2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths · 07-05-2021 02:37PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Depends on if or how much property values fall I guess. When the newspapers publish those household wealth reports, what percentage is down to property values?

A huge amount. Far greater than what they earn.

But values falling due to an increase in supply of repossessed homes is not going to translate into a drop in what they earn.

yagan · 07-05-2021 02:49PM

schmittel wrote: »

I think this political suicide thing is another fairly weak argument against repossessions.

Where did I argue against it?

I said after this weeks events it's not a political priority.

Older voters secure in their high valued mortgage free property suddenly cop that vulture funds can snag the house next door and move in the neighbours from hell because no matter what their own government has guaranteed a rental income stream from their tax money!

I'd be infavour of a better repossession regime, but I do not see them causing the reason that a mortgage approved FTB is being outbid by their own tax money and rent farmers.

It's grand to have an international economy, but internationalising the housing stock is leading to voter repulsion.

Again I say imagine yourself on the doorstep trying to persuade voters that repos will solve everything and you'll be told to go shove it.

And to iterate I support a better repo regime, but until the car crash that successive government have created is untangled I reckon repo reform is down the priority list.

Hubertj · 07-05-2021 02:50PM

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/43-leeson-park-ranelagh-dublin-6-d06nr40/4498886

This is very nice but €4m? Kitchen seems very “meh”

hometruths · 07-05-2021 02:56PM

yagan wrote: »

Where did I argue against it?

I said after this weeks events it's not a political priority.

Older voters secure in their high valued mortgage free property suddenly cop that vulture funds can snag the house next door and move in the neighbours from hell because no matter what their own government has guaranteed a rental income stream from their tax money!

I'd be infavour of a better repossession regime, but I do not see them causing the reason that a mortgage approved FTB is being outbid by their own tax money and rent farmers.

It's grand to have an international economy, but internationalising the housing stock is leading to voter repulsion.

Again I say imagine yourself on the doorstep trying to persuade voters that repos will solve everything and you'll be told to go shove it.

And to iterate I support a better repo regime, but until the car crash that successive government have created is untangled I reckon repo reform is down the priority list.

By weak argument I meant it is trotted out a lot whenever anybody mentions that we should be repossessing.

As long as the electorate believe that repossessing houses would be political suicide then repossessing houses is political suicide and no government will consider it.

It's the electorate's viewpoint that needs to change, not the politicians.

hometruths · 07-05-2021 02:57PM

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/43-leeson-park-ranelagh-dublin-6-d06nr40/4498886

This is very nice but €4m? Kitchen seems very “meh”

John Rocha's house. Designer kitchen.

yagan · 07-05-2021 02:59PM

schmittel wrote: »

It's the electorate's viewpoint that needs to change, not the politicians.

The electorate will embrace repo reform where the property market favours home buyers rather than rent farmers.

hometruths · 07-05-2021 03:01PM

yagan wrote: »

The electorate will embrace repo reform where the property market favours home buyers rather than rent farmers.

Chicken and egg situation. Market will not favour home buyers until the arrears are washed through.

yagan · 07-05-2021 03:16PM

schmittel wrote: »

Chicken and egg situation. Market will not favour home buyers until the arrears are washed through.

It isn't chicken and egg. It's simply institutional money crowding out home buyers.

Prioritising repos won't stop rent farmers domestic and foreign from crowding out home buyers. Infact they'll hoover up the repos while the home buyers remains sidelined from home ownership.

This is not an idealogical position like Micheal Martin would like to believe. This is an absolute mess that needs untangling.

Fianna Fail and FG TDs aren't returning calls and emails because they're getting absolutely battered by their own grassroots who are convulsed by this week.

Edit to add, the Maynooth purchase is an existential crisis for the electorate. Either FFG prioritise homebuyers over foreign and domestic corporate dominance or they'll get wiped out at the voting booth.

Hubertj · 07-05-2021 03:28PM

schmittel wrote: »

John Rocha's house. Designer kitchen.

