2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Villa05

Mic 1972 wrote:

First time buyers are better off looking for second hand properties inside established estates where there is no competition from multinational investors and also there is no risk for social house next door.

There is always the possibility in established estates but much reduced.
But a very interesting point that also puzzled me.
Why would you pay top dollar in one of these new estates with the potential for wholesale social in them

Developers paid handsomely to avoid these social contracts in the last boom. There was a reason and that reason has not gone away

hometruths

Villa05 wrote: »

Lorcan reckons the maynooth estate will be leased back to the council. Did someone here say the council was the underbidder and is there a link to this

It was reported in SBP. Had hard hard copy, no link:

L1011

Lots of discussion on the council/Tuath purchase over in the Kildare forum - they had scaled down from looking to buy most of the 170 to about 90.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

If you get a chance. Have a listen to Pat Kenny from Thursday section

Why are so called vulture funds buying up property here?

(sorry linking on the phone app does not work for me. html without tags appears to be auto rejected and does not get posted)

Lorcan sirr and Mark mcsharry Ff

Check out the terms of the enhanced long term leases the councils are engaged in
It's much worse for the taxpayer than we had speculated. We could be approaching 6 or 7 houses being built for the outlay being spent on 1 of these over 20 years and have nothing at the end of it

Lorcan reckons the maynooth estate will be leased back to the council. Did someone here say the council was the underbidder and is there a link to this

Marc Mcsharry has an interesting slip of the tongue on 16 minutes
In trying to say Gov and councils should be building houses, he says buying then purchasing before eventually settling on building.
Has he left the cat out of the bag?

Props gets alot of hassle here for his opinions, but he has a consistent habit of calling it correctly

I’d say the statements made in the Dail mean that estate won’t get leased to the council.

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

But a very interesting point that also puzzled me.
Why would you pay top dollar in one of these new estates with the potential for wholesale social in them

Availability of finance. Finance is too much loaded in favour of new builds. At present in Limerick a new build in Mungret gate is costing 290k. As a FTB you access the 10% tax relief which is 29k. It's easier to access the finance from the bank if you are within the 3.5 times wages criteria. A couple on 70k between them can borrow nearly 250k. Add in 10% deposit saved and you have all the finance sorted. You can access such a house with a mortgage of 232k or wages of 66k at 3.5 time ration or 58k with 4 times wages and exemptions.

A older house say costing 250k needing a 50k refurbishment for the same couple's. While they can achieve the mortgage pretty easy they forego the 29k tax refund but bank will only lend them 90% max. This is 225k so they are left with 4k of there savings. They will have to jump through hoops to access the rest of the cash or borrow through personal lending at 6-7%. And all that if the house passes an engineer report. This will cost them in the region of 2-3k and stamp duty will leaving them with none of the 29k deposit saved.

I am not saying that the new houses builders are creaming it 290k. It interesting that in a development of 6 houses in a village near me are going on the market at 240k. These were originally started in the last boom and abandoned at wallplate level. Small builder bought them at about 50k/unit and completed them recently they are not flying off the shelf as far as I can see

jill_valentine

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www-thejournal-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.thejournal.ie/investor-funds-housing-crisis-5431560-May2021/?amp=1

Where it is viable to do so, the proletariat can have some of the crumbs from our table. Also, "the concept" of individuals being allowed to buy their own home. I'm sorry Pat Farrell, but you are part of the pig elites from Animal Farm. Vultures with their snouts so buried in the trough they do not realise how despicable they sound.

We are not in dire economic straits like 2011, needing to go cap in hand on international roadshows looking to get a few borrowers out of negative equity. Jobs growth has been phenomenal and is projected to remain so (for now anyway), as well as the population growth projecting to rise substantially and, finally, savings are high while individual debt is low. We do not need these investors in the same way as before so should not be afraid to start charging them a premium for doing business in Ireland rather than rolling out the red carpet for them with tax benefits and other things.

Just as a reminder for the sake of it - these chaps, the IIP, who would so generously consider allowing a number of serfs to buy a plot, got the IT to print a full on puff piece about how brilliant the Shared Equity scheme actually is, with the framing we're all just too stupid to appreciate it and a disclosure of Pat Farrell's affiliation only very delicately tucked in at the very end, on Monday.

