Belarus forces Ryanair plane to divert NO GENERAL POLITICS MOD WARNING POST 1

AndyBoBandy · 26-05-2021 12:31pm

Both Vilnius & Kaunas can be approached staying well clear of populated areas. Theres also a NATO airbase just outside Siauliai about another 15 minutes flight time beyond Vilnius/Kaunas, so a friendly escort could have been there very quickly too.

*as it's A&A, there's an airshow in Siaulaii that's supposed to be fairly epic.... of course I was driving out of town the morning of the show, but passed thousands upon thousands of folks along all the main roads watching it.... got a few very loud passes, but couldn't see what they were they were so quick...

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 26-05-2021 12:34pm

Everything about it is a threat to safety. Civil aviation systems are usually above and beyond anything like this.

There’s a level of trust required to ensure everything works. You shouldn’t have to second guess ground instructions and, despite everything, there was no real reason to expect anything like that from Belarus.

Even countries with fairly odd regimes are usually very cooperative and sensible with civil aviation norms.

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 26-05-2021 12:39pm

I wonder did the Belarusian ATC sound “odd”.
I just can’t imagine anyone in ATC agreeing to doing something like this, so I wonder was the message actually coming from some military personnel instead?

It’s possible it just all sounded “off”

You can be sure the security services were either issuing the directions themselves or some ATC people were under orders and threats.

I mean if you were working in ATC you’d surely know this was highly unusual and defied logic, even if you didn’t know why.

I assume they got some kind of directive from a security agency, properly old school KGB style without adequate info etc.

You’d know if ATC sounded unsure of itself or just relaying a directive.

Irish Steve · 26-05-2021 12:42pm

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

I’m assuming part of the scepticism could have been that Minsk wasn’t the nearest airport.

The crew may have seen it as more logical to continue to Vilnius or to land sooner at any near by airfield. It’s only a 737-800 so a lot of airports could handle it.

It seemed to involve a fairly significant diversion.

Also would you really want to fly an aircraft with a suspected bomb on board over a large city?

A more remote airfield might be safer.

Doesn’t really make much logical sense as to why it wouldn’t have just continued to its destination and have been met by the emergency services and bomb squad there.

Or if a very serious risk, there must be some alternative smaller airfield around there somewhere.

Ideally, you’d be looking to land somewhere with a more Shannon like space, away from a city.

As mentioned in my earlier post, the rules relating to this scenario are very clearly laid down by ICAO, and allow very little flexibility, so for example, if an aircraft operating in UK airspace is intercepted and instructed to divert, there are only a limited number of airports that are designated for processing a "threat" flight, and the intercepted aircraft does not get to choose which airport it will land at.

The issue in this case is that the aircraft was in Belarus airspace, and as such, the Belarus authorities have the legal right to determine which airfield will be used for the landing.

To expand that thought, a flight coming through UK airspace from (say) Germany with a destination of Dublin would not be allowed to continue to land in Dublin if intercepted, even if over Wales ,it would most likely be diverted to Stansted (a designated airport), even though the distance to Dublin might be shorter and quicker.

In this situation, the crew of the intercepted aircraft has very little choice or discretion about how they will respond, even more so if there is an intercepting aircraft in close proximity.

goingnowhere · 26-05-2021 12:46pm

faoiarvok wrote: »

I’m not familiar with this colour code, can any pilots shed some light on what they think it is? Is it a standard measure of the estimated severity/veracity of the threat, or something else?

I understand if it’s not supposed to be public knowledge.

Don't ask. There are various challenge response questions ATC ask of pilots to validate status of the aircraft security

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 26-05-2021 12:46pm

Even so the transcript just reads to me like they were very sceptical and that’s the one from the Belarusian authorities.

I’d be very interested to hear the Ryanair cockpit voice recorder if it were available.

Or at least Ryanair’s transcript of what was actually said.

