Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings

munchkin_utd · 30-04-2021 03:56PM

charlie14 wrote: »

How so ?
The H.S.E. is quoting vaccinated numbers using the same metric the U.K. did on their 50% for the start of phased re-opening are they not!!

I'll quote the boss....

“Biggest day yet in the #CovidVaccine rollout yesterday with 41,500 doses given out,” the Taoiseach tweeted.

It amounts to more than the equivalent of 1 per cent of the adult population of 3.8 million receiving a dose in a single day.

Micheál Martin said 25 per cent of eligible adults have so far received their first dose (948,000) while 10 per cent were fully vaccinated with two doses (381,000).

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-five-further-deaths-and-461-new-cases-reported-as-a-quarter-of-adults-get-first-vaccine-1.4546874

For herd immunity you need to count kids and infants, not only "eligible adults"

30-04-2021 04:02PM

Graham wrote: »

I suppose you could think that.

I can't imagine why but there you go.

Conveniently dodged the second half of my question. They are irrelevant in that context.

sporina · 30-04-2021 04:23PM

i assume hotels can serve food/beer to residents?

charlie14 · 30-04-2021 04:25PM

munchkin_utd wrote: »

I'll quote the boss....

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-five-further-deaths-and-461-new-cases-reported-as-a-quarter-of-adults-get-first-vaccine-1.4546874

For herd immunity you need to count kids and infants, not only "eligible adults"

Herd immunity is a totally different matter. That would be the ideal level to get to asap, but it has nothing to do with us re-opening based on the same phased re-opening as the U.K.

The U.K. 50% is based on their adult population, not their total population. Same metric we are using here.

Two days ago Ireland had administered 1,067,378 first doses and 419,665 second. That is over 28% of our adult population first dose and 11% second. I do not see by the end of the week that 28% figure will not be as near as makes no difference to 30%
With supply now being more reliable I really do see us being below that 50% level of the U.K. five weeks later when outdoor dining and outdoor pub service opens on June 7th.

charlie14 · 30-04-2021 04:31PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We ain’t scientific pioneers, we’ve been the globes most suppressed & cautious nation for 14 months

Why the change?

The moneys gone

Simple as

And eh, we are reopening to align with the rest of the world, not become more relaxed

Eh, we are reopening in line with the scientific data. It`s nothing to do with what the rest of the world may decide to chance their arm on.

Simple as

paddyisreal · 30-04-2021 04:40PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Paddy like a few others you are probably spending to much time here and have become unaware of how the real world is. Presently we are at 30% first dose and 11% second vaccinated.

Myself and a few others have been saying that the science for phased re-opening was there in the U.K. data for anyone who wished to see it.
Their phased re-opening for outdoor dining and outdoor pub service was based on a 50% first dose vaccination level. By June 7th. I`m confident we will have reached that percentage level or even higher.

But there are numerous restrictions being lifted on the 10th of may when we will not be within an arses roar of 50 percent and that's a fact of the real world as you call it. You have changed the position to 50 percent for outdoor dining

Stormyteacup · 30-04-2021 04:56PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Eh, we are reopening in line with the scientific data. It`s nothing to do with what the rest of the world may decide to chance their arm on.

Simple as

And if the plan had been more protracted and resembled kite flying over the past few weeks, the reopening would still be in line with the scientific data.

Really doesn’t seem to matter what NPHET decide to recommend, they will be spot on and perfectly in line with scientific data.

Graham · 30-04-2021 05:28PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We ain’t scientific pioneers, we’ve been the globes most suppressed & cautious nation for 14 months

Why the change?

The moneys gone

Simple as

And eh, we are reopening to align with the rest of the world, not become more relaxed

Yeah, that must be it.

We're definitely, absolutely, one hundred percent not relaxing restrictions because we have manageable case numbers, low hospitalisations, lower death rates and a vaccination program.

Absolutely not.

No Sireee.

No way.

Better

scamalert · 30-04-2021 05:35PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

And if the plan had been more protracted and resembled kite flying over the past few weeks, the reopening would still be in line with the scientific data.

Really doesn’t seem to matter what NPHET decide to recommend, they will be spot on and perfectly in line with scientific data.

i think in the big picture nphet are done, wont matter much what they talk anymore, in May we should see more vaccines then needed come in, so none of the excuses to holdfirm take it easy will dictate anything, as imagine gov have to look at the cost eventually and that will be greater disaster for all of us, but its topic for another thread.

Stormyteacup · 30-04-2021 05:37PM

Graham wrote: »

Yeah, that must be it.

We're definitely, absolutely, one hundred percent not relaxing restrictions because we have manageable case numbers, low hospitalisations, lower death rates and a vaccination program.

Absolutely not.

No Sireee.

No way.

Better

We had those weeks ago.

If we were waiting to see what happened in UK, was that a secret? What use were Philip Nolan’s highly scientific data-filled models in that case? Apparently forecasting easing of restrictions is hugely complex and a myriad of factors have a bearing.