MacronvFrugals

Some interesting bits from Daniel McConnels piece this morning


Firstly the optics of the headline are shocking for the main parties, a similar headline ran on The Journal last week and has 110k + views, way more than most articles ever to.

“Why would any young person vote for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael”

Finally those within FG were unhappy at Paschals “overly defensive” attitude towards previous tax breaks for funds that Noonan introduced.

One senior party member said “there was nothing stopping him coming out and saying such investment trusts were needed in 2012 and 2013 but have served their purpose and we’re changing the rules. He was too defensive and colleagues were not very happy”


https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-40283879.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Zenify

Really happy to see the tone of posts the last couple of months in this forum. It has gone from arguing over increase vs decrease in price to everyone just fed up with the current policies.

Here's to change around the corner...

Hopefully......

Cal4567

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Regarding long term leasing to the council, it's important to point out that a lot of estates - especially apartment blocks and gated estates - have restrictions that don't allow for social housing.
Investment companies have no interest acquiring random residential properties that cannot be rented out to the council. They will focus solely on new builds - new estates or new apartment blocks - so that they can set their own management rules and allow for social housing.

First time buyers are better off looking for second hand properties inside established estates where there is no competition from multinational investors and also there is no risk for social house next door.

Not entirely correct. These guys have been acquiring single properties as well as packages. I hear others have been doing too and then putting them together as 'portfolios' for either other investment vehicles or Councils. I agree though at the moment for FTBs, it is probably more sensible to buy second hand.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/solas-living-pays-40m-for-157-homes-across-dublin-and-kildare-1.4530153

JimmyVik

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Some interesting bits from Daniel McConnels piece this morning


Firstly the optics of the headline are shocking for the main parties, a similar headline ran on The Journal last week and has 110k + views, way more than most articles ever to.




Finally those within FG were unhappy at Paschals “overly defensive” attitude towards previous tax breaks for funds that Noonan introduced.

One senior party member said “there was nothing stopping him coming out and saying such investment trusts were needed in 2012 and 2013 but have served their purpose and we’re changing the rules. He was too defensive and colleagues were not very happy”


https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-40283879.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

I swore I would never vote SF in my life.
I may soon be breaking my promise because I cant bring myself to vote FF/FG anymore.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I’d say the statements made in the Dail mean that estate won’t get leased to the council.

This particular estate, maybe, but I'm pretty sure that was the intention of the eventual buyer.
It's scary that social and affordable is now setting the price of units and out of reach of working folk on high salaries

Suicide economics

Bass Reeves wrote:

A older house say costing 250k needing a 50k refurbishment for the same couple's. While they can achieve the mortgage pretty easy they forego the 29k tax refund but bank will only lend them 90% max. This is 225k so they are left with 4k of there savings. They will have to jump through hoops to access the rest of the cash or borrow through personal lending at 6-7%. And all that if the house passes an engineer report. This will cost them in the region of 2-3k and stamp duty will leaving them with none of the 29k deposit saved.

250k would get you a good 2nd hand home in good area in Limerick. You can fix cosmetic/minor structural issues.
You are powerless on many asb issues

Agreed the government have created a honey trap for our young, but its exactly that a trap. Imagine the effect of adding shared ownership to the mix

Cal4567

Villa05 wrote: »

If you get a chance. Have a listen to Pat Kenny from Thursday section

Why are so called vulture funds buying up property here?

(sorry linking on the phone app does not work for me. html without tags appears to be auto rejected and does not get posted)

Lorcan sirr and Mark mcsharry Ff

Check out the terms of the enhanced long term leases the councils are engaged in
It's much worse for the taxpayer than we had speculated. We could be approaching 6 or 7 houses being built for the outlay being spent on 1 of these over 20 years and have nothing at the end of it

Lorcan reckons the maynooth estate will be leased back to the council. Did someone here say the council was the underbidder and is there a link to this

Marc Mcsharry has an interesting slip of the tongue on 16 minutes
In trying to say Gov and councils should be building houses, he says buying then purchasing before eventually settling on building.
Has he left the cat out of the bag?

Props gets alot of hassle here for his opinions, but he has a consistent habit of calling it correctly

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/home/631163/council-in-negotiations-to-buy-over-140-kildare-homes-prior-to-private-investment-company-coming-in.html

That should fill you in as regards Mullen Park.

The enhanced leasing scheme was brought in during 2017 after lobbying by institutional investors. It was primarily for Councils. The fact that it has taken over 4 years to get to the media's attention is relevant. The likes of Lorcan Sirr and Rory Hearne have been highlighting this since then, never mind Eoin O'Broin. As it was only related to social housing, most of middle Ireland wouldn't have taken much interest.

It was music to the ears of the property industry. It meant an opportunity for more work. That's not just for developers, but also builders, architects, quantity surveyors, Savills, Cushmann & Wakefield. I could go on and on. It's quite an industry. Not just property but also finance.

The turning point was 5 years ago. The launch of the Government's much heralded Rebuilding Ireland programme. It really began to focus the intentions of the World's property finance conglomerates. Ireland was quickly seen as the new go to make good money and a lot less risky than other investments.

One could say good old greed has taken over, which was a catalyst for the financial crash. The acquisition by just the single entity of an estate in Kildare, has focused the eyes on the whole private and social housing property industry.

yagan

JimmyVik wrote: »

I swore I would never vote SF in my life.
I may soon be breaking my promise because I cant bring myself to vote FF/FG anymore.

A friend of mine who's never voted SF told me after the Maynooth purchase he will now. He says he know SF will eventually become the new FF, but the current landlord complex leading government decisions needs intervention.

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

It was reported in SBP. Had hard hard copy, no link:

Thanks for that

L1011 wrote:

Lots of discussion on the council/Tuath purchase over in the Kildare forum - they had scaled down from looking to buy most of the 170 to about 90.

This is akin to to the USA providing adjustable rate mortgages to the poorest for the most expensive properties.
We are going to take property bubbles to a whole new level

Mad_maxx

beggars_bush wrote: »

Huge issue with labour shortages for builders at the moment

thats been the case for several years

Mad_maxx

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Regarding long term leasing to the council, it's important to point out that a lot of estates - especially apartment blocks and gated estates - have restrictions that don't allow for social housing.
Investment companies have no interest acquiring random residential properties that cannot be rented out to the council. They will focus solely on new builds - new estates or new apartment blocks - so that they can set their own management rules and allow for social housing.

First time buyers are better off looking for second hand properties inside established estates where there is no competition from multinational investors and also there is no risk for social house next door.

only from the POV of avoiding social housing , there will be no monetary saving as the cost of doing anything in terms of home improvements at the moment is eye wateringly expensive , never mind labour , material costs have exploded in price , cost of new windows is up about 30% in the past three years

new houses are no more expensive than second hand ones in many cases right now , turn key means and awful lot as fifty thousand does very little with a second hand house right now

Villa05

Bass Reeves wrote:

Availability of finance. Finance is too much loaded in favour of new builds. At present in Limerick a new build in Mungret gate is costing 290k. As a FTB you access the 10% tax relief which is 29k.

There is a thread on the Limerick forum dedicated to the social housing aspect of that development and it would appear the seeds of my fears have been sown

Villa05

jill_valentine wrote:

Just as a reminder for the sake of it - these chaps, the IIP, who would so generously consider allowing a number of serfs to buy a plot, got the IT to print a full on puff piece about how brilliant the Shared Equity scheme actually is, with the framing we're all just too stupid to appreciate it and a disclosure of Pat Farrell's affiliation only very delicately tucked in at the very end, on Monday.

That Same publication stated that the scandal in Davys was a rogue action despite the entire management team being involved and internal controls being bypassed
At the time Davy sponsored there
Insde Business podcast

Follow the money

Amadan Dubh

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Regarding long term leasing to the council, it's important to point out that a lot of estates - especially apartment blocks and gated estates - have restrictions that don't allow for social housing.
Investment companies have no interest acquiring random residential properties that cannot be rented out to the council. They will focus solely on new builds - new estates or new apartment blocks - so that they can set their own management rules and allow for social housing.

First time buyers are better off looking for second hand properties inside established estates where there is no competition from multinational investors and also there is no risk for social house next door.

We could be considered in the FTB bracket (though not very motivated to buy right now given we love the rental and area we live) but my feeling is starting to shift towards looking for the second hand properties in established areas should we look to buy somewhere for this reason you have mentioned. For now, we'll be keeping the powder dry until spring 2023 but I'm leaning towards a second hand house when the time comes.

