Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

MacronvFrugals · 02-06-2021 04:47PM

PropQueries wrote: »

So those jobs are actually fully gone?

Yes they are to an MNC, its not much <80 but its less prime office space and a killer for the local cafes etc

These staff actually occupied 2 sets of offices during the 5 day week, no longer needed now.

PropQueries · 02-06-2021 04:52PM

L1011 wrote: »

You were originally saying July, you're now saying August - not July/August.

The end of August is eight weeks away. The things you think are going to have an influence will take months to years to happen; if they ever happen and if they ever have an impact.

That's where you're spot on with your analysis into my thinking. I believe this has been in train since mid 2018. So, in my thinking we're already c. two years in.

L1011 · 02-06-2021 04:57PM

PropQueries wrote: »

That's where you're spot on with your analysis into my thinking. I believe this has been in train since mid 2018. So, in my thinking we're already c. two years in.

Or more realistically, we're two years in to you expecting an imminent and massive crash based on very strange bases, and it hasn't happened.

PropQueries · 02-06-2021 05:05PM

L1011 wrote: »

Or more realistically, we're two years in to you expecting an imminent and massive crash based on very strange bases, and it hasn't happened.

Not at all. The potential supply hasn't been significantly reduced from what I understand. A lot of the supply that was ready to enter the market pre-covid is still there and has been added to significantly over the past 12 months. In my mind, it's just a matter of pin pointing when it will all be released into the market.

L1011 · 02-06-2021 05:16PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all. The potential supply hasn't been significantly reduced from what I understand. A lot of the supply that was ready to enter the market pre-covid is still there and has been added to significantly over the past 12 months. In my mind, it's just a matter of pin pointing when it will all be released into the market.

And despite being wholly unable to identify where this supply is, you believe it will all appear on the market within eight weeks?

PropQueries · 02-06-2021 05:17PM

L1011 wrote: »

And despite being wholly unable to identify where this supply is, you believe it will all appear on the market within eight weeks?

Yes, by the end of August, I believe it should start to become evident.

L1011 · 02-06-2021 05:22PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, by the end of August, I believe it should start to become evident.

Which is weeks later than you originally claimed, of course.

And when it doesn't, what will you do?

PropQueries · 02-06-2021 05:26PM

L1011 wrote: »

Which is weeks later than you originally claimed, of course.

And when it doesn't, what will you do?

I don't believe I'll be wrong. But in the off chance I am, I'll have another look at the signals.

L1011 · 02-06-2021 05:27PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe I'll be wrong. But in the off chance I am, I'll have another look at the signals.

...and presumably just give another date to be missed.

Timing belt · 02-06-2021 05:28PM

L1011 wrote: »

And despite being wholly unable to identify where this supply is, you believe it will all appear on the market within eight weeks?

It's behind you!! Oh wait.. The magic supply that props claims will come on the market is based on probate (Already proven in previous posts that there is no major backlog) and the magic properties that the funds bought from the 08'crash that they have been sitting on and will now dump on the market.... the only problem is that the bought very little property but a lot of debt. And this debt won't provide the magic supply....

PropQueries · 02-06-2021 05:29PM

L1011 wrote: »

...and presumably just give another date to be missed.

Another date to be missed? I haven't been proven wrong yet. It's the start of June...

L1011 · 02-06-2021 05:33PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Another date to be missed? I haven't been proven wrong yet. It's the start of June...

You've pushed July to late August. I'm certain the push to a date beyond late August will happen within weeks.

You cannot prove the apparent supply exists. You cannot give solid reasons as to why anyone sitting on supply would suddenly throw it all to market.

PropQueries · 02-06-2021 05:34PM

Timing belt wrote: »

It's behind you!! Oh wait.. The magic supply that props claims will come on the market is based on probate (Already proven in previous posts that there is no major backlog) and the magic properties that the funds bought from the 08'crash that they have been sitting on and will now dump on the market.... the only problem is that the bought very little property but a lot of debt. And this debt won't provide the magic supply....

During the Celtic Tiger years, nearly every town in Ireland had several different developers building on several different sites around those same towns. How many of these sites do those developers still own?

If they don't own them, who does?

PropQueries · 02-06-2021 05:37PM

L1011 wrote: »

You've pushed July to late August. I'm certain the push to a date beyond late August will happen within weeks.

You cannot prove the apparent supply exists. You cannot give solid reasons as to why anyone sitting on supply would suddenly throw it all to market.

Still haven't, as you assert, been proven wrong yet though.

PommieBast · 02-06-2021 05:42PM

awec wrote: »

Last year Google pulled out of one of the big building in the docks. Total doom, according to the property forum on boards, that was the end of it all, offices were sooo 2019. Building has since been let by TikTok.

From memory TikTok got what is effectively a pretty steep discount though.

yagan · 02-06-2021 05:49PM

PommieBast wrote: »

From memory TikTok got what is effectively a pretty steep discount though.

And how long will TikTok last before the next social media fad replace it?

