(WHO) expert believes Ireland will have to re-impose regional restrictions

drunkmonkey · 21-05-2021 11:32am #1

Dr Nabarro also believes the Indian variant will grow here.

He said that incidence of the variant will increase and it will be necessary to occasionally restrict movement and introduce widespread testing.

"There are going to be movement restrictions, at least in the foreseeable future," said Dr Nabarro.

"They will be localized but I don't think they will be nationwide movement restriction unless Ireland is very, very unlucky."

Just when we're looking at the end of the Tunnel, we're back to restrictions, the one thing Mr Nabarro fails to grasp is our Government don't do regional restrictions, it's all or nothing.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40294880.html

Is this Indian variant worse than we're being lead to believe?

Hellrazer · 21-05-2021 11:51am

I thought the evidence was that the current vaccines are working against the Indian Variant.

wes · 21-05-2021 11:56am

I think if variant spreads faster than we can vaccinate, I guess it could happen. We are still vulnerable, until we reach herd immunity, and need to be very careful with opening up. IMO, the situation is a constant tight rope.

Atlantic Dawn · 21-05-2021 11:56am

It's over, no more restrictions, vaccines are the end game.

micks_address · 21-05-2021 11:58am

WHO yesterday said all variants including the indian one are covered by vaccines... if we vaccinate enough people won't be any need for lockdowns.. people will still get covid.. even vaccinated people but the numbers will be so low in terms of serious illness and hospital admissions that it won't register more than the seasonal flu

drunkmonkey · 21-05-2021 12:05pm

Hellrazer wrote: »

I thought the evidence was that the current vaccines are working against the Indian Variant.

Around 75% the report said for Pfizer but I think there's 4 or 5 sub strains, the report doesn't name the study so I'm not sure it covered all the variants of the variant.

funnydoggy · 21-05-2021 12:14pm

I dunno what to believe.

We've been through different variants since the start of this and it's never been as bad as once feared. I feel cautiously optimistic, especially as our vaccines ramp up and Professor Neil Ferguson in the UK saying that the variant isn't spreading as fast over there as they initially feared (I know they've got more vaccinations done though).

I'm only a layperson though *shrugs*

ongarite · 21-05-2021 12:19pm

There is no evidence that the Indian variant in the UK spreads any faster or evades vaccines.
We had this initial panic before with Brazilian and South African variants.

The reason for large number of cases in Bolton and other northern towns is complete failure of test and trace system.
Local councils were not informed for 3 weeks that there were cases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57186059

Glaceon · 21-05-2021 12:21pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Around 75% the report said for Pfizer but I think there's 4 or 5 sub strains, the report doesn't name the study so I'm not sure it covered all the variants of the variant.

I heard something similar on Drivetime last week. An epidemiologist said that there's three strains of what we call the Indian variant. One of them does appear to have some resistance to vaccines but it's not spreading rapidly. I'm definitely feeling more optimistic than I was even a few weeks ago.

Bot1 · 21-05-2021 12:23pm

We're at a point worldwide where we have a good number of people vaccinated with a sizeable group unvaccinated.

If the vaccines prevent infection, there is Darwinian pressure on the virus to circumvent the vaccine by changing it's spike protein etc.

It's not back to normal for a while yet and I'd say we are facing into more restrictions come September.

They need to be measured restrictions and focus on eliminating unnecessary risks - like working in an office when you can WFH.

funnydoggy · 21-05-2021 12:37pm

Bot1 wrote: »

It's not back to normal for a while yet and I'd say we are facing into more restrictions come September.

I dunno, I don't see it. People will not follow more restrictions in September whatsoever. Especially when we'll have close to herd immunity by then.

ginoginelli · 21-05-2021 12:41pm

funnydoggy wrote: »

I dunno what to believe.

We've been through different variants since the start of this and it's never been as bad as once feared. I feel cautiously optimistic, especially as our vaccines ramp up and Professor Neil Ferguson in the UK saying that the variant isn't spreading as fast over there as they initially feared (I know they've got more vaccinations done though).