It’s just plain and white though. Should it not be more designery than that?

hometruths · 07-05-2021 03:38PM

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s just plain and white though. Should it not be more designery than that?

It's not my thing, but I think a lot of plain and white passes for top design!

timmyntc · 07-05-2021 03:40PM

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s just plain and white though. Should it not be more designery than that?

As a designer he obviously appreciates that most "designery" stuff is just a fad and goes out of date after a few years!

Arthur Daley · 07-05-2021 03:45PM

It's a very minimalist way of living for the size of the place. Couldn't be a hoarder living there anyway

fiachraX · 07-05-2021 03:54PM

Having your bathroom opening onto a terrace is a bit different anyway!

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Hubertj · 07-05-2021 04:10PM

fiachraX wrote: »

Having your bathroom opening onto a terrace is a bit different anyway!

Didn’t even notice that! Plenty of privacy at least!

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 04:28PM

Beigepaint wrote: »

You are living in a rage fantasy and it is the responsibility of sensible people like me who comment in this thread to challenge you.

You understand that lots of people from all over the political spectrum read this thread eg. TD's staff, radio station researchers, interested citizens with money to invest and thousands of couples who wonder if they will afford to both buy a house AND have kids.

When you post things like this you are really flagging yourself as totally out of touch. We have never had a left government in this country and we have very few lefty policies. This is why our housing crisis is international news. New York Times Link. The small number of NEETs in this country is not something you should be in a lather about. Some people will never work. It's the same in every country. There are not that many people like that. Get over it. Stop worrying about it. Move on.

Politicians watch the demographics and they know that eventually the people in my generation who are locked out of property will reach a critical mass and then they will start pandering to us.
Probably another ten years to go. Until then, the older people 60+ will be taken care of at the expense of my generation.

My dream is that non rich people will once again be able to afford to get married, have kids and buy houses before they are 30.

I'm 32, so I missed out on that, but I would like my younger sister who is 20, and my younger work colleagues to have the opportunities that my parents had in the 80s.

We may never have had an actively open left leaning government but when it comes to policy we are very left leaning. I dont know how you can say we have very few left leaning policies when we are paid out 23 Billion in welfare last year alone. Is that not sharing the wealth enough for you? If you cannot see this then I am afraid its you who is out of touch with reality. You only have to look our welfare rates and if we were not that left leaning with so much support for our poor we would not of had we had an influx of migration into the country in the 4/5 years before Covid. The country is rife with people looking for handouts and for bailing out the Rich. Dont get me wrong its not just the lefties in here its the people who think they should be allowed stay in their house without paying the mortgage and its left to those in the middle to continuously pay for all while being asked to pay again for any service they use such as GP, Hospitals etc. Yet you think this is ok and then you tell me to not worry about it. Well if you cant afford a house its ok dont worry about it? MOVE ON? How does that feel. You need to understand that while we are overpaying our public servants both current and retired as well as our welfare rates money is been taken away from other areas like housing but you dont seem to be able to join those dots with this regard.

Just as an example of our left leaning policies one which will hit home to your and your current narrative. So your in your 30s and your working and trying to afford to have kids and a house, Yet if a person decides (say a young lady) to say feck this working malarky they can have a few kids and be given a gaff while your left working not being able to afford your own kids yet your expected to pay for theres. So do you think this is fair? Your blinkered if you think this country is not left leaning.

So if you want your dream just bang out a few kids and go on the housing list the more kids the higher up your bumped in the queue for a house..

The problem currently with housing is that we have not got enough houses and that REITS/vultures funds and the government are soaking up what little supply is there. Why are the government doing this?? The main reason is Sinn Fein have been breathing down FF/FGs necks over the last 3/4 years and their main bone of contention has been housing and the lefties are shouting loudest about homeless people and people not getting on the ladder and the government have been panicking and scrambling over the last few years throw in Covid and the ability to build being stymied along side the issue of REITS/Vultures buying up full property complexes. The govenment in their infinite wisdom have decided the quickest way is to try and sort out housing is buy, competing with other FTBs and other couples buying property as well as opening up rental schemes where they are paying the highest penny for rentals.

