Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Do we not have a choice as things stand?

Sorry - I worded that badly.

What I meant is that I hope that Ireland do not decide that they won't offer the Vaccines to Ages 12-15. That Parents here will have the choice of getting their children vaccinated.

NufcNavan wrote: »

Watch the anti-vaxxers lose their sh*t once the vaccine is approved for under 18s though.

Why though ? The anti-vaxxers can just make their own choices in relation to their own children.

delly wrote: »

Your post is as sour as can be and is now becoming a common one among those who are still not jabbed.

Unless you work in or part of a GP practice, you really have no idea what the protocols are for a GP ordering doses. There is currently no supply issues in MVCs, and if a GP has covered everyone in cohert 4 and 7, and if our older people are covered nationally, then it makes sense for GPs to continue doing what they are doing.

Overall it means the next groups will have less people who require a jab and it supplements the MVC process. But continue to think GPs are going rogue if you like, keeping it a secret from the HSE, just to get some extra cash.

I'm getting my 2nd dose in a week's time so I'm not affected by what the GPs are doing.
I don't think it's fair that many people who are following the rules and applying via the MVC are still awaiting vaccination, while people significantly younger than them are able to skip the queue.
Queue jumpers don't seem to be able to comprehend that with finite supplies of vaccines, they are slowing up the others by going ahead of their turn.
But there have always been people in Ireland who think that's ok, 'mé féiners', and it won't be any different for the vaccination program.

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

Looks (if accurate) like my second dose in October for me, that's fairly grim :-|

Just wanted to add, I'm a follower of these threads but dont regularly post anymore as the case watch is not good for my mental health.
I've just received my second pfizer dose this morning. 34, cohort 7 with other medical issue.
Been deathly afraid of this virus as I have really bad asthma, hayfever, penicillin allergy, history of reactions to MMR etc. The works.
It's so refreshing to see us getting back to normal now as a society as more and more people get vaccinated. My partner can now see her kids again. She was higher risk than me so when the kids went back to in person school we couldnt see them. It's been a couple of months. I havent seen family since early 2020/late 2019 beyond "through the glass" visits at christmas

I dont care if bill gates is able to control me, or spoons stick to my arm, I'm just happy to be getting back to normal.

Lyle wrote: »

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

I think (&hope) it'll go much quicker than this. Electric Picnic will be screwed with this timeline

Lyle wrote: »

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

I would question the 200,000 to be very honest. That is way below what I would expect to be delivered in the first place never mind what is currently in stock

A pessimistic look at the below would have us about 250k mRNA vaccines arriving per week from July, a drop off in what we are currently getting however there is two things to consider.

1. There is a healthy volume of mRNA in stock which will hopefully be clarified next week ones the cyber attack stuff is rectified.

2. We are getting over 300k a week at the moment and given the push on AZ are probably only using 200k mRNA ones for the next 3-4 weeks as there is over 100k a week to be done of those, building up more buffer stock in mRNA vaccines.

I do think there will be a stagnation in mid August more than July if the stocks continue at 250k (240k - 270K) a week but hopefully Moderna will step up by then.

Adding link

https://mobile.twitter.com/jorisvaesen/status/1403727828273750016

On looking at your numbers further v the population remaining, its way off to be honest and overly pessimistic

Every country sees a reduction in uptake as you reach younger cohorts.
So if there was only 70% uptake among the 30-39s for example, that would speed up the process for those 20-29 who did want it.

duffman13 wrote: »

I would question the 200,000 to be very honest. That is way below what I would expect to be delivered in the first place never mind what is currently in stock

A pessimistic look at the below would have us about 250k mRNA vaccines arriving per week from July, a drop off in what we are currently getting however there is two things to consider.

1. There is a healthy volume of mRNA in stock which will hopefully be clarified next week ones the cyber attack stuff is rectified.

2. We are getting over 300k a week at the moment and given the push on AZ are probably only using 200k mRNA ones for the next 3-4 weeks as there is over 100k a week to be done of those, building up more buffer stock in mRNA vaccines.

I do think there will be a stagnation in mid August more than July if the stocks continue at 250k (240k - 270K) a week but hopefully Moderna will step up by then.

Adding link

https://mobile.twitter.com/jorisvaesen/status/1403727828273750016

On looking at your numbers further v the population remaining, its way off to be honest and overly pessimistic

The Pfizer's numbers on that Twitter account have always been wrong.
We don't actually know if we have a stockpile. Doses delivered - doses admin does not automatically equal the stockpiled amount.
Why? Wastage. Do we know if we have been able to use all 6 doses per vial? The last dose requires a special syringe. US states have been wasting doses due to lack of needles. It could be the same here.

delly wrote: »

Your post is as sour as can be and is now becoming a common one among those who are still not jabbed.

Unless you work in or part of a GP practice, you really have no idea what the protocols are for a GP ordering doses. There is currently no supply issues in MVCs, and if a GP has covered everyone in cohert 4 and 7, and if our older people are covered nationally, then it makes sense for GPs to continue doing what they are doing.

Overall it means the next groups will have less people who require a jab and it supplements the MVC process. But continue to think GPs are going rogue if you like, keeping it a secret from the HSE, just to get some extra cash.

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

Er, there are protocols for GPs at the moment, they're only meant to be organising doses for over 70s, cohort 4 and 7. If they're done with them then they shouldn't be getting doses.

If they are getting doses for 4 and 7 and end up with spares then fair enough, but ordering doses for everyone on the books is taking the piss.

They might be taking the piss but they are doing it, my GP did cohort 7 then moved down from BMI 35 to 30 in some cases in to 27 , then moved on to anyone who wants it, my sister is 26 she got hers and is due a second shortly, my brother at 33 got his first Tuesday.
Most people in my small town in their 30's are done through the same GP seems all you need to do is pick up the phone and ask.

ELM327 wrote: »

Just wanted to add, I'm a follower of these threads but dont regularly post anymore as the case watch is not good for my mental health.
I've just received my second pfizer dose this morning. 34, cohort 7 with other medical issue.
Been deathly afraid of this virus as I have really bad asthma, hayfever, penicillin allergy, history of reactions to MMR etc. The works.
It's so refreshing to see us getting back to normal now as a society as more and more people get vaccinated. My partner can now see her kids again. She was higher risk than me so when the kids went back to in person school we couldnt see them. It's been a couple of months. I havent seen family since early 2020/late 2019 beyond "through the glass" visits at christmas

I dont care if bill gates is able to control me, or spoons stick to my arm, I'm just happy to be getting back to normal.

Common sense.

I had my second Pfizer yesterday, feel like the air has been sucked out of my fat body today. But necessary.

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

As someone waiting patiently to register that is a bit disheartening.

Yeah I'm waiting myself it will open soon enough, happy for my siblings though too as they are dealing with family members with cancer and that, I'm sure there is a lot taking the piss in my GP but it's hard to stop that.

eoinbn wrote: »

Swedish numbers have been updated. They now contain a breakdown for Q3.

For us it would mean

Pfizer 180k per week.
Moderna 44k per week in July and August. Moderna to to deliver 1m doses in September. This would probably come from the US supply chain.

That makes sense so for Reid's estimate of 200k - 220k per week. Going by that we're basically going to be plateaued at that that rate per week rate until September so, with a possible rise in September from a dump of Moderna that'll hopefully help to speed up the final round of first doses in the youngest cohorts between 18 and 25. Bit of road still left to travel.