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(WHO) expert believes Ireland will have to re-impose regional restrictions

  • 21-05-2021 10:32am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    Dr Nabarro also believes the Indian variant will grow here.

    He said that incidence of the variant will increase and it will be necessary to occasionally restrict movement and introduce widespread testing.

    "There are going to be movement restrictions, at least in the foreseeable future," said Dr Nabarro.

    "They will be localized but I don't think they will be nationwide movement restriction unless Ireland is very, very unlucky."

    Just when we're looking at the end of the Tunnel, we're back to restrictions, the one thing Mr Nabarro fails to grasp is our Government don't do regional restrictions, it's all or nothing.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40294880.html

    Is this Indian variant worse than we're being lead to believe?


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Comments

  • Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 9,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Hellrazer


    I thought the evidence was that the current vaccines are working against the Indian Variant.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,725 ✭✭✭✭ wes


    I think if variant spreads faster than we can vaccinate, I guess it could happen. We are still vulnerable, until we reach herd immunity, and need to be very careful with opening up. IMO, the situation is a constant tight rope.


  • Registered Users Posts: 72,121 ✭✭✭✭ Atlantic Dawn


    It's over, no more restrictions, vaccines are the end game.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,579 ✭✭✭ micks_address


    WHO yesterday said all variants including the indian one are covered by vaccines... if we vaccinate enough people won't be any need for lockdowns.. people will still get covid.. even vaccinated people but the numbers will be so low in terms of serious illness and hospital admissions that it won't register more than the seasonal flu


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    Hellrazer wrote: »
    I thought the evidence was that the current vaccines are working against the Indian Variant.

    Around 75% the report said for Pfizer but I think there's 4 or 5 sub strains, the report doesn't name the study so I'm not sure it covered all the variants of the variant.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,046 ✭✭✭ funnydoggy


    I dunno what to believe.

    We've been through different variants since the start of this and it's never been as bad as once feared. I feel cautiously optimistic, especially as our vaccines ramp up and Professor Neil Ferguson in the UK saying that the variant isn't spreading as fast over there as they initially feared (I know they've got more vaccinations done though).

    I'm only a layperson though *shrugs*


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,740 ✭✭✭ ongarite


    There is no evidence that the Indian variant in the UK spreads any faster or evades vaccines.
    We had this initial panic before with Brazilian and South African variants.

    The reason for large number of cases in Bolton and other northern towns is complete failure of test and trace system.
    Local councils were not informed for 3 weeks that there were cases.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57186059


  • Registered Users Posts: 643 ✭✭✭ Glaceon


    Around 75% the report said for Pfizer but I think there's 4 or 5 sub strains, the report doesn't name the study so I'm not sure it covered all the variants of the variant.
    I heard something similar on Drivetime last week. An epidemiologist said that there's three strains of what we call the Indian variant. One of them does appear to have some resistance to vaccines but it's not spreading rapidly. I'm definitely feeling more optimistic than I was even a few weeks ago.


  • Registered Users Posts: 141 ✭✭ Bot1


    We're at a point worldwide where we have a good number of people vaccinated with a sizeable group unvaccinated.

    If the vaccines prevent infection, there is Darwinian pressure on the virus to circumvent the vaccine by changing it's spike protein etc.

    It's not back to normal for a while yet and I'd say we are facing into more restrictions come September.

    They need to be measured restrictions and focus on eliminating unnecessary risks - like working in an office when you can WFH.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,046 ✭✭✭ funnydoggy


    Bot1 wrote: »

    It's not back to normal for a while yet and I'd say we are facing into more restrictions come September.

    I dunno, I don't see it. People will not follow more restrictions in September whatsoever. Especially when we'll have close to herd immunity by then.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,326 ✭✭✭ ginoginelli


    funnydoggy wrote: »
    I dunno what to believe.

    We've been through different variants since the start of this and it's never been as bad as once feared. I feel cautiously optimistic, especially as our vaccines ramp up and Professor Neil Ferguson in the UK saying that the variant isn't spreading as fast over there as they initially feared (I know they've got more vaccinations done though).

    I'm only a layperson though *shrugs*


    The Kent variant was worse than we feared.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭ munchkin_utd


    Glaceon wrote: »
    I heard something similar on Drivetime last week. An epidemiologist said that there's three strains of what we call the Indian variant. One of them does appear to have some resistance to vaccines but it's not spreading rapidly. I'm definitely feeling more optimistic than I was even a few weeks ago.
    having a bit more resistance to the vaccine means more people get symptoms (like a case of a runny nose or a cough or loss of taste) or test positive BUT , and this is where people really arent turning on their brain and seeing the bigger picture, it still is more or less as effective in avoiding hospital stays or death. Death is a balls for the sufferer and their family, a sniffle isnt.

    We are in a panic for the past year because people are getting really sick, or dying, from covid. Not because people get a bit of a cold from it.
    If the vaccine stops people from dying, but is "less effective" when measuring those who get a cold, really, who cares ?

    Most of us dont take the flu vaccine as we dont care if we get the flu. We put up with the risk of being in bed, but mostly brush it off. With a vaccine, covid becomes something similar, regardless of the variant strain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,326 ✭✭✭ ginoginelli


    funnydoggy wrote: »
    I dunno, I don't see it. People will not follow more restrictions in September whatsoever. Especially when we'll have close to herd immunity by then.