Growler!!! · 26-05-2021 12:47pm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4911296.stm

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hunt-for-bomb-hoaxer-after-plane-diverted-26410839.html

For specific bomb on board threats it is advised to land as soon as possible. For a non specific threat ATC may suggest diversion airports within its FIR. Some countries have designated airports for such eventualities as in the example above, Prestwick and I believe Stansted are the UK designated airports.

In the Aer Arann example they had taken off from Luton and were escorted all the way to Prestwick by 2 RAF fighters even though Galway was their original destination.

Im not saying this is what happened in the Belarus case but it would make sense that the aircraft would not be allowed to leave Belarus FIR if a bomb threat had been made (whether real or not).

Some professionals I work with have expressed the thought of ignoring the interception protocols and continuing. This obviously ignores the threat of a Mig 29's 30mm cannon!!

ted1 · 26-05-2021 1:09pm

There are belavia flights going to the EU at the moment? Are they not banned ? B2895. Looks like B2969 was turned away.

AndyBoBandy · 26-05-2021 1:14pm

Do we know if Minsk is a 'designated airport'?

Surely one of the considerations for selecting a designated airport would be that it not be a primary airport, so in the event of an incident, it wouldn't potentially disable a countries primary airport, but rather a secondary ala Luton & Prestwick..

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 26-05-2021 1:15pm

At the most fundamental level, aircraft crews and passengers put their lives into the hands of a system that is largely still made of people. They do their level best to ensure that we all get around the skies safely and you need to be able to know you can trust and rely on them to do their job. Most of the time you know that they’ll not only do their job, but go above and beyond to ensure you are safe.

This is just an enormous breach of trust. They didn’t do their job. Instead they tricked a flight into landing so that passengers could be basically kidnapped by security services.

That’s very hard to fix and will take a long time to rebuild confidence.

Muahahaha · 26-05-2021 1:50pm

ATC: RYR 1TZ

Pilot: The bomb…direct message, where did it come from? Where did you have information about it from?

ATC: RYR 1TZ stanby please.

ATC: 09:33:42: RYR 1TZ

Pilot: Go ahead.

ATC: RYR 1TZ airport security stuff informed they received e-mail.

Pilot: Roger, Vilnius airport security stuff or from Greece?

ATC: RYR 1TZ this e-mail was shared to several airports.

Pilot: Roger, standby.

Seems the Belorussians have caught themselves out there by saying the email was sent to "several airports". If no email was sent to Athens or Vilnus airports then what does "several airports" refer to? Tt seems like a deliberately vague answer to the pilots direct question. Belarus will probably now claim that several random airports in Belarus got this email along with their previous claim it was Hamas who sent the bomb threat. Its lies on top of more lies.

robinph · 26-05-2021 3:02pm

Doesn't seem overly odd that on getting told about a specific threat in relation to bomb going off over Vilnius that you'd then get directed to not fly to Vilnius. Don't think that part of the transcript would be a reason to arouse suspicion for the pilots.

The shared to "several airports" bit is odd, but the pilots don't really have the information to be questioning that. They have to trust that the ATC isn't lying to them because ATC would never lie to pilots...until now.

goingnowhere · 26-05-2021 4:32pm

Well,

No Mig-29 (everyone has a smartphone and standard protocol is to fly slightly ahead on the captains side, that is not going to be missed in the cabin)
No staged fight onboard (no radio call and no challenge/response for cockpit security)

No liveatc recording, so no independent audio source to review

What bets "someone" pushed the erase button on the CVR to ensure no record, assuming the crew were sharp enough after the stress of the diversion to figure out what was going on and to try to preserve the recording. Less than an hour back to Vilnius so if they stopped the CVR good chance it would have held the true audio

It will all come out in time assuming the IAA equivalent in Lithuania or Poland (state of reg) interview the crew

Nijmegen · 26-05-2021 4:55pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

Well,

No Mig-29 (everyone has a smartphone and standard protocol is to fly slightly ahead on the captains side, that is not going to be missed in the cabin)
No staged fight onboard (no radio call and no challenge/response for cockpit security)

No liveatc recording, so no independent audio source to review

Not to forget: No bomb.

ted1 · 26-05-2021 5:10pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

Not to forget: No bomb.

