Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

mikeorange · 22-05-2021 10:08PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

From what i’m reading Indian variant : 33% after 1st dose. The UK variant : 51% after 1st dose.

Second dose 81% for the indian scariant and 87% for the UK scariant.

( symptomatic infection)

One and done J&J vaccine is in trouble then? If two doses are needed to neutralize Indian

Goldengirl · 22-05-2021 10:23PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Is anyone living with parents that won't get vaccinated? Really tricky situation to be in.

Why not , WoollyRedHat ?

WoollyRedHat · 22-05-2021 10:29PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Why not , WoollyRedHat ?

Don't know to be honest, my mum has said she's 'waiting to see' whatever that means, worried she has read some of the unsubstantiated claims online about the vaccines online and won't get them because of that. I appreciate vaccine hesitance because of clots issue, but don't think it's because of that, she said she doesn't fear Covid as much anymore, but she would be considered in groups that are at risk.

Goldengirl · 22-05-2021 10:32PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Any word on a shortage of AZ? I know 4 people all 60 who registered on the first available date but are still waiting on an appointment. Everybody aged 61+ and late 50s that we know are vaccinated. The under 60s were Pfizer.
They all contacted the call centre and were just told that they shouldn't be waiting so long and it would be marked for escalation.

Yes I have heard of a few HCWs all over 12 weeks and still waiting for their call for 2nd dose .
Being done in MVCs now so it must be what vaccine the particular centre is getting in ?

Micky 32 · 22-05-2021 10:37PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

she's 'waiting to see' .

It’s the exact same line i have been hearing from people all this week. 2 elderly people near 80 one with lung problems and their daughter and family. We’ll “ wait and see how this experimental vaccine works out”

Deeper Blue · 22-05-2021 10:51PM

I thought Holohan said there was data coming out from public health England that the vaccines weren't as effective against the India variant? Or was he misquoted?

The fact that they do work is brilliant, but completely unsurprising

revelman · 22-05-2021 10:53PM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

I thought Holohan said there was data coming out from public health England that the vaccines weren't as effective against the India variant? Or was he misquoted?

The fact that they do work is brilliant, but completely unsurprising

I think the concern revolves around the fact that one dose is insufficiently protective. That’s why there is a rush in the U.K. to bring forward second doses. We still have a long way to go on this front. I’m guessing this is where the concern lies.

harr · 22-05-2021 10:54PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s the exact same line i have been hearing from people all this week. 2 elderly people near 80 one with lung problems and their daughter and family. We’ll “ wait and see how this experimental vaccine works out”

I have unfortunately also come across it this week , an aunt of mine was all super excited to get her vaccine on Tuesday but seemingly her daughter convinced her to “ wait and and see “ after a few weeks . I wouldn’t mind but she is diabetic and obese . This is the second time her family have convinced her to hold off.

mikeorange · 22-05-2021 11:02PM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

I thought Holohan said there was data coming out from public health England that the vaccines weren't as effective against the India variant? Or was he misquoted?

The fact that they do work is brilliant, but completely unsurprising

It did come out

1st dose performs very poorly against it, needs 2 dose to stop it.

Dilema is if variant spreads fast, second dose will be needed much quicker than 12-16 weeks out and vulnerable who got doses in January might need a third dose/booster soon if variant is widespread in population.

Also as J&J is only a single dose it might be in trouble and booster needed

Race to get fully vaccinated as quickly as possible will be the goal now

dominatinMC · 22-05-2021 11:12PM

mikeorange wrote: »

It did come out

1st dose performs very poorly against it, needs 2 dose to stop it.

Dilema is if variant spreads fast, second dose will be needed much quicker than 12-16 weeks out and vulnerable who got doses in January might need a third dose/booster soon if variant is widespread in population.

Also as J&J is only a single dose it might be in trouble and booster needed

Race to get fully vaccinated as quickly as possible will be the goal now

Can you quantify "very poorly"? I'd be interested to see what numbers they have.

Micky 32 · 22-05-2021 11:14PM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

I thought Holohan said there was data coming out from public health England that the vaccines weren't as effective against the India variant? Or was he misquoted?

The fact that they do work is brilliant, but completely unsurprising

Unfortunately RTE didn’t follow up on this ( on the RTE news app anyway), they only reported Mr H’s comments.

dominatinMC · 22-05-2021 11:20PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Unfortunately RTE didn’t follow up on this ( on the RTE news app anyway), they only reported Mr H’s comments.

This is something that's annoyed me throughout the whole pandemic. Maybe they ask these sort of questions, but we never see it.