I'm only a layperson though *shrugs*

The Kent variant was worse than we feared.

munchkin_utd · 21-05-2021 12:41pm

Glaceon wrote: »

I heard something similar on Drivetime last week. An epidemiologist said that there's three strains of what we call the Indian variant. One of them does appear to have some resistance to vaccines but it's not spreading rapidly. I'm definitely feeling more optimistic than I was even a few weeks ago.

having a bit more resistance to the vaccine means more people get symptoms (like a case of a runny nose or a cough or loss of taste) or test positive BUT , and this is where people really arent turning on their brain and seeing the bigger picture, it still is more or less as effective in avoiding hospital stays or death. Death is a balls for the sufferer and their family, a sniffle isnt.

We are in a panic for the past year because people are getting really sick, or dying, from covid. Not because people get a bit of a cold from it.
If the vaccine stops people from dying, but is "less effective" when measuring those who get a cold, really, who cares ?

Most of us dont take the flu vaccine as we dont care if we get the flu. We put up with the risk of being in bed, but mostly brush it off. With a vaccine, covid becomes something similar, regardless of the variant strain.

ginoginelli · 21-05-2021 12:43pm

funnydoggy wrote: »

I dunno, I don't see it. People will not follow more restrictions in September whatsoever. Especially when we'll have close to herd immunity by then.

I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be in a good place by september and have this virus under control, especially if we start vaccinating the 12 - 15 yr olds.

funnydoggy · 21-05-2021 12:43pm

ginoginelli wrote: »

The Kent variant was worse than we feared.

Which one was that again? There's been so many lol

Was that the one around Christmas? Mike Ryan from the WHO said that it wasn't that variant that caused the surge, it was people socialising.

ginoginelli · 21-05-2021 12:49pm

funnydoggy wrote: »

Which one was that again? There's been so many lol

Was that the one around Christmas? Mike Ryan from the WHO said that it wasn't that variant that caused the surge, it was people socialising.

Yes. The b117. Probably a combination of the two led to the surge at Christmas. The b117 is recognized as a gamechanger though, and its higher trasmission was initially underestimated.

funnydoggy · 21-05-2021 12:51pm

ginoginelli wrote: »

Yes. The b117. Probably a combination of the two led to the surge at Christmas. The b117 is recognized as a gamechanger though, and its higher trasmission was initially underestimated.

Ah I get you re: transmission now

Yeah I can see that alright! We're hovering around 400 cases a day for the past few weeks now, I wonder is that the 'low' given the variants at play.

NIMAN · 21-05-2021 12:52pm

Rightly or wrongly, if the Gov reintroduce restrictions they will suffer.
I don't think there is any will among the population to continue lockdowns. They only want to see it go one way from here on, and thats open, open, open.

Kewreeuss · 21-05-2021 1:09pm

Here now, Dr Navarro, why don’t you go away somewhere nice and stop trying to scare us?

drunkmonkey · 21-05-2021 1:12pm

NIMAN wrote: »

Rightly or wrongly, if the Gov reintroduce restrictions they will suffer.
I don't think there is any will among the population to continue lockdowns. They only want to see it go one way from here on, and thats open, open, open.

The majority of people seem to be in support of their decisions, AOC has turned into a national hero if he says we're locking down again it will happen, Leo might throw it up to him but MM certainly won't.
I hope your right and it's full steam ahead.

agoodpunt · 21-05-2021 1:18pm

And this wont help either 3 suspected from india flee quarrantine

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/officials-hunt-three-relatives-who-24150643

bodhrandude · 21-05-2021 1:20pm

Can we not just tell the virus to fcuk right off forever.

funnydoggy · 21-05-2021 1:22pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The majority of people seem to be in support of their decisions, AOC has turned into a national hero if he says we're locking down again it will happen, Leo might throw it up to him but MM certainly won't.
I hope your right and it's full steam ahead.

Who's AOC?

Spanish Eyes · 21-05-2021 1:23pm

How long is vaccination effective for? Is it six months, a year, forever what?

That is a question that hasn't been answered yet, and to me it's an important one also. I suppose until a certain time has elapsed in the vax program we won't know. And Winter surges are a possibility too I suppose.

Just thinking out loud.

drunkmonkey · 21-05-2021 1:27pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

How long is vaccination effective for? Is it six months, a year, forever what?