But actually it was - UK seem okay, we’re good to go.

Graham · 30-04-2021 05:39PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

And if the plan had been more protracted and resembled kite flying over the past few weeks, the reopening would still be in line with the scientific data.

Really doesn’t seem to matter what NPHET decide to recommend, they will be spot on and perfectly in line with scientific data.

You understand that there's no scientific data calendar with a set reopening date and time don't you? That we've collected more data over the last few weeks. That we've been able to monitor the impact of restrictions being eased in the UK.

Graham · 30-04-2021 05:41PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

We had those weeks ago.

and what did we do?

Relax restrictions

Monitored the impact

Relaxed the restrictions some more

Stormyteacup · 30-04-2021 05:41PM

scamalert wrote: »

i think in the big picture nphet are done, wont matter much what they talk anymore, in May we should see more vaccines then needed come in, so none of the excuses to holdfirm take it easy will dictate anything, as imagine gov have to look at the cost eventually and that will be greater disaster for all of us, but its topic for another thread.

I agree. About time too. Once normality is resuming they are relegated back to an advisory committee and not the main event running the show. The government will be mopping up for a long time though.

Dempo1 · 30-04-2021 05:41PM

Just saw a playback of the NPHET news conference, I can't see Dr. Houlihan getting the freedom of Donegal, anytime soon.

Stormyteacup · 30-04-2021 05:46PM

Graham wrote: »

and what did we do?

Relax restrictions

Monitored the impact

Relaxed the restrictions some more

Well Graham that recipe you have there would apply to a 24 month easing of restrictions and to a 2 month easing of restrictions. But yes we have all the money and time in the world when it comes to easing of restrictions.

Graham · 30-04-2021 05:49PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

But yes we have all the money and time in the world when it comes to easing of restrictions.

I hadn't realised these things come at a price. We should definitely tell that pandemic thingy to hurry things along.

In seriousness, there is no quick, easy, cheap way out of a pandemic. It takes as long as it takes and costs what it costs. One fantastic achievement we've witnessed so far is the unprecedented speed of vaccine development.

gozunda · 30-04-2021 05:52PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

Yeah really the science you and a few others here were quoting up to 2 days ago saying we have to wait till we had 50 percent vaccinations done. That fairly went out the window didn't it

Except afaik no one did. I know replied to one comment regarding 50% vaccination (based on the UK, Israel etc) as the possible min for a total re-opening. But apparently they weren't even happy with the fact we were already rolling back restrictions!

Amazing how stuff gets legs around here. Like I dunno saying scenes coming out of India were horrific or wtte and ending up being blamed for trying to get people locked up forever amongst other crimes against humanity...

Chinese whispers as it were but whispers that spouted multiple legs and were last seen climbing feking Carrauntoohil!

copeyhagen · 30-04-2021 05:53PM

Graham wrote: »

and what did we do?

Relax restrictions

Monitored the impact

Relaxed the restrictions some more

what was eased and monitored, the 5km (that people werent sticking to anyway) to 10km?

lol

Graham · 30-04-2021 05:54PM

copeyhagen wrote: »

what was eased and monitored, the 5km (that people werent sticking to anyway) to 10km?

lol

The restrictions and easing of are public record, Google will help.

You might start with schools reopening and work from there.

Stormyteacup · 30-04-2021 06:00PM

Graham wrote: »

I hadn't realised these things come at a price. We should definitely tell that pandemic thingy to hurry things along.

In seriousness, there is no quick, easy, cheap way out of a pandemic. It takes as long as it takes and costs what it costs. One fantastic achievement we've witnessed so far is the unprecedented speed of vaccine development.

Had you not? It has been discussed at length in this thread at least.

Cost/benefit analysis will be topical some time this year I reckon.

You sound like you have experience of the way out of a pandemic. Really though - ‘it takes as long as it takes and costs what it costs’?? So, no variation in countries’ debts racked up? Speed of vaccine development is a testament to scientific progression, we agree on that at least.

charlie14 · 30-04-2021 06:09PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

But there are numerous restrictions being lifted on the 10th of may when we will not be within an arses roar of 50 percent and that's a fact of the real world as you call it. You have changed the position to 50 percent for outdoor dining

Not really.
You`re contention, and that of a few other on the governments hand being forced by NI until, now was on outdoor dining and pubs.
That is happening here on 7th. June when I expect we will have reached at least the 50% level.
Nothing much on the 10th of May that involves any level of people being in the same place at the same time. More a bit of a sweetener of encouragement for people that opening up is going ahead than much else imo

charlie14 · 30-04-2021 06:17PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

And if the plan had been more protracted and resembled kite flying over the past few weeks, the reopening would still be in line with the scientific data.

Really doesn’t seem to matter what NPHET decide to recommend, they will be spot on and perfectly in line with scientific data.