    I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be in a good place by september and have this virus under control, especially if we start vaccinating the 12 - 15 yr olds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,046 ✭✭✭ funnydoggy


    The Kent variant was worse than we feared.

    Which one was that again? There's been so many lol

    Was that the one around Christmas? Mike Ryan from the WHO said that it wasn't that variant that caused the surge, it was people socialising.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,326 ✭✭✭ ginoginelli


    funnydoggy wrote: »
    Which one was that again? There's been so many lol

    Was that the one around Christmas? Mike Ryan from the WHO said that it wasn't that variant that caused the surge, it was people socialising.

    Yes. The b117. Probably a combination of the two led to the surge at Christmas. The b117 is recognized as a gamechanger though, and its higher trasmission was initially underestimated.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,046 ✭✭✭ funnydoggy


    Yes. The b117. Probably a combination of the two led to the surge at Christmas. The b117 is recognized as a gamechanger though, and its higher trasmission was initially underestimated.

    Ah I get you re: transmission now :)

    Yeah I can see that alright! We're hovering around 400 cases a day for the past few weeks now, I wonder is that the 'low' given the variants at play.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,166 ✭✭✭✭ NIMAN


    Rightly or wrongly, if the Gov reintroduce restrictions they will suffer.
    I don't think there is any will among the population to continue lockdowns. They only want to see it go one way from here on, and thats open, open, open.


  • Registered Users Posts: 744 ✭✭✭ Kewreeuss


    Here now, Dr Navarro, why don’t you go away somewhere nice and stop trying to scare us?


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    NIMAN wrote: »
    Rightly or wrongly, if the Gov reintroduce restrictions they will suffer.
    I don't think there is any will among the population to continue lockdowns. They only want to see it go one way from here on, and thats open, open, open.

    The majority of people seem to be in support of their decisions, AOC has turned into a national hero if he says we're locking down again it will happen, Leo might throw it up to him but MM certainly won't.
    I hope your right and it's full steam ahead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭ agoodpunt


    And this wont help either 3 suspected from india flee quarrantine

    https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/officials-hunt-three-relatives-who-24150643


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,245 ✭✭✭✭ bodhrandude


    Can we not just tell the virus to fcuk right off forever. :)

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,046 ✭✭✭ funnydoggy


    The majority of people seem to be in support of their decisions, AOC has turned into a national hero if he says we're locking down again it will happen, Leo might throw it up to him but MM certainly won't.
    I hope your right and it's full steam ahead.

    Who's AOC?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,307 ✭✭✭✭ Spanish Eyes


    How long is vaccination effective for? Is it six months, a year, forever what?

    That is a question that hasn't been answered yet, and to me it's an important one also. I suppose until a certain time has elapsed in the vax program we won't know. And Winter surges are a possibility too I suppose.

    Just thinking out loud.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    How long is vaccination effective for? Is it six months, a year, forever what?

    I read yesterday they're looking at starting the 3rd Pfizer shot in America around September, what's that about 4mts per jab.
    Pfizer do hope to have an antiviral tablet cure out by the end of the year, that'll be a big boost if it happens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,357 ✭✭✭ Micky 32


    Ah yes i remember well all the doomsday predictions:


    https://twitter.com/jewellerydiva/status/1393321680651567105?s=21


    The vaccines are here and over 200k being injected a week. I can tell you now Ireland won’t be locking me up come September.

    This shyte never quits.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,046 ✭✭✭ funnydoggy


    How long is vaccination effective for? Is it six months, a year, forever what?

    That is a question that hasn't been answered yet, and to me it's an important one also. I suppose until a certain time has elapsed in the vax program we won't know. And Winter surges are a possibility too I suppose.

    Just thinking out loud.


    However long antibodies stay for, the body's T-cells stay around a LOT longer and play a big role in fighting infection. If I'm recalling correctly, they found that even SARS survivors still have T-cells to fight SARS to this day. I have the details all fudgy so I hope somebody corrects me :)


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,409 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    The UK are saying this variant will become the dominant one there possibly in the next week or so. I suspect the concern is overspill with large numbers here not vaccinated

    I guess another concern may be if this variant mutates further


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,894 ✭✭✭ Deeper Blue


    We heard the same about the South Africa and Brazil variants.

    There'll always be an expert somewhere making predictions, most of which never come to pass.

    But they're great for clicks and column inches.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,359 ✭✭✭ Silentcorner


    We heard the same about the South Africa and Brazil variants.

    There'll always be an expert somewhere making predictions, most of which never come to pass.

    But they're great for clicks and column inches.

    It's no accident we were hit with a "highly transmissible" variant during the time of year virus are most likely to transmit in big numbers.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭ screamer


    Beasty wrote: »
    The UK are saying this variant will become the dominant one there possibly in the next week or so. I suspect the concern is overspill with large numbers here not vaccinated

    I guess another concern may be if this variant mutates further

    Yes, it’s outcompeting all other strains. Problematic for us in Ireland as we’re nowhere near herd immunity and we saw what the imported original uk variant did here after Christmas- 5 months of lockdown later. Anyways equally worrying is that this is not virus transmission season, it should be slowing down significantly. Finally, we all need to understand that if other vaccine evading strains come along, we could well be forced back into lockdown. Vaccines are only the end game when they are effective against the attacker, otherwise it’s game on for the virus. I’m hoping beyond hope that is not the case, but it’s a possibility.


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