Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Flinty997

yagan wrote: »

...
When I was living in Oz I could see that downsizing was a serious business as property taxes which could be absorbed while working but were a lot more onerous to retirees who'd rather sell the house, buy a RV and drive around Oz on their pension until their eyesight failed. ....

Very different in a RV in OZ than Ireland.
Also there is nothing to downsize too.

By that I mean people won't move as easy as you think. because they can't.

DataDude

Balluba wrote: »

I am not convinced yet that things will get quieter. I am surprised to see 4 houses put up just now on Daft .ie one asking 7.2 million, another 6.45 million, another 5million and 2.45 million. All houses are in Dublin.

For what it's worth, I do a weekly check on PPR for houses of interest (and a couple of aspiration) in the €1m+ zone. Last couple weeks has been a noticeable cooling off where most have gone below asking (as was case in 2019 and 2020). It's not a massive amount of properties nor indicative of the wider market, but it's interesting after a period when it felt like everything was going for wayyy above asking. Hopefully the sign of the "top" of the market rejecting any major upward moves.
For example, the three most notable this week.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-brookfield-mews-brookfield-terrace-blackrock-dublin/4474366

Asking €1.2m
Sold €1.15m (they paid €1.1m for it new in 2016 )

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/alderley-adelaide-road-glenageary-co-dublin-a96-r7w3/4370604

Asking €2.65m
Sold €2.42m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/merrion-view-lodge-merrion-view-avenue-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-y5r7/4448947

Asking €1.65m
Sold €1.5m

awec

PommieBast wrote: »

From memory TikTok got what is effectively a pretty steep discount though.

They got a bit of a discount, but they still let out some major office space.

yagan wrote: »

And how long will TikTok last before the next social media fad replace it?

Easy come, easy go. Google on the other hand has become a verb.

Sure, we can look at Google instead. Yesterday:

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/google-submits-plan-for-10-storey-city-extension-as-itbets-their-staff-will-return-to-the-office-40489559.html

Google will today submit a planning application for a major 10-storey extension and redevelopment of the former Treasury building on Grand Canal Street, Dublin.

Ace2007

DataDude wrote: »

For what it's worth, I do a weekly check on PPR for houses of interest (and a couple of aspiration) in the €1m+ zone. Last couple weeks has been a noticeable cooling off where most have gone below asking (as was case in 2019 and 2020). It's not a massive amount of properties nor indicative of the wider market, but it's interesting after a period when it felt like everything was going for wayyy above asking. Hopefully the sign of the "top" of the market rejecting any major upward moves.
For example, the three most notable this week.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-brookfield-mews-brookfield-terrace-blackrock-dublin/4474366

Asking €1.2m
Sold €1.15m (they paid €1.1m for it new in 2016 )

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/alderley-adelaide-road-glenageary-co-dublin-a96-r7w3/4370604

Asking €2.65m
Sold €2.42m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/merrion-view-lodge-merrion-view-avenue-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-y5r7/4448947

Asking €1.65m
Sold €1.5m

How do you filter by 1m homes? Or are you only looking in certain areas?

Eclectic Econometrics

DataDude wrote: »

For what it's worth, I do a weekly check on PPR for houses of interest (and a couple of aspiration) in the €1m+ zone. Last couple weeks has been a noticeable cooling off where most have gone below asking (as was case in 2019 and 2020). It's not a massive amount of properties nor indicative of the wider market, but it's interesting after a period when it felt like everything was going for wayyy above asking. Hopefully the sign of the "top" of the market rejecting any major upward moves.
For example, the three most notable this week.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-brookfield-mews-brookfield-terrace-blackrock-dublin/4474366

Asking €1.2m
Sold €1.15m (they paid €1.1m for it new in 2016 )

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/alderley-adelaide-road-glenageary-co-dublin-a96-r7w3/4370604

Asking €2.65m
Sold €2.42m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/merrion-view-lodge-merrion-view-avenue-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-y5r7/4448947

Asking €1.65m
Sold €1.5m

Did you see many houses hit their asking in the last two quarters of 2020 and first of 2021? Reason I ask is because, as I said before, from my anecdotal checking of asking Vs achieved, in the price bracket you mention, there was usually downward negotiation. This was especially pronounced outside the m50, despite all the WFH is the future talk.

