The Delta variant

Wanderer78 · 11-06-2021 7:22pm

tommybrees wrote:

Where do you distinguish between covid and the seasonal flu? Both exact same symptoms.

Only that they dont!

tommybrees wrote:

If there's a new variant then where not talking about covid 19 anymore?

Say wha?

wadacrack · 11-06-2021 7:23pm

Deeper Blue wrote: »

He's a data journalist

Could you provide a real source please? Earlier you claimed "every medical expert in the UK" was predicting this. That lad is not a medical expert.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402352440507351050

Micky 32 · 11-06-2021 7:27pm

wadacrack wrote: »

I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.

And yet it’s only the UK that are complaining about it. It’s in most other countries for a couple months now and there’s nothing sinister going on. Cases worlwide dropping nicely.

[Deleted User] · 11-06-2021 7:27pm

Its dangerous yes
But stopped by the same measures as in march 2020
Wash your hands
Wear your mask
Keep your distance
Its not long until herd immunity
Don't give it any headway and we win our freedom back

Its biggest friend is apathy
Do not fall at the last hurdle please!

thegills · 11-06-2021 7:31pm

amandstu wrote:

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

And you'll only be 60% protected after 2nd jab.

Micky 32 · 11-06-2021 7:32pm

Dempo1 wrote: »

I think the real elephant in the room is a new variant that current Vacinnes can't protect against and by all accounts this is looking increasingly likely along with annual booster shots required.

Where are you getting this shyte from?! The Daily Mail? The vaccines protect by reducing your chances of ending up in hospital by 95% against the so-called delta variant.

I’m guessing forever lockdowns/restrictions? Right? Will that keep you happy along with a few others on this thread? I hate to disappoint you but we are on our way out of this.

[Deleted User] · 11-06-2021 7:33pm

Marine Layer wrote: »

Its dangerous yes
But stopped by the same measures as in march 2020
Wash your hands
Wear your mask
Keep your distance
Its not long until herd immunity
Don't give it any headway and we win our freedom back

Its biggest friend is apathy
Do not fall at the last hurdle please!

Can we cease with this "same measures as March 2020" palaver, it's wholly dishonest. Over 3 million vaccines are now in arms, serving as the ultimate game changer. "Win our freedom back", we're not caged animals for the edification of Tony Holohan.

Lumen · 11-06-2021 7:37pm

Berties_Horse wrote: »

Can we cease with this "same measures as March 2020" palaver, it's wholly dishonest. Over 3 million vaccines are now in arms, serving as the ultimate game changer.

Only a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated. The remainder should be taking reasonable precautions.

TefalBrain · 11-06-2021 7:56pm

Lumen wrote: »

Only a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated. The remainder should be taking reasonable precautions.

The vulnerable quarter that matters.

Life must go on now.

Beasty · 11-06-2021 7:56pm

I suspect it's pretty inevitable this will grab hold here, but with the vast majority of the vulnerable already vaccinated and the vaccination programme continuing to expand I would hope that although numbers will likely increase the numbers in hospital and intensive care will remain very manageable.

What I'm wondering is how NPHET will react to increasing infection numbers with little impact on those who are badly affected. Will they try and push back some of the opening up dates or will they take the view that it's not necessary given how much our population is already protected. I do have a concern that they will not need much to start looking to hold back some of the proposals to open up.

Dempo1 · 11-06-2021 8:00pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

Where are you getting this shyte from?! The Daily Mail? The vaccines protect by reducing your chances of ending up in hospital by 95% against the so-called delta variant.

I’m guessing forever lockdowns/restrictions? Right? Will that keep you happy along with a few others on this thread? I hate to disappoint you but we are on our way out of this.

Very elegant and predictable hysterical response when anyone dares not stick to your narrative.

Take a deep breath, go back to my OP, read it slowly (if it helps), I've not once discussed lockdowns, have acknowledged Vacinnes protect, not stop new cases but equally have ligitimately discussed new strains and their potency and that fact Ireland is nowhere near where it needs to be to offer satisfactory protection to its population. I don't need to read the daily mail (which I don't), I listen to the science, nothing more nothing less. As an aside and slightly off topic, you are aware Hospitals remain crippled by the cyber attack and are in no position to handle any rise in cases, perhaps this too has escaped you.

