Green Party disintegration / split

Chips Lovell · 27-04-2021 12:23pm

I don't know. Despite the dire predictions last time around, nobody was expelled, nobody left, and no splinter party emerged.

I reckon that they'll select Chu, who probably won't win, but will be regarded as a success if she raises her profile further.

Blut2 · 27-04-2021 12:26pm

If Chu hadn't gone on that ego-driven solo run for the Seanad she'd be looking reasonably OK odds for a seat here. She must be regretting that now.

I wouldn't put it past her to run as an IND and split the Green vote.

Brussels Sprout · 27-04-2021 1:40pm

I presume that the Greens will have to ask their voters to continue their transfers for FF & FG since it's in their best interest to have a stable coalition. I can't imagine Chu going along with that though.

[Deleted User] · 27-04-2021 1:42pm

can an by-election be held safely with covid restrictions

Wouldnt be suprised,if this was let idle until september

Brussels Sprout · 27-04-2021 6:49pm

Blaaz_ wrote: »

can an by-election be held safely with covid restrictions

Wouldnt be suprised,if this was let idle until september

I think it has to be held within 6 months and governments tend to use most of that time so it'll likely be in the late Autumn. By then hopefully every adult who wants to will be vaccinated.

Augme · 27-04-2021 6:58pm

It's a fascinating situation. If she does go for it I do wonder if she will then replace Eamonn Ryan on the ticket in the next general election. Especially if she got elected. They wouldn't have a chance of electing two candidates in a full election and then the risk of splitting the vote so both miss out would be too big a risk you'd feel.

Blut2 · 27-04-2021 7:05pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I think it has to be held within 6 months and governments tend to use most of that time so it'll likely be in the late Autumn. By then hopefully every adult who wants to will be vaccinated.

The last possible dates for it according to Gavan Reilly on Twitter are Friday Nov 19th/Sat Nov 20th. I'd assume given FG will be favourites to retain the seat they'll hold it before then, though.

I'd guess August personally - likely the lowest corona prevalence point of the year, and a chunk of students/young people will be away on holiday then after the EU Green Certificate comes in. Which should help reduce the SF and Green votes, the only two likely rivals for taking the seat from FG.

tabby aspreme · 27-04-2021 7:08pm

Ivan's Bacik is looking for the Labour nomination, it would be an interesting debate between herself and Chu, as too which of them deserves the women's, desendents of immigrants etc, vote.

Brussels Sprout · 27-04-2021 7:10pm

Augme wrote: »

It's a fascinating situation. If she does go for it I do wonder if she will then replace Eamonn Ryan on the ticket in the next general election. Especially if she got elected. They wouldn't have a chance of electing two candidates in a full election and then the risk of splitting the vote so both miss out would be too big a risk you'd feel.

Where's Eamon Ryan going? He's only 57!

tabby aspreme · 27-04-2021 7:37pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Where's Eamon Ryan going? He's only 57!

He'll be 60 by the time of the next election, he could retire with a nice pension and tend his south facing window boxes

joebloggs32 · 27-04-2021 9:54pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I think it has to be held within 6 months and governments tend to use most of that time so it'll likely be in the late Autumn. By then hopefully every adult who wants to will be vaccinated.

If a government party wants to win they should be aiming for late September.
The vaccination program should have done tge heavy lifting by then and there might be a feelgood factor in tbe country.
However waiting until a budget is unveiled could be problematic as the money tree is definitely going to shed some of its leaves next year.

Augme · 27-04-2021 10:35pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Where's Eamon Ryan going? He's only 57!

Off the back of his best results he just scrapped a leadership vote. He's on the down turn and I would the surprised if he takes the chance to get out. Or even is told to get out.

Strategically, if Chu does get a seat this time around you want her on the ticket next time given her age and ability to cementing as a long term candidate there.

magicbastarder · 28-04-2021 12:31pm

blanch152 wrote: »

It certainly makes the subject of this thread less likely. While the Greens will shed members at the fringes, it is clear the solid core of the party backs the current approach.

i'm sure it's been covered in the thread before, but the green party (to a usually green party voting outsider) seems to be two different parties now. one is the older (probably more battle hardened) cohort, and then there's the new cohort of members, who have a broader focus on social justice than the 'traditional' greens.
but as is the wont of activist and lefty parties, they focus on their differences, rather than focussing on their common ground, and splitting over them.

and the funny thing is that despite having an awful habit of washing their dirty linen in public, the greens are delivering a lot of what they campaigned for; but many supporters forget they didn't actually win the election, and cannot do everything they might have wanted.

Blut2 · 28-04-2021 2:50pm

^ Chu's run for the Seanad is the perfect example of that. All the focus that week should have been glowing feel good coverage on the Green's achieving a big win on the environment, and implementing part of their election manifesto, with the Climate Action Bill. Instead it was all coverage/focus on Chu's ego-driven solo-run and the bickering between the different wings in the party about it.

Ask a neutral observer about happenings in the last few months for the Green's and all you'll hear about is drama about Chu, and very little about the Climate Action Bill. Which is a disaster for the party's popularity with the wider public.

magicbastarder · 28-04-2021 2:57pm

one story, which seems to have been almost universally missed, is this; happened under ryan's tenure, but i'm not 100% if he's responsible.
it's the 2c per litre levied on fuel to maintain ireland's 90 day stockpile, but any excess over and above what is actually spent is now ringfenced for the climate action fund:

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/3718f-nora-levy-legislation-passes-in-the-dail/

awec · 28-04-2021 3:46pm

Blut2 wrote: »

^ Chu's run for the Seanad is the perfect example of that. All the focus that week should have been glowing feel good coverage on the Green's achieving a big win on the environment, and implementing part of their election manifesto, with the Climate Action Bill. Instead it was all coverage/focus on Chu's ego-driven solo-run and the bickering between the different wings in the party about it.

Ask a neutral observer about happenings in the last few months for the Green's and all you'll hear about is drama about Chu, and very little about the Climate Action Bill. Which is a disaster for the party's popularity with the wider public.

It's not just Chu.

Catherine Martin, Saoirse McHugh and others have all played their part in damaging the GP.

PeadarCo · 28-04-2021 3:47pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

i'm sure it's been covered in the thread before, but the green party (to a usually green party voting outsider) seems to be two different parties now. one is the older (probably more battle hardened) cohort, and then there's the new cohort of members, who have a broader focus on social justice than the 'traditional' greens.
but as is the wont of activist and lefty parties, they focus on their differences, rather than focussing on their common ground, and splitting over them.

and the funny thing is that despite having an awful habit of washing their dirty linen in public, the greens are delivering a lot of what they campaigned for; but many supporters forget they didn't actually win the election, and cannot do everything they might have wanted.

But has that not been the problem for all the smaller parties in coalitions. For their supporters it's generally been a case of they haven't done instead of what they have done. Going into coalition means you are limited in what you can achieve because you have a coalition partner you have to compromise with. For smaller parties it's an issue because while they can achieve more in government than in opposition its easier to sit on the sidelines are complain. Also smaller parties are more likely to be more ideological driven enabled by a smaller and less diverse support base.

It's been the challenge for every small party in Irish coalitions.

magicbastarder · 28-04-2021 3:49pm

yes, but i think it was exacerbated for the greens by the significant change in the party base in the few years leading to that election.

Blut2 · 28-04-2021 5:20pm

awec wrote: »

It's not just Chu.

Catherine Martin, Saoirse McHugh and others have all played their part in damaging the GP.

Thats absolutely true. My point though was more just relating to recent happenings specifically.

Sam Russell · 04-05-2021 4:07pm

Why is Eamonn Ryam not out there announcing and explaining the Metrolink project and how it will revolutionise PT in Dublin, and how he is accelerating its provision? He should be pushing the Limerick to Limerick Junction double tracking and provision of better rail connection from Cork to Limerick, and Limerick to Dublin. He should be committing to the Cork Limerick M20 project.

Instead he is talking about the likes of the Athenry to Tuam railway.

The GP now has a definite membership looking for social justice - and he is not part of that cohort.

[Deleted User] · 10-05-2021 12:14am

magicbastarder wrote: »

i'm sure it's been covered in the thread before, but the green party (to a usually green party voting outsider) seems to be two different parties now. one is the older (probably more battle hardened) cohort, and then there's the new cohort of members, who have a broader focus on social justice than the 'traditional' greens.
but as is the wont of activist and lefty parties, they focus on their differences, rather than focussing on their common ground, and splitting over them.

and the funny thing is that despite having an awful habit of washing their dirty linen in public, the greens are delivering a lot of what they campaigned for; but many supporters forget they didn't actually win the election, and cannot do everything they might have wanted.

As a former GP member, I found three broad divisions within the party

1) The pre-2007 people who stayed around despite disliking Eamon Ryan, disliking the deal the GPs got when entering government with FF, and especially disliking staying in government so long when Gormley/etc wanted out but Ryan spent all his internal capital on convincing the party to stay in. This effectively killed the party as a force in Irish Politics/a force for Environmentalism in Ireland for a decade, but instead of Eamon Ryan getting oppobrium for his driving role in it - he gets lauded for 'sticking with the Greens'

2) The Eamon Ryan supporters
2a) Hardcore supporters who draw no distinction between Ryan and the GP. To them they are the one and the same thing, and yes there is a significant cult of personality within the party where any even milquetoast criticism of Ryan is met with harsh attack.
2b) Well-meaning but not particularly environmental-policy informed types who like the feelgood feeling of being a member, but don't actually want to learn anything about environmental (or any other kind of) policy. They support Ryan because his narrative also makes them feel good. They always acted like anything a GP politician did was inherently the right choice, and any agreement the GP signed up to was likewise the right choice - because the GP was good so anything it or it's politicians did was also good.