DataDude

Ace2007 wrote: »

How do you filter by 1m homes? Or are you only looking in certain areas?

Just download the PPR every Wednesday into excel. Compare to previous week to identify new entries. Filter by price. There’s probably ‘only’ 10-25 sold in any given week these days. I watch myhome wayyy to closely so I’ll usually recognise the names of any of the ones we considered

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Just download the PPR every Wednesday into excel. Compare to previous week to identify new entries. Filter by price. There’s probably ‘only’ 10-25 sold in any given week these days. I watch myhome wayyy to closely so I’ll usually recognise the names of any of the ones we considered

Did you ever follow up on those ones you liked in Greystones that you linked before?

DataDude

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

Did you see many houses hit their asking in the last two quarters of 2020 and first of 2021? Reason I ask is because, as I said before, from my anecdotal checking of asking Vs achieved, in the price bracket you mention, there was usually downward negotiation. This was especially pronounced outside the m50, despite all the WFH is the future talk.

For sure. Not every house but it wasn’t uncommon in November - April for them to reach asking or often blow through (some still went below of course).

In 2019 and 2020 it was absolutely standard that you’d knock 5-10% of the asking. Was quite rare to see one make it.

Very early days and not a statistically representative sample (plus some houses hit PPR within a couple weeks of selling, others take months), but the last month or so have felt a bit closer to 2019/2020 again in terms of asking vs realised.

I’m taking some hope from it, although perhaps misguided!

DataDude

awec wrote: »

Did you ever follow up on those ones you liked in Greystones that you linked before?

Nope - once the third one came up at 740 they all went sale agreed in fairly quick succession. Would assume they all went in and around that price (very good value IMO).

Two nice houses gone up in Greystones in last while which we might view. EAs involved both had one of the Glendale houses so will see if I can extract any info in terms of sale price or the inside track on why 3 sold in quick succession. They’re usually fairly coy though these days in case one falls through!

enricoh

The ban on evictions to be further extended.

I wonder will landlords get a chance to sell up before sinn Fein take the reins?!

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2021/0602/1225588-housing-dail/

Ozark707

DataDude wrote: »

For what it's worth, I do a weekly check on PPR for houses of interest (and a couple of aspiration) in the €1m+ zone. Last couple weeks has been a noticeable cooling off where most have gone below asking (as was case in 2019 and 2020). It's not a massive amount of properties nor indicative of the wider market, but it's interesting after a period when it felt like everything was going for wayyy above asking. Hopefully the sign of the "top" of the market rejecting any major upward moves.
For example, the three most notable this week.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-brookfield-mews-brookfield-terrace-blackrock-dublin/4474366

Asking €1.2m
Sold €1.15m (they paid €1.1m for it new in 2016 )

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/alderley-adelaide-road-glenageary-co-dublin-a96-r7w3/4370604

Asking €2.65m
Sold €2.42m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/merrion-view-lodge-merrion-view-avenue-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-y5r7/4448947

Asking €1.65m
Sold €1.5m

https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/dublin-south-property-price-drops

Quite a few drops reported here in the higher bracket recently. Would chime with what you reported

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

For what it's worth, I do a weekly check on PPR for houses of interest (and a couple of aspiration) in the €1m+ zone. Last couple weeks has been a noticeable cooling off where most have gone below asking (as was case in 2019 and 2020). It's not a massive amount of properties nor indicative of the wider market, but it's interesting after a period when it felt like everything was going for wayyy above asking. Hopefully the sign of the "top" of the market rejecting any major upward moves.
For example, the three most notable this week.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-brookfield-mews-brookfield-terrace-blackrock-dublin/4474366

Asking €1.2m
Sold €1.15m (they paid €1.1m for it new in 2016 )

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/alderley-adelaide-road-glenageary-co-dublin-a96-r7w3/4370604

Asking €2.65m
Sold €2.42m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/merrion-view-lodge-merrion-view-avenue-ballsbridge-dublin-4-d04-y5r7/4448947

Asking €1.65m
Sold €1.5m

Not familiar with the ballsbridge House but the one in Blackrock they are strange houses in as bad a location as you can have that close to the village, I can't believe that has sold for that money twice nice,

The glenageary house is lovely they did a smashing job but the price was always aspirational, they bought that not that long ago for 900k or so and I doubt they put a million into it so it was a good return, I didn't ever see if getting asking personally.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

Not familiar with the ballsbridge House but the one in Blackrock they are strange houses in as bad a location as you can have that close to the village, I can't believe that has sold for that money twice nice,

The glenageary house is lovely they did a smashing job but the price was always aspirational, they bought that not that long ago for 900k or so and I doubt they put a million into it so it was a good return, I didn't ever see if getting asking personally.