I read yesterday they're looking at starting the 3rd Pfizer shot in America around September, what's that about 4mts per jab.
Pfizer do hope to have an antiviral tablet cure out by the end of the year, that'll be a big boost if it happens.

Micky 32 · 21-05-2021 1:28pm

Ah yes i remember well all the doomsday predictions:

https://twitter.com/jewellerydiva/status/1393321680651567105?s=21

The vaccines are here and over 200k being injected a week. I can tell you now Ireland won’t be locking me up come September.

This shyte never quits.

funnydoggy · 21-05-2021 1:30pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

How long is vaccination effective for? Is it six months, a year, forever what?

That is a question that hasn't been answered yet, and to me it's an important one also. I suppose until a certain time has elapsed in the vax program we won't know. And Winter surges are a possibility too I suppose.

Just thinking out loud.

However long antibodies stay for, the body's T-cells stay around a LOT longer and play a big role in fighting infection. If I'm recalling correctly, they found that even SARS survivors still have T-cells to fight SARS to this day. I have the details all fudgy so I hope somebody corrects me

Beasty · 21-05-2021 1:30pm

The UK are saying this variant will become the dominant one there possibly in the next week or so. I suspect the concern is overspill with large numbers here not vaccinated

I guess another concern may be if this variant mutates further

Deeper Blue · 21-05-2021 1:34pm

We heard the same about the South Africa and Brazil variants.

There'll always be an expert somewhere making predictions, most of which never come to pass.

But they're great for clicks and column inches.

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 1:36pm

Deeper Blue wrote: »

We heard the same about the South Africa and Brazil variants.

There'll always be an expert somewhere making predictions, most of which never come to pass.

But they're great for clicks and column inches.

It's no accident we were hit with a "highly transmissible" variant during the time of year virus are most likely to transmit in big numbers.

screamer · 21-05-2021 1:44pm

Beasty wrote: »

The UK are saying this variant will become the dominant one there possibly in the next week or so. I suspect the concern is overspill with large numbers here not vaccinated

I guess another concern may be if this variant mutates further

Yes, it’s outcompeting all other strains. Problematic for us in Ireland as we’re nowhere near herd immunity and we saw what the imported original uk variant did here after Christmas- 5 months of lockdown later. Anyways equally worrying is that this is not virus transmission season, it should be slowing down significantly. Finally, we all need to understand that if other vaccine evading strains come along, we could well be forced back into lockdown. Vaccines are only the end game when they are effective against the attacker, otherwise it’s game on for the virus. I’m hoping beyond hope that is not the case, but it’s a possibility.

saabsaab · 21-05-2021 2:01pm

screamer wrote: »

Yes, it’s outcompeting all other strains. Problematic for us in Ireland as we’re nowhere near herd immunity and we saw what the imported original uk variant did here after Christmas- 5 months of lockdown later. Anyways equally worrying is that this is not virus transmission season, it should be slowing down significantly. Finally, we all need to understand that if other vaccine evading strains come along, we could well be forced back into lockdown. Vaccines are only the end game when they are effective against the attacker, otherwise it’s game on for the virus. I’m hoping beyond hope that is not the case, but it’s a possibility.

Yes it's a race now between the vaccines roll outs and the variants. Hope we win.

Micky 32 · 21-05-2021 2:04pm

saabsaab wrote: »

Yes it's a race now between the vaccines roll outs and the variants. Hope we win.

The vaccines will win. Watch this space

DaSilva · 21-05-2021 2:40pm

If the virus is capable of mutating to completely evade previous immunity meaning it is as dangerous as it is now to the previously infected/vaccinated, then we are doomed because society is not going to go into lockdown indefinitely every year. Given that no other endemic virus in the entire history of mankind demonstrates this capability: Fast spread, constant total immune evasion, serious disease, I am reluctantly to believe this is the one.

If its capable of mutating enough to continue to infect people and sustain itself, so long as it does not cause severe disease in too many people, society will accept it, like it does with all the other endemic viruses. Given that there are many viruses that exhibit this behaviour (even other coronaviruses), I believe this is most likely the outcome for this virus.