People on here think it should be up to existing home owners to pay more to help others who have not got a house which is wrong. They have already paid and as long as they are working they will be paying continuously through taxation. As I said you have choices you are in your 30s no one owes you anything. If you want a house save for it. If you want it sooner buy a smaller house in an area that is not located in one of highly populated areas in the country. If you dont want to support our golden oldies you can leave the country you have a choice to stay here or not.

Also remember your parents didnt have it all handy you need to look at what the interest rates were on mortgages and stamp duty rates were on houses back then as well as unemployment rates and emigration rates where back in the 80s before you think it was all fairy tales and gold dust. They just didnt kick up a fuss and moved away and got on with their lifes if there was no work or could not afford a house.. There has never been an period where buying a house was easy for working people.

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 04:32PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I do agree that the best thing for the housing market would be an economic crash. Given the watery foundation on which the economy is built (ie morally devoid MNC growth and tax avoidance practices), I don't think it would be that big of a deal for us to have to be forced into a more diverse way in how we grow our economy. Losing the massive immigration stream from other EU countries in order to fill customer service roles in Big Tech subsidiaries would do wonders for the housing crisis.

I cant believe people think a crash will help when it comes to peoples ability to buy a property. If anything during a crash the rich get richer as they are in a position to capitalize while those looking to buy will see finances further restricted on them. Be careful what you wish for.

timmyntc · 07-05-2021 04:34PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I cant believe people think a crash will help when it comes to a crash. If anything during a crash the rich get richer as they are in a position to capalise while those looking to buy will see finances further restricted on them. Be careful what you wish for.

When most people have no assets, nothing to lose because theyve been bled dry by high rents - why is it any surprise they would favour an economic crash?

Also if Irish property were to crash - not nearly as much of our economy or tax revenues are dependent on construction as was the case in 08. So plenty of people would still have jobs, savings etc and could possibly buy.

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 04:37PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Swift evictions for anti social behaviour would actually allow better utilisation of existing rental stock than we have right now.

Being able to quickly evict a tenant before they destroy the property means less downtime trying to fix up the place before it can be re-let.
Council properties in particular can have 6 months+ of vacancy between tenants because so much work needs done.

The problem is most of those indulging in anti social behavior will have been afforded the property via the state and will still have to be housed so all your doing is moving the problem. Or do you suggest we just leave them homeless.

Browney7 · 07-05-2021 04:40PM

fliball123 wrote: »

We may never have had an actively open left leaning government but when it comes to policy we are very left leaning. I dont know how you can say we have very few left leaning policies when we are paid out 23 Billion in welfare last year alone. Is that not sharing the wealth enough for you? If you cannot see this then I am afraid its you who is out of touch with reality. You only have to look our welfare rates and if we were not that left leaning with so much support for our poor we would not of had we had an influx of migration into the country in the 4/5 years before Covid. The country is rife with people looking for handouts and for bailing out the Rich. Dont get me wrong its not just the lefties in here its the people who think they should be allowed stay in their house without paying the mortgage and its left to those in the middle to continuously pay for all while being asked to pay again for any service they use such as GP, Hospitals etc. Yet you think this is ok and then you tell me to not worry about it. Well if you cant afford a house its ok dont worry about it? MOVE ON? How does that feel. You need to understand that while we are overpaying our public servants both current and retired as well as our welfare rates money is been taken away from other areas like housing but you dont seem to be able to join those dots with this regard.

Just as an example of our left leaning policies one which will hit home to your and your current narrative. So your in your 30s and your working and trying to afford to have kids and a house, Yet if a person decides (say a young lady) to say feck this working malarky they can have a few kids and be given a gaff while your left working not being able to afford your own kids yet your expected to pay for theres. So do you think this is fair? Your blinkered if you think this country is not left leaning.