We've opened Society and that's fantastic, does it really offend you for others to have an opinion whilst expressing caution and concern, if it does, I'm truly sorry.

Potential requirement for booster shots has been openly discussed by numerous experts both here and worldwide, potential being the operative word

El_Duderino 09 · 11-06-2021 8:02pm

Beasty wrote: »

I suspect it's pretty inevitable this will grab hold here, but with the vast majority of the vulnerable already vaccinated and the vaccination programme continuing to expand I would hope that although numbers will likely increase the numbers in hospital and intensive care will remain very manageable.

What I'm wondering is how NPHET will react to increasing infection numbers with little impact on those who are badly affected. Will they try and push back some of the opening up dates or will they take the view that it's not necessary given how much our population is already protected. I do have a concern that they will not need much to start looking to hold back some of the proposals to open up.

The UK is pretty cavalier and they're going to delay their reopening. Granted they're at a different stage of the vaccine rollout, Delta wave and reopening stage.

But you know how NPHET will react. If its necessary to reschedule the reopening, that's what they'll do. They certainly won't speed up reopening based on this new variant. But asking surprised or acting like the outcome is totally unknowable or unreasonable, is silly.

TefalBrain · 11-06-2021 8:04pm

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

Dempo1 · 11-06-2021 8:10pm

TefalBrain wrote: »

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

Unfortunately there is definitely a cohort on this site who take instant offence at debate and opinions that differ from theirs. Some pretty shocking stuff has been posted, from Doctor Death to the Pandemic a hoax.

Unfortunately civil debate descends into very personal attacks and outlandish claims so I predict this thread won't survive to long. It took less than 2 posts by me for the sillyness to start, but its going to be a beautiful weekend and that will be my focus, whilst taking reasonable precautions (even that will offend some)

Mister Vain · 11-06-2021 8:13pm

I'm more concerned about ongoing future mutations and possible variants that haven't been discovered yet.

Dempo1 · 11-06-2021 8:14pm

Mister Vain wrote: »

I'm more concerned ongoing future mutations and possible variants that haven't been discovered yet.

Me too but don't say it too loud, you'll be accused of being a lockdown merchant

Feria40 · 11-06-2021 8:16pm

Clearly its more transmissible but lads don't wet the bed yet.

FT a few days ago:

"Health secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons that out of 12,383 cases of the Delta variant recorded until June 3, 126 were in hospital, or just 1 per cent. Of those admitted, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 had received one jab and just three had had both doses. “The jabs are working,” Hancock said"

Mehole says 70% of the adult population will be Fully vacinated by end of July.

For sure exercise some caution but on the whole chill the beans.

Beasty · 11-06-2021 8:16pm

Mister Vain wrote: »

I'm more concerned about ongoing future mutations and possible variants that haven't been discovered yet.

There are already thousand of variants/mutations. Only a handful are of concern. In all cases the vaccines are expected to offer some protection against both catching the variant, but also the severity of any symptoms

Micky 32 · 11-06-2021 8:23pm

Dempo1 wrote: »

Me too but don't say it too loud, you'll be accused of being a lockdown merchant

Ok. You think a variant is going to come along that will evade vaccines( there’s no evidence there will). So i’m curious, what would your suggestion be to do going forward?

astrofool · 11-06-2021 8:27pm

I don't think this will be an issue for those getting vaccinated, as the disease becomes endemic, it will become an issue for those who aren't getting jabbed, especially that small% of older groups that didn't get it. I'd feel worst for those who have immune system disorders who don't really have a way out.

Cuddlesworth · 11-06-2021 8:35pm

Feria40 wrote: »

Clearly its more transmissible but lads don't wet the bed yet.

FT a few days ago:

"Health secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons that out of 12,383 cases of the Delta variant recorded until June 3, 126 were in hospital, or just 1 per cent. Of those admitted, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 had received one jab and just three had had both doses. “The jabs are working,” Hancock said"

Mehole says 70% of the adult population will be Fully vacinated by end of July.

For sure exercise some caution but on the whole chill the beans.

Right, so 1% ends up in Hospital, and roughly 2% of that ends up in hospital assuming full population vaccination(.02%).