To quote Ralph Baric from back in March 2020

In general coronaviruses infect young children and cause mild disease. Most of us become immune to the contemporary coronaviruses within the first few years of life, and that immunity may well be saving us as adults from viruses that are much like emerging coronaviruses, in terms of they have an innate capacity to cause much more severe disease as a function of age.
...
I am saying that we as a scientific community have defined contemporary human coronaviruses as mild common cold diseases. When in reality all of these emerged from animal reservoirs hundreds of years ago and we have no idea how severe they were in naïve adult populations. They were probably brutal disease just like SARS, MERS and SARS2 are to adult individuals as they get older. And if that hypothesis is true, then the prediction would be that as sars2 goes around the globe, and infects the adult population we will become immune and the virus will now preserve itself in the population by infecting young children who don't get serious disease as they grow up, they are pre-immune and so they never get serious disease and SARS2 will now be relegated to the role of being a benign common contemporary coronavirus that somehow lost its pathogenic potential, when the real reason it lost its pathogenic potential is that all adults are immune.

From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZe-7BRLZtI&t=2845s

JeffKenna · 21-05-2021 2:42pm

saabsaab wrote: »

Yes it's a race now between the vaccines roll outs and the variants. Hope we win.

Paddy Power quoting evens on the vaccines and 2/1 on the variants.

saabsaab · 21-05-2021 2:45pm

JeffKenna wrote: »

Paddy Power quoting evens on the vaccines and 2/1 on the variants.

On the last furlong now.. Its Indian Variant coming on strong but Pfizer Lad hanging on..

ShineOn7 · 21-05-2021 3:27pm

I was on the Facebook app earlier enjoying chats in a FB Group I'm in and up pops a notification of the weekly briefing

It's Friday. I'm in a decent mood. "Don't click it. Don't click it. Don't click it"

Of course I clicked it. I wanted to hear the daily figures.

Here I am an hour later still listening to the briefing because of the ominous tone it's had almost throughout

"40-60% more transmittable"

"Dark cloud on the horizon"

And now fcuking George Lee is on! :pac:

Back to enjoying my Friday and switching it off now. There's loads of positivity out there (the good kind) regarding the Vaccines and they've barely touched on it

There is something quite worrying about today's briefing and this variant though and hopefully the much improved Vaccine ramp up will outpace any further waves

This country is pretty much spiritually broken in the last year and I'm not sure the population (any of it) will adhere to another Lockdown

TL:DR: Don't be on the Facebook app on Friday afternoons ;-)

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 3:35pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"40-60% more transmittable"

Be very careful how you read those stats...

Every new variant is 50-60% more transmittable than the last...

At any given time the virus is surging somewhere in the world (Brazil/SA/UK) , that variant is then thought to be more transmittable when it is simply going through a surge some where...doesn't mean it will rip through this country in the off season.

We had a multitude of variants last summer, but nobody paid any attention to them....they only became a public issue last Nov after the vaccines were announced.

If the virus is mutating to such a degree that it 200% more transmittable than the first virus then what is the point of lock downs...the thing can penetrate walls the way it is going!!!

lawred2 · 21-05-2021 3:37pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Dr Nabarro also believes the Indian variant will grow here.

He said that incidence of the variant will increase and it will be necessary to occasionally restrict movement and introduce widespread testing.

"There are going to be movement restrictions, at least in the foreseeable future," said Dr Nabarro.

"They will be localized but I don't think they will be nationwide movement restriction unless Ireland is very, very unlucky."

Just when we're looking at the end of the Tunnel, we're back to restrictions, the one thing Mr Nabarro fails to grasp is our Government don't do regional restrictions, it's all or nothing.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40294880.html

Is this Indian variant worse than we're being lead to believe?

oh go away Dr Nabarro

El_Duderino 09 · 21-05-2021 3:59pm

Why do people pretend to be certain when they don't actually have a clue? There's so much wishful thinking dressed up as statements of fact in this thread.

The truth is that we don't know what will happen next winter. We're in the summer period now and things are opening up and they will likely remain open during the summer and we're vaccinating at a rate that will mean all adults who want a vaccine will be vaccinated by winter. When the weather cools again then we will just have to see what happens. Maybe the vaccinations will mean there's no problem, maybe it won't be enough or there will be newer variants which mean we need restrictions or even lockdown.