It appears as if they treat Tony as some messiah, and worship at his alter, rather than do their job - which is to investigate and report. If Tony makes these grand statements, he should be asked for this rational? On what grounds is he saying this? The UK are reporting that this Indian variant is not as bad as initially feared - now, where have I heard that before (SA, California, Brittany, etc, etc, etc):eek:

mikeorange · 22-05-2021 11:21PM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Can you quantify "very poorly"? I'd be interested to see what numbers they have.

33% after 1st dose, for context original strain was over 80% for 1st dose, but 2nd dose gives over 85% so it's not all bad.

Sleeper12 · 22-05-2021 11:35PM

Jim_Hodge wrote:

Any word on a shortage of AZ? I know 4 people all 60 who registered on the first available date but are still waiting on an appointment. Everybody aged 61+ and late 50s that we know are vaccinated. The under 60s were Pfizer. They all contacted the call centre and were just told that they shouldn't be waiting so long and it would be marked for escalation.

I don't believe that has anything to do with the supply of AZ. That age group can & was given just about all of the. Some centers are way behind others. Dublin is on the low 50s & even starting on the 40s. other centres still have some 60s left to get through

astrofool · 22-05-2021 11:51PM

mikeorange wrote: »

33% after 1st dose, for context original strain was over 80% for 1st dose, but 2nd dose gives over 85% so it's not all bad.

Where are you getting the data for those figures?

The boosters are there to keep the antibody/t-cell count high so there is an expected drop off, but 33% sounds very low given the mutations are already present in other variants.

J&J being 1 shot has shown to have long lasting high immunity levels meaning a second shot isn't required (particular vs. severe disease and death).

Wolf359f · 23-05-2021 12:02AM

astrofool wrote: »

Where are you getting the data for those figures?

The boosters are there to keep the antibody/t-cell count high so there is an expected drop off, but 33% sounds very low given the mutations are already present in other variants.

J&J being 1 shot has shown to have long lasting high immunity levels meaning a second shot isn't required (particular vs. severe disease and death).

I'm sure there's a more detailed report: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pfizer-vaccine-nearly-90-effective-against-indian-variant-public-health-england-study-finds-12314048
The wording is a little weird, they are suggesting 2 weeks after the 2nd dose of AZ, it's 60% effective against the Indian variant compared to 66% with the Kent variant.
All the data presented by PHE had AZ up in the high 80/low 90% efficiency at a time when the Kent strain was dominant in the UK. All of a sudden it's now 66% effective???

mikeorange · 23-05-2021 12:06AM

astrofool wrote: »

Where are you getting the data for those figures?

The boosters are there to keep the antibody/t-cell count high so there is an expected drop off, but 33% sounds very low given the mutations are already present in other variants.

J&J being 1 shot has shown to have long lasting high immunity levels meaning a second shot isn't required (particular vs. severe disease and death).

Nervtag UK published them

33% is very low yes, 2nd dose is needed based on report they published as it increased to 81% with both doses.

J&J wasn't in use, so no data to prove one dose is enough against Indian. With 33% efficacy from Pfizer/Moderna/AZ its unlikely J&J one and done is enough.

delly · 23-05-2021 12:10AM

It's hard to try and collate all of the data coming out online, but I've found an epidemiologist who does a great job of updating the efficacy once there is data to back it up. Most recent chart below, along with the link to the page.

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/vaccine-table-update-may-18-2021?fbclid=IwAR1mKqZBtMKUEkG9AKQSKeZ6regGNJZsdRhHLpxHGOn474rBgJLfbjE2E38

mikeorange · 23-05-2021 12:11AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm sure there's a more detailed report: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pfizer-vaccine-nearly-90-effective-against-indian-variant-public-health-england-study-finds-12314048
The wording is a little weird, they are suggesting 2 weeks after the 2nd dose of AZ, it's 60% effective against the Indian variant compared to 66% with the Kent variant.
All the data presented by PHE had AZ up in the high 80/low 90% efficiency at a time when the Kent strain was dominant in the UK. All of a sudden it's now 66% effective???

All those cross comparison percentage efficacy rates are meaningless unless you know exposure rate to each variant.

Goldengirl · 23-05-2021 12:25AM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Don't know to be honest, my mum has said she's 'waiting to see' whatever that means, worried she has read some of the unsubstantiated claims online about the vaccines online and won't get them because of that. I appreciate vaccine hesitance because of clots issue, but don't think it's because of that, she said she doesn't fear Covid as much anymore, but she would be considered in groups that are at risk.