Or bomb squad.

Dohvolle · 26-05-2021 6:01pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Seems the Belorussians have caught themselves out there by saying the email was sent to "several airports". If no email was sent to Athens or Vilnus airports then what does "several airports" refer to? Tt seems like a deliberately vague answer to the pilots direct question. Belarus will probably now claim that several random airports in Belarus got this email along with their previous claim it was Hamas who sent the bomb threat. Its lies on top of more lies.

Hamas have gone on record to deny any involvement. Which says a lot for Hamas.

lulublue22 · 26-05-2021 6:16pm

Lukashenko now claims that information on the threat originated from Switzerland which of course Switzerland denies. He also stated that the presence of the mig was not meant as threatening but rather reassuring. Not sure what implicating other countries such as Switzerland achieves or rather what he hopes will achieve. I can just about understand citing Hamas given the recent Israel / Palestine tensions and the polarised reaction to same but implicating Switzerland is quite strange. Seems he is also referring to France refusing Belviva flight to Barcelona to use it’s air space as an act of air piracy.

cnocbui · 26-05-2021 6:39pm

I'm confused, when was the last time Hamas did something negative in Greece?

Maybe it's Lukashenko who's confused.

Muahahaha · 26-05-2021 7:03pm

lulublue22 wrote: »

Lukashenko now claims that information on the threat originated from Switzerland which of course Switzerland denies. He also stated that the presence of the mig was not meant as threatening but rather reassuring. Not sure what implicating other countries such as Switzerland achieves or rather what he hopes will achieve. I can just about understand citing Hamas given the recent Israel / Palestine tensions and the polarised reaction to same but implicating Switzerland is quite strange. Seems he is also referring to France refusing Belviva flight to Barcelona to use it’s air space as an act of air piracy.

Could be wrong but I think the Switzerland link might be because Hamas (at least in the past) have used Switzerland as a conduit when negotiating with the US & Israel. Norway have often performed a similar function when the US deals with North Korea or Iran, both them and Switzerland often act as a go between and a back channel for unfriendly governments to communicate. So Lukashenko might be alluding to a bomb threat being sent from Hamas to the Swiss and then onwards by them to Belarus. Its all a load of b0llocks anyway, the guy is basically a madman so will make up anything to tell his domestic audience.

lulublue22 · 26-05-2021 7:16pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Could be wrong but I think the Switzerland link might be because Hamas (at least in the past) have used Switzerland as a conduit when negotiating with the US & Israel. Norway have often performed a similar function when the US deals with North Korea or Iran, both them and Switzerland often act as a go between and a back channel for unfriendly governments to communicate. So Lukashenko might be alluding to a bomb threat being sent from Hamas to the Swiss and then onwards by them to Belarus. Its all a load of b0llocks anyway, the guy is basically a madman so will make up anything to tell his domestic audience.

Thanks I didn’t know that - it makes slightly ! more sense now. He certainly seems to be making things up as he goes ðŸ˜

ted1 · 26-05-2021 10:01pm

ted1 wrote: »

There are belavia flights going to the EU at the moment? Are they not banned ? B2895. Looks like B2969 was turned away.

Some details here. https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.aerotime.aero/28013-belavia-flight-denied-access-to-poland-airspace%3fv=amp

Why is it that some EU states are allowing them ? Not much unity in the union.

Nijmegen · 26-05-2021 10:04pm

Seems the state sponsored crack Russian hackers didn’t manage to give their Belorussian colleagues an email with a time stamp that makes any sense.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1397651863454064647?s=21

robinph · 26-05-2021 11:19pm

That thread gets funnier as you go through. That they emailed the wrong airports, Lukashenko claimed the threat came from Switzerland because their genius fake email was from a free account owned by a Swiss company, the time stamps wrong
.. And then the best bit with the Hamas email coming from someone with a Jewish Bulgarian name.

Are we certain this isn't a new Borat movie in the making?