You do know don`t you how basically the timeline for this virus works ?
If there is a spike in infections it will show with new cases within 14 days more or less.
The U.K. began phased opening based on first dose of 50% 19 days ago. I would very much doubt NPHET were unaware of any of that when they made their recommendation to government.

vid36 · 30-04-2021 06:19PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Herd immunity is a totally different matter. That would be the ideal level to get to asap, but it has nothing to do with us re-opening based on the same phased re-opening as the U.K.

The U.K. 50% is based on their adult population, not their total population. Same metric we are using here.

.

The UK 50% is based on their total population not just adult population. Over 34 million first doses.

Boggles · 30-04-2021 06:25PM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1388151707520151559

Folly can be expensive.

Dempo1 · 30-04-2021 06:26PM

Not a popular opinion but here goes.

Something has changed dramatically with NPHET, Dr. Houlihan was aghast over those naughty people in Donegal claiming incidents rate is 3 times national average. Whilst I know he was on leave, perhaps he's not aware other counties, especially offaly were far worse only 2 weeks ago.

Media, government seem hell bent ignoring school outbreaks and closures of which there's been many, 4 Schools in Tullamore in the past 2 weeks.

New cases are not diminishing, today well over 500, oddly enough the same levels that Dr Glynn and professor Nolan said were far too high less than 2 weeks ago????

Let's be honest, the vacinne roll out less than inspiring, 27 changes to date, yes supply was an issue but I fear ineptitude closer to home has not helped. Apparently they are now thinking, vaccinate 40"s & 50"s at the same time, they haven't even started the 60"s yet. All well and good registering but when will they actually start? Seems to me this registration thing, just a ploy to appease growing frustrations, its meaningless if people are not getting vaccinated.

My humble sense is the new secretary General of the department of health is now calling the shots (no pun intended). Mr Watt, remember him and the outrageous salary. He's a money man, certainly no medical experience.

My sense is Government have actually eliminated a plan B if this goes pear shaped. All well and good Tony Houlihan saying its time to move on, the problem is, we've actually not moved at all. Hospital numbers painfully slow to reduce and ICU figures low, both great to see reductions but they are the only real positives.

So, Given NPHET"s and Tony Houlihans ultra cautious approach over the past 13 months, what's actually behind this sudden relaxing and positivity & dare I say ceasing all restrictions. I just hope it doesn't go Tits up, government won't get away with blaming a variant like they did after the last free for all at Christmas.

Dempo1 · 30-04-2021 06:34PM

sporina wrote: »

i assume hotels can serve food/beer to residents?

Not sure about beers but certainly hotels have never stopped serving food to residents

Stormyteacup · 30-04-2021 06:37PM

charlie14 wrote: »

You do know don`t you how basically the timeline for this virus works ?
If there is a spike in infections it will show with new cases within 14 days more or less.
The U.K. began phased opening based on first dose of 50% 19 days ago. I would very much doubt NPHET were unaware of any of that when they made their recommendation to government.

Yes that’s the timeline generally accepted, except here where our government are happier with six week reviews;

‘Taoiseach Micheál Martin says the Government will decide in the week leading into April 5th on the level of restrictions that will apply for the following six weeks’

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/martin-says-government-will-review-covid-19-restrictions-first-week-of-april-1.4506741%3fmode=amp

Follow the science.

Penfailed · 30-04-2021 06:52PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Ah the ridiculous "conspiracy theory" dismissal eh? :rolleyes:

Holohan has a long standing problem with alcohol consumption and has successfully managed to create a two-tier pub system where "wet" pubs (a nonsense term if ever I've heard one) have been discriminated against in favour of "gastro" pubs - and even then he's managed to impose such limits on them that reopening in the current phase probably won't be worthwhile (like the publican on the 6.1news last night talking about his beer garden of 20 seats).

Then you have the Greens and DCC putting in new traffic restrictions everywhere using the "crisis" as a way to push them in (supporting outdoor dining /more cycling etc etc)

And even here we have people arguing that mask wearing as a permanent thing in some settings isn't a big deal and using "de safety" argument :rolleyes:

Feel free now to pick one line out of the above or a "witty" response that deliberately ignores the point now.

How did Holohan manage to create a two tier pub system in the north?

Imagine trying to promote and facilitate a safer place for cycling. The horror.

The sooner masks are consigned to the bin, the better.

Zebra3 · 30-04-2021 06:55PM

“It’s all based on scientific data”.

Theatres and cinemas opening up start of June.

But not even 5% of sports venues’ capacities can be used.

Imagine trotting out that line. Embarrassed for some people.

Penfailed · 30-04-2021 06:56PM

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

I made a few enquiries on booking.com, in fairness i didnt notice any major price gouging. I had boked a few places provisionally last June weekend so i compared prices, very slight increase, in the 5% region so definitely not inflated

An increase of 5% is inflated.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings