I think we have been doing to-date.


  • #5704
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,740 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    petes wrote: »
    Typical response from you and completely expected, you have posted the same since day one and fair enough you've stuck to it. I've not mentioned anything about a sob story so stop making things up.

    What are you doing about it other than venting your faux outrage on the internet?

    What are you doing about me venting in the internet only venting on the internet about me venting on the internet?

    Old Irish hypocrisy is alive and well


  • #5705
    petes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    What are you doing about me venting in the internet only venting on the internet about me venting on the internet?

    Old Irish hypocrisy is alive and well

    So, you are doing noting then, thanks for confirming. You should also look up the meaning of hypocrisy too before trying to use it in a sentence!

    Anyway, I'm off to enjoy my day.


  • #5706
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 895 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The fact this line below is being bandied about tells you there's a good chance this will happen.

    "However, there are also concerns at senior levels of Government a delay may lead to further extensions, with the next window for more reopening not arising until as late as autumn".

    How can they play with people's livelihoods like this? It's abhorrent, it's coercive control, simple as. Why does not opening on the 5th July mean a delay til August/September? That's not the 2 week delay the NPHET shills (let's be honest and call them what they are at this stage - the faux concern isn't fooling anyone) keep advocating in the wait and see approach. We'll be waiting and seeing until Christmas.


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  • #5707
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,740 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    petes wrote: »
    So, you are doing noting then, thanks for confirming. You should also look up the meaning of hypocrisy too before trying to use it in a sentence!

    Anyway, I'm off to enjoy my day.

    Do that

    Better than getting annoyed online because people are getting annoyed online

    Couldn’t make it up


  • #5708
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    I wouldn't hold out much hope. The last model Philip Nolan showed us back in May used some very high level assumptions for the R rate. It was a particularly light weight piece of work.

    Nolan and the modelling group are a gaggle of total spoofers, they would publish the models they use rather than just the output if they weren't just making it up.

    The ridiculous R numbers with meaningless ranges like 0.7-1.1 they have been putting out are evidence they don't have a scooby doo.


  • #5709
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    OwenM wrote: »
    Nolan and the modelling group are a gaggle of total spoofers, they would publish the models they use rather than just the output if they weren't just making it up.

    The ridiculous R numbers with meaningless ranges like 0.7-1.1 they have been putting out are evidence they don't have a scooby doo.
    What have your own calculations revealed, Owen?


  • #5710
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,446 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Did you not say you'd arranged to get your vax ~6 weeks earlier than the rest of your cohort despite having no underlying conditions?
    I'm sure I'll be more relaxed when I get my vax and my parents have their second vax.

    I didn’t ask for the vaccine our GP is going through the age groups after finishing his cohort 4/7 and over 70’s
    I was offered due to technically working on the frontline in retail. Also my parents and in laws are fully vaccinated plus a few siblings.
    Again offered due to GP going through the ages.
    I’m not happy with the way peoples livelihoods are being messed around with due to a abundance of caution. We’ve 36 in hospitals average cases 300 a day 50,000 vaccines a day being given.
    This has to stop we need to move on!


  • #5711
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 895 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ficheall wrote: »
    What have your own calculations revealed, Owen?

    To be fair, he's not in charge of modelling for the entire country, is he? And Owen's models don't decide if an entire industry is going to be put on the scrap heap, now, does it?


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  • #5712
    petes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Do that

    Better than getting annoyed online because people are getting annoyed online

    Couldn’t make it up

    Read my posts again, I'm not in the one bit annoyed. But, yeah rather than answer the question I posed, keep ignoring it and claim hypocrisy, it's actually quite funny how posters here deflect a direct question.


  • #5713
    Peter Flynt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    prunudo wrote: »
    Lets see how that mood is in 2 weeks time when people realise their staycation is a waste of money as everywhere is still closed.

    Staycations are a waste of money anyway.
    Country is a rip off.


  • #5714
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    So only 36 people in hospital & there going to hold up opening the country ?

    Id love to know the average age of the hospitalised or how many have under lying conditions ,

    Looking like we won't open and then Autumn & winter will roll around and they'll get scared and try kept things closed ,


  • #5715
    Peter Flynt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    At the heart of the apparent decision not to reopen indoors on July 5th appears to be what went on in December which led to Ireland being the worst place on Earth for covid for a period in January ans schools closed for January & February.

    In December the politicians reopened for the "meaningful Christmas" and it was probably against NPHET's advice.

    This time NPHET are running the show as the politicians are not prepared to deal with the flak for a second time if things go wrong.

    Stated yesterday that if indoor dining does not happen on July 5th then it won't happen at all in 2021 as I do not see what will happen in 14 days after July 5th to improve things when the rest of Europe is open.

    There is also one major difference this time - vaccination.
    For all the boasts from politicians of our vaccination scheme we might as well not be taking them at all.


  • #5716
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Deleted User wrote: »
    To be fair, he's not in charge of modelling for the entire country, is he? And Owen's models don't decide if an entire industry is going to be put on the scrap heap, now, does it?
    To be fair, he doesn't. But it would be nice to know if he had anything to back up his assertions when dissing the team of professionals who are doing the actual calculations.


    Otherwise you get two posters saying
    "Those guys are wrong - I think the R rate is 0.4, NPHET are idiots" and those in favour of opening up will thank it, and another poster saying
    "I think the R rate is 1.3, NPHET are definitely doing the right thing", and that is equally pointless.


    I don't know what Owen's qualifications/background are - he could well have some data or insight into the calculations that the rest of us don't and that would be good to hear. Disagreeing with numbers simply on the grounds that they inconvenience you is less noteworthy.


  • #5717
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ficheall wrote: »
    What have your own calculations revealed, Owen?

    https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1377275983535951875?s=21


    Dunno but not sure they'd be as far off as these


  • #5718
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    What's the logic with Belgium (and I think Canada) refusing people from countries like UK even if fully vaccinated due to Delta? But opening to EU countries for vaccinated people due to passport? Surely fully vaccinated should mean the same treatment, regardless of the levels of Delta around - or is vaccination no longer sufficient if there are high levels of Delta?


  • #5719
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 895 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ficheall wrote: »
    To be fair, he doesn't. But it would be nice to know if he had anything to back up his assertions when dissing the team of professionals who are doing the actual calculations.

    .

    What have we got to go on though? Nolan and NPHET are extremely secretive of their methods and have had bizarre regions such as 0.5-1.2 which could mean the pandemic is halving or it could be growing exponentially. When these calculations are being used to shut down entire economies and sectors, we could do with some better maths then 'maybe things are awful, maybe things are good'.

    You can criticise what looks like back of the fag packet maths when it is so vague and open to interpretation without having to be a mathematician yourself.


  • #5720
    Normal One
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 355 ✭✭Normal One


    yourdeadwright wrote: »
    So only 36 people in hospital & there going to hold up opening the country ?

    Id love to know the average age of the hospitalised or how many have under lying conditions ,

    Looking like we won't open and then Autumn & winter will roll around and they'll get scared and try kept things closed ,

    Worth remembering that there may be asymptotic cases and in hospital for completely unrelated matters too - and still included in the numbers


  • #5721
    TefalBrain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 706 ✭✭✭TefalBrain


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The fact this line below is being bandied about tells you there's a good chance this will happen.

    "However, there are also concerns at senior levels of Government a delay may lead to further extensions, with the next window for more reopening not arising until as late as autumn".

    How can they play with people's livelihoods like this? It's abhorrent, it's coercive control, simple as. Why does not opening on the 5th July mean a delay til August/September? That's not the 2 week delay the NPHET shills (let's be honest and call them what they are at this stage - the faux concern isn't fooling anyone) keep advocating in the wait and see approach. We'll be waiting and seeing until Christmas.

    They are a playing compliant populace for fools.


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  • #5722
    Normal One
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 355 ✭✭Normal One


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    They are a playing compliant populace for fools.

    The Public Order Unit are taking care of the non compliant


  • #5723
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,740 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Peter Flynt wrote: »
    Stated yesterday that if indoor dining does not happen on July 5th then it won't happen at all in 2021 as I do not see what will happen in 14 days after July 5th to improve things when the rest of Europe is open..

    100%

    I seen yesterday people were saying it’s just 2 weeks

    Is it bo#ix, if it doesn’t happen on July 5th it won’t happen this year


  • #5724
    TefalBrain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 706 ✭✭✭TefalBrain


    We have less freedoms in our lives than we had this time last year, with millions of vaccinations in arms now. Lol. What a kip of a country.

    They need to stick "careful now" on the tricolour at this stage.


  • #5725
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    AdamD wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1377275983535951875?s=21


    Dunno but not sure they'd be as far off as these

    I dont know anyone whos contacts have gone down since 31st March.

    Really showing how rubbish those models are.


  • #5726
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    It seemed obvious to me that the plan for reopening was always meant to coincide with having the adult population as vaccinated as possible. As we didn’t hit our 80% target for end of June - then compound that with the imminence of the delta variant - it seems self-evident that the reopening would have to be delayed.

    What is interesting to me is the flip in people’s attitudes — a lot of people I know now who are full vaccinated want society to reopen for them, and seem not to care for the remaining unvaccinated members of our populace who may mostly be under the age of forty, but just because it won’t kill them doesn’t mean they can’t experience complications from COVID (for further reading: long COVID). The constant trivialising of an serious disease because of its mortality rate among age cohorts is tiresome and a lazy argument.


  • #5727
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Deleted User wrote: »
    bizarre regions such as 0.5-1.2
    R numbers from wiki:

    Measles 12-18
    Chickenpox 10-12
    Mumps 10-12
    Rubella 6-7
    Polio 5-7
    Pertussis, I've never heard of (oh, seems it's whooping cough) but they've somehow managed to nail it down to 5.5.
    Smallpox 3.5-6
    I see they have Covid listed here as 2.7 (2.39-3.44) - perhaps needs updating at some point.
    Hiv 2-5
    SARS 2-4
    etc.


    R numbers are tricky to calculate - especially in a relatively new and evolving situation.


    Would be interesting to see their calculations, sure, but posters on here were arguing until they were blue in the face about what "mean" "median" "outlier" "exponential" etc. meant - I'm not confident that NPHET's calculations would lead to much enlightenment for us mere mortals. Owen aside, obviously.


  • #5728
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,084 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Gael23 wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0625/1231268-covid-hospitals/

    Im going to estimate hospital numbers will be 24 on July 5th.
    ICU numbers 8

    Be some speech from MM


  • #5729
    Tired332
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20 ✭Tired332


    petes wrote: »
    Read my posts again, I'm not in the one bit annoyed. But, yeah rather than answer the question I posed, keep ignoring it and claim hypocrisy, it's actually quite funny how posters here deflect a direct question.

    Watching Rte and our political party all their lives, bound to pick up a few tricks on deflection


  • #5730
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    I'm struggling with seeing a scenario where reopening on 5th July would lead to a bad outcome.

    By end of july, we will have
    70ish% fully vaccinated
    80ish% with one dose

    Pretty much everyone 30+ will have one dose by then (everyone who wants one anyway). One dose of Pfizer gives 90%+ protection against hospitalisation from the virus (even with delta).

    Even if we see case number increase by 50% a week from their current levels (300 a day) from 5th July to end of July, we'd be at 1200 cases or so at end of July. That would be pretty rapid acceleration, and it's hard to see it being any worse than that. Hospitalisation rates are about 2% at the moment, and this will fall further as we push the virus down to lower age groups. We would be miles off overloading the health service.


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  • #5731
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    At least MM hasn't said "it's like a new virus" this time lol


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