Easy come, easy go. Google on the other hand has become a verb.

andrewfaulk · 02-06-2021 05:57PM

optogirl wrote: »

West Cabra, East Cabra...it's much of a muchness in fairness

Only about 30-50k in house price in the difference..
All my life long Cabra neighbours say Cabra East was always more settled of the two but both are fine..

The split is nowhere near as pronounced as Finglas for example

Balluba · 02-06-2021 06:01PM

L1011 wrote: »

You've pushed July to late August. I'm certain the push to a date beyond late August will happen within weeks.

You cannot prove the apparent supply exists. You cannot give solid reasons as to why anyone sitting on supply would suddenly throw it all to market.

L1011 what do you think will happen to the property market here by the end of August??

yagan · 02-06-2021 06:07PM

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of these sites do those developers still own?

If they don't own them, who does?

I know of one development of about 15 houses at foundation level that the landowner dug up and returned it to farming!

L1011 · 02-06-2021 06:13PM

Balluba wrote: »

L1011 what do you think will happen to the property market here by the end of August??

Its short time away in summer, stuff gets quieter. Unlikely to be much change either direction

Hubertj · 02-06-2021 06:18PM

L1011 wrote: »

Its short time away in summer, stuff gets quieter. Unlikely to be much change either direction

So you’re saying prices won’t fall 50%-75% by July-august? Oh well. Maybe September

yagan · 02-06-2021 06:18PM

I heard the new property taxes being discussed on various radio shows earlier and the consensus was that it will only really affect the over €500.000 mark, so I can imagine properties for sale just above that amount may have a harder time selling which may put more pressure on the top end.

So FTB with their ratio limits dictate price floor and future property taxes will temper the top end. Interesting dynamics ahead.

kippy · 02-06-2021 06:23PM

yagan wrote: »

I heard the new property taxes being discussed on various radio shows earlier and the consensus was that it will only really affect the over €500.000 mark, so I can imagine properties for sale just above that amount may have a harder time selling which may put more pressure on the top end.

So FTB with their ratio limits dictate price floor and future property taxes will temper the top end. Interesting dynamics ahead.

Property tax doesn't currently and won't influence purchasing trends......

Balluba · 02-06-2021 06:25PM

yagan wrote: »

I heard the new property taxes being discussed on various radio shows earlier and the consensus was that it will only really affect the over €500.000 mark, so I can imagine properties for sale just above that amount may have a harder time selling which may put more pressure on the top end.

So FTB with their ratio limits dictate price floor and future property taxes will temper the top end. Interesting dynamics ahead.

Actually I think it might only affect houses over €600,000

Hubertj · 02-06-2021 06:30PM

Balluba wrote: »

Actually I think it might only affect houses over €600,000

As I understand it the rates will be reviewed every 4 years so it would be 2022, then 2026? I think it will be 12+ years before property tax gets to a rate which will have a significant impact.

Balluba · 02-06-2021 06:37PM

L1011 wrote: »

Its short time away in summer, stuff gets quieter. Unlikely to be much change either direction

I am not convinced yet that things will get quieter. I am surprised to see 4 houses put up just now on Daft .ie one asking 7.2 million, another 6.45 million, another 5million and 2.45 million. All houses are in Dublin.

yagan · 02-06-2021 06:42PM

kippy wrote: »

Property tax doesn't currently and won't influence purchasing trends......

You think?

For anyone making a fore ever home purchase what property taxes may be due in the future is a serious concern.

There seems to be broad support for the measure as the majority of home owners aren't affected so the thinking will be the over €600.000 valued home owners will be easy pickings politically.

When I was living in Oz I could see that downsizing was a serious business as property taxes which could be absorbed while working but were a lot more onerous to retirees who'd rather sell the house, buy a RV and drive around Oz on their pension until their eyesight failed.

It's amazing how many measures resisted for long are now happening simply with the threat of SF being in government.

kippy · 02-06-2021 06:47PM

yagan wrote: »

You think?

For anyone making a fore ever home purchase what property taxes may be due in the future is a serious concern.

There seems to be broad support for the measure as the majority of home owners aren't affected so the thinking will be the over €600.000 valued home owners will be easy pickings politically.

When I was living in Oz I could see that downsizing was a serious business as property taxes which could be absorbed while working but were a lot more onerous to retirees who'd rather sell the house, buy a RV and drive around Oz on their pension until their eyesight failed.

It's amazing how many measures resisted for long are now happening simply with the threat of SF being in government.

Yeah I do think. Property tax hasn't and won't come into the thinking of those wishing to buy/sell for the medium to long term unless drastic increases and/or changes to terms are forthcoming which don't appear to be the case.

Welcome to politics.....although I didn't think property tax was something SF wanted at all. They were happier see the money come from the magic money tree.

Flinty997 · 02-06-2021 06:52PM

yagan wrote: »

...
It's amazing how many measures resisted for long are now happening simply with the threat of SF being in government.

Didn't have any effect last time.

yagan · 02-06-2021 06:56PM

Flinty997 wrote: »

Didn't have any effect last time.

I can't remember but what was their vote growth between 2011 and 2016?

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting