2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

yagan

Cyrus wrote: »

There are a number of posters in the thread advocating protests etc, i dont think i have seen anyone put forward what they think the property market should look like.

A home buyer should not have to compete against their own government and the rent farming funds. It's not about a new vision, it's about expelling parasitic practices that erode social stability.

Successive governments have treated housing as a casino and not as essential habitat.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the proposed affordable housing bill answered that question. €225k in Co. Tipperary and €450k in the Dublin City (i.e. Cabra).

What accounts for the €225k difference per standard three-bed semi between Dublin and Tipperary? Quality of build? construction salaries? Materials? Land?

It can’t be land as there’s plenty of that all around the city centre and plenty inside the M50.

There is absolutely no reason why developers can’t build for near Co. Tipperary prices in Cabra IMO

And let’s put this €450k ‘affordable’ price in perspective. That’s c. €100k more than Cairn Homes average selling price per unit last year.

thats not an answer to my question.

Cyrus

yagan wrote: »

A home buyer should not have to compete against their own government and the rent farming funds. It's not about a new vision, it's about expelling parasitic practices that erode social stability.

Successive governments have treated housing as a casino and not as essential habitat.

what is your solution?

why are the government buying houses? to house its citizens.

Its all well and good railing about whats happening but what is the solution.

Hubertj

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Paul Gallagher AG and landlord will opine how unlikely to be constitutional any effective measures would be. I would put money on it that the advice he is due to give on restricting funds' ownership of housing will lean in favour of the side which argues against these measures.

https://www.irishlegal.com/article/attorney-general-did-not-submit-written-statement-on-ownership-of-rental-properties

Newstalk breakfast had a law lecturer from TCD on this morning (Rachel Walsh). She suggested there could possibly be constitutional issues around restricting certain people / entities from property and that’s is why they may look to address it through tax measure la in short term. But her opinion was that it would not be unconstitutional although there was a possibility. Worth a listen to get an objective view.

Shelga

Cyrus wrote: »

what is your solution?

why are the government buying houses? to house its citizens.

Its all well and good railing about whats happening but what is the solution.

Why can't local bodies build their own housing, like they used to?

How is paying €600k over 25 years to have nothing at the end of it good for any of us?

Amadan Dubh

Hubertj wrote: »

Newstalk breakfast had a law lecturer from TCD on this morning (Rachel Walsh). She suggested there could possibly be constitutional issues around restricting certain people / entities from property and that’s is why they may look to address it through tax measure la in short term. But her opinion was that it would not be unconstitutional although there was a possibility. Worth a listen to get an objective view.

She has an opinion piece in the IT today on the matter, presumably she was discussing the same views!

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/no-legal-reason-government-can-t-limit-sale-of-new-homes-1.4557567

yagan

Cyrus wrote: »

what is your solution?

why are the government buying houses? to house its citizens.

Its all well and good railing about whats happening but what is the solution.

The government outbid its own voters which in return creates another one for the affordable housing list!

The solution is to stop pumping up prices so less people need social housing, and stopping rent farming funds from buying up completed stock also improves affordability.

A revolution is not needed, but more an enema of a Landlord mindset from Irish politics that games housing for its asset returns rather than its essential function as a home!

Why is this so hard for people to understand? If people lose the belief of ownership in their own country then you beget revolution.

Cyrus

Shelga wrote: »

Why can't local bodies build their own housing, like they used to?

How is paying €600k over 25 years to have nothing at the end of it good for any of us?

i agree, they should be building council houses but that all stopped 20/25 years ago. The lease model is not one i see any sense in. But have the local councils shown any ability to build affordable housing?

But remember if they go and build a load of council houses people will say they are ghettoising areas and all the rest of it.

Cyrus

yagan wrote: »

The government outbid its own voters which in return creates another one for the affordable housing list!

The solution is to stop pumping up prices so less people need social housing, and stopping rent farming funds from buying up completed stock also improves affordability.

A revolution is not needed, but more an enema of a Landlord mindset from Irish politics that games housing for its asset returns rather than its essential function as a home!

Why is this so hard for people to understand? If people lose the belief of ownership in their own country then you beget revolution.

There wont be any revolution.

The argument for years was that we dont have enough institutional landlords and there is no option to rent long term, thats what these funds will provide but now we dont want that either.

So i am asking what do you want?

Galwayhurl

At what point do the government stop taking on leases for social housing? When people see others get a social house by way of council 25 year lease, they too will want to join the queue. Therefore the list has no end. It continues ad infinitum.

Ergo, the competition first time buyers and private renters face will only increase as time goes on. Are the thousands of people on the housing lists all really in need of housing? Whatever happened to paying ones way?

timmyntc

Cyrus wrote: »

There wont be any revolution.

The argument for years was that we dont have enough institutional landlords and there is no option to rent long term, thats what these funds will provide but now we dont want that either.

So i am asking what do you want?

We want the council to stop agreeing long term leases with funds for social housing. That takes supply out of the private market entirely.

The council should self-build on council land - they have the finance to do it and increase supply of property.
Instead they use their finance to either purchase from existing pool of property, or agree 20 year leases for estates, which adds demand and inflates prices.

Hubertj

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

She has an opinion piece in the IT today on the matter, presumably she was discussing the same views!

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/no-legal-reason-government-can-t-limit-sale-of-new-homes-1.4557567

Thank you! I missed which paper they said it would be in. What it does illustrate is that the solution is more complex than some politicians make out. It needs to be done but done properly and should have been done before now.

Amadan Dubh

Cyrus wrote: »

There wont be any revolution.

The argument for years was that we dont have enough institutional landlords and there is no option to rent long term, thats what these funds will provide but now we dont want that either.

So i am asking what do you want?

I thought it was clear from the post;

The solution is to stop pumping up prices so less people need social housing, and stopping rent farming funds from buying up completed stock also improves affordability.

The government has created a market of social housing/rental assistance tenants for private investors - it is a total housing bubble which has spilled into the main housing market. They have done this and continue to do it by competing with individuals in the private market, elbowing them out, which pushes up prices thereby making the private market unaffordable which means people can no longer afford their own home and need to be looked after by the government. Institutionals may have their place in a functioning housing market but definitely do not in a dysfunctional housing market which is what we have.

What's more, there is spillover into the whole market as a result of this ridiculous state of affairs which means that we are in a bubble again. Celtic Tiger house prices are not that far off what we have now; maybe I am missing something but the Celtic Tiger house prices were artificial and based on cheap money in the system which is exactly what we have now. To deny there is a bubble is to deny there was a bubble in Celtic Tiger times!

Strumms

<SNIP>

Cyrus

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I thought it was clear from the post;



The government has created a market of social housing/rental assistance tenants for private investors - it is a total housing bubble which has spilled into the main housing market. They have done this and continue to do it by competing with individuals in the private market, elbowing them out, which pushes up prices thereby making the private market unaffordable which means people can no longer afford their own home and need to be looked after by the government. Institutionals may have their place in a functioning housing market but definitely do not in a dysfunctional housing market which is what we have.

What's more, there is spillover into the whole market as a result of this ridiculous state of affairs which means that we are in a bubble again. Celtic Tiger house prices are not that far off what we have now; maybe I am missing something but the Celtic Tiger house prices were artificial and based on cheap money in the system which is exactly what we have now. To deny there is a bubble is to deny there was a bubble in Celtic Tiger times!

Ok great, so they stop buying existing properties and stop allowing institutions buying property.

Where are the people who require social housing put? the solution given is for the council to start building again (something they havent done in anger in decades) so we want them to build huge social housing estates somewhere around dublin? Itll take forever, itll be expensive and the housing list will grow.

Thats the solution?

MacronvFrugals

So the biggest challenge institutional investors face in Ireland is government intervention making housing more affordable….


https://twitter.com/Aidan_Regan/status/1390598825547550721?s=20

Amadan Dubh

Cyrus wrote: »

Ok great, so they stop buying existing properties and stop allowing institutions buying property.

Where are the people who require social housing put? the solution given is for the council to start building again (something they havent done in anger in decades) so we want them to build huge social housing estates somewhere around dublin? Itll take forever, itll be expensive and the housing list will grow.

Thats the solution?

Around Dublin, in Dublin, around towns outside of Dublin (as not everyone wants or needs to live in Dublin); build housing which will be used for those that require assistance. The thing is, it is expensive but so is the current policy which will continue to grow in cost. But it will make the housing assistance list smaller and lift a lot of people out of poverty. The private market will take care of itself as there are a lot of people who can afford to buy now that are not being allowed to buy due to the supply constraints in the private market, facilitated by the ridiculous policy of blocking new builds hitting the market for FTBs.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i agree, they should be building council houses but that all stopped 20/25 years ago. The lease model is not one i see any sense in. But have the local councils shown any ability to build affordable housing?

But remember if they go and build a load of council houses people will say they are ghettoising areas and all the rest of it.

I don’t think those arguments hold up anymore. Sisk Living built 90 houses for South Dublin county council back in 2018 for c. €180k each.

The ghettoising of areas argument no longer holds up either given that the councils are bulk leasing entire apartment blocks such as Herbert Hill in Dundrum.

Link to Sisk Living Tallaght scheme here: https://www.johnsiskandson.com/news/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght-development-is-one-of-largest-schemes-delivered-this-year-1

timmyntc

Cyrus wrote: »

Ok great, so they stop buying existing properties and stop allowing institutions buying property.

Where are the people who require social housing put? the solution given is for the council to start building again (something they havent done in anger in decades) so we want them to build huge social housing estates somewhere around dublin? Itll take forever, itll be expensive and the housing list will grow.

Thats the solution?

The council dont build directly - its tendered out.
It will be expensive either way - after a 25year lease on a property they will have almost paid the whole value of the property but own nothing. Building makes sense as they get an asset in addition to housing someone. Its called long-term planning.

As for the housing list growing - the housing list will grow either way. In fact it might grow more if they continue to lease and buy properties instead of build, as it pushes rents and house prices up causing more people to *NEED* social housing. The only practical way to reduce social housing lists is to reduce house and rent prices, so that lower income people no longer need a govt provided house and can afford to rent or buy privately.

Your defence of the status quo because there might be some short term pain is a pathetic stance - and its thinking like that thats landed us where we are in the first place. Short term thinking.

TSQ

On prices generally, has anyone noticed that BidX1 has stopped publishing auction prices realised? Used to be you could look at their archived auctions online, but no longer, unless they are available elsewhere. Comparing their reserve prices v. hammer prices used to be a useful resource of gauging the market.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Ok great, so they stop buying existing properties and stop allowing institutions buying property.

Where are the people who require social housing put? the solution given is for the council to start building again (something they havent done in anger in decades) so we want them to build huge social housing estates somewhere around dublin? Itll take forever, itll be expensive and the housing list will grow.

Thats the solution?

The solution is to concentrate on allocating our housing resources efficiently.

As long as we have sky high levels of mortgage default, vacancies, underoccupancy etc it is clear that we are wasting resources.

The market is clogged up and the aim should be to increase turnover of existing stock to reduce these inefficiencies.

We could start by repossessing, filling vacancies and disincentivising underoccupancy.

Billythekid19

Galwayhurl wrote: »

At what point do the government stop taking on leases for social housing? When people see others get a social house by way of council 25 year lease, they too will want to join the queue. Therefore the list has no end. It continues ad infinitum.

Ergo, the competition first time buyers and private renters face will only increase as time goes on. Are the thousands of people on the housing lists all really in need of housing? Whatever happened to paying ones way?