Couldn’t agree more on that Blackrock house. Horrendous location. How they sold 4 of them for around 1-1.1m in 2016 is beyond me. Might be the only houses in the country that didn’t appreciate in that time.

Glenageary one well beyond my area of expertise in terms of price, but I thought it looked decent value. Haven’t seen many houses of that quality for that price. If I had 2.5 to spend. That’s the house I’d have bought.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Couldn’t agree more on that Blackrock house. Horrendous location. How they sold 4 of them for around 1-1.1m in 2016 is beyond me. Might be the only houses in the country that didn’t appreciate in that time.

Glenageary one well beyond my area of expertise in terms of price, but I thought it looked decent value. Haven’t seen many houses of that quality for that price. If I had 2.5 to spend. That’s the house I’d have bought.

Yes I suppose my thinking was coloured in that I could have bought it for 900k 18 months previous so to me 2.65 seemed gaga but its a lovely house for sure!

Amadan Dubh

https://www.thejournal.ie/esri-borrowing-housing-5456342-Jun2021/

THE GOVERNMENT COULD help to solve the housing crisis if it borrowed an additional €4 billion to €7 billion a year, the ESRI has said in a new report.

The Economic & Social Research Institute said that Ireland faces another ten years of rising prices and rents without a ‘significant’ amount of spending in building homes.

The report, published today, says that Covid-19 has had a hugely negative impact on the supply of homes in Ireland, and notes that a ‘significant’ increase in publicly funded housing is needed to bridge the gap between the actual supply levels and the demand for housing.

It noted that the Irish economy is forecast to do well post-Covid, and given the low cost of sovereign debt, borrowing money for housing could be both ‘prudent and sustainable’.

Wow, I didn't think the ESRI would say that the government could borrow a lot more in order to do something. Maybe the government will use the magic money tree that apparently doesn't exist but only when people talk of SF's housing policy. This report is lubricating the wheels of policy justification should they go down the McWilliams route of undertaking significant borrowing to get houses built.

awec

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/esri-borrowing-housing-5456342-Jun2021/



Wow, I didn't think the ESRI would say that the government could borrow a lot more in order to do something. Maybe the government will use the magic money tree that apparently doesn't exist but only when people talk of SF's housing policy. This report is lubricating the wheels of policy justification should they go down the McWilliams route of undertaking significant borrowing to get houses built.

It's not that surprising, the IMF said something similar last month (Ireland should spend more and can fund it by borrowing in the short term).

Villa05

kippy wrote:

Welcome to politics.....although I didn't think property tax was something SF wanted at all. They were happier see the money come from the magic money tree.

One suspects that the magic money trees will be well harvested by the time fffg relinquish power

Amadan Dubh wrote:

Wow, I didn't think the ESRI would say that the government could borrow a lot more in order to do something. Maybe the government will use the magic money tree that apparently doesn't exist but only when people talk of SF's housing policy. This report is lubricating the wheels of policy justification should they go down the McWilliams route of undertaking significant borrowing to get houses built.

With any spend you have to consider the alternative to not spending and that is expensive long term leasing. Borrowing to build at 0% while owning much of the land required is considerably cheaper and adds to supply

Ace2007

I’ve said it before but will say it again - the government could build 100,000 houses in green fields out past the airport, but that’s not going to solve the heat in the market. It will give low income families a home and perhaps reduce homelessness.

But is that going to affect the bidding on 500k+ houses going for higher amounts? No it’s not.

Is the government going to build enough
Masses affordable houses in Blackrock? Or in SCD suburbs? What about malahide, portmarnock, clontarf, Drumcondra glasnevin - the list in endless where houses prices are through the roof. There are already areas in dublin where houses are cheap but people say no because of a social attitude associated with such areas.

People think that the amount of houses available is the issue , but it’s more where the houses are located thats the problem - supply not available where people want.