Someone pretending to be certain about what will happen next winter or telling you its all over, is a sure sign of someone not worth listening to. They're telling you what they wish to happen and pretending it's a fact, not a wish.

eastie17 · 21-05-2021 4:01pm

George Lee, jaysus

drunkmonkey · 21-05-2021 4:14pm

funnydoggy wrote: »

Who's AOC?

Tony (Abundance Of Caution)

Wolf359f · 21-05-2021 5:43pm

agoodpunt wrote: »

And this wont help either 3 suspected from india flee quarrantine

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/officials-hunt-three-relatives-who-24150643

Doesn't say anywhere on that page they were from India. They said they are Indian, massive difference. Travel bans are based on departure country, not the persons nationality. It's disgusting reporting.

Lumen · 21-05-2021 5:53pm

DaSilva wrote: »

Given that no other endemic virus in the entire history of mankind demonstrates this capability: Fast spread, constant total immune evasion, serious disease, I am reluctantly to believe this is the one.

IMO what makes COVID particularly difficult to deal with is that

(a) it just perfectly sits at the boundary between "just another mild virus", which we would do nothing to stop, and "horrific pathogen", which we would do everything to stop.

(b) it disproportionately affects most the people whose lives we attach least value to (I don't mean to be cruel, we do actually attach less value to older people, actuarially speaking). If it was killing 10% of babies we would do everything to stop it. 10% of 80 year olds? That's a harder sell.

If it had the kill-rate of MERS we'd all just retreat into our homes for a month, emerge, bury the dead and carry on.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 21-05-2021 6:05pm

funnydoggy wrote: »

Which one was that again? There's been so many lol

Was that the one around Christmas? Mike Ryan from the WHO said that it wasn't that variant that caused the surge, it was people socialising.

We went from 10% Kent variant late December to 90% Kent variant in mid February iirc.

I fully believe there would have been a surge either way. I do think it might have topped out at around 3,000-4,000 cases a day in early January instead of seeing highs of 6,000.

21-05-2021 6:30pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Why do people pretend to be certain when they don't actually have a clue? There's so much wishful thinking dressed up as statements of fact in this thread.

The truth is that we don't know what will happen next winter. We're in the summer period now and things are opening up and they will likely remain open during the summer and we're vaccinating at a rate that will mean all adults who want a vaccine will be vaccinated by winter. When the weather cools again then we will just have to see what happens. Maybe the vaccinations will mean there's no problem, maybe it won't be enough or there will be newer variants which mean we need restrictions or even lockdown.

Someone pretending to be certain about what will happen next winter or telling you its all over, is a sure sign of someone not worth listening to. They're telling you what they wish to happen and pretending it's a fact, not a wish.

The entire population of the world has now become an armchair expert on viruses and vaccines.

What could possibly go wrong?

ssssssass · 22-05-2021 2:01am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Dr Nabarro also believes the Indian variant will grow here.

He said that incidence of the variant will increase and it will be necessary to occasionally restrict movement and introduce widespread testing.

"There are going to be movement restrictions, at least in the foreseeable future," said Dr Nabarro.

"They will be localized but I don't think they will be nationwide movement restriction unless Ireland is very, very unlucky."

Just when we're looking at the end of the Tunnel, we're back to restrictions, the one thing Mr Nabarro fails to grasp is our Government don't do regional restrictions, it's all or nothing.

Is this Indian variant worse than we're being lead to believe?

ohhh ye . hamilton beach blender

Del Griffith · 22-05-2021 5:05am

What about the killer bees? When will they get here?

Between them, the Y2K bug and the Indian variant what chance have we got at all...

lawrencesummers · 22-05-2021 5:15am

Is nabbaro the Spanish for holohan?

yaboya1 · 22-05-2021 6:49am

JeffKenna wrote: »

Paddy Power quoting evens on the vaccines and 2/1 on the variants.

I'll have €500 on at evens and €330 on at 2/1 please.

p.s. don't take up bookmaking

22-05-2021 7:21am

We’re in a desperate situation financially now. If a variant actually does manage to bypass the vaccines then we’ll need a solution that doesn’t involve forcing people out of work or closing society.

What’s the alternative? Wait around for another 2 years while a new vaccine is developed, tested, approved, rolled out?

And what if a new variant then emerges?

(WHO) expert believes Ireland will have to re-impose regional restrictions

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