The 25 year lease makes full sense when a government is trying to balance its books while at the helm over a 4 year term. Why eat into your council budget and spend 600,000 on building an apartment in one go when the council can spend 24,000 a year leasing it off a developer. Bottom line is our politicians have a short term view, and really couldn't care less if it is to the detriment of achieving economies of scale in the long run.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think those arguments hold up anymore. Sisk Living built 90 houses for South Dublin county council back in 2018 for c. €180k each.

The ghettoising of areas argument no longer holds up either given that the councils are bulk leasing entire apartment blocks such as Herbert Hill in Dundrum.

Link to Sisk Living Tallaght scheme here: https://www.johnsiskandson.com/news/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght-development-is-one-of-largest-schemes-delivered-this-year-1

you have linked that sisk tallaght scheme about 1000 times now, just get it tatooed on your face and be done with it

if that can be done then why isnt it being done, it would be cheaper than any of the other solutions being pursued.

Maybe Sisk can make more money doing other things now?

Regarding the leasing of the dundrum scheme you are conflating two different things.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

The solution is to concentrate on allocating our housing resources efficiently.

As long as we have sky high levels of mortgage default, vacancies, underoccupancy etc it is clear that we are wasting resources.

The market is clogged up and the aim should be to increase turnover of existing stock to reduce these inefficiencies.

We could start by repossessing, filling vacancies and disincentivising underoccupancy.

i agree,

but wait for the outrage if we ever start repossessing in anger, people wont want that either.

Shelga

Would be good to see how many people are on social housing waiting lists and the various reasons for this- how many are on it just because the open market price of housing is so astronomical?

Is there really such a high number of people who qualify for social housing? What is it in DCC, for example?

JDigweed

I think we need to revisit our idea of what social and government built housing should be. There's is a huge percentage of middle earners now that cannot afford a home at the current prices. It's time the councils start looking after us aswell. If they get the mix of low income and middle income right in a development, and have a zero tolerance policy with anti social tenants, they could create communities instead of plonking random people here and there while hoping everything will work out.

Bass Reeves

Shelga wrote: »

Why can't local bodies build their own housing, like they used to?

The main reason is gettoization if those on social and maybe even affordable housing lists. We have had this and it has caused too many issue. The Balkymuns, Knocknaheenies, Moyross's the .10-20 houses build in one village as the Dates of this world have none.

The other issue is there is a finate size to the building industry. Just because the LA's decide to build houses will not increase the overall number build. It might actually decrease supply as public service inefficiency could slow the numbers build.

We have over the last twenty years increased the specification on houses and this had added to cost. As well costs will be higher in Dublin than elsewhere for tradespeople and time inefficiency effects costs. Disks building costs in 2018 could not compare to what they would quite now

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i agree,

but wait for the outrage if we ever start repossessing in anger, people wont want that either.

That's the problem. The government are afraid of the outrage. But there is outrage now so what is the difference?

It's just outrage from different quarters but so what?

Shelga

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0301/1200139-housing-dublin/#:~:text=past%20two%20years.-,Latest%20figures%20show%20there%20were%2014%2C672%20applications%20for%20social%20housing,that%20time%20amounts%20to%2026%25.

Ok, so there were 14,672 people on the list for housing in Dublin city in January 2020- presume that means total number of people on the list, not just the number of people who've applied in 1 year! I sure hope so anyway.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/sales-of-houses-and-apartments-fall-4-overall-1.4130984#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20registered%20sales,decrease%20of%208.1%20per%20cent.

There were 17, 140 property sales in Dublin in 2019. Ok so it seems social housing is a considerable portion of the market alright... but would be interested to see how many properties DCC bought on the open market in 2019.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

That's the problem. The government are afraid of the outrage. But there is outrage now so what is the difference?

It's just outrage from different quarters but so what?

They need an outrage gauge to determine what will cause greater outrage.