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

I’ve said it before but will say it again - the government could build 100,000 houses in green fields out past the airport, but that’s not going to solve the heat in the market. It will give low income families a home and perhaps reduce homelessness.

But is that going to affect the bidding on 500k+ houses going for higher amounts? No it’s not..

100,000 new houses in Dublin would absolutely take the heat out of the market.
You are deluded to think that it wont.

There will still be a premium for central or established areas, but for people who are outbid at those premium prices, they now have options elsewhere but still close enough to Dublin. It depends how far is "out past the airport" of course

AlmightyCushion

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/esri-borrowing-housing-5456342-Jun2021/



Wow, I didn't think the ESRI would say that the government could borrow a lot more in order to do something. Maybe the government will use the magic money tree that apparently doesn't exist but only when people talk of SF's housing policy. This report is lubricating the wheels of policy justification should they go down the McWilliams route of undertaking significant borrowing to get houses built.

Before Covid, the state's ability to borrow was limited due to the fiscal compact. The fiscal compact has been suspended for Covid related spending. I would hope that the fiscal compact would get altered to allow states to borrow for housing and infrastructure post Covid but we will see what happens.

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

One suspects that the magic money trees will be well harvested by the time fffg relinquish power




With any spend you have to consider the alternative to not spending and that is expensive long term leasing. Borrowing to build at 0% while owning much of the land required is considerably cheaper and adds to supply

I have no real hangups about the government borrowing to build rather than the present leasing structure. However it has a few issues. I presume that much of this will be social and affordable houses. Will these turn into getto's and give us the new Ballymun's, Knocknaheenie's and Moyross's of this generation. In the affordable element of the housing will you be gifting people a 1-200k site. It very hard to police.

If a young Guard or Nurse buys a 1 or 2 bed apartment and then in 6-10 years time gets married or moves down the country, or maybe even a person who has no option but to move because of there work how do you manage the sale. Any site recovery costs has implications on these people. How do you manage these people from renting these houses if buying or moving elsewhere.

I do not think it will add to supply either. There is a finite limit on the amount of construction workers in the country. At present we are at full employment and we build 20k houses last year and this year it may only be 16k. Even if workers move from commercial to residential construction will we get to 30k units per year.

Aside from all that it would take 2-3 years before a house was build

Jmc25

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/esri-borrowing-housing-5456342-Jun2021/



Wow, I didn't think the ESRI would say that the government could borrow a lot more in order to do something. Maybe the government will use the magic money tree that apparently doesn't exist but only when people talk of SF's housing policy. This report is lubricating the wheels of policy justification should they go down the McWilliams route of undertaking significant borrowing to get houses built.

I think the tide has turned somewhat on the era of balanced budgets no matter what the social cost. If you look at the warning issued by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council recently - 5/6 years ago that would have been a major talking point and many broadsheet column inches would have been devoted to telling us which state service is due for a good snipping. This time however, it was more or less ignored, which tells us a good deal about the change of attitude in terms of state spending.

Borrowing to build houses would be a very solid investment in my opinion, I just can't really believe we're at the point where the ESRI is saying it.

Ozark707

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Before Covid, the state's ability to borrow was limited due to the fiscal compact. The fiscal compact has been suspended for Covid related spending. I would hope that the fiscal compact would get altered to allow states to borrow for housing and infrastructure post Covid but we will see what happens.

It will come down to politics here. Unless the government can vastly increase the housing stock in some way that results in more supply for buyers and cheaper rent then they can kiss goodbye to the next election. If they have fiscal constraints applied then I can see a scenario where spending is cut in some areas (e.g. road building) and diverted to housing.

timmyntc

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have no real hangups about the government borrowing to build rather than the present leasing structure. However it has a few issues. I presume that much of this will be social and affordable houses. Will these turn into getto's and give us the new Ballymun's, Knocknaheenie's and Moyross's of this generation. In the affordable element of the housing will you be gifting people a 1-200k site. It very hard to police.

If a young Guard or Nurse buys a 1 or 2 bed apartment and then in 6-10 years time gets married or moves down the country, or maybe even a person who has no option but to move because of there work how do you manage the sale. Any site recovery costs has implications on these people. How do you manage these people from renting these houses if buying or moving elsewhere.