All you can do is support them and give them any proper information if they ask. You are very well up on everything but maybe too close.
Is your GP any good ? Could you ask him or her to discuss it with them ?
Or have they contact with any nurses they trust who might go through the pluses and ...pluses with them ?
I am so sorry as I know you must be worried for them .

Wolf359f · 23-05-2021 12:28AM

mikeorange wrote: »

All those cross comparison percentage efficacy rates are meaningless unless you know exposure rate to each variant.

I'm not sure what you mean by exposure rate?

Clinical trials are usually done with various vaccines, at different times (so different strains) and with a different demographic. So that's 3 variables, which means making vaccine to vaccine comparison on efficiency a little meaningless.

PHE compared 2 vaccines at the start of the year (AZ & Pfizer) when the Kent strain was dominant, it found AZ was ~90% effective after 2 doses.
Based on new reports, it appears AZ is now only 66% effective against the Kent variant.

I wish they would just crunch the numbers and say:
unvaccinated: X% chance of hospitalisation.
1 dose of X vaccine against Y strain: Z% chance of hospitalisation.
2 doses of X vaccine against Y strain: W% chance of hospitalisation.
etc...

astrofool · 23-05-2021 01:13AM

mikeorange wrote: »

Nervtag UK published them

33% is very low yes, 2nd dose is needed based on report they published as it increased to 81% with both doses.

J&J wasn't in use, so no data to prove one dose is enough against Indian. With 33% efficacy from Pfizer/Moderna/AZ its unlikely J&J one and done is enough.

Do you have the link? I took a look around and couldn't find anything with a few different queries.

astrofool · 23-05-2021 01:14AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm not sure what you mean by exposure rate?

Clinical trials are usually done with various vaccines, at different times (so different strains) and with a different demographic. So that's 3 variables, which means making vaccine to vaccine comparison on efficiency a little meaningless.

PHE compared 2 vaccines at the start of the year (AZ & Pfizer) when the Kent strain was dominant, it found AZ was ~90% effective after 2 doses.
Based on new reports, it appears AZ is now only 66% effective against the Kent variant.

I wish they would just crunch the numbers and say:
unvaccinated: X% chance of hospitalisation.
1 dose of X vaccine against Y strain: Z% chance of hospitalisation.
2 doses of X vaccine against Y strain: W% chance of hospitalisation.
etc...

I don't think they have the numbers to do that yet.

Wolf359f · 23-05-2021 01:32AM

astrofool wrote: »

I don't think they have the numbers to do that yet.

It's very simple, anyone hospitalized with covid would be tested. You can check the strain they have (with hospitalizations so low, it's extremely important strains are sequenced). They can also access records if the patient was vaccinated and which vaccine it was. They would also know if they received 2 doses and how long after a dose they may have contracted covid.

Sounds simple to me.

Wolf359f · 23-05-2021 01:33AM

astrofool wrote: »

Do you have the link? I took a look around and couldn't find anything with a few different queries.

These are the links:
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+the+B.1.617.2+variant.pdf/204c11a4-e02e-11f2-db19-b3664107ac42
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/B.1.617.2+vaccine+effectiveness+supplementary+figures.pdf/daab9f52-7092-d024-fcf6-4557b95b2257

Lumen · 23-05-2021 06:48AM

Relative efficacy only matters when we are not supply limited.

Until then, the best protection comes from not being exposed, and that requires all available doses to be used.

The fine tuning can happen over autumn/winter when we're swimming in vaccines.

Jim_Hodge · 23-05-2021 08:06AM

Sleeper12 wrote: »

I don't believe that has anything to do with the supply of AZ. That age group can & was given just about all of the. Some centers are way behind others. Dublin is on the low 50s & even starting on the 40s. other centres still have some 60s left to get through

That doesn't work. The particular centre did all 61+ plus and then moved on to 50s but skipped 60 year Olds.

duffman13 · 23-05-2021 09:15AM

Well the main substance of the PHE report is to get 2nd doses out ASAP particularly with AZ. Lots due 2nd doses around now to end of June particularly with HCW. Hopefully they will be sped up where possible

mikeorange · 23-05-2021 09:27AM

duffman13 wrote: »

Well the main substance of the PHE report is to get 2nd doses out ASAP particularly with AZ. Lots due 2nd doses around now to end of June particularly with HCW. Hopefully they will be sped up where possible

What I would like to see is more detail provided in our daily figures, as in who's getting infected.

So people get a sense how good the vaccines are

524 daily cases

500 cases in non vaccinated/ previous non pcr confirmed

24 cases in vaccinated etc

iguana · 23-05-2021 10:07AM

With the 45 year olds registering today is there any word on if we're moving on to the 44-40s from tomorrow or if we have to wait a few days?

Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

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