So if you want your dream just bang out a few kids and go on the housing list the more kids the higher up your bumped in the queue for a house..

The problem currently with housing is that we have not got enough houses and that REITS/vultures funds and the government are soaking up what little supply is there. Why are the government doing this?? The main reason is Sinn Fein have been breathing down FF/FGs necks over the last 3/4 years and their main bone of contention has been housing and the lefties are shouting loudest about homeless people and people not getting on the ladder and the government have been panicking and scrambling over the last few years throw in Covid and the ability to build being stymied along side the issue of REITS/Vultures buying up full property complexes. The govenment in their infinite wisdom have decided the quickest way is to try and sort out housing is buy, competing with other FTBs and other couples buying property as well as opening up rental schemes where they are paying the highest penny for rentals.

People on here think it should be up to existing home owners to pay more to help others who have not got a house which is wrong. They have already paid and as long as they are working they will be paying continuously through taxation. As I said you have choices you are in your 30s no one owes you anything. If you want a house save for it. If you want it sooner buy a smaller house in an area that is not located in one of highly populated areas in the country. If you dont want to support our golden oldies you can leave the country you have a choice to stay here or not.

Also remember your parents didnt have it all handy you need to look at what the interest rates were on mortgages and stamp duty rates were on houses back then as well as unemployment rates and emigration rates where back in the 80s before you think it was all fairy tales and gold dust. They just didnt kick up a fuss and moved away and got on with their lifes if there was no work or could not afford a house.. There has never been an period where buying a house was easy for working people.

You keep spouting about the 23 billion despite it being pointed out to you several times that the majority of social welfare spend is the old age pension

Amadan Dubh · 07-05-2021 04:46PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I cant believe people think a crash will help when it comes to a crash. If anything during a crash the rich get richer as they are in a position to capalise while those looking to buy will see finances further restricted on them. Be careful what you wish for.

I mean, I am specifying that it would help the housing crisis, not necessarily that it would be of benefit to the country as a whole. But apparently things have been booming in Ireland the past few years but I don't understand how this can be said to be the case. Why? Little wage growth, no housing, infrastructure, health investment, no promised income tax/USC reforms, no incentive to save money, insurance and childcare costs sky rocketing. If the last few years are to be seen as "growth" then I sort of think this like the doublespeak used in Orwell's 1984.

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 04:47PM

RichardAnd wrote: »

Voting is one thing, but even if such a party existed, and it won a land-slide victory, what would change? There are still legions of civil servants, advisors, NGOs, etc. behind the scene who have enormous influence. Those people don't go away with elections.

In my more cynical moments, I ask myself whether politicians exist merely to give us the illusion that we have a say and to present a target for ire.

IMO there will be no change until politicians are financially held accountable for their actions there will be no change. All parties should be forced to put up a 10 point plan (no waffle and in simple language so everyone can understand what they are trying to achieve) of what 10 things they want to change, improve or remove from the Irish peoples lifes. If the 10 things ring a bell with you then vote for them. If the party only implement 1 thing in their 4 year stint in government then the politician should only be only entitled to 1/10th of their pension. There is absolutely no punishment for lies that politicians spout and while this remains unchecked and unpunished they will continue in the same vain. For those who think SF are the great white hope your in for an shock if they do get in.

hometruths · 07-05-2021 04:50PM

yagan wrote: »

It isn't chicken and egg. It's simply institutional money crowding out home buyers.

Prioritising repos won't stop rent farmers domestic and foreign from crowding out home buyers. Infact they'll hoover up the repos while the home buyers remains sidelined from home ownership.

This is not an idealogical position like Micheal Martin would like to believe. This is an absolute mess that needs untangling.

Fianna Fail and FG TDs aren't returning calls and emails because they're getting absolutely battered by their own grassroots who are convulsed by this week.