I do not think it will add to supply either. There is a finite limit on the amount of construction workers in the country. At present we are at full employment and we build 30k houses last year and this year it may only be 16k. Even if workers move from commercial to residential construction will we get to 30k units per year.

Aside from all that it would take 2-3 years before a house was build

The state has long moved on from building "ghettos" like Ballymun or Moyross.
It should be mix of social, affordable sale, and cost rental. Gifting people a site? You can sell them a leasehold on the property with the stipulation it cannot be resold above that value + inflation. So no speculation or no "gifting" of an expensive site.

You have a point with our construction capacity - there is definitely a cap there on how much we can build with our current labour availability. You would think commercial space will be in less demand post pandemic and that might free up some more builders. Even 30k+ a year would be a big boost - I think 2019 figure was 21k and 2020 was 20k new completions also.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

100,000 new houses in Dublin would absolutely take the heat out of the market.
You are deluded to think that it wont.

There will still be a premium for central or established areas, but for people who are outbid at those premium prices, they now have options elsewhere but still close enough to Dublin. It depends how far is "out past the airport" of course

But there are already options elsewhere, but folk don't want to buy in those areas. you seem to think that they are magically going to all say, ah well can't buy here, don't want to live in Finglas/Cabra even though that's a lot closer to city with established transport links, lets' move to past Dublin Airport.

If you work on southside how does living out by the Airport help any more than moving to Maynooth on Naas? It doesn't but because it's still Dublin, you are going to justify it as being ok - even though we all know they won't move out.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

The state has long moved on from building "ghettos" like Ballymun or Moyross.
It should be mix of social, affordable sale, and cost rental. Gifting people a site? You can sell them a leasehold on the property with the stipulation it cannot be resold above that value + inflation. So no speculation or no "gifting" of an expensive site.

So you would basically be stuck in the area and would not be able to trade up to an "established area" like you perhaps wanted to.... right would love to see that being sold to people. Your ideas get better and better.

Villa05

Ace2007 wrote:

I’ve said it before but will say it again - the government could build 100,000 houses in green fields out past the airport, but that’s not going to solve the heat in the market. It will give low income families a home and perhaps reduce homelessness.

This will help low income families who will still be spending a reasnoble amount for these properties thereby reducing the overall cost

Ace2007 wrote:

But is that going to affect the bidding on 500k+ houses going for higher amounts? No it’s not.

As current policy is to house low/no income people in ever increasing 500k + properties, your argument has no legs so continually saying it will not make it true

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

So you would basically be stuck in the area and would not be able to trade up to an "established area" like you perhaps wanted to.... right would love to see that being sold to people. Your ideas get better and better.

If you buy a house to "get on the ladder" you run the risk of ending up in negative equity and not able to sell at all.
Also keep in mind these affordable properties would be affordable - so the money you save in the sale price & mortgage can be used to buy your next property.

And finally, if prices are to rise then the starter house you bought initially might have risen, but all other prices would rise too. So you dont end up any better off really.

JimmyVik

timmyntc wrote: »

If you buy a house to "get on the ladder" you run the risk of ending up in negative equity and not able to sell at all.
Also keep in mind these affordable properties would be affordable - so the money you save in the sale price & mortgage can be used to buy your next property.

And finally, if prices are to rise then the starter house you bought initially might have risen, but all other prices would rise too. So you dont end up any better off really.

Tell that to the person who bought 5 or 6 years ago and had a static mortgage in the meantime, while the person next door saw their rent go up and up.

jill_valentine

Ace2007 wrote: »

I’ve said it before but will say it again - the government could build 100,000 houses in green fields out past the airport, but that’s not going to solve the heat in the market. It will give low income families a home and perhaps reduce homelessness.

But is that going to affect the bidding on 500k+ houses going for higher amounts? No it’s not.

Is the government going to build enough
Masses affordable houses in Blackrock? Or in SCD suburbs? What about malahide, portmarnock, clontarf, Drumcondra glasnevin - the list in endless where houses prices are through the roof. There are already areas in dublin where houses are cheap but people say no because of a social attitude associated with such areas.

People think that the amount of houses available is the issue , but it’s more where the houses are located thats the problem - supply not available where people want.

I would take a house out past the airport any day of the week when my current alternative is a house in Offaly.