3) The young social justice types who live and die on twitter. They're just as uninformed as 2b) but with an arrogance and condescension that's pretty breathtaking for a group that mostly used internal whatsapp groups for posting tweets and asking for likes/retweets. I still see some of the names pop up in newspapers articles and I can see that they have a long and successful career in working in NGOs with no clear purpose or mission but that uses all the fashionable buzzwords to tackle its ill-defined social mission.

Outside that, I also met many individuals who were deeply knowledgeable and incredibly passionate about many aspects of environmentalism and social justice, but they were almost one-and-all only in the party for lack of any other place to be - policy has always been largely ignored by actual Green Party politicians, despite the GP having some really talented and intelligent people who have spent years working on such.

magicbastarder · 10-05-2021 8:49am

i think i could make a punt as to which group you'd slot into?

[Deleted User] · 10-05-2021 11:46am

None, I was only a member for just over a year and a portion of that was during covid. I hadn't been involving in politics in any way since the heydays of the recession and I figured I'd dip my toe in anticipation of the the GE scheduled for last year, do a bit of canvassing etc etc etc. Happy to have gotten involved rather than 'hurling from the ditch' but am also happy I left the party when I did (and not because of the PFG or anything like that).

Brussels Sprout · 10-05-2021 12:20pm

Wetasanotter wrote: »

None, I was only a member for just over a year and a portion of that was during covid. I hadn't been involving in politics in any way since the heydays of the recession and I figured I'd dip my toe in anticipation of the the GE scheduled for last year, do a bit of canvassing etc etc etc. Happy to have gotten involved rather than 'hurling from the ditch' but am also happy I left the party when I did (and not because of the PFG or anything like that).

From what you saw in your team in the party do you think there will be a split or do how do you think the future will go for the party (I presume you're not too positive about it since you left).

[Deleted User] · 10-05-2021 12:26pm

There's only space for one 'green' party in Ireland, and even if the GP isn't as green as I'd like it to be, it's still the only one we're going to have - I think most people in the party accepted that. Outside of the Just Transition types, the people I know who left, left being involved in politics in general - and I personally don't think the JTG has any future. Politics in Ireland exists outside of twitter/social media, but they don't seem to realise that.

I'm more worried about another electoral wipeout and not having even a subpar voice for environmental policies in the Irish political sphere - better the GP than no-one and we really lost out in the 2010s having no-one outside of small NGOs to argue for environmental policies and a climate-friendly future.

magicbastarder · 10-05-2021 12:37pm

i don't know if it will make a difference, but the dynamic of the coalition is slightly different this time; they took a lot of flak for the FF coalition, and FF successfully used them as sandbags.
this time, it may be that FF and FG turn on each other with SF being their main bogeyman, come the next election.

the greens will suffer, no doubt, but i'm not sure to what extent compared to last time. but if they're clever, they'll try to spin the blame off as an FF vs FG thing.

[Deleted User] · 10-05-2021 12:40pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

the greens will suffer, no doubt, but i'm not sure to what extent compared to last time. but if they're clever, they'll try to spin the blame off as an FF vs FG thing.

So far, the evidence is they're pretty gormless at playing coalition politics imho. I think that's one area Catherine would be better at than Eamon, though I'm not sure how much (if at all) better she'd be in other areas.

magicbastarder · 10-05-2021 12:44pm

i don't think they're particularly good at politics in general. as in the horse trading, somewhat machiavellian style ireland is used to.

Brussels Sprout · 10-05-2021 12:49pm

I think they've also learned from their past spell in government. Last time around the contribution that most people seem to associate them with is tinkering with car & fuel taxes that were not popular. This time around they're pumping a lot of money into bike lanes and greenways - things that can be created relatively quickly and are seen by most prospective Green voters as a Public Good. Of course they also have the unfortunate in-built advantage that climate breakdown and environmental damage is going to continue to get worse in very visible ways for the foreseeable future.

The German green party also got wiped out at one point and now they are leading the polls. The English Greens did excellently in the local elections (despite an electoral system that makes it extremely difficult for smaller parties to break through).

I don't think there is any chance of the Irish Greens being wiped out again in the manner of 2011.

Blut2 · 10-05-2021 12:49pm

The Greens should be safer from collapse this time because theres no real middle-class middle of the road left wing party for their voters to move to. Back in 2011 they jumped wholesale to Labour. But Labour are in the doldrums at the moment and the SocDems are far too badly run (and SJW issue obsessed in a lot of people's minds) to capitalize. And SF and PBP etc too hard left.

They'll lose a few fringe seats, but the core seats like Eamon Ryans in Dublin Bay South, Catherine Martin in Rathdown and a few of the other leafier Dublin ones like Ossian Smyth in Dun Laoghaire should all survive. Worst case scenario they should keep 6ish of their current 12 seats unless something shocking happens.

Green Party disintegration / split

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