Exponential growth means a possible 13,000 people in hospital. Ignoring the real concern of another stronger vaccine resistant variant and that exponential growth will overtake vaccine rollout.

Going to be honest with you, if those numbers are true then England is heading for lockdown 3.

El_Duderino 09 · 11-06-2021 8:35pm

TefalBrain wrote: »

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

Yeah absolutely. The ones who act surprised at how nphet will react, are itching to play the victim when they delay reopening. Not sure if I'd go as far as saying they're excited about it, but they're certainly looking forward playing the poor victim.

Dempo1 · 11-06-2021 8:36pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

Ok. You think a variant is going to come along that will evade vaccines( there’s no evidence there will). So i’m curious, what would your suggestion be to do going forward?

I'm not saying there is evidence (Yet) , just discussions, concerns regularly between epidemiologists, immunologists, experts etc. Of course Vacinnes can and are tweaked but it does raise (and only raise) the possibility of boosters being required. I don't claim to have the answers so can't make a suggestion.

It's been an horrendous 14 months, I'm also high risk and believe me, lockdown was no fun. Society will have to live with Covid and variants, what I hope for is lesson's being learned and yes that we all have to be cautious (not cocooned) which i don't believe to be unreasonable.

El_Duderino 09 · 11-06-2021 8:42pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Right, so 1% ends up in Hospital, and roughly 2% of that ends up in hospital assuming full population vaccination(.02%).

Exponential growth means a possible 13,000 people in hospital. Ignoring the real concern of another stronger vaccine resistant variant and that exponential growth will overtake vaccine rollout.

Going to be honest with you, if those numbers are true then England is heading for lockdown 3.

Given that it's doubling about every week, and he spike in hospitalizations have typically been about about a month behind the spike in cases. I think you can safely say that the stats used above are absolute bollocks. Will the spike in hospitalisation be high enough to cause a serious problem? Who knows (pretending to know is a sure sign of someone thinking with their heart, not their head).

Since when is Matt Hancock a source for good data? A small bit of objectivity would go a long way.

Feria40 · 11-06-2021 8:58pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Right, so 1% ends up in Hospital, and roughly 2% of that ends up in hospital assuming full population vaccination(.02%).

Exponential growth means a possible 13,000 people in hospital. Ignoring the real concern of another stronger vaccine resistant variant and that exponential growth will overtake vaccine rollout.

Going to be honest with you, if those numbers are true then England is heading for lockdown 3.

I guess we can only wait and see.

Hint, my money is on a slight delay to the reopening plan (noting that everything is pretty much open anyway).

Nothing more.

There may be a sort of a 3rd wave but it will be of infections. Not deaths. Just IMO

JTMan · 11-06-2021 9:02pm

The FT are reporting here (paywall) on how the Delta variant is spreading in UK schools.

Two weeks before the start of the summer half-term holiday, Haslingden High School in Rossendale, north-west England, recorded almost no cases of Covid-19.

That Monday, two students tested positive for the virus and were sent home. Two became ten. By Friday, there were 35 cases reported in the school. Within a week the number had grown to 70.

In Manchester, Samantha Offord headteacher at Birchfields primary school, is concerned “It’s really been awful,” she said

“It’s not so much the learning, it’s their attitude to learning, their resilience [that is affected],” Offord said. “We’re just feeling like we’ve got on top of it and then you send 90 children home.”

I suspect that the UK will not wait until term starts again to vaccinate those aged 12-15. I suspect that the UK will do this age group in advance of term restarting and then 5-11 year olds in school next term.

Hopefully we will have a clear plan on the vaccination of 12-15 year olds in Ireland soon too.

normanoffside · 11-06-2021 9:07pm

wadacrack wrote: »

Look what happened in India with this variant.

Yes, Look. A quick wave that was over quickly. Their infection rates are now lower than the UK

Fils · 11-06-2021 9:20pm

Wait till China brings out their variant.

Mister Vain · 11-06-2021 9:54pm

Fils wrote: »

Wait till China brings out their variant.

Or North Korea.

Beasty · 11-06-2021 9:59pm

Fils wrote: »

Wait till China brings out their variant.

Hang on

They are already in the table - #1

The Delta variant

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