Edit to add, the Maynooth purchase is an existential crisis for the electorate. Either FFG prioritise homebuyers over foreign and domestic corporate dominance or they'll get wiped out at the voting booth.

According to the Indo the cuckoo funds owned 15,500 properties in Ireland as of Jan 21:

Cuckoo funds continued to gobble up swathes of the residential property market last year, despite the pandemic, and now own a combined 15,500 homes here.

So on the face of it that is 15,500 homebuyers that have been crowded out by institutional money. However it is important to remember that a proportion of those 15,500 are units that were financed by the funds before a sod was even turned, meaning that they would not have been built otherwise:

These so-called forward-commit transactions accounted for 54pc of spend in residential investment in 2020 and will add to overall housing supply into the future.

There are almost 85,000 PDHs in arrears greater than 2 years.

So whilst the funds are crowding out home buyers at least they are paying their way, which has some economic benefits, and they provide some turnover in the market and much needed rental supply.

By contrast the 85,000 mortgagees in default are an economic drain on all of us, paying nothing for a scarce resource.

There are over 5 times as many defaulters crowding out home buyers than institutional money.

This is also an absolute mess that needs untangling. Both problems need solving.

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 04:51PM

Shelga wrote: »

Agree completely. Very aware that I really do not want to become like these politicians- if by some miracle I buy a shoebox apartment, I then turn my focus to ensuring its value doesn't drop. It's so selfish and short-sighted. Reminds me of the establishment teachers screwing over new entrants and is everything I don't like about Ireland (I do like rather a lot, but it's hard not to feel depressed and negative this year).

I want a politican who is also thinking about how we can make housing work for young people in 20/30/40 years time- we do not have to live like this and I don't accept that "that's just how it is".

Do you think existing home owners have a magic power to force property prices up in this country. Where are people getting this idea? Why are people blaming the current crisis on existing home owners? Last I checked they were not responsible for building houses

fliball123 · 07-05-2021 04:54PM

C14N wrote: »

I actually don't agree. Might sound cold but I think elderly people living in large family homes (many of which are not up to modern-day building codes) with gardens in high-demand areas that they happened to buy on the cheap 30 or 40 years ago is an inefficent use of land and should generally be discouraged by public policy instead of protected. At the same time, it should be made easy to move out and find new smaller places within their community, but both push and pull effects are important. Maybe not as big a deal in small towns or the countryside, but more in city centers and surrounding areas.

We are moving closer and closer to Karl Marx here. You do realise that these people will have paid huge amounts on interest for this house, not to mention what they have spent on their house. Why should it be up to existing home owners to supply houses for those who have not got one?

timmyntc · 07-05-2021 04:58PM

fliball123 wrote: »

We are moving closer and closer to Karl Marx here. You do realise that these people will have paid huge amounts on interest for this house, not to mention what they have spent on their house. Why should it be up to existing home owners to supply houses for those who have not got one?

Same thing could be said for people hoarding land or empty buildings.
At what point does hoarding more resources than you need go from good to bad?
Hoarding an extra house is bad, but an extra 2 or 3 bedrooms is fine?

A pensioner couple in a big 4 bed house are living in something well beyond what they "need". Hardly Karl Marx to incentivise them to downsize.

Jinglejangle69 · 07-05-2021 05:00PM

fliball123 wrote: »

The problem is most of those indulging in anti social behavior will have been afforded the property via the state and will still have to be housed so all your doing is moving the problem. Or do you suggest we just leave them homeless.

Yes.

EddieN75 · 07-05-2021 05:02PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Same thing could be said for people hoarding land or empty buildings.
At what point does hoarding more resources than you need go from good to bad?
Hoarding an extra house is bad, but an extra 2 or 3 bedrooms is fine?

A pensioner couple in a big 4 bed house are living in something well beyond what they "need". Hardly Karl Marx to incentivise them to downsize.