Nijmegen · 27-05-2021 10:52am

robinph wrote: »

That thread gets funnier as you go through. That they emailed the wrong airports, Lukashenko claimed the threat came from Switzerland because their genius fake email was from a free account owned by a Swiss company, the time stamps wrong
.. And then the best bit with the Hamas email coming from someone with a Jewish Bulgarian name.

Are we certain this isn't a new Borat movie in the making?

Up until you're the bloke in the prison cell!

But their brazenness is baked in, I think, same as with so many Russian state sponsored killings abroad and so on. Just issue a thin message and assume you won't actually get punished, indeed send a message to your opponents that they're not safe.

Edit: Actually, interesting from a (behind paywall) FT article, few quotes stood out to just that point:

the 66-year-old former collective farm boss warned it was only “a matter of time” before other dissidents abroad would be caught too.

“We know you by sight,” he said.

....

On Wednesday, in an apparent attempt to intimidate political opponents, Belarusian authorities released footage showing what is thought to be the final hours of dissident Vitold Ashurak’s life. The clip showed the activist, who died on May 21 of unknown causes, alone in a prison cell and unable to stand, collapsing twice face-first.

Dmitry Stakhovsky, an 18-year-old orphan, committed suicide on Tuesday after being charged with similar crimes to Protasevich and blamed “moral pressure” from investigators for his death, according to a note on social media.

....

Hopes of a settlement, however, have been dashed by Russia’s continued support for Lukashenko

27-05-2021 5:45pm

ah Hamas, embracing gmail

JohnC. · 27-05-2021 6:26pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/27/world-aviation-body-to-launch-inquiry-into-belarus-hijacking

Russia refuse permission for Austrian Airlines and Air France to fly to Moscow in apparent retaliation after they took the advice to avoid Belarus airspace. Though others like BA and KLM have been able to run such flights.

Also, depending on what Lukashenko does next, there's a good chance ICAO will expel them from conventions that would basically ban them from international aviation.

josip · 28-05-2021 12:03am

JohnC. wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/27/world-aviation-body-to-launch-inquiry-into-belarus-hijacking

Russia refuse permission for Austrian Airlines and Air France to fly to Moscow in apparent retaliation after they took the advice to avoid Belarus airspace. Though others like BA and KLM have been able to run such flights.

Also, depending on what Lukashenko does next, there's a good chance ICAO will expel them from conventions that would basically ban them from international aviation.

(If mods consider this to be general politics, please delete)
Why would Russia so obviously back Lukashenko in this case?
Are they really trying to say that it's acceptable what he did?
The ICAO will decide based on a majority, so Russia can't block their expulsion.
It's not like Putin to choose a losing position.

tjhook · 28-05-2021 7:51am

josip wrote: »

Why would Russia so obviously back Lukashenko in this case?
Are they really trying to say that it's acceptable what he did?

I'd imagine that the more isolated Belarus becomes, the more it'll be driven into the arms of Russia. Becoming more dependent on Russia. Like any of the other world powers, Russia would love to extend its influence.

That would be the case even in the event of expulsion from ICAO. Maybe even more so.

Larbre34 · 29-05-2021 2:49am

An immediate retaliation banning all Russian owned and operated flights from landing anywhere in the EU should follow. As soon as the Oligarchs have to start getting the train to their villas and banks in Europe, Russia will change its tune.

Putin also needs a massive slap.

IngazZagni · 29-05-2021 8:16am

Larbre34 wrote: »

An immediate retaliation banning all Russian owned and operated flights from landing anywhere in the EU should follow. As soon as the Oligarchs have to start getting the train to their villas and banks in Europe, Russia will change its tune.

Putin also needs a massive slap.

As has been mentioned this could affect Europe as much as Russia as Russian airspace is vital for Asian connectivity.
It would also decimate airlines like Finnair. It would be like Aer Lingus not being allowed fly to the States.

Belarus forces Ryanair plane to divert *NO GENERAL POLITICS* *MOD WARNING POST 1*

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Belarus forces Ryanair plane to divert NO GENERAL POLITICS MOD WARNING POST 1