Villa05

Cal4567 wrote:

Not entirely correct. These guys have been acquiring single properties as well as packages. I hear others have been doing too and then putting them together as 'portfolios' for either other investment vehicles or Councils. I agree though at the moment for FTBs, it is probably more sensible to buy second hand.

Yip, these boards were full of reports of sales falling through as the banks were putting properties into portfolios rather than proceeding with sale back as far as 2014

Villa05

Cal4567 wrote:

One could say good old greed has taken over, which was a catalyst for the financial crash. The acquisition by just the single entity of an estate in Kildare, has focused the eyes on the whole private and social housing property industry.

This could mothball very quickly, it's not just home seekers affected. Business is severely impacted by rents especially post covid. One could see a national down tools and all out protest supported by business and MNC.

Lines are being crossed

Sweet.Science

I suppose councils need these funds as a roundabout way of building social housing ?

Long term leasing is cheaper for their annual budget than building houses themselves

Mic 1972

Cal4567 wrote: »

Not entirely correct. These guys have been acquiring single properties as well as packages. I hear others have been doing too and then putting them together as 'portfolios' for either other investment vehicles or Councils. I agree though at the moment for FTBs, it is probably more sensible to buy second hand.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/solas-living-pays-40m-for-157-homes-across-dublin-and-kildare-1.4530153

They buy second hand only if they can rent long term to the council, which is often not possible inside managed estates or apartment blocks.
I have asked this question to the EAs for the last few month, often cases the long term leasing to council was not an option

Cal4567

Mic 1972 wrote: »

They buy second hand only if they can rent long term to the council, which is often not possible inside managed estates or apartment blocks.
I have asked this question to the EAs for the last few month, often cases the long term leasing to council was not an option

Actually there are a few examples now out there of investment entities taking a double pronged approach. Some stock for PRS, some for social. I'm expecting the media to refer to this at some point, once they dig further. The 'portfolio' which can then be sold on to another private investment firm, could comprise both types of property. Or they keep the stock for their own company needs. Whatever they do, it still all takes out properties that could have suited individual private buyers.

combat14

dundrum shopping centre now also reporting significant problems getting staff and shops wont be able to open full hours as a result ... where have all the workers gone..... have they gone home to their home countries or is there something else a foot..?

jill_valentine

combat14 wrote: »

dundrum shopping centre now also reporting significant problems getting staff and shops wont be able to open full hours as a result ... where have all the workers gone..... have they gone home to their home countries or is there something else a foot..?

I wouldn't be in a massive hurry to work for an industry that could drop me again like a hot snot if there's another global event like this. Certainly not a public facing one until I've been vaccinated, and most would-be retail staff will be more or less last in line for that.

I know a few ex bartenders who were all treated horribly by their bosses when this all kicked off, all except one have found or are seeking work in a different industry altogether now. I expect Press Up and NolaClan in particular to have quite a bit of trouble coaxing many of their former staff back.

Mad_maxx

Sweet.Science wrote: »

I suppose councils need these funds as a roundabout way of building social housing ?

Long term leasing is cheaper for their annual budget than building houses themselves

plus a sizeable chunk of the rent paid out goes back to the state

combat14

Rte reporting tonight that home-builders reveal the staggering increases that have added almost €70,000 to the cost of their house.

what in blazes is happening in this country ....?

how will young people stay here at this rate if this continues and the government dont take voter leds steps to address the housing issue

Hubertj

combat14 wrote: »

Rte reporting tonight that home-builders reveal the staggering increases that have added almost €70,000 to the cost of their house.

what in blazes is happening in this country ....?

how will young people stay here at this rate if this continues and the government dont take voter leds steps to address the housing issue

It’s the same globally. Raw materials have increased in price, supply chain issues, manufacturing, specilation. My brother is a plumber in Boston. Materials have increased in prices and there is up to 6 week waiting time for some basic raw materials. Look at other industries having similar issues - semi conductors, chips etc. Some car manufacturers have had to slow production.

cnocbui

More evidence that investment funds are not essential instigators of property provision:

Investment firm that bought majority of Kildare estate now jointly buys 112-house unit in Dublin
...
The companies plan to rent out all 112 properties when the scheme is finished in early 2022, with the first properties due to completed this month and all homes now available for reservation.

https://extra.ie/2021/05/04/business/property/round-hill-buys-dublin-estate