Family home with a lifetime of memories.
May have built it from scratch.
I don't see why they should be incentivised to give it up.

Jinglejangle69 · 07-05-2021 05:04PM

fliball123 wrote: »

We may never have had an actively open left leaning government but when it comes to policy we are very left leaning. I dont know how you can say we have very few left leaning policies when we are paid out 23 Billion in welfare last year alone. Is that not sharing the wealth enough for you? If you cannot see this then I am afraid its you who is out of touch with reality. You only have to look our welfare rates and if we were not that left leaning with so much support for our poor we would not of had we had an influx of migration into the country in the 4/5 years before Covid. The country is rife with people looking for handouts and for bailing out the Rich. Dont get me wrong its not just the lefties in here its the people who think they should be allowed stay in their house without paying the mortgage and its left to those in the middle to continuously pay for all while being asked to pay again for any service they use such as GP, Hospitals etc. Yet you think this is ok and then you tell me to not worry about it. Well if you cant afford a house its ok dont worry about it? MOVE ON? How does that feel. You need to understand that while we are overpaying our public servants both current and retired as well as our welfare rates money is been taken away from other areas like housing but you dont seem to be able to join those dots with this regard.

Just as an example of our left leaning policies one which will hit home to your and your current narrative. So your in your 30s and your working and trying to afford to have kids and a house, Yet if a person decides (say a young lady) to say feck this working malarky they can have a few kids and be given a gaff while your left working not being able to afford your own kids yet your expected to pay for theres. So do you think this is fair? Your blinkered if you think this country is not left leaning.

So if you want your dream just bang out a few kids and go on the housing list the more kids the higher up your bumped in the queue for a house..

The problem currently with housing is that we have not got enough houses and that REITS/vultures funds and the government are soaking up what little supply is there. Why are the government doing this?? The main reason is Sinn Fein have been breathing down FF/FGs necks over the last 3/4 years and their main bone of contention has been housing and the lefties are shouting loudest about homeless people and people not getting on the ladder and the government have been panicking and scrambling over the last few years throw in Covid and the ability to build being stymied along side the issue of REITS/Vultures buying up full property complexes. The govenment in their infinite wisdom have decided the quickest way is to try and sort out housing is buy, competing with other FTBs and other couples buying property as well as opening up rental schemes where they are paying the highest penny for rentals.

People on here think it should be up to existing home owners to pay more to help others who have not got a house which is wrong. They have already paid and as long as they are working they will be paying continuously through taxation. As I said you have choices you are in your 30s no one owes you anything. If you want a house save for it. If you want it sooner buy a smaller house in an area that is not located in one of highly populated areas in the country. If you dont want to support our golden oldies you can leave the country you have a choice to stay here or not.

Also remember your parents didnt have it all handy you need to look at what the interest rates were on mortgages and stamp duty rates were on houses back then as well as unemployment rates and emigration rates where back in the 80s before you think it was all fairy tales and gold dust. They just didnt kick up a fuss and moved away and got on with their lifes if there was no work or could not afford a house.. There has never been an period where buying a house was easy for working people.

Excellent post.

tigger123 · 07-05-2021 05:04PM

EddieN75 wrote: »

Family home with a lifetime of memories.
May have built it from scratch.
I don't see why they should be incentivised to give it up.

I think the key-word is incentivised. Not forced to give it up.

timmyntc · 07-05-2021 05:05PM

EddieN75 wrote: »

Family home with a lifetime of memories.
May have built it from scratch.
I don't see why they should be incentivised to give it up.

I and other posters have made clear why they should be incentivised to give it up. Not forced.

They have the right to stay in it of course, but it should be made attractive to downsize and maybe use some of the extra equity to enjoy the rest of their life.
Old houses in prime central locations will have to be redeveloped into something denser going forward. Instead of waiting till death & probate to buy the house - there should be clear incentives for pensioners to downsize instead.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1